Author Topic: ODDS in Insider 87 (Controversial Issues Abound)
razzy1319  1862 posts
Registered: Jun '04
24104_Clone Trooper
Date Posted: 4/9/06 7:30pm Subject: RE: ODDS in Insider 87 (Controversial Issues Abound)
Master_of_Ossus posted:

Clearly not, if people actually buy into the tripe that 3 million clones would've been sufficient (even though more than 3,000,000 clones participated in the Battle of Muunilist alone).



Then, youve never heard Shatner get angry at Nemoy? grin

Master_of_Ossus posted:

But that's not a valid comparison because of Lanchester's Laws.



Note that Lanchester's Square Law does not apply to technological force, only numerical force

Granted, its from wiki, but the fact that the clones were more technologically superior to droids and that they were backed by a force beyond technology then how do we calculate that?

Master_of_Ossus posted:

That's just a myth that was perpetuated long after the War. The Immortals didn't actually work that way (which would really be a pretty stupid way to operate an elite infantry unit).



I thought stormtroopers were given the same ideals. faceless and infinite indeed.

Master_of_Ossus posted:

Muunilist



One of the other guys answered this.

Master_of_Ossus posted:

Nonsense. The clones enjoyed numerous advantages over the droids that allowed them to quickly overwhelm the droid foundries, not the least of which was their superiority in the early stages of the Battle and the CIS forces' attempts to retreat immediately.



Told L_H the same thing. what could have prevented the 3 million clones from doing so or having the same advantages over the next 6 months to a year in a galactic scale?

Master_of_Ossus posted:

There have been hundreds of battles on Earth in which both sides have brough well over 20,000 troops to the Battle itself. 20,000 is a large division--hardly sufficient for occupying a single country, much less a planet.


We've seen One Imperial Garrison with less than a thousand men guarding One planet. Not a backwater.

Master_of_Ossus posted:

The last time we had this discussion, virtually everyone concluded that I was correct about the number of clones required to fight the War. I don't see that anything has changed, since then.



We concluded with 3 mill being the first year. Using the ratio given by the article multiplied by four for the droid numbers. after The first year exponentially expanded the numbers until the droids reached their quintillions mark. I mean, I concluded with that and you with your own stuff. grin

Lord_Hydronium posted:

Yep, canon doesn't apply to her because she's just too darn smart. It's those other people who don't see it.



Does that mean I'm smarter than you too? Cause I see it... devil grin tongue

JimRaynor55 posted:

Since when is a mere LAAT a "ship?"



Republic Gunship?

[quote=Somebody ]
righteous haughtiness
[/quote]

Geez, you people even looking at your own posts?

[quote=nightmare1 ]
Because last I checked, magical teleporters weren't part of SW technology? Besides; we see the battle of Coruscant in ROTS. Are you telling me the CIS fleet just happen to be there for holidays? (rethorical).
[/quote]

Now if you put two and two together, Billions of battledroids at the beginning of the war with thousands of TFBBs, what the hell took them so long to attack coruscant? My answer: Planetary Defense Forces that narrow the line towards Coruscant.



Nice spoilers by the way, Rogue_Follower...

 

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Lord_Hydronium  6303 posts
Title: Literature Gardener
Registered: Jun '02
15597_Vergere
Date Posted: 4/9/06 7:53pm Subject: RE: ODDS in Insider 87 (Controversial Issues Abound) - Date Edited: 4/24/06 11:13am (1 edits total) Edited By: DarthSapient
Logic has apparently taken a holiday, so it's left to canon to bear the brunt:

Traviss' minor backwater skirmish of a war is described by ROTS:ICS as
posted:
a cataclysmic conflict, thousands of times vaster than the opening battle on Geonosis

"Thousands of times"? Geonosis was 200,000 clones and 1,000,000 B-1s, so that puts a lower limit on the war of 200 million clones and 1 billion droids. grin

Or maybe thousands of times doesn't refer to forces, but to scope. So while Geonosis was one battle, the Clone Wars has at least 1,000 simultaneous battles. Which makes an average of 3,000 clones per battle (2,000 with the Coruscant garrison taken into account, and assuming no clones are garrisoned anywhere else). That's about a regiment. For the record, the relatively minor target of Jabiim warranted 10 times that amount.

