Author Topic: ODDS in Insider 87 (Controversial Issues Abound)
nightmare1 
Registered: Jun '04
Date Posted: 4/9/06 10:28pm Subject: RE: ODDS in Insider 87 (Controversial Issues Abound)
razzy1319 posted:
nightmare1 posted:

Because last I checked, magical teleporters weren't part of SW technology? Besides; we see the battle of Coruscant in ROTS. Are you telling me the CIS fleet just happen to be there for holidays? (rethorical).



Now if you put two and two together, Billions of battledroids at the beginning of the war with thousands of TFBBs, what the hell took them so long to attack coruscant? My answer: Planetary Defense Forces that narrow the line towards Coruscant.


Guess why it was a rethorical question, pal. I even marked it for you wink

 

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razzy1319  1862 posts
Registered: Jun '04
24104_Clone Trooper
Date Posted: 4/9/06 10:45pm Subject: RE: ODDS in Insider 87 (Controversial Issues Abound) - Date Edited: 4/9/06 10:46pm (1 edits total) Edited By: razzy1319
Master_of_Ossus posted:

The scale of the difference. Just because giving me a baseball bat might allow me to defeat another man in a physical battle does not mean that a baseball bat will let me kill thousands of people in such a confrontation. Moreover, we observe other instances (such as Hypori) in which the CIS enjoyed similar advantages and routed Republic forces--it is not realistic nor logical to assume that because one side enjoyed some advantages in a single battle that these advantages would have ALWAYS been with them in a conflict that encompassed many dozens of engagements.



Why can't they take full advantage of it for, lets say, a full year(Muunilist) before the CIS takes the bat and throws it back at them(Hypori)

Master_of_Ossus posted:

Were the clones even technologically better than the droids? Regardless, it's clear from the AotC novelization statement that a B-1 was nearly an even match for a clone and an SBD was slightly superior to a clone that the clones were not massively superior to the droids--certainly not enough to account for a several trillion fold force-multiplier.



A clone can change tactics from experience the moment his current one doesnt work, a droid either has to be reprogrammed, upgraded later on, or follows its options rather than create new ones(Like the Trifighter chasing Anakin).

I'm not overpowering the clones just powering down the droids.

Master_of_Ossus posted:

Possibly, but I don't see what that has to do with the Immortals and our discussion of Thermopylae.



Since the replacing the ranks thing is a myth, as you stated, then it has nothing to do with it anymore

Master_of_Ossus posted:

The only way it's been "answered" is by lying about what is seen on-screen, ignoring the presence of SPHA-T's on the ground in an effort to claim that no Acclamators landed, and twisting the canon to claim that "assault ships" used by the Republic are not, in fact, the same thing as "Republic Assault Ships," and that instead they refer to speeders that were used to insert a small force of infantry. Hardly an overwhelming rebuttal.



you see two acclamators on the surface for the SPHA-Ts, and it is called Low Altitude Assault Transport or Republic Gunship and it is seen by the hundreds.

Master_of_Ossus posted:

Which garrison was that? And anyhow, why does it matter? The US does not maintain an even distribution of troops and military material across all US territory. If there are large geographic variations in the density of military manpower in real life, it would tend to preclude the use of very small sample sizes in determining the average Imperial garrison strength.



Sorry my mistake, it was a backwater planet but the Garrison was responsible for more than the planet it is on, probably a large area of space around it.

May I ask which garrison was manned by clones during the first year of the war?

Master_of_Ossus posted:

Are you arguing that a single garrison represents the force required to conquer a planet? Besides, it took the Trade Federation tens of thousands of battle droids to occupy Naboo--a virtually undefended planet. It similarly took "thousands of battle droids" to occupy a single level of a single city on Utapau, and a comparable number of clones to clear them out.



Thousands is what I'm shooting for as a viable invasion force since its the most that we see in all the novels, cartoons and comics.


Master_of_Ossus posted:

I can see that the conflict intensified later, but three million is even too small for the first year, given NEGC.



The fact that some people can view Hundreds of Republic Assault Ships as Republic Gunships on this board alone, makes me hopeful that it is so.


Nightmare1: beatup

 

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razzy1319  1862 posts
Registered: Jun '04
24104_Clone Trooper
Date Posted: 4/9/06 11:06pm Subject: RE: ODDS in Insider 87 (Controversial Issues Abound)
Just thought of something for the the simultaneous Battle of DanDacMuunHypori...

Does it happen exactly a year after geo? If so, How else would you use a a newly minted spaarti clone army beyond the 3 million of Kamino? A major attack on a major sep financier and Hypori(although I dont know what the tactical advantage of Hypori is).

