Author Topic: ODDS in Insider 87 (Controversial Issues Abound)
Lord_Hydronium  6273 posts
Title: Literature Gardener
Registered: Jun '02
15597_Vergere
Date Posted: 4/6/06 7:48pm Subject: RE: ODDS in Insider 87 (Controversial Issues Abound) - Date Edited: 4/6/06 8:03pm (4 edits total) Edited By: Lord_Hydronium
LtNOWIS posted:
Terra Sool was liberated without any clone troopers, and it had a huge droid presence. According to the NEC, Ord Cestus was a typical operation. Thus, it was not terribly uncommon for 5 troopers to be able to liberate a planet.

Like I said, not always. On the other hand, Mygeeto, Felucia, Geonosis, Merson, Parcellus Minor, Jabiim, New Holstice, Aargonar, Kashyyyk, Cato Neimoidia, Saleucami, Muunilist; I don't think I need to keep on listing the battles with heavy infantry operations. Even Coruscant had infantry action.

The Cestus operation had space support as well that played a decisive role; those ship's crewmen don't come free. Even Haruun Kal, in which Stover was intentionally demonstrating a clone-backed militia strategy, had a lot of clone soldiers dispatched.

LtNOWIS posted:
Furthermore, I think they had vastly more than 3 million clones, thanks to Spaarti cylinders. The GAR article only dealt with Kaminoan clones.

McEwok, Ender_Sai, and apparently Traviss don't, though. And anyway, the millions of clone divisions quote shows that the early batches of Kaminoan clones were still too big for Traviss numbers. I don't see what's wrong with just retconning the article's definition of "Grand Army".

Ender_Sai posted:
Consider the Battle of Trafalgar. A numerically superior French and Spanish force is completely defeated by the English, who lose no ships. Granted, Viscount Nelson was killed, but when you consider the number of French/Spanish ships destroyed or captured, and that the English lost none, that's clearly not numbers, it's tactical ability.

And therefore tactics must be able to beat any numerical superiority, no matter how big. Just like how a pair of Jedi can decimate small groups of battle droids, so they can decimate any size group (like they did so well in AOTC). And Luke can destroy the Death Star on his own, so he could destroy any number of Imperial ships. And Obi-Wan can leap 50 feet, so he can leap a mile.

Ender_Sai posted:
In the RPG, in films, books and games, they suck.

Yes, I remember how poorly they did in the arena on Geonosis. They actually lost a few as they slaughtered the 200 Jedi.

Ender_Sai posted:
They are supported by fighters, by artillery, and by gunships, and of course by Jedi.

And with the exception of the Jedi, so is the CIS. Lord of War lists the CIS starfighter complement as being in the billions, incidentally.

Ender_Sai posted:
And yes, again, tactics does matter. It's how Thrawn took a planet with it's planetary shield intact. It's why in wargames the Australian army can often outscore the US army, which by your fairly singular logic should win because it's bigger. If you want to see a situation where numbers matter in a way contrary to your point, the 300 Spartans might be a good start.

I never said they didn't. But you're treating them like they're some magic catch-all. It doesn't matter how much you're outnumbered, be it 10 to 1 or 300 billion to 1, tactics can somehow do the trick.

 

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razzy1319  1862 posts
Registered: Jun '04
24104_Clone Trooper
Date Posted: 4/6/06 8:02pm Subject: RE: ODDS in Insider 87 (Controversial Issues Abound) - Date Edited: 4/6/06 8:11pm (2 edits total) Edited By: razzy1319
Spaarti only comes in after the first year though.

As for said "heavy infantry actions". You dont actually see millions of clone troopers per battle...

Your basing the prowess of all Jedi in one battle, the first battle they have fought in a millenium.

As for tactics, based on a battle they consider a massacre and your logic, The Battle of Geonosis was supposed to be won by the SEPs who not only had numerical superioty but more coming every 1.2 seconds. By what 120,000 clones?

