Solo Solo box-office discussion

It's definately between BP and JW at this point. Not sure how that one will go though, the weekdays mean quite a bit, and JW started to get some very good weekend drops by its 5th weekend, and it got a second wind after three months. But on the other hand, BP seems to increase its lead on the weekends, and who knows what kind of effect spring break will have. Deadpool suddenly started to have great drops in mid march. If the same happens to BP it could very well get past JW and Titanic as well.

 

I can't see BP beating JW either but $630-$640 million seems to be very much in play. Pretty damn amazing either way!

 

Yeah, this is my thought. Probably settles in right around $640m. Pretty incredible. I didn't think there was any way the hype from the first week was sustainable.

 

This movie is going over the $600 million and it could do it by St. Patrick’s Day. Black Panther is a phenomenal movie. Seen it 7 times, and each time I’m amazed at what I see on screen. What I love about the movie was that it tackles certain issues without getting too earthy, to now. It incorporates the Marvel feel so while movie is tackling certain issues, it still maintains the super hero technological aspect of it. Coogler didan amazing job.

 

Question is: Will Wrinkle in Time top is this coming weekend?

 

It will be close but Black Panther ain’t dropping to the ground, not on the weekends. Movie will surpass at minimum TLJ and Avengers on the domestic side. It will make a billion internationally that’s for sure. Though, I could a new pattern. Fast and the Furious made money in China but not here, and was an international success. BP may not make so much internationally, but will make a killing in the domestic box office. One thing is for certain, Ricardo Fumes was right. Movies now could start seeing super openings, this will be a more common thing, and not so obscure when it was just Titanic and Avatar.

 

BP will have big competition so it will be a tuff race between TLJ and BP
Tomb raider
Pacific rim
Ready player one
This are movie with same target audience than BP, Blockbuster fan or Geek. Its a competition Deadpool didn't have

 

I haven't felt the trailer or the TV spot.

I finally saw BP for the first time last Saturday. Packed theatre, one of the biggest IMAX screens in the world. Solo trailer came on. No reaction. I've never been in a packed theater and experienced no reaction from the audience for a SW trailer.

I'm hoping, for me, this is a LOTR situation; I wasn't feeling the trailer for Fellowship, but I loved the film.

There's a 0% chance of Deadpool 2 being a flop.

 

Tomb Raider will be big. Seems to hit the same family fun vein as Jumanji did.

 

It seems that THE source for successful original NON-source material based movies is animated. Disney consistently pumps out successful new Pixar films. Granted they are kid-oriented so the quality is not always a determining factor for success. But there are some creative minds working on the stories for these and Pixar puts out the best of these.

Part of me wonders if some of the Pixar story writers were to create a story for live action production if it would be at least as successful as these Pixar films. Yes, many of them are at least loosely based on old fables, but if you look at films like Alice In Wonderland and Oz: Great and Powerful, there was a nice mix of CGI and live action. I just wonder if some of these writers created a story with a little bit of an edge to expand beyond kids, how well would it do?

 

@Ricardo Funes

Current tracking says otherwise. Right now it's tracking towards a $30 million for it's opening weekend and a $70 million domestic haul. It might do pretty well worldwide. Will have to see. Then again video games have never done well. Heck Tomb Raider is still the box office champ domestically for video game theme movies:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/genres/chart/?id=videogameadaptation.htm

For whatever reason trying to adapt a video game into a movie just as never really worked. The most successful movie video game franchise has been Resident Evil. They just were able to make those on not a huge budget and get enough cross over with the horror genre fans to make it work.

Ironically enough Rampage is a video game adaption (though I am sure most you kiddies do not remember the original video game - showing my age here!) and that just got moved up as well to April 20th, one week before Infinity Wars. Everyone seems to be jockeying for position with the insane slate that is April and May. I am surprised they are not simply moving Rampage to July. There isn't a true big hitter that month. Just some mid-tier blockbusters like Ant-Man 2 & MI: 6.

@Darth Luch

Both Tomb Raider and Pacific Rim 2 are not tracking that high. Neither one is looking like it will hit even $30 million OW so IMHO there really isn't much to truly trip up BP outside of fatigue until Ready Player One and even that is looking at around a $50 million opening weekend. I think Black Panther as quite a bit of room to run. It's already at $500 million domestically and could take on a heck a lot more.

 

I am sure the anticipation for Tomb Raider is not huge, but once it hits theaters, families will say "why not?" and I bet they will be entertained.

