[HCSF] box office predictions

$200-250M.

Yes, I expect the worst from Star Wars these days.

 

$190 - 220 million.

I feel the films have taken too much of a beating by the critics and this may affect the outcome of the income.

A shame really, I'd want it to be about about the Titanic mark. Or preferably, much better.

 

I predict it will do as well as CLONES or maybe a little better, especially if Lucas turns up the hype a few notches and promotes it as the last original STAR WARS movie ever.

 

I am guessing 300 million or thereabouts.

 

Well, i think it will make a little bit more than AOTC. Around 350 million in the USA and further 350 million in the international market. So i guess worldwide 700 million. Wouldn't be too bad at least ;-)

Episode 1 925 million
Episode 4 798 million
Episode 3 700 million (around!)
Episode 2 648 million
Episode 6 574 million
Episode 5 532 million

actual figures are from worldwideboxoffice.com

"Return of the Jedi" made more than "Empire" on the international market. Box Office Mojo must be wrong... !

 

TPM cost AOTC the box office because most people were somewhat disspointed with the movie. AOTC was better which may give some hype to EPIII, but I have my doubts.

For a the first weekend, I predict a huge opening with at least $80-$100 million. For its entire theatrical run, I prdict $270-$320 million which wont be so hot by 2005 standards. Its not too hot even by todays standards if you add inflation of the first Star Wars, it made about $800 million-$1 billion in the U.S. alone.

It all depends on how much screens it opens on, which I don't think will be that much of a high number by 2005 standards. Lucas is picky with his theaters.

 

US: 260 Million

Total: 490 Million

 

Seriously, I think it will be hyped up enormously. All the world will need to see the movie, or at least be curious is a flash of Darth Vader or Chewie in one of the trailers.

AoTC was destined to be the lowest grosser of the 3. Episode 3 is what the Prequels are all about. People could miss the first two and go see the third based on the fact that it is the high point of Star Wars lore.

I'm guessing Episode 3 will shock all of us at the Box Office...tremendously.

If the film is a winner with the critics and fans, I'm going to be crazy enough to say it'll top 460 million domestic.

 

Chewbacca and Vader in the trailer won't hurt.

The media has been pretty much down on SW for two out of three movies. I think they might decide to give Episode III some kudos. Unless GL completely blows it which would be pretty hard to do.

I predict that Episode III will do 350 million domestic and roughly the same internationally.

 

Competition can have an effect on box office numbers, imho. Anyway, here is a list of movies EpIII may have to go up against in 2005 according to "upcomingmovies.com"


March 11, 2005
? Robots

May 25, 2005
? Star Wars Episode III

July 1, 2005
? Indiana Jones 4

TBA
? Astro Boy
? Batman 5
? Bionicle
? Cars
? Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
? Coming Out
? Daredevil 2
? Die Hard 4
? Dr. Strange
? Easy Rider 2
? Elektra
? Fahrenheit 451
? The Green Hornet
? Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire
? Howl's Moving Castle
? Iron Man
? James Bond 21
? Jinx
? Jurassic Park IV
? The Long Green Shore
? Madagascar
? Over the Hedge
? Superman
? The Three Stooges
? Tripoli
? Untitled Alexander the Great Project
? Valiant
? Wallace & Gromit: The Great Vegetable Plot
? XXX2

 

E3 should earn more than AOTC and less than TPM if its gonna stick to the pattern of the OT.

I reckon it should pull in at least $80M opening weekend and finish with about $325M domestically and $650-660M internationally.

 

Thanks for the unlocking Windy.

I'm curious whenever people have changed their minds and what newcomers will say.

 

350 - 400 million.

 

$250-300 million if he follows the pattern of the last two.

But, if he really indulges the darkness and tightens up some of the weak acting and dialogue, it could easily clear $400mm. People who have been turned off from the PT would still come flocking back if he hits the right chords.

 

I'd say that if the people who go see the movie in the first few weeks like it, then they will tell others, and if 1 person tells 10, and 10 tell 10 more, well by golly thats gonna be a lot of people going to see it. And if the movie has the feel of the "olden days" then many many people will flock back to the theatre, and the flock will be 'round the block waiting to get in.

 

I must agree w/ JBFett

I think in the opening weekend it will be around 120 mil. I think US will make around 350 mil. AOTC was definetly destined to receive the lowest box office.

Why do you ask?


Ep I recieved all the hype of being the first Star Wars movie people could see for the first time in the movie theatres, myself included. The third one will have Vader, and everybody wants to see the Man in Black. This will also be, but hopefully not, the last time people will see a Star Wars movie in the theatres, which means there will definitely be more repeat customers.

Also w/ the box office figures previously posted, how much of that was the re-release of the Special Editions.

 

Well I don't think Episode 3 will face the same stiff competition that AotC had with Spider-Man. It may have *some*, but nothing that big. Plus middle parts of a story are *usually* the lowest grossing...if nothing else then we can say that for SW. Factor number three here is that its the last SW film ever. And lastly, Darth Vader.

