Amph The 2018 Box Office Blood Ocean

Black Panther seems easily set for the biggest President's Day weekend of all time, possibly by a really wide margin. In the midwest we've been stuck under a foot of snow but will finally be thawed out this weekend. Reviews are good RT score inflation notwithstanding. Everyone's ready for something new besides Star Wars and Jumanji. $180 million or more in the U.S. $300 million worldwide?

Deadpool is the mark to beat with a $152.2 million president's day 4-day opening weekend. I'm in for $180 million 4 day. $200 million will not surprise me.

 

Tracking was hilariously racist for Black Panther, basically putting it at like 90 -120.

In much the same way that Wonder Woman was hilariously sexist via tracking ($68 million) and it shattered that tracking, I suspect the tracking is very, VERY wrong for Black Panther. That being said, I still only expect it to hit the $150 - 160 million mark, simply because of Marvel movies and their various levels.

 

How is tracking any kind of ist.

 

Because it basically counts white men as a barometer and are then surprised when it's wrong (e.g. Wonder Woman as a good example). The tracking company basically ignored the fact that BP shattered pre-sale records (for all movies) and said "Nah, white guys..."

Of course, I could be wrong and they're correct with their tracking estimates for BP! I do not think I am so far though...

 

I don't think trackers are trying to be racist towards anyone. Maybe the need to update their models, but that doesn't mean they're being racist.

 

The tracking for BP has been higher than 120 for a couple of weeks now. Those initial tracking figures were that low because that's what the tea leaves said at the time. They've moved up steadily as the release date approached. They've ranged from 150 to 170 for the past few days.

 

Looks like $200 million for the four-day might be too conservative.

 

Yes. Mojo says $75MM for the Friday, including Thurs previews, and is predicting $185MM for the three day and $210MM for the four day.

 

March looks so crowded, much like last year. A Wrinkle in Time, Red Sparrow (iffy), Pacific Rim 2, Ready Player One, Tomb Raider. Bold prediction, but I think everything will underperform. Another prediction: A Quiet Place will be the Get Out of 2018.

(am I doing this right, Rylo Ken?)

 

Red Sparrow has a really great review already from Variety, but I would agree that Wrinkle in Time, Pacific Rim 2, Ready Player One and Tomb Raider all look like duds.

 

Ready Player One has a chance of being vastly superior to the source material.

Something Spielberg has accomplished before.

 

There are so many directions and possibilities you can explore with virtual reality, it’ll be a wonder if Spielberg doesn’t heavily modify the story to make it more exciting, fresh, and original. I don’t think that’s beyond Steven freakin’ Spielberg.

 

I dropped the 14 year old and his three friends off at the theater last night. Line out the door and down the block, already sold out. I bought them tickets for tonight instead. This thing has erupted into serious event film status.

 

So next weekend 100 million at least, right? I know Marvel movies have pretty steep declines but I can see Black Panther pulling a Jumanji and just ruling the roost for most of March.

Also Greatest Showman has now outgrossed La La Land domestically (probably wont' catch it worldwide). the legs on Greatest Showman are pretty astounding. 11 million opening weekend!

 

All The Box Office Records 'Black Panther' Broke (And Almost Broke) In Its $235M Debut | Forbes

 

At least we know which aptly named movie Black Panther is going to annihilate in its second weekend.

 

Justice League: Entire Domestic Run: $228 Million
Black Panther: Four Day Opening: $235 Million

LOL @ DC

 

No comment. Be proud, @heels1785

 

Someday soon I'll be up late with insomnia and Justice League will be free on cable. Can't wait to find out what all the fuss was about.

 

This pic is not specific to 2018, but overall studio franchises over the years.