Rogue One Rogue One Box Office Discussion

Avatar 2 will not make another revolution. Jim Cameron might do something new later though. He is smart. Still, Avatar universe lacks love for its fictional characters, thats a problem. Every studio now makes desicions on franchises because of audience wanting some sort of relation to a character, a group of characters, continiously working in a larger scheme of believable, recognizable ( and beloved) universe. Avatar, while actually being a pretty good movie, with fantastic dynamic visuals, seems pretty emty to me, on that level. Fox only giving Cameron unlimited time and money because of his earlier credits. But why not? Avatar 2 will make a lof of money. Possible more than Episode 8 overseas. But not domestic. Its Rey vrs Jack Sully. The golden age of tv drama is toying with how bad some scripts for the studios desperate tentpole films at the moment, even Marvels Netflix series have more depth than the repetetive Iron Man / Captain America bore of a plotstructure.

About the Star Wars fatigue: Again, there will come to a point where Disney has to take a break, maybe like a 4,5 year break, we will see how they will deal with it then, but now, i can`t see any signs of audience being bored by Star Wars, for at least 5, 6 years. I think Disney mostly are handling it well with the other two big studios they are playing with, Pixar and Marvel. Out of the 3 i actually think Lucasfilm might have the edge on flexibility. Marvel about to phase out the second phase, Captain America peaking and they will run the show to a crazy level with those two last Avengers films, but then they have look for secondary properties within the Marvel universe, and wait for a more organic reeboot of the most famous ones. Pixar will do great for many years to come, they have showed a high level of originality in terms of brand new scripts, and holding back on oversaturate the marked with sequels. Ok, Toy Story 4, but they could have done a few Incredibles sequels a long time ago. But for Pixar, competition will come from other studios doing more high profile animation. Star Wars, as a fictional playground has a lot of flexibility, and its pretty unique in almost being its own sci-fi/fantasy sub genre. Yes, you don`t have to play with TIE Fighters and X - Wings all the time, you can litterally dig up a whole new story focus, with totally new characters, new visual iconography, somewhere out there, in the other rim of the galaxy, switch time periods, do whatever you want to do. Disney will still play it safe though, for the coming years. Its looks like a winner for now!

And that bring me to actually commenting on the boxfoffice again. If i remember correct, my prediction was it doing $ 550 mill domestic, which now still looks good a good chance. I had it beating Civil Wars total international if China numbers were to reach TFA level. Clearly, we have seen over the last week that China is not happening. So be it.

I have great memories from watching Rogue One 5 times since December 14th. Its not a perfect movie, but it nailed a lot of my Star Wars fan needs, and objectively, was a well made and entertaining movie.

 

If it stays at the Tuesday level for the rest of the week it will be close to or maybe past $500 million by the end of the weekend.

 

Personally I suspect Avatar 2 will depend quite heavily on word of mouth and media reception, as you say it doesn't seem like the characters or setting really have THAT large a following. I doubt Cameron will come up with something as significant as the reintroduction of 3D for the sequel but I wouldn't count him totally out for offerings some originality and greater depth in terms of setting/plot plus of course I think he knows the "formula" for keeping a lot of different audiences happy.

In terms of the Disney sub studios I think Pixar is rather different in that its not dependant on a single franchise although it has obviously become more franchise based, you could maybe point to a negative in that its big original films in recent years haven't been as "franchise friendly" as their earlier stuff although I spose Inside Out maybe possible. Generally though I don't see it as something Disney needs to worry about in the next few years.

Its still making a ton of money but as you say I do kind of get the feeling Marvel is peaking and might have a problem with audience come down after the Avengers Infinity War films plus have to deal with general superhero film fatgue. It will actually be very interesting to see what happens if a dropoff does start as we've never really see a film series like it before, will they reboot and separate certain characters? potentially go more of a Nolan Batman direction?

Lucasfilm does have the advantage that SW is limited to one film a year which aslong as the quality in their makes audiences fatigue less of an issue although obviously the current story focus is much smaller than Marvel as well. They do have the benefit of a very rich setting though and indeed one that's very well suited for expansion, the big choice for Disney I'd imagine is what do they do after the ST is over? stick to anthology films? follow the ST directly? shift in time greatly maybe back to the SIth wars?

