ST The Last Jedi Box Office Discussion (see warning on page 307 before posting)

I apologize if a similar thread has already been posted; let the record show that I did scroll through several (and I do mean several) pages before creating this.

TFA is well on its way to challenging Pocahontas... I mean Avatar for the box office crown, ignoring inflation. But will episode XIII be met with the same demand?

When ANH was released it had the advantage of being something new, the originality and novelty of it helping its B.O. draw; yet when ESB was released, and I think most would agree it was a superior film, while still being a massive success it still experienced a dip in the numbers.

Now I thought TFA was a good film but a little underserving of the amount of money it is going to make, I don't want to make this a review so I will just say I thought it could have been much better. However, with the new story set (mostly) I feel confident that the next instalment will be even better.

So the question is; and we will base the answers on the assumption that the quality will be as high if not higher than TFA; will the next film also challenge for the crown? Or will we see diminishing returns as the hype that surrounded this return to a galaxy far, far away settles?

 

According to historical data of the two previous Star Wars trilogies, episode 7 will be the highest-grossing, episode 8 revenue will decrease significantly being the lowest performer, then episode 9 will bounce back significantly which will make it good enough for being the 2nd best performer out of the three.

The Hobbit trilogy was peogressively softer in box office revenue over time throughout the trilogy, with the best performer being the first movie.
However, the LoTR trilogy was progressively better in box office revenue over time throughout the trilogy, having their best performer in 'return of the King.'

I guess it just depends on how bad the audience wants more.

 

I assume you mean Episode VIII, (8) and not XIII (13)

 

...I feel very dumb right now Yes,VIII not XIII.

 

Is there any way to fix the Title for the thread?

 

I think alot of people will be keen to see 8.
7 was very cliffhangery.
The hype for 7 was insane. I know that can't be repeated, but 8 will do fine business.

 

Of course there will be a significant drop. Usually the first and the last in a series will gross the most.

That being said, TFA (while technically being a sequel) was marketed as a FIRST in a COMEBACK. And while Episode 9 certainly will have some kind of epic ending, it won't be marketed as the "last Star Wars". Disney will make more, MUCH more.

There will be a trilogy with Episode 10, 11 and 12. For sure. If Episode 10 features older versions of Rey and Finn I could see it outgrossing TFA. And if Episode 12 is being marketed as the last in the whole saga, I could see it outgrossing Episode 10.

 

I anticipate a significant drop but still be one of the top ten all-time films (domestic and unadjusted).

What final gross would be a disappointment to you?

For me it's if Episode VIII makes less than $600m

How much do you think it'll make?

I'll say $650m

 

Im gonna go with surpass TFA.(even though its unlikely.) Because

Spoiler

LUKE! :3

 

I am going with it will be comparable. How TFA left us, was a cliff hanger. People are going to want to see it, plus they moved the release date of the movie for December of 2017 instead of May 2017 which will make it on par for TFA due to the holiday season.

 

It's very hard for a follow up to top the first... and since TFA is the first of the new trilogy I think the best VIII can hope for is to be comparable.

 

I dunno, it's possible. Depending on how many new fans there are since TFA. It also helps when I hear of people seeing TFA in theaters 5+ times.

 

Is Episode XIII the one with Darth Plagueis?

 

Yeah for sure.​

 

I think episode 8 makes less than 2 billion. It I finish around 1.8 billion.

 

It will be comparable, or higher. I don't see the Star Wars train slowing down, especially with Luke having a big role now.

 

Plus it is Johnson doing the writing and directing on episode VIII. We only got a glimpse of Luke in TFA, so now we get to see more of him and that is something many fans want to see. I still stand has being comparable as long as it has a December 2017 release instead of a May 2017 as so far there are really no competition in the theaters so far at that time.

 

It can do better the TFA, but that really depends on how the story is recieved by the audience. If I like it I'm going to watch it maybe two times, if it's awesome and it ticks all my boxes (Luke = Rey's father, etc) then I probably watch it a few days in a row. So, it depends

 

TFA was a one-off: Luke, Han and Leia returning for an OT sequel was something that pulled in Boomers who no longer go to the movies. You won't see that again.