 

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Master_of_Ossus  457 posts
Registered: Mar '03
17651_ARC Commander
Date Posted: 4/9/06 11:21pm Subject: RE: ODDS in Insider 87 (Controversial Issues Abound)
razzy1319 posted:
Why can't they take full advantage of it for, lets say, a full year(Muunilist) before the CIS takes the bat and throws it back at them(Hypori)


First of all, Hypori happened concurrently to Muunilist--it was designed to prevent the CIS from mobilizing a counter-offensive.

More importantly, there is no discernable reason why the advantages present on Geonosis (surprise, the CIS withdrawing its best forces immediately and protect the leadership, etc.) would have been exclusively on the side of the Republic during the first few months of the conflict. Furthermore, even Hypori is much too early--if, in fact, the War were even by that point then the Republic's three million man clone army would have been irrelevant from then on.

Master_of_Ossus posted:
A clone can change tactics from experience the moment his current one doesnt work, a droid either has to be reprogrammed, upgraded later on, or follows its options rather than create new ones(Like the Trifighter chasing Anakin).


Even if the droids cannot change tactics from experience, this still does not provide the clones with the kind of technical superiority required to be a serious threat to the droids. I can usually dominate computer players in a number of video games, but if you put me up against thousands of computer players simultaneously then almost regardless of how crumby I perceived them to be in one-on-one battles they would still mop the floor with me.

Razzy posted:
I'm not overpowering the clones just powering down the droids.


By ignoring AotC.

Razzy posted:
you see two acclamators on the surface for the SPHA-Ts, and it is called Low Altitude Assault Transport or Republic Gunship and it is seen by the hundreds.


A gunship is not a ship, and no one with any military knowledge would describe the terms as being remotely comparable.

http://dictionary.reference.com/search?q=gunship

Note the single definition (which, happily, coincides with the observed use and capabilities of the LAAT).

You cannot simply combine different terms from different systems of classifications and then conclude that they are equivalent to the designation from a third system which semantically appears similar.

Razzy posted:
Sorry my mistake, it was a backwater planet but the Garrison was responsible for more than the planet it is on, probably a large area of space around it.


In that case I must repeat my question: which one was it?

Razzy posted:
May I ask which garrison was manned by clones during the first year of the war?


So you are claiming that the entire clone army was used in the Battle of Muunilist?

Razzy posted:
Thousands is what I'm shooting for as a viable invasion force since its the most that we see in all the novels, cartoons and comics.


Thousands of troops will let you take a single level of a single city of a single planet that has had essentially no time to fortify itself (to the point where clones can insert into the enemy HQ directly from the air!). What's more, it has been demonstrated that texts like the NEGC require more troops than this.

Razzy posted:


The fact that some people can view Hundreds of Republic Assault Ships as Republic Gunships on this board alone, makes me hopeful that it is so.


Nightmare1: beatup


Fair enough.

 

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Master_of_Ossus  457 posts
Registered: Mar '03
17651_ARC Commander
Date Posted: 4/9/06 11:26pm Subject: RE: ODDS in Insider 87 (Controversial Issues Abound) - Date Edited: 4/9/06 11:53pm (1 edits total) Edited By: Master_of_Ossus
razzy1319 posted:
Just thought of something for the the simultaneous Battle of DanDacMuunHypori...

Does it happen exactly a year after geo? If so, How else would you use a a newly minted spaarti clone army beyond the 3 million of Kamino? A major attack on a major sep financier and Hypori(although I dont know what the tactical advantage of Hypori is).


It happens .3 years (3.6 months) into the War--not enough time for new clones to be grown. Dantooine was strategically important to the Battle of Muunilist because it could have been used as a staging area for a CIS counter-offensive. Mon Calamari took place concurrently, but was a separate battle. Hypori was also a major droid foundry world. Also note that, again, the Republic forces that we saw destroyed on the planet (totalling several Acclamators) were but a fraction of the Republic's total force. According to the Databank, "Disguised orbital mines crippled much of the taskforce before it even made planetfall."

Clearly, the three million figure that Ms. Traviss seems to be promoting contradicts this, since the simultaneous action on Muunilist would have required the full three million clone figure for the NEGC to be even partially reasonable in its description of the Acclamators being fully loaded (in fact, it implies that they were temporarily overloaded with clones).