 

HAHAHA wow, I can't reload this thread without some ridiculous comments

First of all, the adjusted for inflation list is NOT the only list that matters. You seem to fail to take into consideration that virtually the entirety of that list at the top is dominated by movies that had multiple re-releases. TFA is actually one of the only ones that hasn't been re-released. Even Avatar saw a limited re-release. Lest we forget, the number to beat for #1 all-time domestic first release was $749M not $760M -- Avatar padded its lead with an August re-release that had nothing to do with its initial run. As luck would have it, TFA destroyed both numbers with ease so it was a moot point.

Gone With the Wind, and you can go verify this yourself -- I've done it many times -- Gone With the Wind sold around 60 million tickets in FOUR YEARS OF RELEASE in the United States. Almost no Star Wars movie has performed that low, by the way, AOTC and ROTS cleared 50 million and came close to Gone With the Wind's ticket sales total from it's "one" release. If you can even take seriously a 4-year-long release. Considering no movie would be contractually allowed to do that now days, because there's home video, it already seems like a joke of a comparison. But if you WANT to do that, you can do that, because The Force Awakens sold about 95 million tickets (anywhere from 90 to 100, I'll give you, since we don't actually know the exact dollar average per ticket for that particular movie, just for the year). In other words, in just about 2 months of box office performance of any note, TFA absolutely annihilated -- crushed, destroyed, made a mockery -- of Gone With the Wind's 4-year-long reign of terror when it came out. "But but but but... the people! There weren't as many people!" *whine cry whine cry moan cry some more* WHO CARES?!?! We're not making excuses right? You just said NO EXCUSES, so we're going to forget about home video for TFA and forget about the fact nobody in 1939 had anything better to do than see a movie in theaters because they literally had no TV or anything but like drinking and playing cards. And work, lots of work.

The REAL list you should care about if you're going to head down that dark path is "Adjusted for Inflation, First Release," and there you would find Gone With the Wind likely doesn't crack the top 20 or 30. Titanic doubled its ticket sales, first release. That list would have ANH, TFA, and Titanic right at the top. So what you're saying is completely wrong, again I restate, because TFA was a huge over performance.

For you to say that you "saw it coming," well that's fantastic, can you quote that post? Or is it just something you had in your mind? You were so much smarter than every analyst and every box office watcher that you thought The Force Awakens would be the first sequel of ALL TIME to hit #1 domestic. Ok buddy, you're Nostradamus. Most of us had it at 50-50 odds if things went well (positive reviews, good reception, etc.). Nobody had it nearly topping $1 billion for the first time ever.

I couldn't disagree more with Rylo Ken, either. There is no "inevitable march" towards mediocrity going on here. There are so far 2 great films that stand up with every other great film of the saga. Is it possible even likely that a future Star Wars movie at some point -- even if that's 20 years from now -- gets blasted like Batman v. Superman and disappoints everyone, including the financial department at Disney? Of course, absolutely. But there's no reason to believe that's going to happen on a repeated basis or that it'll happen any time soon. I can see a future Star Wars movie being divisive like the first two prequels, a 60% rating and many fans who love it, some who like it and others who are meh to it, but that won't sink the franchise. I don't understand the reason for negativity.

There won't be anything approaching any "Star Wars burnout" when there's one movie per year. You admit yourself you hate comic book movies, which is very weird to me as they are so far almost all great movies, some of the best movies of the past decade actually. The Dark Knight, Batman Begins, The Avengers, Iron Man, Ant Man, Doctor Strange, these are some of the best films released no matter what genre each year. There hasn't been any fatigue to that at all and likely there won't be. People like GOOD movies. That's why you see Fantastic Four bombed, because the writing was on the wall. It looked awful and it was awful. Nobody was interested. But when the movies are good, the audiences show up.

That doesn't guarantee each SW movie is a $500M+ behemoth but it does mean they're going to keep being hits. Nobody at Disney is sad about a projected $550M Star Wars spinoff. I think they're elated. I bet their conservative / risk-averse finance department had the movie pegged at $425M or so, and anything above that is gravy. Heck, $425M would have been an incredible gross, good for 2nd of the year!

 

I think they are safe from Burnout for the 5 films they have announced. The next 3 will all make lots of money.

The trick will be Episode 10 or whatever comes next.
That needs care. If they fumble that and the public meme becomes "It's the New Prequels!", then the rot sets in.

 

moreorless12

Again I wouldn't bet against Cameron not having a trick up his sleeve (especially for Avatar 3) and I actually think the fact it's not a character/story driven franchise could actually help it. Avatar became a cultural phenomenon because it was a entertaining (but ironically forgettable) movie that gave a almost once in a generational theatrical experience. Having a uncomplicated story can help restart itself quickly (and is also the why it's partly done better internationally then Star Wars). Will just have to see what Mr. Cameron can offer for Avatar 2.