Even if the general public sees the PT as disappointing compared to the OT, they still come and see it. Its like looking at the sun. You might not like the result but you just can't resist...okay maybe not the best analogy in the world but its all I got right now.

Anyway with all of those factors...I'm going to say $365 million right now.

A year from now that will change I hope because I want to see Lucas push this film as much as possible. It won't hit the same status as TPM but somewhere above most other movies. Marketing tie-ins and tv spots out the wazoo. AotC had practically nothing except for a few tv spots.

If anything like that happens then I may up that prediction.

 

I reckon a reasonable estimate would be about $330m US and $300m-350m internationally, for a total of $630m-680m worldwide.

That's what I said in April '03, and I still go with that.

Until the first teaser trailer comes out, the hype doesn't start for real. Wild reaction to the trailers and a super-heavy marketing push would be a couple things that could change my mind to increase it (or the reverse, of course), but for the moment I'm sticking to that.

 

? Daredevil 2

lol


? Die Hard 4

lol


? James Bond 21

lol

? Jinx

lol


? Jurassic Park IV

lol

? Superman

lol

? XXX2

LOL


I think Episode III will bludgeon any and all competition, except for maybe Harry Potter which might put up a fight. I'm hoping for a high gross.

 

I don't think most of those are still slated to come out next year other than XXX2, which I believe will be later in the summer but still not that successful.

Bond and Harry Potter will release at the end of the year. Along with M:I-3.

Batman Begins really looks like the biggest competition next summer and I don't think its gonna get any worse because we're in a period now where you can have a good idea of a major movie's biggest competition a year ahead of its release because studios eat up those release dates.

Episode 3 will be the biggest film of the summer. Of the year? Hmm...questionable. Harry Potter can give it a run for its money. Maaaybe even King Kong.

 

Hmmmm......hard to say.

AOTC suffered from underhyping and being the middle section of the Trilogy- like TESB.
Also, the PT suffered from retarded Hollywood critics and negative media. Same what happened when the OT came out only that there was no silly compairing factor back then.

I really hope Ep III will get more hyped than AOTC and less critised than AOTC and TPM. I will never understand PT bashers- let's hope I won't do either after Ep III.

 

I'm guessing that since Episode III will be the "darkest" of the PT, the critics are going to trumpet it as "Lucas Returns to SW" or whatever.

So they can get some nice headlines out of it, and feel justified in their critique of SW since ROTJ.

"This is what the PT should have been like all along."

"It only took Lucas 3 tries to get it right, but this movie is a must-see."

At least, in my head, that's what the reviews will look like - and if it does get reviews like that, it will attract the average fan who doesn't even really know anything about the PT.

Why? Darth Vader. I'm guessing >$300 million. If it absolutely owns, word of mouth could make it >$400 million.

 

i agree. the critic prolly will be like that. although i'm a huge fan of the PT. Vader dominated the OT. and they do miss that.

 

Disagree. I think Ep 3 will be trashed by the critics no matter how good it is. It's inevitable at this point. They will say, for the most part, what it is cool to say, and right now it is very cool to trash Star Wars (outside the fan community). Critics like to jump on the bandwagon.

Already by the time AOTC came out it received harsher attention than it deserved due to the prevailing feelings toward TPM, and the negative word about AOTC realy hurt the film (as far as average performance for a SW film). I know people who just haven't seen AOTC, and just don't really intend to. My efforts to convince some friends of mine that AOTC is a good movie are ineffectual in the face of their over-riding need to think pretty much everything is stupid these days. Because cynics are cool. We live in cynical times.

Critics who reviewed AOTC positively did so at the risk of their own credibility, as sad as it is, and I applaud them for it, but the general pressure to automatically dismiss Ep 3 as "another terrible prequel" will be so high by the time Ep 3 comes out that reviewers will be sitting there on their cynical asses and taking notes on all the things they think suck about the movie while blinded with prejudice to anything that they might have enjoyed about it if it were free from association with that one very bad word, "prequel."

How will this affect the box office? Ep 3 will not make much more than AOTC, if it can beat it at all, and could go as low as $250 mil.

My advice: don't try to convince any of the cynics who think the prequels are bad (a good indication of this type is the person who does not distinguish any difference between TPM and AOTC, for better or worse) that Ep 3 will be good, or that it will save the "prequels." (Episode 3 needs to be treated as a SW movie, not just a "prequel," as do TPM and AOTC). Trying to convince these people will only make them more vociferous in their denouncement of Ep 3 once they've seen it. Just let them think it will suck. That way they won't feel cheated and need to proclaim it to the world. Best-case scenario, they will be pleasantly surprised. But insisting that Ep 3 will be the awesome SW movie that all the naysayers have been waiting for will not help it at the box office. Nothing but the film itself, if it is good, will change their minds. And if it doesn't, why should we care?

One thing is for sure. The box office take for Ep 3, in today's environment, will not be an indication of its quality, good or bad.

 

Agreed - but keep in mind, Episode III will have Anakin turning to the Dark Side - and dark = cool.