 

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razzy1319  1862 posts
Registered: Jun '04
24104_Clone Trooper
Date Posted: 4/10/06 12:01am Subject: RE: ODDS in Insider 87 (Controversial Issues Abound) - Date Edited: 4/10/06 12:03am (1 edits total) Edited By: razzy1319
Master_of_Ossus posted:

More importantly, there is no discernable reason why the advantages present on Geonosis (surprise, the CIS withdrawing its best forces immediately and protect the leadership, etc.) would have been exclusively on the side of the Republic during the first few months of the conflict. Furthermore, even Hypori is much too early--if, in fact, the War were even by that point then the Republic's three million man clone army would have been irrelevant from then on.



Other than the fact that the Jedi were out in force looking for any kind of advantage the CIS were trying to get and destroy it?

As for Muun, Sorry, for that I'm at a disadvantage at the moment because I dont have my NEc with me and Thank you for bringing up the things that I miss.

But didnt San Hill go to Muun to simply consilidate the resources for the CIS and not really fortify the planet? i.e. he was running?


Master_of_Ossus posted:

Even if the droids cannot change tactics from experience, this still does not provide the clones with the kind of technical superiority required to be a serious threat to the droids. I can usually dominate computer players in a number of video games, but if you put me up against thousands of computer players simultaneously then almost regardless of how crumby I perceived them to be in one-on-one battles they would still mop the floor with me.



You are still limited to what the AI gives you or what the VG designers limited you to doing, thus the gamer's apprehension with the lack of realism with some videogames.
EDIT: I.e. running away to fight another day, looking for more appropriate ways to kill the enemy.
Master_of_Ossus posted:

By ignoring AotC.



Nope. By saying that thousands of years of evolution is way better than a year of upgrades.

Master_of_Ossus posted:

no one with any military knowledge would describe the terms as being remotely comparable.



Voren Naal, I think doesnt have good military knowledge. From a civilian perpective we can assume that he would call a spaceship is a ship and LAATs are still spaceships. And if the Clone Wars Cartoon was what Naal saw then he saw LAATs as Assault ships...

Master_of_Ossus posted:

In that case I must repeat my question: which one was it?



Kalist VI

Master_of_Ossus posted:

So you are claiming that the entire clone army was used in the Battle of Muunilist?



No, I was just asking if there were any mention of garrisoned clones during the first year.


Master_of_Ossus posted:

Thousands of troops will let you take a single level of a single city of a single planet that has had essentially no time to fortify itself (to the point where clones can insert into the enemy HQ directly from the air!). What's more, it has been demonstrated that texts like the NEGC require more troops than this.



A single city in the planet seems to be the only thing you need to take over.

Master_of_Ossus posted:

It happens .3 years (3.6 months) into the War--not enough time for new clones to be grown. Dantooine was strategically important to the Battle of Muunilist because it could have been used as a staging area for a CIS counter-offensive. Mon Calamari took place concurrently, but was a separate battle. Hypori was also a major droid foundry world. Also note that, again, the Republic forces that we saw destroyed on the planet (totalling several Acclamators) were but a fraction of the Republic's total force. According to the Databank, "Disguised orbital mines crippled much of the taskforce before it even made planetfall."

Clearly, the three million number contradicts these facts.



hmm, thought it was a the last day of the year...

Dac had militia.

I'll say 200,000 to a quarter of a mill with each battle, that gives ~2.25 mill for the rest of the galaxy.

 

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Fingolfin_Noldor  2444 posts
Registered: Aug '04
17460_Luke Skywalker
Date Posted: 4/10/06 12:10am Subject: RE: ODDS in Insider 87 (Controversial Issues Abound) - - - Date Edited: 4/10/06 12:14am (3 edits total) Edited By: Fingolfin_Noldor
I would like to point out that it takes the Kaminoans 6 years at least to raise one clone child to adulthood with the proper training, quoting AOTC.

And the Clone war were 3 years long. Perhaps that will add some perspective.

It's quite difficult to raise billions of clones in a year or two. The Confederacy could probably do 1 billion droids in 1 mth given how fast they worked at Geonosis.

Also, equipping conscripts with stormtrooper armor kinda defeats the purpose of Order 66...

 

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Pershing  454 posts
Registered: Sep '05
6489_High Inquisitor Tremayne
Date Posted: 4/10/06 12:21am Subject: RE: ODDS in Insider 87 (Controversial Issues Abound)
Fingolfin_Noldor posted:
I would like to point out that it takes the Kaminoans 6 years at least to raise one clone child.

And the Clone war were 3 years long. Perhaps that will add some perspective.

It's quite difficult to raise billions of clones in a year or two. The Confederacy could probably do 1 billion droids in 1 mth given how fast they worked at Geonosis.