Pixar is kind of a prisoner of it's own success. They have produced so many classic character/movies that people do not want them to end. Therefore it's hard to produce original material when the movie goers all want to see sequels to their favorites. The good part for them these are animated characters so obviously they are timeless in the minds of people. So Toy Story can be on it's third sequel and everything flows seamlessly. Plus too it helps they tend to take nice gaps between movies (kids still go crazy for them on home video, my sons love Toy Story even though the last time it was at the theater they were infants) I am curious (on a side note) how Cars 3 plays out this upcoming summer. Cars 2 is still the only full length Pixar movie to receive a rotten score on RT and you know that sticks up John Lasseter's crawl like no other especially that is the last Pixar movie he directed (though he is slated to to take the helm of Toy Story 4) so you know they are going really to go out in order to make sure the movie is tight. Of course kids will love it regardless though, it's made to sell crazy in toys. Again my kids love Cars.

As for Marvel, they have done an excellent job of safe guarding against fatigue. The Infinity Wars are really being used to give the first generation (Iron Man, Captain America, Thor etc) a proper send off as the next generation of Avengers are set to be in it (GOTG, Spidey, Ant-Man, Doctor Strange, etc) and if I am reading the tea leaves correctly it seems like they will be more of the stars to the sequel of Avengers Infinity War which makes sense if you ever read The Infinity Gauntlet series, it fits. As for "comic book fatigue", I been reading that since 2011. Seems like there is no end to site on comic book movies especially since you see how new characters (to film) are being well received like Doctor Strange and Deadpool (really was his first real movie, I don't count X-Men: Origins...that was just a disgrace LOL!). I think some people see the fact that Avengers 2 didn't perform nearly as well as Avengers 1 but really to me, Avengers 1 was really the anomaly. Take it out and you see most comic book movies have a pattern. The main players (Batman, Iron Man, The Avengers, GOTG etc) are in the $300-500 million range domestically while the low end players tend to be in the more 200's domestically. IMHO the comic book market is very stable and will continue to have success following that pattern for quite awhile.

Edit: And saying that Gone with the Wind sold 60 million tickets over 4 years actually helps it's argument. Forget the population argument (which counts btw) we are talking about a film that came out in 1939 during the depression when people were struggling to put food on the table in ways current generations are about clueless on. For the first two years, it only ran as a advance ticket road show engagements at a limited number of theaters (compare that to Rogue One and how many screens it is showing) where the average ticket was upwards to a $1 which was well above double what a typical price of a movie ticket was back then. It wasn't until 1941 that MGM decided to cut the prizes and allow it to be seen at "general prices" and at regular theaters. It was truly unique and remarkable especially for it's time back when movies/pop culture were not a focal point of society as it is today. Back then religion, family, community was much more important and filled a person's life up which left less time for stuff like pop culture. Let us also remember we are talking about a time when most households if they were lucky own one car. Therefore simply going to a movie theater was a much bigger chore back then it is today or even in 1977. It has been said many times before and continues to be true. Perhaps no movie as been seen by more people in the theater then Gone with the Wind particularly since people didn't go see it 50 times back then in a row. That just wasn't a thing. That all said, it doesn't take away anything from Star Wars. They were both great and remarkable in their own right. Pitting up against each other is absolute silly.

 

Politely, Avatar is pretty damn character driven.

 

I think Mr. Cameron and Fox are excited because they have their hands on a set of novel concepts story-wise. While I agree with everyone here who doubts emulative box office for these coming sequels, you never know what unused "mind-bending" scenarios will be presented, and although movies like The Matrix Trilogy failed properly to exploit so rare a thing as an original idea, Cameron might do just that. Otherwise I don't see any of his Avatar sequels squeaking much past a maximum of $690M domestically. Unless there is another financial crisis next year Avatar 2 will not benefit from favorable exchange rates and so I don't see it making more than $1.8B world wide.

R1 will claw its way to $540M domestic or more - without any further effort.

GWTW really shouldn't be included in the all time lists because without the emergence of home entertainment products, the only place a movie could be seen would be a theater and the original Star Wars movie and all its sequels would benefit tremendously from the many re-releases it would have had under those circumstances. It is impossible to estimate or convert sales and rentals of VHS videos and DVDs into ticket sales, but I am pretty certain the results would be conclusive.