ROTS:ICS has this to say about droid forces in combat:
posted:
millions of Separatist warships in the Outer Rim

 

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Rogue_Follower  8560 posts
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6468_Blackhole
Date Posted: 4/9/06 7:57pm Subject: RE: ODDS in Insider 87 (Controversial Issues Abound)
IIRC, she mainly used the Holocron, and also went over some ideas with other LFL people (?)

 

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Ender_Sai  28400 posts
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44324_Kyle Katarn
Date Posted: 4/9/06 8:07pm Subject: RE: ODDS in Insider 87 (Controversial Issues Abound)
Millions of warships? ICS?

Is this the infamous Saxton talking? I didn't care about the prequels enough to buy the ROTS:ICS...

E_S

 

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Sinrebirth  19018 posts
Title: Sith Emperor of the SWC
Registered: Nov '04
47748_Dath Vectivus
Date Posted: 4/9/06 8:16pm Subject: RE: ODDS in Insider 87 (Controversial Issues Abound) - Date Edited: 4/9/06 8:21pm (1 edits total) Edited By: Sinrebirth
Wikipedia -

"The account of the Battle of Muunilinst in the New Essential Chronology says that the Republic landing involved "hundreds of assault ships, each one groaning from the weight of troopers and war machines"; the figure of 3.2 million is only arrived at if this phrase is extrapolated to mean around two hundred Acclamator-class assault ships, each carrying its full capacity of 16,000 clones. While the term "assault ships" often indicates Acclamator-class vessels, there is no logical necessity to make such an inference in this instance, and in fact the original depiction of the battle in Star Wars: Clone Wars shows only around a dozen Acclamator-class ships. It thus is entirely possible that the "hundreds of assault ships" were much smaller vessels, and that the force deployed was perhaps a few hundred thousand."

I wanna ask something, here.

Who did this!

Just because you slap some white armour on someone, doesn't make them a clone!

Think about it. If you equip grunts with the super-sparkly armour of Elite Clone Troopers, whats the enemy going to think?

Simple. That they're facing an army of elite clones. And the enemy organic commander, or enemy battle droid commander, either, in the case of the organic one - considers simply surrendering - or in the case of the droid commander - overestimates the enemy and is defeated.

Its not a terribly complicated stratagem.

The Empire did it with the stormtroopers - a variety of non-clone and clone forces wearing the same armour

And

Hundreds of millions of droids is an acceptable comment, and three million clones, is an acceptable comment, because its only Year One of the war. Thats all.

The number of clones and droids can dramatically increase by the Empire is created, if you like. The planetary militia's of the CIS and the Republic are busy little bee's as well.

And why isn't the CIS attacking Coruscant? Last time I checked...they were.

Month 10, they jump from Metalorn to Coruscant; Month 12, CIS and Republic forces fight at Borleias, the traditional stepping stone for Coruscant; Month 23, the Bulwark Fleet stabs at Coruscant Sector; Month 36, the CIS pops in and fights a week-long siege.

*shrugs*

EDIT Oh, and wouldn't it be smarter to leave a droid foundry intact, sabotage its workings, rather than blow it up and have the CIS establish an even secret-er-er foundry elsewhere?

Misdirection is better than destruction. Look how many life's the D-Day misdirections saved, for example.

 

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ConservativeSoldier  759 posts
Registered: Oct '05
43251_Kyp Durron
Date Posted: 4/9/06 9:21pm Subject: RE: ODDS in Insider 87 (Controversial Issues Abound)
You're all wrong.

/endthread

hugs

 

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JimRaynor55  326 posts
Registered: Mar '05
20435_Star Destroyer
Date Posted: 4/9/06 9:28pm Subject: RE: ODDS in Insider 87 (Controversial Issues Abound)
Fist_of_Mandalore posted:
No, I am willing to accept that maybe all the fighting wasnt done by clones. Perhaps, by some miracle, other soldiers, say perhaps Planetary Defence Forces, as mentioned in NEGVV (Juggernaut article. Says Republic recognized need for pdfs and needed heavy vehicles, ala HAV6 to aid them.) were used. Maybe Clones were the spearhead, used as the "shining white knights" of the Republic( quote from ROTS VD) And of course, the evolution into Stormtroopers, whose very job description and name is shock trooper. Hmmm, I wonder what they do?


