Amph Summer Season Box Office

The summer movie lineup is almost on us, with Tom Cruise's Oblivion launching the season in a few weeks. These are my rough predictions for worldwide box office, in millions. Monsters University and Iron Man 3 are in my view the only summer releases with any predictable potential of closing in on $1 billion. I give World War Z the highest odds of being the biggest commercial flop of the summer.


21-Jun: Monsters University $850
3-May: Iron Man 3 $800
3-Jul: Despicable Me 2 $700
19-Apr: Oblivion $650
7-Jun : After Earth $600
17-May : Star Trek into Darkness $550
19-Jun : Man of Steel $390
26-Jul : The Wolverine $385
12-Jul Pacific Rim $350
9-Aug: Elysium $350
21-Jun : World War Z $300

 

21-Jun: Monsters University - this will meet expectations and perform well. not toy story 3 money, but better than cars2
3-May: Iron Man 3 - the avengers hooked everyone. It's going to be a beast.
3-Jul: Despicable Me 2 - mild success because its a kids movie, monsters u will beat it
19-Apr: Oblivion - Tom cruise and Morgan freeman together spells success. Eh movie with big money made.
7-Jun : After Earth - will smith is a huge draw. I think this is going to be big
17-May : Star Trek into Darkness - big money, but I think it will not be as big as they hope
19-Jun : Man of Steel this is the toughest call. Snyder can't be trusted. But being backed by Nolan could be huge. I think it will be huge.
26-Jul : The Wolverine average money, ppl were burned by origins
12-Jul Pacific Rim - I desperately want this to be huge, but I fear it will be a let down
9-Aug: Elysium - flop
21-Jun : World War Z - won't be a flop thanks to zombies and brad Pitt, but won't be a monster

 

Iron Man 3 is unlikely to be much better than Iron Man 2 in terms of quality, but it will definitely get some kind of Avengers box office bump.

 

I think After Earth is a sleeper to make some huge money. WIll Smith is a big draw.

 

21-Jun: Monsters University - this movie is going to perform so well martha stewart will literally die when she sees the numbers.
3-May: Iron Man 3 - an actual gate to hell will open due to the box office success of this film.
3-Jul: Despicable Me 2 - jesus will return just to see this movie. it's going to do great.
19-Apr: Oblivion - i've heard word that this film is going to be mandatory viewing in china, thus automatically making it the most successful film of all time.
7-Jun : After Earth - the draw of will smith is going to affect the earth's gravity, leading to several weeks of horrible natural disasters.
17-May : Star Trek into Darkness - the enormous success of this film will lead to a revitalization of america's space program and humanity's eventual conquest of the universe.
19-Jun : Man of Steel - millions will go deaf due to the thunderous stampede of people rushing to see this film.
26-Jul : The Wolverine - people of earth will finally break free of their years long battle with depression as they are reunited with hugh jackman's sideburns. innovation will skyrocket.
12-Jul: Pacific Rim - finally the giant mech things nobody knew they were waiting for. guilllermo del toro is cemented as the greatest man to ever live.
9-Aug: Elysium - i have no idea what this is.
21-Jun : World War Z - people ****ing love zombies. this movie is going to make their hearts explode.

 

Elysium.starring Matt Damon, is Neill Blomkamp's follow-up to District 9.

 

MIB 3 underperformed, and it's directed by M. Night who hasn't made a watchable movie since Signs. I watch The Village for a good laugh or two, but that one doesn't count.

 

the happening is way, way funnier than the village.

 

I haven't seen that one yet, but I have watched the part where Marky Mark talks to a plant. Such great acting by a master thespian.

 

Brad Pitt and Will Smith have both staked a lot in their movies. Shyamalan could not possibly have screwed up Last Airbender more.

 

The new Man of Steel trailer is really good. Russell Crowe as Jor El - did not see that one coming.

 

Ouch. Remember, a Superman film has to make 500 million or it's a failure!

 

Oblivion has a 58% on RT. If you apply the standard sci fi handicap to it, that's about the equivalent of a 75% RT score. So, I'm definitely going tonight.

 

Really? I'm expecting much better than IM2 since IM2 sucked that much.

 

Just one of those things about movie franchises. The first one is good because everything clicked. But don't ever expect a sequel to be any good. Every once in a while, audiences get ESB lucky. But mostly, they get Highlander 2 lucky.

 

I can't decide if R.I.P.D. looks awful or not.

 

There's always Zombieland: the series available only on Amazon. That should be good.

 

And Arrested Development season 4 on Netflix.

 

After Earth has been moved up to May 31. So it opens a week after Trek and two weeks before Man of Steel. I don't know if that means they decided Man of Steel was the bigger threat or if it doesn't mean anything.

 

With an opening weekend of $38 million and ten days overseas for a $150 million worldwide total, it looks to me like $650 million is out of the question. It could make $325-$360 million, maybe even $400 million since it hasn't opened in Japan or China yet. But I'll be surprised if it makes more than $120 million in the U.S. Cruise delivers a compelling performance though. For anyone who doesn't want to think too much about the plot or how ineptly derivative it is of other, better movies, it still can deliver a solid 2 hours of entertainment.

 

Still not sure about AE. I want it to be good, but I also wanted The Last Airbender to be good and haha that was terrible.

 

The movie doesn't seem like a good fit for Shyamalan any more than Last Airbender seemed like a good fit. But I'm willing to bet Will Smith asserted a lot of control over the process to make sure AE didn't have much of Shyamalan's trademark slow burn style. Still begs the question why anyone would ever trust Shyamalan to make an action movie.

 

I get the feeling that Will Smith is barely in the movie, and that it's all on Jayden's shoulders to carry it which is fairly risky.