[HCSF] box office predictions

I'm not quite ready to make my predictions yet but I just thought I'd drop a quick two cents about this...

This movie is generating a lot of interest from people who had none for AotC. The positive reviews will only greatly increase that because its a Star Wars movie. New SW movie + Final SW movie + GREAT reviews + positive word of mouth could equal out to be enough driving force to be more important than the media blitz prior to TPM because despite the fact it grossed $430 million, it still recieved a lot of flack and so-so reviews. Just imagine how much it could have made if it were getting the kinds of reviews RotS is getting right now and people came away from it with very few complaints, if any...

Just. Imagine.

Anyway my point is that why I understand feeling the need to hold back giving it $400 million+ predictions, if all of these things fall into place then we could see the first case of word-of-mouth outdoing the biggest marketing mania ever used for that film's predecessor.

TPM needed media buildup to make that much money. RotS may not.

 

Well, here it is. The current version of the large, in-charge, supersized, "Look at the SIZE of that thing!" ROTS predictions list.

Double-check your predictions. The deadline will be the 18th, so make sure you get them in before then!


***Opening 19th May***
LiamGonNeeson 45
Nebucchad 45
GreviousThis 44
RodentJedi 41
Darth Tall 40
Padmes_love_slave24 40
THX-1138 40
BarbarianKing 39
Jabbadabbado 36
DarthTapion 35-40
deathstar90 35-40
darthchickenwing 35
The Flying Dutchman 35
Marek the Jedi 34-37
BauconBatista 34
Lando_Plenty 34
DamonD 33
beedubew 32
Darth_Ignant 25
Kesel 15

***Weekend 20 - 22nd May***
mgg1025 130
GreviousThis 127
Irish_Ghost 120-125
Darth_Ignant 120
Ghost_Jedi 120
Nebucchad 116
Darth Tall 105
DarthGoldblum 100
Padmes_love_slave24 100
redsabreanakin 100
BarbarianKing 98
beedubew 95
DamonD 95
The Flying Dutchman 95
Jabbadabbado 92
DarthTapion 90-105
Anakin_Skywalker021 90
DarthTapion 90
BauconBatista 87
Lando_Plenty 87
Marek the Jedi 85-100
darthchickenwing 85
Wise-Master 80-100
Darth-Walken 80-85
JediMasterRegal 80-85
Moleman1138 80-85
Bob marley 80
___Obi-1___ 80
Kesel 65

***4-day Total 19 - 22nd May***
LiamGonNeeson 165
GreviousThis 162
Nebucchad 161
RodentJedi 153
___Obi-1___ 150
Darth_Ignant 145
Darth Tall 145
thebadge 145
Padmes_love_slave24 142
BarbarianKing 137
BauconBatista 132
DamonD 130
Jabbadabbado 128
DarthTapion 125
deathstar90 125
The Flying Dutchman 125
Lando_Plenty 121
Binary_Sunset 120
GrazoTheClown 120
beedubew 115
darthchickenwing 100
Kesel 80