 

It will lack the built in Star Wars starvation that TFA benefited from. TPM was bashed by many when it came out, yet it still managed the best box office of the PT. Once the hunger gets satiated a bit, the repeat viewing numbers drop a bit.

Episode VIII will not only be lacking that starvation, it will actually be the THIRD Star Wars movie since the Starvation period ended since Rogue One comes out this December.

Thus, even without a slowing down train, I still don't see it as being able to top TFA. It will be comparable or slightly lower.

 

If it follows the same trend as AotC and ESB, then yes there will be a drop but how significant it will be, I don't know. I think episode VIII will be the true test for the new direction of the franchise.

TFA was always supposed to be big, there was no star wars film for 10 years, and the hype to know what happened after RotJ lasted for over 30 years. Now that we know what to expect and with Rogue One right around the corner, I think it will be interesting to see how it will affect episode VIII and we'll see if their marketing campaign is truly effective. I don't doubt it will make money, but as much as with TFA? Seems pretty unlikely.

 

Evil_elf- I dont' agree with you there. While TPM did make more than the rest of the prequels and became the first star wars movie to cross the billion dollar marker (2012-3D re-release). The movie was littered with way to much criticism and single handedly gave star wars a bad name to some people. Here on the boards alone, the debates were very intense only rivaled by the EU being canon vs non-canon ones. A lot of fans, not counting critics really bashed the film that in some areas are still being felt today, and spurned everything that has come from that point up to the Oct 30, 2012.

AOTC was allegedly a better movie, except that too much was concentrated in the digital filming of the movie and the love story. The ending battle scene was not well done and could have benefited from an extra 15 minutes. This movie suffered at the box office because of several reasons. The first one being a back lash from the Jar Jar Binks fiasco, the second, some of the reviews, third the 2002 World Soccer Cup, fourth, a good Spiderman movie that came in at number 1, followed by Lord of the Rings: Two Towers:
1 Spider-Man Sony $403,706,375 3,876 $114,844,116 3,615 5/3 8/18
2 The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers NL $339,789,881 3,622 $62,007,528 3,622 12/18 8/24
3 Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones Fox $302,191,252 3,161 $80,027,814 3,161 5/16 11/3

The last one is piracy. It wasn't until the latter part of 2004-6 when countries started signing and enforcing treaties that things started to get better. If you notice, from 2008 upwards the box office has risen and the benchmark for a successful pop corn film has gone up.

ROTS was a great movie, that also extended to the novelization. Unfortunately, it tried to accomplish too much from "Save the prequel trilogy" "To tell the Anakin's Fall Story" "To how the Jedi fell, the Sith rose and the Republic crumbled" To telling the ending of the clone wars and the aftermath" "To setting the stage for the future"

While the prequels were successful in a monetary sense, it wasn't the smashing success that some thought it would be. Its funny how that sounds, but when you have a people talking about the first Matrix movie, Spiderman, Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, and Harry Potter its kind of difficult.

TFA was very good for many reasons and it wasn't just the OT re-tread.

 

Episode VIII will do very good, how good it depends on the reviews, the regular word of mouth, the story, and the star wars fans willing to come out in force. Can't it surpass TFA? The box office has changed a lot, and through globalization things aren't what they use to be. Movies will be making more and more as more markets are brought in and there continues to be a uniform standard of reporting numbers. I think this movie will do very good, and of the reviews are just as good or better, than it could make even more.

Back then, TPM had it, but what killed it at the end from being bigger than what it could have been was the negative stuff coming out from the dedicated star wars fans, especially all that mesa me jar jar binks bashing. The 16 year wait which should have torched the box office, didn't. Don't count out Episode 8. People want to see the continuation of the story and of course see Luke in action along with other things. A slouch this movie will not be

 

Two years is a long time now that you have the internet, and youtube. If the next star wars movie goes anywhere near what people have put on youtube, then it will lose money. America has to be more inclusive if it expects to survive. An inclusive story allows all kinds of people to play a significant role in it's outcome. People want that.