JCC Scottish Independence Referendum Thread

On Thursday 18th September 2014 Scottish people will be asked:

Should Scotland be an independent country?

If Scotland were to vote yes it would end the 1707 Act Of Union between England and Scotland - The historic act which created Great Britain and formed the foundation of the British Empire.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acts_of_Union_1707

Some history:

When Tony Blair formed the government of the United Kingdom in 1997 his administration created devolved parliaments for Scotland and Wales, claiming that devolution would "kill Scottish independence stone dead."

Initially all went well and Labour controlled the Scottish Parliament from 1999 to 2007. But in 2007 the Scottish Nationalists (SNP - who have been gradually growing in strength in Scotland since the 1960's) formed a minority administration when the Labour government was thrown out.

In 2011 an historic election was held for the Scottish Parliament - This election saw the SNP make sweeping gains across Scotland. The result of this election was that the SNP formed a majority government in Scotland and thus SNP leader Alex Salmond (who became first minister) earned a mandate to hold a referendum on Scottish Independence.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Parliament_general_election,_2011

The Labour Party, who had long seen Scotland as their personal fiefdom was shocked to their foundations.

The Conservative Party, who have been in a terminal decline across Scotland since Mrs Thacther's government in the 1980's and the Lib-Dem's, who were virtually wiped out in the 2011 Scottish election, currently form a coalition government of Great Britain. The UK government had no choice but to bow to Alex Slamond's request to hold a referendum on Scottish independence and so in 2012 legislation was passed through the Westminster Parliament allowing the Scottish government to hold a referendum on independence.

Initially the "Better Together" campaign was confident that the referendum would result in a solid NO vote. However, as the campaign has gone along the opinion polls have narrowed. This seems to be a result of the "Better Together" campaign and Westminster parties warning Scotland that they may not be able to keep the pound or stay in the European Union. Rather than dissuading Scots from voting for independence, these threats seems to have hardened opinion in favour of a Yes vote.

The latest ICM poll for Scotland On Sunday shows No with just a 3% lead, down 4% since last month. Yes would need just a further 2% swing to win the referendum. ICM is regarded as perhaps the UK's most reliable pollster, so it's safe to say this poll has generated show waves through the Better Together campaign.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politi...ndence-poll-yes-on-brink-of-victory-1-3382125

Were Scotland to vote to leave the Union the SNP government have pledged to keep HM The Queen as their head of state. They have also said they would apply to join the Commonwealth. Nevertheless, it would obviously be a massive humiliation and rejection of the Royal Family for the Queen to have to go to a foreign country for her holidays in Balmoral.

One possible implication of a Yes vote could be for the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, David Cameron, to have to resign, as recently revealed by the well informed political editor of the Daily Telegraph in this blog;

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/b...-cameron-showed-scots-that-england-does-care/

"David Cameron will resign if he loses Scotland. A Prime Minister who allows the break-up of the United Kingdom cannot suffer such a statement of no confidence and continue in office.

That much is understood in Downing Street, where a gnawing doubt about the referendum gets worse by the day. The vote takes place in five months this Friday. Angst rather than panic describes the feeling apparent among those involved – but is it just a momentary loss of nerve, or a dawning realisation that something is seriously wrong?"


So, that's where we are.The very real prospect that in five months time we'll see an end to one of the greatest and most successful Unions in the world, plus what's left of the UK will be looking for a new Prime Minister.

Following any Yes vote would also be months if wrangling and recrimination as the "divorce" is finalized.

Personally I hope Scotland will eventually vote No and the Union will be maintained, but I wouldn't be overly surprised were Scotland to vote for Independence.

Here's all the info how how we got here and what's going to happen next.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence_referendum,_2014

I'll try and keep this thread updated with all the twists and turns as we approach the referendum.

 

Wouldn't this be much worse for Scotland than for England (and Wales and Northern Ireland)? England has a much bigger population and economy and would have a much greater international presence. Losing some of its ties to that doesn't seem like a good idea for a comparatively tiny country.

 

How worthless. So what's even the point of doing this, then?

 

Not that I would have any objection to Scotland ditching the monarch at independence, but Australia, New Zealand, and Canada have Elizabeth as head of state and still do their own thing.

 

Scotland has natural resources, particularly north sea oil. It would be a wrench initially, but I suspect the Scot's would soon adapt to managing their own affairs.

Well it's no different to the set-up with Australia, New Zealand, Canada, etc... A lot of people like the idea of a "figure-head" that's above the political fray.

