Solo Solo box-office discussion

If production is $300 M and say advertising is $150 M, the film is going to have to make a ton of money to breakeven. Suicide Squad had a production budget of $175 and needed to make between $750 M and $800 M worldwide just to breakeven according to the Hollywood Reporter.

 

Is it possible that the marketing budget has been trimmed down due to the extensive reshoots? And that's why the film hasn't been promoted yet?

Instinctively, I can't see the production budget being less than $300 million (due to all the reshoots), and I also can't see the production budget being less than $100 million (and that's assuming my theory of it being trimmed down is correct).

With that in mind, considering that studios tend to only obtain roughly half of the BO revenue, this film would theoretically have to make roughly $800 million world wide just to break even. Considering that this is Star Wars we are talking about, that might still be possible, but they sure are cutting it pretty tight if these really are the circumstances they're in. Hopefully they'll at least be able to generate SOME profit from this film, however small that profit ends up being in the end.

 

Well, Rogue One was quite profitable for Disney (it was their most profitable film of 2016, edging out Captain America: Civil War), and its total cost to produce, market and distribute was an estimated $515 million. It's estimated net profit according to Deadline was $319 million. That should give us some idea what Solo needs to do, assuming its cost is in the same vicinity.

http://deadline.com/2017/04/rogue-one-box-office-profit-2016-1202054697/

 

Yeah if Solo can do R1 numbers then it'll be just fine, but R1 was kind of a fluke when you think about it. I don't think anyone was expecting a spinoff to do THAT well. If it can happen again for Solo, though, then disney SW will be back in good shape, I think. Good word-of-mouth should help, I would imagine.

Is Solo going to screen in China? Maybe it has a chance at doing better there then TLJ did since it's a spinoff that doesn't seem to require as much sentimental attachment to the mainline series.

 

Well, it is an origin story for several of the most popular characters in the franchise (Han, Chewie, Lando)...

 

So we’re going to get an origin story, almost certainly no force presence, no prior knowledge required and fast “cars”.

COULD this succeed in China?


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I don't see any reason why it would. It's still Star Wars, it's not going to be without very obvious connection to the other movies, and it is a spin-off, which aren't exactly known for doing great business in China. Any money made in China will be negligible. This should be more likely to fall even below TLJ.

 

Solo needs to make 550M worldwide to be profitable.

This is my expectation.

The absolute top of the most wild prediction is 700M worldwide.

 

I'm looking at $750 million for the Han Solo movie ww. That is the barometer, $550 is too low. If Howard infuses the old OT style of things this movie will be definitely embraced by the OT fans, which is what its going to need. Also, with Han, Lando, and Chewie, and probably some baddies from the Empire....maybe a Vader scene here or there, and this movie could get close to a RO. At minimum, this movie has to make over $600 million at least. I got faith in Ron Howard he is one of the more established directors out there. In fact, he's got more winners than RJ and GE. JJ was always good with his lost series and several movies that he directed/produced/written, and then of course TFA with its monumental numbers.

 

I don't see why people are lowballing Solo. It's Han Solo. If the movie gets good reviews and word of mouth spreads, I see this movie passing a billion easily.

 

Could someone please make a poll and have it close 1 week before the movie? This time I would love to avoid what happened in the TLJ thread, where people were saying that everyone expected *this* and *that* and such.

Let's make a poll and put an expiry date on it before the movie, so we can know what we are expecing for real.

This poll should have $ ranges on it, not just higher/same/lower than R1.

Mine is 550M Worldwide, maximum 700M. Both numbers will put the movie into profitability.

 

To paraphrase Solo himself, let's not get cocky.

 

Ironically, I think the controversy surrounding the production of the Solo film will help it at the box office at least on opening weekend. People will be curious to see if Ron Howard pulled it off and how Alden Ehrenreich does as our favorite scruffy looking nerfherder. One thing is clear though, Lucasfilm needs to really knock it out of the park with whatever trailer they have planned.

 

I think about 700 WW. Maybe upwards to eight if it’s received very well. Even with a film that no one seems to like, I can’t see less than seven hundred, I think.

 

I'm waiting for the trailer before I make a prediction.

 

After three movies that fell more or less flat for the Chinese audiences, it isn't all that surprising that they didn't put the focus on this being a Star Wars movie. That being said, it shouldn't make much of a difference.

 

What did RO open on for the weekend?

 

Rogue One opened with about 155m. But that was a regular weekend, Solo is opening on a holiday weekend.

Solo should have less going for it though. It doesn't have Vader, it's not the first spin-off, it comes shortly after the last SW-movie and it has much bigger competition. This movie really could be all over the place.

 

Also, Solo will have way more competition in the form of Infinity War and Deadpool 2.

 

Disney really should have delayed it until December. I do not know why though.

 

Mary Poppins


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Not just that. Disney wanted a month where Avengers and Star Wars come out in the same month so they can own the summer box office and maybe the yearly domestic box office for a third time in a row. Also, Disney has wanted a Summer release since 2015 with TFA but had to stick with Christmas until The Last Jedi. Now, with Solo coming out on Star Wars 41st birthday, it'll be a celebration for all Star Wars fans to see a Star Wars movie come back in May. That's why when u look at their slate for Disney's Summer 2018 (Avengers: Infinity War and Solo: A Star Wars Story in May, Incredibles 2 in June, Ant-Man and the Wasp in July, and Disney's Christopher Robin, the live-action/CGI Winnie the Pooh continuation, in August), it makes sense for why Disney would want Solo to come out in May. Plus, Ron Howard has been known to get movies finished and out and released on time for their set release date. So, that's why Solo is sticking in May.

 

75/165

 

SOLO - A Star Wars Story

Box Office Prediction BEFORE Teaser/Trailer Release:

Floor: 700 Million worldwide
Middleground: 800-900 Million worldwide
Ceiling: 1000-1100 Million worldwide