 

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LtNOWIS  2473 posts
Registered: May '05
16494_Clone Assault
Date Posted: 4/6/06 8:18pm Subject: RE: ODDS in Insider 87 (Controversial Issues Abound)
Lord_Hydronium posted:

Like I said, not always. On the other hand, Mygeeto, Felucia, Geonosis, Merson, Parcellus Minor, Jabiim, New Holstice, Aargonar, Kashyyyk, Cato Neimoidia, Saleucami, Muunilist; I don't think I need to keep on listing the battles with heavy infantry operations. Even Coruscant had infantry action.

A lot of those were vastly important; Mygeeto, Felucia, Geonosis, Cato Neimoidia, Saleucami, and Muunilinst were either key CIS member worlds, and/or held incredibly important resources. Jabiim had a ton of ore, and they might've been able to win without much infantry, if they'd listened to Alpha. We don't know the motivations behind Parcellus Minor and Merson. New Holstice was an important hospital, so it's only logical there'd be some sort of clone garrison. Also, we don't know the size of the battle. Aargonar and Kashyyyk were kind of perplexing, but I guess clones gotta go where their famous High Jedi Generals lead them.

I don't even know why I even argued that. Like you said, there's plenty of other examples of clones in non-vital roles, like when they occupied Aargau, or Dantooine. Those really invalidate the idea that clones were only in critically important battles.
Lord_Hydronium posted:

The Cestus operation had space support as well that played a decisive role; those ship's crewmen don't come free. Even Haruun Kal, in which Stover was intentionally demonstrating a clone-backed militia strategy, had a lot of clone soldiers dispatched.


Shatterpoint wasn't a clone-backed militia strategy. It was just Depa and the locals. Mace and the clones only showed up because she turned dark.

Lord_Hydronium posted:

I don't see what's wrong with just retconning the article's definition of "Grand Army".

I'd be ok with that.

Let's not forget that every Lucrehulk could hold like 66 million battle droids, so whenever they take one out, they kill a ton of droids.

 

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Sinrebirth  18923 posts
Title: Sith Emperor of the SWC
Registered: Nov '04
47748_Dath Vectivus
Date Posted: 4/6/06 9:21pm Subject: RE: ODDS in Insider 87 (Controversial Issues Abound)
Aagonar was tactical. Lose that, and the CIS are another step closer to the Perlemian. If they cut across, the Republic loses the Perlemian Metalorn downwards. Major problem.

Dantooine was similarly tactical. With the Republic battling at Mirgoshir and Muunilinst - major battles - if the CIS get a foothold nearby, they can flood Mirgoshir and Muunilinst with reinforcements. Makes sense to me.

Merson, that was a trap. The Republic deployed the setup pirate hunting operations for the Stenness Node, and maybe that entire patch of Inner Rim to Mid Rim. Setting up a base, akin to New Holstice, for that front. The CIS had much larger forces than expected, and it became a ground pounder battle - 5 to 1 forces. And the Republic lost.

Parcellus Minor was not necessarily a major battle. Just the fact the Republic lost, when as we know, they couldn't afford to lose hardly anything. And the Death of A Planet.

Kashyyyk is the insertion point for that entire quadrant. Lose that, lose the quadrant.

 

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Lord_Hydronium  6273 posts
Title: Literature Gardener
Registered: Jun '02
15597_Vergere
Date Posted: 4/6/06 10:01pm Subject: RE: ODDS in Insider 87 (Controversial Issues Abound) - Date Edited: 4/6/06 10:02pm (1 edits total) Edited By: Lord_Hydronium
razzy1319 posted:
Your basing the prowess of all Jedi in one battle, the first battle they have fought in a millenium.

I wasn't talking about the prowess of the Jedi, I was talking about the droids. If they sucked as much as some would indicate (that is, enough that it can neutralize a numerical advantage on the order of at least millions), they should have crumpled like tin foil before the Jedi.

razzy1319 posted:
As for tactics, based on a battle they consider a massacre and your logic, The Battle of Geonosis was supposed to be won by the SEPs who not only had numerical superioty but more coming every 1.2 seconds. By what 120,000 clones?

No no no no no. How many times do I have to say this? I'm not saying that numbers are everything or tactics are irrelevant. I am saying that that doesn't mean you can answer any numerical disparity, no matter how big, by just saying "tactics".