 

Wow, this is like SO absolutely true!!! I haven't posted much in the past week due to some family emergencies which are still uncertain (my dad) so my mind hasn't been very (or even at all) focused on SW or movies. But I just popped in for a moment and had to say that everything above (bold) is exactly what I've been saying. SW could very well be its own genre and has really become its own mythology that can go in many many directions.

But.....I disagree with the $550 million for R1. I think it's really leveling off. I still say (or go back to) $520-ish for a final cume with MAYBE $525 million. I'll take a $535 putting it past TDK but don't see it any more.

But yeah-everything else is spot on.

 

LOL Jedijax think about what you're saying. You did this same thing with TFA if you'll remember

Rogue One will hit $504M let's say by the end of Monday. Right around there, anyway. How is it going to struggle to make just $15M more? I mean just do the math here. It's not dropping off the map that fast. Not by a long shot. Look at TFAs numbers and declines from this point - Rogue One has been tracking well better than TFA the last two days.

$535M is more or less guaranteed and $550M certainly a possibility and probably likely. Most movies have better late legs because of second run theaters and it's easier to experience smaller declines from smaller numbers.

 

Luke02

I'd agree its hard to really state anything definite with Marvel and as you say I do think a big issue is whether we see a transition in focus and how successful it is, without that I do think fatigue is much more likely to set in.

I do see one potential issue here being less superheroes specifically and more the blockbuster climate as a whole, since around 2008-10 I think theres definitely been a movement towards lighter blockbusters rather than those with a more serious tone(Lord of the Rings, Nolans Batman, The Matrix, etc) driven in part by mixed reaction to the last of those and indeed the SW prequels. I do kind of get the sense things are starting to shift back in the other direction now with Rogue One's success on the back of quite limited hype being a potential pointer that wider audiences are ready for more serious material again.

 

I feel that after episode IX and 3rd spin off they should start making those movies with one year gap.. but I am beyond curious what they have planned after episode IX..

 

There should be 2 years minimum between episode movies IMO. You need that time to allow for unpredicted events and to respond to any negative feedback from the previous film.
Could you imagine what AOTC would have been like if it was released a year after TPM? The clones would have probably been Gungans with Jar Jar as their Commander!

 

After the 3rd spin off they should do a break and make a tv serie so the general audience will have hype for another come back and the fan will be happy with a tv serie

 

And do you know if there is any new movie coming out in china this week end

 

Early projections have R1 making around $22 million for the four day weekend (Thursday-Monday). That will officially throw it over $500 million domestically and push it's worldwide total over $930 million which baring a total shocker, a $500 million/1 billion+ split is inevitable. Disney could not be more pleased.

BTW I finally saw Star Trek Beyond. I must agree with Jeremy from Cinemasins. In a summer filled with bad movies, it was one of the few good ones. Yes it was a bit cheesy but overall I enjoyed it a lot. I venture that I even enjoyed it more then Into Darkness.

 

$1.736m Wednesday for RO, WE should be around $13.5m (3-day)...

 

If so, that would officially make Rogue One the box office king for 2016 by end of business Monday though still just short of $500 million. That would have to wait around mid-week or so. Let's say just for argument's sake it breaks $500 million on Wednesday. That would mean it break the $500 million domestic mark by Day 18. That put it make it third fastest all time just behind Jurassic World by a day. But obviously it isn't going to keep Jurassic World's clip which went on to break over $650 million domestically.

Edit: Glancing over some numbers and saw that Doctor Strange as now squeaked by Finding Beasts on the domestic releases for 2016. That means Disney now has 7 out of the Top 10 spots for 2016 in North America. Combine that with having the Top 5 slots worldwide in 2016 (though Doctor Strange will stay at #11 worldwide as it doesn't have enough juice to catch Suicide Squad) and you have just 2 words...total domination!!!

 

Not too much longer until it wins 2016 in America. Another week or so.

 

That's great. The sooner the better. I love this film, and am very happy it has received tremendous success. I'm happy for the actors, too, as acting in Star Wars is a career-altering role for most.

 

can it still beat TDK?

 

Talking about 3D without glasses, it is very telling that most TV manufacturers dropped support for 3D in 2017. It seems that they must have something better (3D without glasses) around the corner. Cameron maybe is already working with them on that.

The question was if Avatar 2 would be another tech demo.... it seems the answer is yes.

To be on-topic, when will we get some actuals? The last update, especially WW, is too old (for a lot of countries 1/1/2017)

 

Wednesday's figures
Hidden Figures $1.9m
LLL $1.9m
Rogue One $1.7m

Not a bad hold for R1. Sing has dropped off a cliff - didn't even make a million!


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And do you think it will make 540?