Senate The Middle East Discussion Thread

So, there's this new thing going on, with Saudi Arabia rallying its allies to cut off relations with its neighbor Qatar, and people in Qatar are stockpiling food and afraid an intervention might be imminent. (Saudi Arabia basically took over Bahrain in all but name a few years ago too, under concerns of their Arab Spring Protesters being too friendly with Iran.)

http://www.cnn.com/2017/06/05/middleeast/saudi-bahrain-egypt-uae-qatar-terror/index.html

 

This is very, very, very bad -- and the fact that the rest of the GCS are cutting off all flights there as of Friday is a pretty bad sign.

I'm not thrilled with all of the Qatari dealings in the region, but this is all but certain to make everything worse -- thanks, 45!

EDIT: On the plus side, I was almost flying back via Doha on Saturday... fortunately, this is not happening.

 

Qatar and the Saudis have been feuding over their respective proxy militias in Yemen. Looks like Saudis have managed to convince everyone to join their side on this.

 

The Middle East is ****ed. It wasn't going great even when Obama was in office, and now with Trump running the show, the place is just going to burn.

 

read: Trump wants business with the Saudis more than Qatar, based on reports of the trip.

 

Saudi Arabia attacked Iran's Parliament and Holy Shrine, at least a dozen dead (ISIS has also claimed responsibility)

http://www.cnn.com/2017/06/07/middleeast/iran-parliament-shooting/index.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/07/world/middleeast/iran-parliament-attack-khomeini-mausoleum.html

 

ISIS did the attacks. Iran blames Saudi Arabia and the US for supporting and funding them.

 

Kurdistan to declare independence on September 25th
https://www.yahoo.com/news/iraqi-kurdish-leader-kurds-iraq-hold-referendum-independence-191338130.html

 

So happy for the Kurdish people.

 

Nothing will come of it. The KRG is entirely dependent on oil revenues to be viable, and will have to export it either through Turkey, as it currently does, or through Iraq itself. The Baghdad government will not reward secession with pipeline access, and Turkey, whose territory comprises the largest part of Kurdistan, will certainly not want to encourage secessionist sentiment either. So it might even choose to sabotage the arrangement it currently has with the KRG and block exports. That leaves Iran and Syria. The Kurdish areas of Syria are de facto independent (Rojava), but they are also landlocked. The Mediterranean coast is held by government forces. And Iran is loyal to Baghdad.

Kurdistan will become independent at some point. But not yet.

 

Other way around, me thinks, no?

 

VVM just means they are allies, not that Iran is subservient to Baghdad. VVM knows this. But yes, Iran leads.

 

BTW, Russia is apparently involved with the Qatar thing too: US suspects Russian hackers planted fake news behind Qatar crisis

 

There is nothing that brute wont attempt.

 

Well, Russian propaganda media loves this, actually. Putin himself loves it, I think. Whether he is behind it or not; the more stuff he gets blamed on, in the world, it makes him seem more powerful, omnipresent. And Russians actually like their ruler to be powerful, feared in the world, even if for being evil, hell, especially the evil ones (most popular national leaders over there are Ivan the Terrible and Stalin, today, seriously lol)

So... This is actually assuring his reelection next year...

 

Oh I'm not saying they don't like it. He's still there after all.

 

So then why not just keep their powder dry and avoid doing anything stupid, especially if time is on their side anyway?

Apparently you aren't alone.

 

The KRG probably wants to take advantage of the federal government's currently weakened state. There's a high likelihood that under normal circumstances, a referendum would not even be allowed to take place. Something good will come out of this, which is that secessionist sentiment will now be accurately known, no longer open to speculation.

 

I think it could win. And Erdogan actually supports the Iraqi Kurdish party, since he hopes all the Kurds in Turkey will immigrate out of his country. I don't think this is like Brexit, with the UK caught like a deer staring into approaching headlights. I think they'd only do this referendum if they were no only prepared for the consequences, but also prepared for it to pass.

 

Well, the referendum was held yesterday. I haven't seen any official announcement of the results, but I expect the vote to overwhelmingly be for yes. The Kurds have wanted secession for as long as nation states have existed in the Middle East, which means since the end of WW1. And as I predicted, Turkey has already threatened to close their oil pipeline that connects the KRG to the export market, and have also announced a joint military exercise with the Baghdad government in the border areas of the KRG. The Iraqi PM calls it unconstitutional and has vowed to do anything necessary to protect Iraq's territorial integrity. The central government isn't going to take this lying down. Meanwhile, Iran calls the vote illegal and has cancelled all commercial flights to Irbil.

You might be surprised to learn that the official position of the US to this is one of opposition.

The US state department said it was "deeply disappointed" that the vote went ahead.
"We believe this step will increase instability and hardships for the Kurdistan region and its people," spokeswoman Heather Nauert said.

Not surprising in the slightest, meanwhile, is that Israel is the only country in the world to officially back the referendum, and without a hint of irony.

As I wrote the last time, even if nothing comes of this in the near term, the vote will be a useful counter to the propaganda messaging of the central governments of the four countries in question, who claim that secessionist sentiment is only held by a small fringe of militants.

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Meanwhile - extra extra, stop the presses! - yesterday Saudi Arabia announced that it will allow women to drive.

King Salman orders driving licenses for women | Al Arabiya English

The order is planned to go into effect by next June.

 

I hope they will be allowed to drive without having their faces covered. I think that would limit their side views.

 

Haha, not likely. And women still need the permission of either their husbands or fathers to leave the house, so there's still a long way to go for emancipation in that country.

 

Great more bad drivers.....I'll see myself out

 

Why, because you genuinely care about women's rights, or you're just looking for any excuse to say something bad about Islam?

 

your a lovely person.

 

As long as it doesn't involve criticising Trump...