 

Well, for that matter, the UK itself doesn't much look to the Queen for guidance on policy issues. It's still a repugnant institution. They should take any opportunity available to get rid of it.

 

monarchy is good. our king is the sweetest. it's always nice to read about it in the paper when he goes fishing and stuff.

 

I also enjoyed the Fisher King stories.

 

If Scotland separates, doesn't this finally remove all sheep buggery from Great Britain and move it solely in the larger UK? Or does Wales still count as GB?

 

This would be my opinion as well... and if it somehow resulted in a weaker British monarchy, even better!

 

1. What a terrible mistake. Can you please edit my original post and give Queen Elizabeth her rightful title especially on this most auspicious of day's.

2. Scotland DOES give Labour quite a boost, but analysis of past elections show's that every election Labour has won since 1945 (1945, 1950, 1964, 1966, 1974 (twice) 1997, 2001 and 2005) would have been won with or without Scottish MP's, so the idea that the Tories will rule Westminster forever, should Scotland leave the Union, is false.

Not quite sure how the 1950 and 1974 elections stack up for Labour though, because those were very tight indeed?

That said, it's also true that without Scotland the Conservatives would have had a majority in 2010 and losing Scotland now would be a body blow to Labour, which would take them a decade or so to recover from in England and Wales I suspect.

One interesting political point is that should Scotland vote Yes, what will happen to the 2015 general election? Negotiations between Scotland and the rest of the Union would be going on through this election and Scotland wouldn't formally leave the Union until 2016.

So would Scottish MP's be elected to Westminster in 2015 only to be removed in 2016? Will there be an election in 2015 and another one in 2016? Or maybe the 2010 Parliament will be extended from it's current expiry date of 7th May 2015 until 2016? There is precedent for this when the 1935 parliament sat for a decade to 1945, obviously because of WWII.

3.

 

I'm not sure I'll be able to sleep well until I find out what's to become of Balmoral Castle.

 

It will remain and Salmond has promised Her Majesty that she and her family will be welcome there whenever they like, so sleep soundly.

 

Gott sei Dank.

 

What's Scotland going to do since they can't keep the GBP and won't have EU membership if they leave the UK?

 

That settles it. Move Florida to Scotland.

 

Salmond believe's Scotland can form a currency union with the United Kingdom and keep the GBP, presumably with the Bank Of England remaining lender of last resort (as we've seen with the Euro, if you don't have lender of last resort within a currency Union that's how you can get trouble)

Westminster parties and the governor of the Bank of England have all said it's unlikely they will want to form a currency union with Scotland. It's been suggested the rest of the UK would need to be consulted in their own referendum about forming a currency union with an independent country.

Scot's have taken these warnings as threats and it partly explains the narrowing of the polls, with more people moving into the Yes camp.

What will actually happen in terms of Scotland's currency I really have no idea. Rationally I suspect there will be a currency union between Scotland and the rest of the UK, but I also expect there will be a lot of bitterness and recrimination about Scotland leaving the Union and in such circumstance people may not act rationally. I also suspect there probably will have to be a referendum to ask the remaining nations within the United Kingdom whether they want to form a currency union with Scotland.

Watch this space.

In terms of the EU, Salmond maintains Scotland will apply to join the EU, Commonwealth and I think NATO and he also maintains Scotland will be accepted into all of these.

 

Yes. Which would be awesome.

It's funny that the Scots have escaped much of the police state @#$/ inflicted on the rest of the UK by Scottish politicians in Westminster thanks to having their own devolved parliament.

We'd need to keep a combined military for some time. All British nuclear submarines are based in Scotland, for example.




Sent from my GT-I9505 using Tapatalk

 

No, it's not and nobody should attempt to get rid of it. Why anyone would want to be as classless, crass, grubby and lowbrow as the Americans beggars belief.

G-FETT, I believe that Scotland would easily qualify for EU, NATO membership etc. Though the currency situation is worth examining. Retaining the pound makes a degree of sense for them, but i fail to see how the rest of the UK benefits from such an action. Politics aside (though they are key here) it seems like Scotland wants to eat its cake and have it too, and that's going to be unsatisfactory for other parties - namely, Britain.

I suspect you know I'd suggest Scotland remains in the UK, though.

 

Ender Sai

There must be an Economist article somewhere explaining the Pro's and Con't of currency Union between an Independent Scotland the rest of Great Britain?

 

Certainly, but instead we'll listen to people who play lowbrow sports and know all there is to know about Scotland from watching Braveheart prattle on about how the monarchy is redundant or something.