Didn't Spaarti manage to cut production times of clones to a year or so though? And added to this, it was mentioned in AotC that the Kaminoans were cloners, (I realize this has been pointed out many times before) and thus opening the possibility of other cloners. Ones that didn't take as long as the Kaminoans, and thus potentially shoring up the Republic's numbers.

 

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QuentinGeorge  4763 posts
Registered: Dec '03
48582_Kaan (60609)
Date Posted: 4/10/06 12:24am Subject: RE: ODDS in Insider 87 (Controversial Issues Abound)
So, let me get this straight, a problem that could have been well and truly solved neatly by retconning one set of numbers.....has now been well and truly FUBARED by retconning an entirely separate (reasonable) set of numbers.

Yay for the EU. plain

 

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Fingolfin_Noldor  2444 posts
Registered: Aug '04
17460_Luke Skywalker
Date Posted: 4/10/06 12:29am Subject: RE: ODDS in Insider 87 (Controversial Issues Abound) - Date Edited: 4/10/06 12:35am (1 edits total) Edited By: Fingolfin_Noldor
Pershing posted:
Fingolfin_Noldor posted:
I would like to point out that it takes the Kaminoans 6 years at least to raise one clone child.

And the Clone war were 3 years long. Perhaps that will add some perspective.

It's quite difficult to raise billions of clones in a year or two. The Confederacy could probably do 1 billion droids in 1 mth given how fast they worked at Geonosis.


Didn't Spaarti manage to cut production times of clones to a year or so though? And added to this, it was mentioned in AotC that the Kaminoans were cloners, (I realize this has been pointed out many times before) and thus opening the possibility of other cloners. Ones that didn't take as long as the Kaminoans, and thus potentially shoring up the Republic's numbers.
There were only thousands of Spaarti cloning cylinders, and it took 1/10 of the time to grow a clone. The original factory that produced them was destroyed. There was probably a failure factor that needed to be considered especially considering what was said in the Thrawn trilogy.

However, I might add that the Republic only got hold of these cylinders 1year after the Battle of Geonosis. Hardly enough time to produce troops for the big battles.

 

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Pershing  454 posts
Registered: Sep '05
6489_High Inquisitor Tremayne
Date Posted: 4/10/06 12:36am Subject: RE: ODDS in Insider 87 (Controversial Issues Abound) - Date Edited: 4/10/06 12:44am (2 edits total) Edited By: Pershing
The thing is I don't think the Republic could have even raised enough clones to combat the quintillions of droids even from a maximalist pov. I mean cloning technology I don't think was entirely commonplace, and even if every cloner out there jumped on the bandwagon they couln't make enough. And even if the Republic built more facilities, it would take time to build them. Then it would take at least a year to grow the clones (best case). They had a total of three years to do this with an army that (before all of this retconing) numbered in the quintillions breathing down their necks. I doubt the Republic would have been able to field enough of an army to beat the droids from both a minimalist and maximalist perspective.

Personally I myself would have preferred that the number of clones simply be jacked up and the number of droids dropped down so both sides could be expected to put up a struggle. 2 trillion droids + auxiliaries vs. 500 billion clones + auxiliaries always seemed to me a solid figure. But I suppose leaving both the Republic and CIS undermanned suffices for Travis.

Edit:
Fingolfin_Noldor posted:
There were only thousands of Spaarti cloning cylinders, and it took 1/10 of the time to grow a clone. The original factory that produced them was destroyed. There was probably a failure factor that needed to be considered especially considering what was said in the Thrawn trilogy.


I always assumed they simply built new ones. *shrugs*

 

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Fingolfin_Noldor  2444 posts
Registered: Aug '04
17460_Luke Skywalker
Date Posted: 4/10/06 12:42am Subject: RE: ODDS in Insider 87 (Controversial Issues Abound)
Unfortunately, it appears that the technology to produce them was destroyed by the unseen hand of Darth Sidious.

But it's possible that it was saved and installed at Byss.

 

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Ender_Sai  28400 posts
Title: Manager Emeritus
Registered: Feb '01
44324_Kyle Katarn
Date Posted: 4/10/06 1:52am Subject: RE: ODDS in Insider 87 (Controversial Issues Abound)
JimRaynor55 posted:
Ender_Sai posted:
Ahem;


I posted:
can't say if I care if 3,000,000 is accurate



You said it all right here. Thank you for admitting that you don't care about making sense.


Whomever taught you analysis and debating techniques ought be reprimanded.

I said, I reject what you embrace, that thousands of zeroes is plausible, good storytelling, or necessary. I don't need to compensate for whatever insecurities by taking on military sci-fi writers with experience telling galactic stories assuming my armchair-armchair-armchair tactical scope is greater. happy

JimRaynor posted:
Ender_Sai posted:
Jim; If it comes down to three million or three hundred billion, I'm not going to get impressed by stupidly large numbers.