That still makes no sense. The number of troops needed to fight across thousands of worlds is immense, and a force of 3 million troops is not nearly big enough to spearhead their assaults.

Let's assume that 30 million troops are needed to conquer and occupy a hostile world. This is probably an understatement, since the world wars involved far more troops than that. If the Republic needs to garrison just 2,000 planets (this includes defending their own territory as well as occupying conquered CIS worlds), that's 60 billion troops. This is a ridiculous understatement, since the Republics has millions of worlds, some of these planets have populations in the trillions, and the Separatists talked about the addition of thousands of worlds in AOTC. 3 million is 1/20,000 of that. As in, there's 20,000 regular troops for every clone. If you apply that to an organization like the US military, which has about 1.4 million active troops, you get...71 guys. The real US military has tens of thousands of special forces. But the clones aren't supposed to be nearly as uncommon and elite as special forces. ARC Troopers and Clone Commandoes are special forces, but the rest of the Grand Army fights like a normal military force, taking part in massive invasions and occupying territory. So, even under extremely ridiculous underestimates of overall troop strength, 3 million is way too small.

This idea also contradicts the Clone Wars as depicted in the movies, games, cartoon, etc. where we see Clones doing ALL the fighting in some battles.

 

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Rogue_Follower  8560 posts
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Date Posted: 4/9/06 9:28pm Subject: RE: ODDS in Insider 87 (Controversial Issues Abound)
...I see the story has created quite a stir over at sd.net, as expected.

Anyone miss the old days of the SSD debates? tongue not_talking

 

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JimRaynor55  326 posts
Registered: Mar '05
20435_Star Destroyer
Date Posted: 4/9/06 9:36pm Subject: RE: ODDS in Insider 87 (Controversial Issues Abound)
Ender_Sai posted:
Ahem;


I posted:
can't say if I care if 3,000,000 is accurate



You said it all right here. Thank you for admitting that you don't care about making sense.

Ender_Sai posted:
Jim; If it comes down to three million or three hundred billion, I'm not going to get impressed by stupidly large numbers.


Billions of soldiers in a galaxy with millions of worlds is "stupidly large?" No, 3 million troops is just stupidly small.

Ender_Sai posted:
I lean towards 3,000,000 because it's a supported argument to some point


Only in articles written by people with no understanding of scale. It disregards the portrayal in other official sources which aren't so stupid.

Ender_Sai posted:
and it also does underscore just what a massively superior force the clone army was. Similarly, I reject the notion of tens of thousands of Star Destroyers because it undervalues what one ISD can do.


You need to be able to overcome BILLIONS to one odds in order to show how l33t you are? Real elite forces can't do that, they'll have trouble with 10 to 1 odds. Do you think the US Army Rangers suck because individual soldiers can't take on the population of planets?

Ender_Sai posted:
Similary, from my experiences with the EU ranging from games to novels and comics is that a planet in SW is more or less like a country here, and that centralised governments rule the entire world (See also: Ukio). Once the clones overran a capital city, it would be a waste of manpower and training to use them to hold and garrison a city if there's fighting to be done. Hence, conscripts, volunteers.


We see in official sources that clones ARE used to garrison planets.

Ender_Sai posted:
A numerical advantage, as you put it, still makes a fatal flaw in assumption; something to the affect that both sides will simply face off on a battlefield that lacks cover, high ground, fortifications etc - advantages which a well trained, independently-thinking army will exploit and use to their advantage. That is, that it's presented as being somehow more like a Napoleonic-era infantry skirmish or the like rather than any modern battles, I guess - two sides, facing off on an open field, firing in a war of attrition.


Why do you continue with this strawman? No one is disregarding the effect of tactics and strategy, they're just saying that the numerical disparity is RIDICULOUSLY large and that there's no way tactics can change that.

Ender_Sai posted:
Ultimately, it's the same for me with stormtroopers and clones; I don't honestly care what the total is, unless someone gets overzealous and starts adding zeroes to the total; anything more than a billion troopers and I go raised_brow . I lean toward 3,000,000 because I think that number + the sieges going so well (cf ROTS) means the clones really where the premiere fighting force in the galaxy.


