Amph Summer Box Office

Maleficent: $900 million worldwide
Transformers 4 - $825 million
Captain America 2: $710 million
Amazing Spider-Man 2: $690 million
Godzilla - $600 million
How to Train Your Dragon 2: $600 million
Birth of the Dawn of Rise of the Planet of the Apes: $550 million
X Men Second Class: $500 million
Guardians of the Galaxy: $450 million
Edge of Tomorrow: $390 million
A Million Ways to Die in the West: $300 million
Jupiter Ascending: $290 million

No idea whether Maleficent is any good, just a random pick. The evil queen movies have not done all that well as a whole, but this one has the most firepower of this new genre with Angelina Jolie and Disney and the iconography of Sleeping Beauty. Could also be a $350 million bust.

 

It's kind of an off Summer. Maleficent is sort of the big "if". Could be massive, particularly considering it will have a strong appeal to women of all ages. It could also tank hard. TF4 seems to be the safe bet based on the track record of Bay and the previous three installments, not to mention the addition of Wahlberg, who's really developed into a legit movie star. I'd toss How to Train your Dragon 2 in there as well. But the rest... Will people flock to see a western comedy starring Seth McFarlane? Is Guardians of the Galaxy too obscure and weird for mainstream audiences? And the Wachowski's recent track record at the box office has been sketchy.

I will say that based on the audience reactions from the trailer (which has literally been attached to the last half dozen movies I've seen), 22 Jump Street very well could end up out performing its predecessor by a good $30-40 million.

 

Edge of Tomorrow will make lots of money cause it has Tom Cruise

 

I just don't understand why they are whitewashing Maleficent as a character. It's Disney's own character -- there's absolutely no need to do it!

Tell the story from her side, sure, go ahead. But to try and change what she actually did? Really?

Also, Spider-Man 2 is ... really tanking compared to the first one and word of mouth; it's going to be interesting how that's played, especially because it has essentially the same magic blood plots and written by the magic blood plot experts from Star Trek Into Darkness.

I'm willing to make a bet: I bet that A Million Ways to Die in the West gets over $400 million.

 

Yeah...I kinda think you're not being serious about your first two choices bringing in that much money, Jabba. Maleficient is one hell of a Big IF. I'm curious about it...but at the same time, not enough to actually go see it in a theater. And Bay4mers can go hang as far as I'm concerned. I think Winter Soldier is already the winner this year unless some unaccounted, unelected dark horse steals the race in the final curve.

 

It's pure wishful thinking to hope that Bay4mers (love the title) will flop. I understand that there's no fundamental difference between a Bay movie like "The Island" and Transformers, apart from the Transformers. But that makes all the difference in the world.

Ted was a huge suprise hit, and the red band Million Ways to Die in the West trailer is the funniest movie ad I've seen in years. But I did discount its global box office potential from Ted precisely because it's a western. The last western spoof to hit it big was Blazing Saddles. It's been a long time, but, adjusted for inflation, Blazing Saddles made more than $500 million in the U.S. alone. Wasn't that also rated R on its initial release? I can't remember (yes, I was alive then).

 

I think godzilla is gonna pull in almost $100 million in its opening weekend.

 

I was just two when Blazing Saddles came out. Yes it's rated R. It must be horribly dated and full of inappropiate, racist humor.

No, I've never seen it. If that makes me a horrible person, I so don't care.

 

I just can't see Jupiter Ascending or Edge of Tomorrow being even modest hits.

 

I'm sure Blazing Saddles dated, but I haven't seen it in decades.

Tom Cruise is still struggling bravely to revive his brand name. Oblivion was a modest non flop at just under $300 million worldwide. He is trying to build on his Oblivion audience, whatever that was, and so I assumed $300 million plus a $100 million premium for building an international sci fi following, if such a thing is possible.

 

Edge of Tomorrow reeks of stupid. Ergo, it's not even a Redbox rental from me. Tom Cruz already did one failed SF project last year and this one will probably do no better. Perhaps it'll do worse.

Jupiter Ascending looks pretty. Perhaps it's even interesting. But the convoluted story hinted by the trailers make it seem like an even trippier and perhaps even more difficult proposition than Cloud Atlas. IMO, just like with Cruise, the Wachowski's box office draw has long since faded.

 

It's hard to disagree. But Emily Blunt has some sci fi cred. People remember her fondly from Looper and The Adjustment Bureau, both modest non flops. Looper did well relative to its low budget.

 

Even though that movie was confusing?

 

What, Looper? I wouldn't say it was confusing, but it seemed to disregard its own rules regarding time travel and paradoxical contradictions. Still, it was an entertaining yarn. But out of the two, I much prefer The Adjustment Bureau.

 

People remember Emily Blunt? Really?

EDIT:

Don't get me started on Looper and its ridiculously nonsensical, impossible plot that thought it was being cute.

 

Looper's main virtue was its $30 million budget. Edge of Tomorrow: $175 million. Will probably need at least $525 million worldwide to break even. Don't see that happening, although it could do well on rentals, just like Oblivion did.

 

Just came across an article for Edge of Tomorrow, and the reviews and buzz are extremely good. Maybe this will be the rare Summer movie that actually builds momentum rather than plummeting %60+ in its second weekend (Godzilla fell from $90 mill to $30 mill here in the U.S.).

 

But it's releasing the same day that The Fault in Our Stars is, and that movie is generating a crapload of buzz.

 

You're... not serious, right? Can't tell... imagine Joker pic...

 

Oh really? Sorry I know next to nothing about the book or the movie, I just know that EW ran a story about the movie.

 

Yeah, it's a popular YA thing I think -- and a very good cast from what I understand -- but it's the definition of "alternative programming" for Edge of Tomorrow...

 

Maybe it's a case of style over substance. We will see.

 

I think it may be exactly that. But yeah, no reviews for Maleficent at this point are not a good sign.