Solo Solo box-office discussion

Since Deadpool 2 is opening to theatres a week before than Solo on the 18th of May, this will enable Solo to have a better second weekend and this will be great if the film has strong legs.

 

Having not seen any footage yet. I would say this may do around $100 domestic opening. I may change my prediction once I see something.
It's difficult to tell, but I would guess it will not do RO numbers. Maybe $500-$600 worldwide when all is said and done. It'll be a successful movie, I just don't know if it'll be "Star Wars" successful. Not comparing it to the original, just not up to franchise standards.

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Such a crowded period to release a film, it's going to be a big drop off from TLJ I'd say.

 

It would be rather shocking if there was no big drop from TLJ. This is a spin-off after all, not a regular episode. It would be better to look at the drop from Rogue One, but even that one could be rather significant. This movie really seems like a complete wildcard to me. It could range from decent blockbuster that is quite a bit behind the biggest movies of the year, to competing for the top spot if Infinity War doesn't see an increase and JW2 gets a regular drop from the last one.

 

It's going to be at least a $500 million drop off to TLJ......

 

Worldwide? Possibly, if not probably.
Domestically? No chance whatsoever.

 

Worldwide of course.....

 

This is a low ball, but here you go. I think the movie will only make 600 million.

 

I think it will struggle to get to a billion. Still, if it could reach 800 million WW that would be a phenomenal result.

 

Rogue One was very Successful

 

I didn't say it wasn't. I also said Solo will be successful too. Just not up to the saga numbers.

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True enough. I agree with you at any rate.

 

380 million domestic
410 million international
790 million $ worldwide

 

Rogue One was very successful because :

1. It was good
2. It was released in December
3. It was Disney's second Star Wars movie & coming a year off the massive gross of TFA

Solo a Star Wars Story :

1. It has to be very good
2. It's being released in a crammed May
3. It's Disney's fourth Star Wars Movie coming only 5 months after a divisive TLJ

 

For what it's worth, Scott Mendelson has argued that Solo might underperform because TLJ was too good of a movie. I'm not on board with that logic, but what do I know.

 

I think it'll still clear $400 million domestically, but after the backlash The Last Jedi is getting, I don't see it doing much more.

 

I think there are a number of reasons to be optimistic about its prospects:

- A return to the popular OT era and the Empire;
- A script by Larry Kasdan, who is probably the most familiar with the character next to Lucas;
- A script by Larry Kasdan, the writer of Raiders of the Lost Ark and Silverado - adventure films that effortlessly mixed action and humor;
- The folks who were let down by The Last Jedi might be chomping at the bit for their annual Star Wars fix;
- Possible appearances by popular characters: Boba Fett and his fellow bounty hunters, Jabba Hutt, maybe an important Alliance figure or two (Cassian Andor?);
- Emilia Clarke, star of the world popular Game of Thrones;
- Ron Howard, who has shown he can deliver a great film if he has the right script (see point #2).

Hopefully, Lucasfilm will put in some surprises, like a Harrison Ford and Billy Dee Williams cameo.

 

I don’t see any chance of a $100M opening whatsoever for a million reasons. First, we won’t let that happen. Fan bases control openings and that’s not even 10 million tickets at the premium rates that OW commands. Every fan will be there, and many like me multiple times. As usual. Keep in mind with these $100-115M predictions you’re saying it can’t beat Thor 3. On a holiday weekend. I mean... really? Star Wars is a brand that means something. It always has. You say Star Wars and things move - like Deadpool 2. It may be a summer crowded with blockbusters but make no mistake this is one of the biggest and it’s from the franchise that invented blockbusters.

Second it’s Memorial Day weekend so it’s a 4-day period. I would target $135M four day at the lowest. It will be the biggest opening weekend in history for Memorial Day as the record is pretty weak to say the least. Star Wars is back to take its throne for that weekend.

I certainly think there’s a good shot of a $155M OW like Rogue One BUT over four days not three. Anything higher would surprise and impress me substantially.

I think upper 300s with a shot at $400M seems likely because I will never bet against a SW movie as if you did you’d currently be sitting at 0/9 in predictions. Under Rogue One? Very safe bet, very likely. Under $375M? Don’t bet on it.

 

The funny thing about the current movies at the top for that weekend is that they have a pretty good excuse why they are so "low".

POTC 3 officially sits at 114.7/139.8m, but only because its Thursday evening previews were not counted towards opening day. These previews are identical to the ones we have now, but they didn't count towards opening day back then. If one includes the 13.2m in previews, the weekend total is at ~128/153m, which isn't that far from what was in second place alltime at that point (POTC 2).

Indy 4, meanwhile, is technically at 100m/126.9m for the weekend, but it already started on Thursday, so by the end of Monday it was ~152m as well.

 

No. At least one fan won't be.

 

That would be a great haul.

 

What will be considered a "failure"? I say we need to be reasonable. Solo is NOT doing $500 million domestic and I think that $400 million is VERY iffy.

This will be a test as to whether a concentration of HUGE hits is cannibalistic. IW, Solo, DP2, and JW2 all coming out within about 6 or 7 weeks of each other.

$350 million is my very rough estimate.

As for OW, I don't know. $115-$120 million? IW will be in its 4th weekend giving Solo some room to breathe. But if IW is REALLY good then who knows.

 

Do we have a sense of what Solo's overall budget will be? I imagine the production budget will end up being quite a bit considering that Howard ended up reshooting most of the film. On the flipside, the marketing budget doesn't seem like it'll end up being as massive as it has been for the three previous disney star wars films.

I would say that Solo's success depends on how much of a profit it is able to turn based on its total budget (whatever that number is). That, plus the fact that not all of the BO revenue goes straight to the studio, means that the film would probably have to do fairly above average (based on normal industry standards) in order to be considered "successful," but it doesn't necessarily have to meet "star wars" standards, I don't think.

If you guys had to guess, what do you think the BO worldwide total would have to be in order for the movie to break even for the studio?

 

The rumors I've heard say the budget ballooned to around $300 million after most of the film was reshot. Grain of salt and all that, but the reshoots were far more extensive than even those for R1, so...

 

Come Superbowl and we haven't had a teaser (more like a teaser trailer at that point) we should definitely worry. The next 10 days we really need to see something.