Again, I'll bring up the point that real life elite forces can't even come close to overcoming billions to one odds.

 

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Master_of_Ossus  457 posts
Registered: Mar '03
17651_ARC Commander
Date Posted: 4/9/06 9:39pm Subject: RE: ODDS in Insider 87 (Controversial Issues Abound)
LtNOWIS posted:
I can't seem to edit my post. But to back up what I was saying earlier, we see hundreds of LAATs attack Muunilinst in Chapter 2, but we don't see any Acclamators actually enter the atmosphere during the assault. The massed LAAT attack against heavy counterfire matches the NEC's description.


Prove that we see "hundreds of LAATs." The counts I've seen correspond precisely with information from ICS as to how many LAATs could be carried by each Acclamator, and did not total "hundreds."

Furthermore, name another instance in which a small atmospheric craft was designated as a "ship." Ships in SW, so far as I can recall, refer only to spacegoing vehicles, and the term is not often (if ever) used to refer to atmospheric speeders.

Furthermore, we KNOW that Acclamators had to have landed because Muunilist involved SPHA-T's, and those are too large to be landed by LAAT's. I will also point out that the ONLY LAAT that landed "behind enemy lines" was one that was purposely sent behind enemy lines to attack an important defensive installation--hardly the result of the sort of chaos described by the NEGC. Clearly, then, the book refers to aspects of the Battle which were not directly seen in the cartoon.

 

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Master_of_Ossus  457 posts
Registered: Mar '03
17651_ARC Commander
Date Posted: 4/9/06 9:46pm Subject: RE: ODDS in Insider 87 (Controversial Issues Abound) - Date Edited: 4/9/06 9:49pm (1 edits total) Edited By: Master_of_Ossus
Ender_Sai posted:
It is utterly astounding that people could not only completely miss the point of the Thermopylae example, but could then try and talk down to those who use it, like the fact you passed within lightyears of the point embodies you with righteous haughtiness. Cute, but no.

Nobody brought Thermopylae up to illustrate how a small force beats a bigger one; you're a fool if you think that, plain and simply. It was brought up to illustrate what should have, in numbers, been a straight forward steam-roller push over a few hundred defenders was anything but simple.


Yet the example COMPLETELY FAILS to demonstrate this because of Lanchester's Laws--something that I have mentioned before and was completely lost on you.

Ender posted:
It was used to illustrate the ignored point that one clone trooper is worth more, in terms of capabilies, than one battle droid. A point the crowd dazzled by unfathomable numbers of zeros as being teh win!!1! ignores often.



The AotC novelization states plainly that a single battle droid is nearly as capable as a clone.

Furthermore, are you deliberately ignoring Lanchester's Laws?

Ender posted:
As at least one person will continue to stumble over the elusive point, I'll reiterate; as the Spartans proved themselves more than a match 1:1 for the Persians, so do clones versus battle droids. The assumption most of the Bright and Shiny Zero crowd (The Quantity > Quality crowd, or maximalists if they prefer) is that if the CIS has 100,000 battle droids deployed to a system, you need roughly 100,000 Clones to defeat them.

raised_brow



So far as I can tell, no one in this thread has made an even vaguely analogous argument. Are you deliberately invoking strawmen?

Ender posted:
I can't say if I care if 3,000,000 is accurate, but I do think that 300,000,000,000 or however many zeros satiate those appetites for more more more, is ridiculous as I think 25,000 ISDs/sector is stupid. It's not that they couldn't afford, crew or build them; it's that if you know what a clone or star destroyer can do, you accept reasonable numbers and add the other parts of the package. RTS isn't a good background for this sort of thing. wink

E_S


What would you consider a "reasonable number" of clones for an army capable of launching offensive and defensive operations on a Galactic scale?

Ender_Sai posted:
Plus, 1,000 Acclamators would fast be redundant because of the introduction of the Venator, which emphasised more than anything capital ship combat and starfighter deployment, which was a weakness on the Republic's part prior to ROTS.