In this case, according to ITW:AOTC, the CIS had about a 5:1 superiority in infantry. The Republic had key tactical advantages, like the element of surprise, or having their air support already mobilized while the CIS was scrambling to get theirs up (ITW also mentions that the Republic hit the hangars to keep fighters from launching). But 5:1 and 300,000,000,000:1 are a big big big difference. Success in one doesn't mean you can automagically scale it up to the other, no more than my Luke in his X-wing example.

LtNOWIS posted:
Shatterpoint wasn't a clone-backed militia strategy. It was just Depa and the locals. Mace and the clones only showed up because she turned dark.

Point. So Depa didn't feel she needed clones yet Mace felt he needed a lot. That doesn't really tell us anything then.

 

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LtNOWIS  2473 posts
Registered: May '05
16494_Clone Assault
Date Posted: 4/6/06 10:53pm Subject: RE: ODDS in Insider 87 (Controversial Issues Abound)
Lord_Hydronium posted:

<Zahn>Point.</Zahn> So Depa didn't feel she needed clones yet Mace felt he needed a lot. That doesn't really tell us anything then.

They weren't fighting the same mission. Depa was trying to overthrow the government with a more intense variation of the standard militia model (NEC). Mace Windu was trying to take in a rogue jedi and fix the dangerous situation.

 

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Ender_Sai  28400 posts
Title: Manager Emeritus
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44324_Kyle Katarn
Date Posted: 4/7/06 12:04am Subject: RE: ODDS in Insider 87 (Controversial Issues Abound)
Hydro; no, you're missing the point and dragging me down with you.

It's not an "and/or" argument.

The point is that 3,000,000 would be enough if used correctly. It's why Thrawn's battle group of five ISDs is sufficient, because Zahn knows what is capable of doing.

You have to understand, that it's not the quantity of a sector patrol fleet or the GAR or whatever, it's how it's used.

An Imperial II Star Destroyer is largely unmatched; it can handle 2 Mon Calamari ships without breaking too much of a sweat. We see ISD Chimeria take out a bunch of assault frigates and fighters in the opening of Heir to the Empire without taking any significant damage herself.

Why?

Because she's beastly powerful and helmed by a man who knows what she can do (that is, also by an author who knows what they can do).

The 3,000,000 GAR number never bothered me as much as people claiming stupid numbers for capital ships, like 25,000 a sector. The obsession with huge numbers I think is a bi-product of the popularity of RTS. Especially since the modernisation of technology, from traditional to Clone/Storm trooper, Venator- to Imperial-class was to make them more efficient - 1 doing the job of many...

E_S

 

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Lord_Hydronium  6273 posts
Title: Literature Gardener
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15597_Vergere
Date Posted: 4/7/06 12:40am Subject: RE: ODDS in Insider 87 (Controversial Issues Abound) - Date Edited: 4/7/06 12:41am (1 edits total) Edited By: Lord_Hydronium
Ender_Sai posted:
Hydro; no, you're missing the point and dragging me down with you.

It's not an "and/or" argument.

The point is that 3,000,000 would be enough if used correctly. It's why Thrawn's battle group of five ISDs is sufficient, because Zahn knows what is capable of doing.

Thrawn's battle group is not facing anything close to 300 billion to one odds. Several thousand to one odds, perhaps, and as I keep repeating, I'm not saying that numbers are everything or tactics are nothing. But that doesn't mean that if you expand his opposition by a factor of a million then nothing changes. You're taking the fact that Thrawn can succeed against great opposition and assuming that he (or the GAR) can succeed against any opposition, no matter how big. That's the problem. Every example given is tiny compared with the odds the hypothetical GAR is facing. One does not apply to the other.

And Thrawn wasn't having a super easy time of it; the some thousand to one odds he was facing was a challenge as it was. Can you honestly say that if you expanded his opposition by a factor of a million he could just find some new tactic to compensate? Is he hypothetically omnipotent?

Ender_Sai posted:
You have to understand, that it's not the quantity of a sector patrol fleet or the GAR or whatever, it's how it's used.

Does quantity not matter at all then? Can we scale it up indefinitely? If the CIS can be blundering idiots and throw 99.9 percent of their forces in an unsubtle, strategyless suicide assault and still have enough to outnumber the GAR by 300 million to one assuming the GAR didn't lose a single man, is that just something that can be ignored? At what point does "tactics" go from legitimate explanation to catch-all deus ex machina?