Billions of soldiers in a galaxy with millions of worlds is "stupidly large?" No, 3 million troops is just stupidly small.


Oh, I think we're just scratching the surface of small things...

JimRaynor posted:
Ender_Sai posted:
I lean towards 3,000,000 because it's a supported argument to some point


Only in articles written by people with no understanding of scale. It disregards the portrayal in other official sources which aren't so stupid.


James - I can call you James, right? - can you please catalogue for us the works, scope, and if relevant, the qualifications of Ms Karen Traviss, and then compare and contrast them with your own. You are free to call upon the works of other reasonable normalists (I think you call them minimalists) like Messers Zahn or Kube-McDowell if it is your wish.

If you can demonstrate that Ms Traviss, or Messers Zahn or K-Mac for that matter (or any other normalists), have relative inexperience with galactic-wide stories (i.e. scale) and military affairs (such as tactics and strategy, two elements oft wanting in the maximalist camp) compared with your own prodigious and well respected output, then you're in a position to deride the works of others. Otherwise, you come across as an English major arguing economics, or a historian debating quantum mechanics, if you see what I mean? happy

Jim posted:
You need to be able to overcome BILLIONS to one odds in order to show how l33t you are? Real elite forces can't do that, they'll have trouble with 10 to 1 odds. Do you think the US Army Rangers suck because individual soldiers can't take on the population of planets?


No, I think they suck because I put them next to the SAS/SASR. happy

I think it bares reflecting that Australian and British SAS units (regarded by most experts as amongst the best, if not the best, of the special forces - but you be sure to tell them that they're wrong and you're right, they'd absolutely love to hear from you I am certain!) were inserting far beyond the normal lines of battle in Afghanistan and Iraq, to assail key locations with little support against a more mobile, and numberically superior number.

Here's a hint; if the ARCs are roughly the equivalent of good to excellent RL special forces, don't use the Rangers/1SFOD-Delta/SEALs/SAS/SASR/GSG-9/etc as your example when we're discussing stock-standard clonetroopers. That they exist to fight in adverse conditions doesn't conclusively prove either point, but they do show your very casual familiarity with military matters.

Or, will you suggest the sheer number of troops in the Chinese army means they could easily, and without trouble, march into Taipei? raised_brow

Jim posted:

We see in official sources that clones ARE used to garrison planets.


Jimbo, that thing you dodged was the inconvenient point you may have to answer; namely, that planets are by and large presented as being vulnerable to the capital city falling. Now by itself it doesn't preclude partisans from taking to the hills in resistance, but one gets the impression from anything from the Battle of Theed to the Siege of Ukio that the capital makes the call. happy

[quote=Jim]
Again, I'll bring up the point that real life elite forces can't even come close to overcoming billions to one odds.[/quote]

Heavens, no. You mean I can't expect the SASR to wipe out the combined populations of China and India? Well, I for one am glad you're here to point out these errors I never made, or I'd make a right pillock of myself. Without your insight, I've asked myself more than once, where would I be?

raised_brow

Whomever was referring to Lanchester's Square Law - you'll notice that in formulating a mathematical explanation for war, as Lewis Fry Richardson also did, that variables are notably absent. It makes the theory interesting, but riddled with caveats. For Lanchester's Law to apply in these instances, we'd have to assume things we cannot know, or can contradict from EU or other sources.

I'll get back to this later, when I've more time.

E_S

 

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Tam_Elgrin  4205 posts
Registered: May '04
46300_Ahsoka Tano (3164)
Date Posted: 4/10/06 2:03am Subject: RE: ODDS in Insider 87 (Controversial Issues Abound)
QuentinGeorge posted:
So, let me get this straight, a problem that could have been well and truly solved neatly by retconning one set of numbers.....has now been well and truly FUBARED by retconning an entirely separate (reasonable) set of numbers.

Yay for the EU. plain


This new 'con contradicts Lord of War, too, right?

 

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Fist_of_Mandalore  2926 posts
Registered: Mar '05
43216_Mandalorian
Date Posted: 4/10/06 3:44am Subject: RE: ODDS in Insider 87 (Controversial Issues Abound) - Date Edited: 4/10/06 7:20am (2 edits total) Edited By: dp4m
Rogue_Follower posted:
...I see the story has created quite a stir over at sd.net, as expected.

Anyone miss the old days of the SSD debates? tongue not_talking

They sure do hate McEwok and us anti-removed profanity over there, dont they?

This new 'con contradicts Lord of War, too, right?
Yes.

 

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