E_S


Do you similarly think that AEGIS cruisers are redundant because of aircraft carriers, or are you incapable of understanding why two different types of vessels can be designed for two separate roles without redundancy between them?

 

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PainRack  442 posts
Registered: Jan '04
24168_Aayla Secura
Date Posted: 4/9/06 9:51pm Subject: RE: ODDS in Insider 87 (Controversial Issues Abound)
razzy1319 posted:

You'd think that if the CIS outnumbered their opponents 300 billion to one they'd be emphasizing that, not talking about how they're outnumbered.

It called Playing with people sympathies which was used during WW2 newsreels... Funny how Palpy might have used the same thing using the quintillion numbers

Odd. I never see this actually occuring in real war propganda. Let me check.

Baghdad bob? Nope.
Fox News? Nope.
Sina? Nope.

Let's go over WW2 propganda....... nope. I see the words crusade, motherland, oh, a nice one, Eisenhower said along with our fellow brothers in arms................ no.

That's odd. I don't see propganda attempting to emphasise their armies are outnumbered by the enemy and are losing. Now, I do see propganda saying that a smaller army won, especially shrinking the real number of troops involved, but nope. Nothing along the lines of what you said.


[quote]Fact is the troops dont keep on dying, they prevail against those thousand and later on kill ten thousand more, and prevail and kill a hundred thousand more. they get better and better as for droids you partially limited with B1 and B2s.

Plus if Jedi do serve most of the 3 million clones then they have a divine intervention card they draw on fairly often.[/quote]
Right. That's why we don't see Clonetroopers dying when Obiwan attacked Utapau. And do you honestly believe the first? The myth that a good warrior doesn't die became extinct during WW1. Numbers and technology count.

As it is, we can see from real life what WILL happen. For example, the famed 7th Armoured Division was considered by Monty to have been exhausted after several years of campaigning in the Mediterran and the Normandy landings. In Iraq itself, despite an impressive kill ratio, we still see americans dying and wounded.


 

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razzy1319  1862 posts
Registered: Jun '04
24104_Clone Trooper
Date Posted: 4/9/06 9:56pm Subject: RE: ODDS in Insider 87 (Controversial Issues Abound) - Date Edited: 4/9/06 9:59pm (1 edits total) Edited By: razzy1319
3 million in the first year
3 million in the first year
3 million in the first year
3 million in the first year
3 million in the first year
3 million in the first year

There stick it in your heads...

JimRaynor55 posted:

Let's assume that 30 million troops are needed to conquer and occupy a hostile world. This is probably an understatement, since the world wars involved far more troops than that.


Thats an overstatement we see garrisons with no more than a thousand troops. The Star Wars Galaxy has far better mobilization techniques than our world wars.

JimRaynor55 posted:

If the Republic needs to garrison just 2,000 planets (this includes defending their own territory as well as occupying conquered CIS worlds), that's 60 billion troops. This is a ridiculous understatement, since the Republics has millions of worlds, some of these planets have populations in the trillions, and the Separatists talked about the addition of thousands of worlds in AOTC. 3 million is 1/20,000 of that. As in, there's 20,000 regular troops for every clone. If you apply that to an organization like the US military, which has about 1.4 million active troops, you get...71 guys. The real US military has tens of thousands of special forces. But the clones aren't supposed to be nearly as uncommon and elite as special forces. ARC Troopers and Clone Commandoes are special forces, but the rest of the Grand Army fights like a normal military force, taking part in massive invasions and occupying territory. So, even under extremely ridiculous underestimates of overall troop strength, 3 million is way too small.


The fact that nobody cares for the first anniversary of geonosis is that the first year is just that, 3 million clones versus hundreds of millions of battledroids.

It elevates to the point where there are billions of clones versus trillions of droids by the end.


JimRaynor55 posted:

This idea also contradicts the Clone Wars as depicted in the movies, games, cartoon, etc. where we see Clones doing ALL the fighting in some battles.


Another major assumption, we focus wholly on Jedi and clones since they are the most interesting. Ever seen an army of Imperial Army Troopers somewhere lately?

Painrack... I already answered those responses.

