Amph The 2018 Box Office Blood Ocean

Just as a gut right now cursory glance, I can't imagine The Avengers: Infinity War not taking the top spot.

My initial guess is:

1) The Avengers: Infinity War
2) The Incredibles 2
3) Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

I just can't imagine JW:FK doing as well as the first reboot-film and dropping due to opening weekend word of mouth

 

13 years ago, The Incredibles (a first time movie) was the #5 domestic grosser in the field and #4 international grosser -- losing to Shrek 2, Spider-Man 2, and Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (whom it beat domestically). In the 29 year period from 1982 - 2011 (The Incredibles was 2004), only 52 movies earned an A+ CinemaScore -- this was one.

I'm willing to stand by my current gut feelings (as it's a gut feeling)...

If PostTrak data was available to view, I'd be more confident, but meh...

EDIT: @heels1785 -- special BP preview with the BCS College Football Championship on ESPN!

 

I look forward to the 2019 Blood Sky, 2020 Blood Planet, 2021 Bloodmoon, 2022 Blood Star, 2023 Blood Solar System, 2024 Blood Galaxy, 2025 Blood Universe, and so on

 

Yes, agreed with all of this.

 

I don't see Solo being in the top 5. I'm not saying it will be a flop, but I think it will make quite a bit less than Rogue One (which "only" made $160 million its opening weekend). The upheaval with the changing of directors, the massive reshoots and so far no trailer at all with 5 months to go, doesn't seem to bode well.

 

Rogue One didn't have to change directors like Solo has, but it had a lot going on behind the scenes including pretty extensive reshoots and directorial "help" being brought on. Most of the general viewing audience probably never knew about all that, and probably doesn't know much about the Solo issues either... so it just comes down to LFL taking those steps to make the best possible final product, and that's all most viewers know or care about. The trailer point is valid, but they likely didn't want one coming out until after TLJ was released, so there will probably be one pretty soon. Having said all that, I don't think it will do as well as Rogue One did, but I still think it could be in the top 3 for the year.

 

Disney seems to be gunning for a genuine flop with Solo but may fall slightly short of total disaster. Wrinkle in Time is the closest thing they have to a sure thing. It has the worst movie trailers I've seen in a year, and I saw all the Justice League trailers.

Fifty Shades Freed unfortunately will likely be the first hit of 2018. FSDarker made 7x its budget worldwide. Even if #3 does half the box office, it will still turn a profit.

 

The Nutcracker movie may not do that well either, but I do think Mary Poppins Returns will.

 

You don't think Tchaikovsky has enough pull in the 21st century to fill cinema seats?

If I were doing some kind of odd narcissistic celebrity selfie deathpool, I'd now note that if I were Pyotr Tchaikovsky, I would be dying this year.

I'd single out Annihilation as an early underperformer. It's too strange and grim for any kind of actual audience appeal.

 

I'd love to see Spielberg have another megablockbuster more than 40 years after his first one, but RP1 does not look like it's going to be that.

 

Avengers to top the year.
Dead Pool to top the R Rated list.
Wrinkle to flop.
JW to flop relatively speaking.

Middle of the road, fairly safe predictions.

 

Disney is due for another March flop after a few years of decent to mega opening weekend streaks that Month (Oz, Muppets Most Wanted, Cinderella, Zootopia, and Beauty and the Beast). The question is will it be a John Carter or Mars Needs Moms type of flop? (the latter barely had any attendance at the theater I worked in).

 

A Wrinkle in Time is a fantastic children's book. Almost universally beloved by everyone who reads it in the Beverly Cleary, Encyclopedia Brown, Bridge to Terebithia age group... but I seem to recall it being super-duper hard to visualize (not in your head, but to make it on TV/film).

 

it's pretty clear from the trailer that Disney has its customary Utter Contempt for the source material.

 

I admit it's been some time since I've read the books (The Chronicles of Prydain remains my favorite children's' books), so I can't say -- but the one thing that gives me pause is I thought the entire point of the first book is that...

Spoiler

She ultimately realizes she needs to become something other than "a warrior," so either that's a misdirect in the trailer or you are correct...

 

So long there is enough snappy dialogue and winks at the fourth wall, too many won't care and half this forum will hail it as a masterpiece.

 

Wocky, you unironically like I, Robot so your footing here is tenuous... (also, it's not that kind of book)

 

Has Disney ever cared what it's source material is actually "like" before throwing it into the assembly line meat processing plant that is their film production division?

 

If all the fans boycott Solo that will send a powerful message to Disney that the fans have almost no market power and they can safely be ignored in the promotional budget for Star Wars moving forward.

 

I look forward to Solo flopping like a goldfish on the floor.