Ender_Sai posted:
The 3,000,000 GAR number never bothered me as much as people claiming stupid numbers for capital ships, like 25,000 a sector. The obsession with huge numbers I think is a bi-product of the popularity of RTS. Especially since the modernisation of technology, from traditional to Clone/Storm trooper, Venator- to Imperial-class was to make them more efficient - 1 doing the job of many...

You're forgetting that this works both ways; the CIS ships have the same technological advantage.

And because the sense of scale we're working on here can't be emphasized enough, here's the canon lower limit of the number of battle droids: 1,000,000,000,000,000,000. The problem is, beyond a certain number of zeroes, our brains just aren't wired to work any more. We like manageable numbers that we've dealt with. We know what a hundred people is like, we can picture a million dollars, we can wrap our heads around the idea that there are 6 billion people on Earth, but we have direct experience with all of those. The concept of a debt in the trillions of dollars is more abstract. 10 trillion or more cells in the human body is almost beyond our scope. Over one octillion water molecules in a cup is incomprehensible. Somewhere in the middle there falls the quadrillion to quintillion range these figures work in. I gave the example of multiple Earths to try to give an idea of the scale we're talking about, so I'll post it again: if every star possibly visible in the night sky had ten thousand Earths orbiting it with all their population, and all those people were fighting the population of the city of Rome, that's the numbers we're dealing with.

 

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Ender_Sai  28400 posts
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44324_Kyle Katarn
Date Posted: 4/7/06 12:58am Subject: RE: ODDS in Insider 87 (Controversial Issues Abound) - Date Edited: 4/7/06 1:27am (1 edits total) Edited By: Ender_Sai
No, I get it, Hydro, I just don't get impressed by big numbers.

Thrawn was always at a disadvantage; if you up the ante, he wouldn't have gone, "Oh, bugger. That's a lot of zeroes. Oh well, off I go to become yet another despot waiting my turn."

He would have tailored his strategy.

You talk about how people fail to grasp the numbers, but in your fangasm of a billion troops or ships, you ultimately forget that wars are fought at key places with finite space. There's a point where troops or ships become so crowded that they're creating a target rich environment for any armed entity.

Moreover, I think from reading TTT, and other EU sources, that a planet in SW is more like a country here, and oftentimes it seems to be taking a capital and creating a corridor of ground/space control is enough to conquer a world.

You ignore, though, things like Thermopylae or the 1991 Gulf War, in which numerically inferior units were able to exact a tactical advantage. Granted, the spartans lost when they were flanked but it really highlights just how much a well trained unit can count for against an inferior foe. Heck, the Iraqi units in 1991 were veterans, having come off a decade long war and they still failed to match US/UN soldiers 1:1.

In a situation whereby, say, 300 clones had to face a million battle droids in anything less than an open field, I'd gamble on the clones. They're better trained, they think independently, and have better equipment and arms. And yes, I'm aware each clone needs to kill about 3,333.33333etc battle droids to win that engagement, but if the Spartans could hold off a million persians in melee...

E_S

 

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razzy1319  1862 posts
Registered: Jun '04
24104_Clone Trooper
Date Posted: 4/7/06 12:59am Subject: RE: ODDS in Insider 87 (Controversial Issues Abound)
One thing Ive been arguing for is how little we know of the exact tactics, strategy, and movements.

I could think of a lot of ways to handle the 3 million number, granted a lot of people wont buy it but it would in some level work.

How well could the sep fleet fight through Rep territory defended by Planetary Defense forces?
More importantly during the first six months how capable was the Sep fleet and sep army to do an offensive or defensive action after the surprising appearance of a rep army?
How narrow are the choices of planets minus planets that have no strategic value?
How fast can the factory world's output be mobilized without republic interference?
Are Republic conscripts as plentiful as the not well known as Imperial Army Troopers?
Was the 3 miilion troopers divided into 100 or less division to delay the numeric advantage of the Sep Army or even the mobilization of the Sep Fleet?
How far along did the first converted Sep battleships, detroyers and etc appear?
Were the core worlds defenses left in the hands of the Planetary Defense forces and their Star dreadnaughts, planetary shields and golan space stations?