 

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Master_of_Ossus  457 posts
Registered: Mar '03
17651_ARC Commander
Date Posted: 4/9/06 9:59pm Subject: RE: ODDS in Insider 87 (Controversial Issues Abound)
razzy1319 posted:
Master_of_Ossus posted:

But that's not a valid comparison because of Lanchester's Laws.



Note that Lanchester's Square Law does not apply to technological force, only numerical force

Granted, its from wiki, but the fact that the clones were more technologically superior to droids and that they were backed by a force beyond technology then how do we calculate that?


Were the clones even technologically better than the droids? Regardless, it's clear from the AotC novelization statement that a B-1 was nearly an even match for a clone and an SBD was slightly superior to a clone that the clones were not massively superior to the droids--certainly not enough to account for a several trillion fold force-multiplier.

Razzy posted:
I thought stormtroopers were given the same ideals. faceless and infinite indeed.


Possibly, but I don't see what that has to do with the Immortals and our discussion of Thermopylae.

Razzy posted:
Master_of_Ossus posted:

Muunilist



One of the other guys answered this.


The only way it's been "answered" is by lying about what is seen on-screen, ignoring the presence of SPHA-T's on the ground in an effort to claim that no Acclamators landed, and twisting the canon to claim that "assault ships" used by the Republic are not, in fact, the same thing as "Republic Assault Ships," and that instead they refer to speeders that were used to insert a small force of infantry. Hardly an overwhelming rebuttal.

Razzy posted:
Told L_H the same thing. what could have prevented the 3 million clones from doing so or having the same advantages over the next 6 months to a year in a galactic scale?


The scale of the difference. Just because giving me a baseball bat might allow me to defeat another man in a physical battle does not mean that a baseball bat will let me kill thousands of people in such a confrontation. Moreover, we observe other instances (such as Hypori) in which the CIS enjoyed similar advantages and routed Republic forces--it is not realistic nor logical to assume that because one side enjoyed some advantages in a single battle that these advantages would have ALWAYS been with them in a conflict that encompassed many dozens of engagements.

Razzy posted:
We've seen One Imperial Garrison with less than a thousand men guarding One planet. Not a backwater.


Which garrison was that? And anyhow, why does it matter? The US does not maintain an even distribution of troops and military material across all US territory. If there are large geographic variations in the density of military manpower in real life, it would tend to preclude the use of very small sample sizes in determining the average Imperial garrison strength.

Razzy posted:
We concluded with 3 mill being the first year. Using the ratio given by the article multiplied by four for the droid numbers. after The first year exponentially expanded the numbers until the droids reached their quintillions mark. I mean, I concluded with that and you with your own stuff. grin


Fair enough, although I still disagree with 3 million for even the first year. Muunilist ALONE involved that many troops, and that doesn't count the simultaneous (quite significant) battles going on at Mon Calamari, Hypori, and Dantooine.

 

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Master_of_Ossus  457 posts
Registered: Mar '03
17651_ARC Commander
Date Posted: 4/9/06 10:05pm Subject: RE: ODDS in Insider 87 (Controversial Issues Abound)
razzy1319 posted:
3 million in the first year

There stick it in your heads...


Muunilist was in the first year, and involved more than three million clones. There were also several smaller, but still significant, battles that were fought using considerable numbers of clone troopers that were waged concurrently. Misrepresenting Clone Wars cartoons, ignoring the presence of SPHA-T's, and claiming that an LAAT="ship" even though they have no hyperdrive capabilities and are designed for atmospheric combat does not constitute a serious rebuttal.

JimRaynor55 posted:
Thats an overstatement we see garrisons with no more than a thousand troops. The Star Wars Galaxy has far better mobilization techniques than our world wars.


Are you arguing that a single garrison represents the force required to conquer a planet? Besides, it took the Trade Federation tens of thousands of battle droids to occupy Naboo--a virtually undefended planet. It similarly took "thousands of battle droids" to occupy a single level of a single city on Utapau, and a comparable number of clones to clear them out.

JimRaynor55 posted:
The fact that nobody cares for the first anniversary of geonosis is that the first year is just that, 3 million clones versus hundreds of millions of battledroids.

It elevates to the point where there are billions of clones versus trillions of droids by the end.


I can see that the conflict intensified later, but three million is even too small for the first year, given NEGC.

 

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