Let's be honest, if done right, Tomb Raider has the potential to be as fun as Indiana Jones. Not that it has been there, but it could.

 

Pixar movie are kid oriented but have a far better story then many live action (far better than marvel or DC story)

 

Movie expenditure this year (mainly cut-price Mondays, 2 Adults) - TLJ, Ralph breaks the Internet, The dinosaur movie, Tomb Raider and Solo (probably twice).

 

Since seeing BP, I won't go again until Infinity War. Then Solo (probably numerous times) the rest of the year's releases are not opening night must sees. Majority of them I can wait until they show up on Amazon to rent.

 

@jaqen indeed i agree, i dont think Deadpool 2 can flop. I just thought that maybe it wont be quite the success than the first one was?

So in the end it's BP vs IW vs Solo vs JW2 I'll be at the first screening for Solo in my city (wed 23th in the morning) but i'm not planning to see any of the other blockbusters at the theatre, im not into Marvel and JW2 seems to be as average as the previous.

Shape of water was released last week in France and it was so damn good!!! After Solo i'll go and watch Isle of Dogs...then there'll probably be some good stuff too later. I enjoy talking about these big blockbusters, honestly, but gosh it's really 90% terrible stuff. Just saw Thor Ragnarock on TV...gasp...at least i DID try!!!! :-D

@Luke02 the video-game-movie-adaption curse is real! I suppose it's mostly:
1)either because it's based on some games like Mario or Sonic which has no real story/background/lore and are sometimes so crazy if considered as a real story that you might as well do something else. These games are based on gameplay, not fictional appeal.

2) or else they're based on games which feature a solid lore/background. Except how you translate it on a different medium? Why would anyone want to see a movie that is the exact same story but in a "passive" way? Why would i pay more money to see a shorter, non-interactive version of the Last Of Us that aleady felt like a movie?

 

It's really being put on display now just how difficult it is to get to 600m+. BP sits at 512m now with probably about two weekends left of making significant money. TLJ had 539m at this point. Maybe TLJ didn't leave as much money on the table as some were originally thinking.

 

BP week end will be around 35-40 million, TLJ was 23 soooo.
i really don't like BP but lets face it it will beat TLJ domestically.

 

We'll see. If it does beat TLJ it isn't going to be by much. It just shows how ridiculously inflated some people's predictions were for TLJ. In the end TLJ probably made right around as much as it should have made. Maybe a little bit less but all that talk of how it should have made over 700m domestic were complete nonsense.

 

At this point I'd say high 600s is more likely for Black Panther than low 600s are. It should be at ~520m heading into next weekend, and all the remaining weekends alone should be enough to equal TLJ's and TA's total. Then you have to add the weekdays on top of that. Something around JW is the lowest I can see at this point.

 

Nah. It isn't hitting JW numbers. Even if it gets 40m it would still only be at 560 or so. It's getting very little on the weekdays (which is why TLJ has pulled ahead of it despite not having as good of weekend numbers). It's weekend numbers are going to likely start falling off more after this weekend with a movie like Tomb Raider coming out. I think 630 or so will be where it ends up.

 

So far BP had no competition it was alone, since i'm interest in BO, I never saw a so big movie having a such highway to make his money
Even if movie out in march aren't HUGE movie, its still copetitio, we will se how BP hold.

 

BP has little to no competition, but i think it would have done extremely well even if it had. Hollywood might look closer at the February / March corridor now, after Black Panther and Beauty and the Beast doing so well. For TLJ - we thought it had light competition - on paper - but Christmas normally should bring in a few big movies on top of the most obvious money maker, and this happened. Jumanji and Greatest Showman in this case.

Right now Disney will have to compete against itself with " Wrinkle in Time" debuting this weekend. So far that looks like game set and match for Black Panther - as Wrinkle getting mediocre reception as we speak. Red Sparrow is also bombing. And while Tomb Raider could be a minor hit, it will hit the theatres when BP has made most of its money.

 

Jumanji and the greatest showman were big movie with a 90 million budget and a movie superstar.
Witht this competation Bp would have made less. Not a lot less but still less.

 

JW made almost $12m after its 11th week in theaters. That's something a lot of people are missing as they track BP against it. Even if BP stays even with JW for the first 10 weeks, it will still fall $10m short of JW's DOM.

BP will likely finish somewhere between 630 and 645. A truly remarkable run.