Theres a bunch more information that we dont know that might make the 3 million viable.

 

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DarthBoba  32897 posts
Registered: Jun '00
8187_Luke Skywalker
Date Posted: 4/7/06 1:13am Subject: RE: ODDS in Insider 87 (Controversial Issues Abound)
Just felt like pointing out that both of you are equally right, at least, according to reality.

-The allied victory in world war II was due to Hitler's tactical imcompetence, Allied tactical ability..and Allied force of numbers was a critical aspect of their victory.

Now, noone has said that the 3 million clones was the only force the Republic had. Indeed, the Lord of war article [states that conscripts comprised a large portion of the Republic Army, which comes as no suprise; if each of the million or so worlds that comprised the Republic sent just a thousand men to the war, that'd be a billion soldiers just for starters.

Lord of war:

Faced with such numerical opposition, the Republic had little choice but to recruit massive numbers of able-bodied men and women from the civilian population to augment the clone army. Some Republic commanders boosted morale by calling the cyborg general's tactics wasteful, and the general himself either fearful or overconfident. The truth behind these accusations by Republic loyalists was far simpler: they were gravely concerned about a relentless enemy commander in control of a military force that was logistically and symbolically infinite.


Now, force on force there is no question that a clone is superior to a droid as a soldier-Geonosis and other engagements showed that the droids minus biological leadership are, frankly, cannon fodder against trained soldiers. Certainly, a million droids against a thousand clones are more than likely going to win if the battle is on an open field, as it was at Geonosis. But, Geonosis is hardly the norm for clone wars battles. The vast majority happened in cities, wooded or otherwise obstructed terrain, or in space-all of which lean less towards sheer numbers for a victory and more towards fluid thinking. Certainly, in a city fight numbers are a big help, but as I'm actually in the army, let me tell you, numbers are not everything. In my last Joint Readiness Training Center rotation, my company was effectively whittled down to about 15 men attacking a city with about 50 'enemy' in it. Later that night, we were attacked by about 30. We won both engagements, by utilizing all weapons we had available and simply being more aggressive.

Now of course, there are situations where numbers are going to defeat any sort of strategy-mechanized warfare is a prime example of this, especially in North Africa during World War Two; it's definitely arguable that Rommel was a better tactical thinker than Montgomery, but Montgomery's victory is usually stated as being due to massive superiority in numbers of everything from men to airplanes.

Likewise, tactics can offset big enemy advantages. In the 2nd gulf war, the American 7th Corps was technically outnumbered by the Iraqi forces across the border. This didn't stop the 7th from annihilating everything in it's path.

In closing: Tactics aren't everything. Neither are numbers. And both can lead to victory.

 

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Lord_Hydronium  6273 posts
Title: Literature Gardener
Registered: Jun '02
15597_Vergere
Date Posted: 4/7/06 1:58am Subject: RE: ODDS in Insider 87 (Controversial Issues Abound) - Date Edited: 4/7/06 2:09am (3 edits total) Edited By: Lord_Hydronium
Ender_Sai posted:
No, I get it, Hydro, I just don't get impressed by big numbers.

And yet you fail to see that it's not a matter of being "impressed". It's that regardless of your "tactics = SUPER-MAGIC" attitude, numbers are still important. There are limits in time and space. Even your wanked out super-tactical omnipotent clones can't be in two places at once.

Ender_Sai posted:
You talk about how people fail to grasp the numbers, but in your fangasm of a billion troops or ships, you ultimately forget that wars are fought at key places with finite space. There's a point where troops or ships become so crowded that they're creating a target rich environment for any armed entity.

Look, at the numbers we're talking about, you could make every droid a suicide bomber and they'd still come out ahead. You could drop them on enemies' heads and they'd come out ahead.

Ender_Sai posted:
You ignore, though, things like Thermopylae or the 1991 Gulf War, in which numerically inferior units were able to exact a tactical advantage. Granted, the spartans lost when they were flanked but it really highlights just how much a well trained unit can count for against an inferior foe. Heck, the Iraqi units in 1991 were veterans, having come off a decade long war and they still failed to match US/UN soldiers 1:1.