***US Total***
JMZ 750
WanderingYoda 650-700
Count_DoodooKuKu 650
LiamGonNeeson 625-700
starwarsagent 623,034,021
Fan-4-Life 550-602
mgg1025 550
Monkeyjedi 550
GreviousThis 542
lukestarkiller1977 540
yoda900 525
thebadge 510
Addiction 500
DarthMaul13 500
darthvader1220 500
darthvader_ani 500
GrazoTheClown 500
___Obi-1___ 500
openmind 500
president_kang 500
Scharfy 500
Smooth_Jedi 500
Duckman 499.9
CloneCommander07 480
Nebucchad 465
beedubew 465
JBFett 460
DarthTapion 450-500
DARTH_CRISPY 450
DARTH_NAFOD 450
DarthToeJam 450
EMPEROR_WINDU 450
imperial_Jedi 450
Mynok_Warlord 450
Star_Wars_Freak_2006 450
DarthWeenie 432-460
stormtrooper519 432-435
Jack1138 425
anthonymaul 420
Padmes_love_slave24 413
dirtyname 412
QuiGonDad1 410
Snake_Charmer 410
Orionsangel 406
BarbarianKing 403.2
BLKNIGHT18 401
Darth_Ignant 400.1
jaw62901 400-500
JediRac 400-500
VanillaZinger 400-450
Count_Davoo 400-450
redsabreanakin 400-425
Arliss 400-410
Boba Jr 400
darksideyesplease 400
Darth_Ape 400
DarthBot 400
Darth_Nitro1138 400
Darth_Sprocket 400
Darth Tall 400
DarthToeJam 400
war_monger 400
forever_jedi 400
Jango10 400
Lord_DarthSatanus 400
Shen_Wa 400
vong333 400
The_Force_Anomlay 400
tephjo 400
JMRycheBa-Gai 400
segask 400
T16Skyhopper 400
ObiWanCon 399
darthchickenwing 395
royalguard96 391
Happy Ninja 385-420
Bowen 385-500
Xzar-Teel 385-410
ctumole 380-410
DarthTapion 380-400
DarthNomis 380
Texas_Jedi 375-400
Darth_Zoo 375
lenlenlen1 375
vansmak 375
Darth_Menace 372
jonas_jade 370-500
anakinsrightarm 370
Greymarch10 370
JohnWesleyDowney 370
TEXAS 370
The_General_Grievous 370
sithscotti418 362
DarthTornado 360
DarthBinks2004 350-500
Gobi-1 350-450
DarthSithLord 350-420
grotonofgroton 350-415
classixboy 350-400
denseyjedi 350-400
olpbrandon07 350-400
redsabreanakin 350-400
Seigiryu 350-400
SirKnightLord 350-400
stormcloud8 350-400
DARK

 

DamonD Thank you for the numbers.

 

DamonD you RULE

Amazing piece of work man, congrats!!!

 

I...never knew I had it in me

 

Impressive...most impressive.

 

opening day: 38
Friday: 30
Saturday: 37
Sunday: 29
3 day weekend: 96
4 day: 134
Domestic Total: 340
Overseas: 380
WorldWide: 720

 

Got it, thank you.

 

hey damon, you forgot mine!

opening day- 60 m

3 day weekend- 165 m

4 day- 225 m

us total- 722.9 m

international- 1b 84.4m

worldwide total- 1b 807.3

 

Box Office Mojo, shows that RoTS will open in 3700 theaters!! If this indeed ends up being how many locations get this movie it is a very good sign, and is a big jump over how many locations Clones and Menace opened at. Menace opened in I believe around 2950 locations and Clones in around 3160.

It appears Lucas has eased up on how many theater will get Sith, and this could mean an even bigger opening weekend. I think I'm still gonna stick with my original prediction though

 

Or the theatres have been upgraded since.

I'll say 350m (and 82cents) for the US.

 

The 3700 count is much larger than the 3400-or-so I hoped for at best. That'll actually be the 10th widest release in US film history.

I think it's a dead cert that ROTS will be making extremely big money in the first few days, particularly.

 

Well I think that the positive review from Ebert and Roeper will drive a lot of business. That would have hurt things to get a thumbs down from one of them. Biggest critical barrier has been hurdled.

On the other hand, I found the movie depressing (and I love depressing movies!) which could hurt box office as Lucas has been saying all along. I expected the movie to leave me with a 'That Was Fun!' feeling but instead it left me sad. That could hurt return business.

 

On the other hand, Titanic is the biggest movie of all time...

 

ROTS box office will be driven by repeat SW fans and repeat teenagers....I don't think the darkness of the film will hold much sway over these demographics...i think it will top 375, maybe 400 million

 

Titanic was sad and ended with death, but ROTS is sad in a very dark way. It's quite a different feeling. I had thought of the Titanic comparison, but it's not the same. Stupidity leads to the tragedy in Titanic, unspeakable acts lead to the tragedy in ROTS.

That being said, I love dark movies so who knows what this one will do!

 

Here are my predictions:

Opening day: 33 million
Weekend (Fri-Sun): 81 million
4-day (Thurs-Sun): 114 million
US Total: 440 million
International Total: 492 million
Worldwide Total: 950 million

 

Opening day: 70 million
Weekend (Fri-Sun): 200 million
4-day (Thurs-Sun): 70 million
US Total: 460 million
International Total: 490 million
Worldwide Total: 900 million

 

Let's try to get this onto page 7 so I post the updated list

 

ok.

 

Thanks

 

Want some more help?

 

I'll do my fair share of helping

 

i want to see the updated list so lets get to page 7

 

to help to get to page 7 ill make an easy topic so people dont spam.

How long do you think ROTS will stay in theatures?