In a situation whereby, say, 300 clones had to face a million battle droids in anything less than an open field, I'd gamble on the clones. They're better trained, they think independently, and have better equipment and arms. And yes, I'm aware each clone needs to kill about 3,333.33333etc battle droids to win that engagement, but if the Spartans could hold off a million persians in melee...

And there it is again. "Tactical superiority can defeat some numerically greater foes, therefore it can defeat all numerically greater foes." Yeah, and Luke could destroy the Death Star with one X-wing, so he can fight the entire Empire with one X-wing. Or Yoda can kill a few squads of clone troopers, so he could kill every clone trooper.

See, your Thermopylae example is still off by a factor of a million, and while that may not impress you, wanking out the defenders as nigh-omnipotent doesn't impress the billions of droids that can be positively wasted on a single soldier. By your logic, if 300 Spartans could hold off a million Persians, they could have held off a billion. Or a trillion! Or any number because they're just super-awesome tactical geniuses who can do anything!

DarthBoba posted:
Now, noone has said that the 3 million clones was the only force the Republic had.

Well, Ender_Sai has (or at least implied it). McEwok seems to have. And Traviss tends to be using that.

But a few problems with the conscription explanation:
1) We have never seen a single infantry battle fought by anything but clone forces and Jedi.
2) It's called the Clone Wars. Sure, wars get named inaccurate things, but if the clones made up 0.1% or less of the entire Republic force, you'd think people might not think of the war in terms of them.
3) The ITW quote. Clone forces very near the beginning are already bigger than three million.

None of these exclude conscription (we have quotes that mention it, as you posted), but they do indicate that conscripts can not be entirely what makes up the numbers needed.

DarthBoba posted:
In closing: Tactics aren't everything. Neither are numbers. And both can lead to victory.

Well, someone gets it. Yes, tactics can overcome some pretty amazing numerical disadvantages. But while Ender_Sai wants to act like they're super magical deus ex machinas that can solve any problem, when the numbers get big enough, they reach their limits.

 

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Ender_Sai  28400 posts
Title: Manager Emeritus
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44324_Kyle Katarn
Date Posted: 4/7/06 4:46am Subject: RE: ODDS in Insider 87 (Controversial Issues Abound) - Date Edited: 4/7/06 5:06am (1 edits total) Edited By: Ender_Sai
It's interesting and commendable that you think yourself able to speak for me, Hydro, despite being completely unqualified to do so being as how you don't know a thing about me. Also interesting yet profoundly disturbing is your obsession with wanking; but that's best left to Freud. wink

What I have failed to see in most of the books that favour huge numbers is a grasp by the author of tactics. Denning, for example, substitutes his own shortcomings of which I haven't the time nor bandwidth to catalogue by making everything bigger. People don't win by being smarter, or by routing an enemy; they win by overwhelming the enemy with sheer force.

It's boring.

Having the clone count at 3,000,000 doesn't have to factor in navy, air force or the aforementioned conscripts, but it's hardly the doom-and-gloom scenario you naysayers are making it, simply because it's not swelled by a factor of 10,000. I think it completely underestimates the value of clones, especially the advantage their training and independant thinking gives them over swarms of mindless automatons. It's not that they think of the magical word tactic; it's that they can simply exploit X number of battlefield variables the CIS forces can't. Which is why having 3,000,000 versus a bucketload of droids isn't at all problematic; it assumes that a clone is worth one or two droids when the number would be much, much higher. Simply throwing out the package of a clone for a 1:1 or 1:2 ratio and whinging because the numbers don't seem big enough to you is incredibly short sighted.

E_S

 

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dp4m  36462 posts
Registered: Nov '01
13878_Luke Skywalker Dark Empire
Date Posted: 4/7/06 7:35am Subject: RE: ODDS in Insider 87 (Controversial Issues Abound)
The Battle of Thermopylae is probably the best example of how 3,000,000 could function as a number, at least until the end of the Clone Wars when Grievous began to get desperate...

 

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PadmeA_Panties  1337 posts
Registered: Oct '03
7293_Djas Puhr<br>Action Figure
Date Posted: 4/7/06 8:50am Subject: RE: ODDS in Insider 87 (Controversial Issues Abound)
Is Insider 87 out yet?

 

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