Senate Fiscal Cliff Doomsday Countdown Thread

oh, it's going to be horrible, for sure. and the longer they let it go on, the more damage it will do. i dunno, maybe some extra pain will do everyone some good. i suppose.

 

Well, it's the GOP who want spending cuts and Medicare cuts... they're the ones who want it, so they should propose it, right? That's how negotiations usually work.

Obama made the big mistake throughout his first term that he would continually start with the compromise, instead of starting with what he would want.

Though Obama has said he's willing to consider up to a $400 billion cut with Medicare, but the GOP has to tell him their ideas, since that's what they've been demanding. Or have they actually had no ideas all along?

Yeah, those are the things I'm worried about (those automatic cuts they keep getting postponed, and the stock market).

But that's also the reason why I think this will be done before Christmas Eve. They're not going to leave this to the next Congress, they're not going to go home until it's done, and they'll want to be home for Christmas. It's a whole month, plenty of time for them to cave, it's such a long time in politics.

I mean, look at what happened just in this November:
*Romney deciding to campaign in Pennsylvania at the last minute
*Obama re-elected
*same-sex marriage and marijuana legalized by referendum for the first time
*Democrats gain in the House and Senate
*the Susan Rice controversy storyline
*the David Petraeus love pentagon of affairs and shirtless FBI agent emails
*Romney "gifts" comments
*Republicans saying it's time to rethink their positions on taxes and immigration
*the Gaza war starting and ending
*Palestine being recognized by the UN
*the constitutional crisis in Egypt
*Hurricane Sandy aftermath
*the snowstorm
*Obama's trip to Southeast Asia
*Obama and Romney meeting in the White House
etc.

A lot can happen in a month!

 

Almost half of those things are just one thing that was scheduled four years in advance and mandated by law.

 

Just saying a lot can happen in a month, plenty of time to get an agreement on the fiscal cliff.

I feel really good about this. This atmosphere is so much different than the debt ceiling talks, and I was one of the first who believed the GOP would actually be crazy enough to try what they tried there. I feel like Obama and the Democrats are about to score some huge policy and political victories.

 

Republicans: we don't need to present a plan on the fiscal cliff

And they say Obama isn't being serious? because his plan is what he campaigned on and won on?

 

Like I said: we're going over.

Time to consider shorting the major indices. The Jan 13 DIA/SPY puts are looking mighty fine right about now...

...traders of the world, unite!

Peace,

V-03

 

see you guys at the bottom! unless my head splits open and i bleed to death, that is. do you guys know if the free head injury auto-healing technology part of obamacare will be implemented by the first of the year?

 

It just shows the Republicans have no plan, even easier for them to cave in without a plan. But you'd think they'd be a little more prepared? This would have happened no matter who won the election. Their hypocrisy has no bounds.

 

This is just disgusting to no end. The GOP plan in tax cuts for rich folks, and a complete modification to entitlements with Social Security as the target. They want the trillions of dollars in the SS trust fund and are blatant about it. On and on. And tens of millions voted for the GOP? Half this country is dumb/fooled.

 

Some progress...

Dire headlines about the ongoing "fiscal cliff" debate might give the impression that the country is destined for a harrowing economic jolt. But buried in the stories and slightly visible behind the public posturing, signs are emerging that a deal is possible.​

​

House Republican leaders on Monday presented a plan to the White House that included an extension of all the Bush tax cuts, steep changes to Medicare and large cuts to mandatory and discretionary spending. The White House promptly rejected it as a stale GOP wish list that would hurt the middle class.​

​

In private, however, both sides sounded decidedly more optimistic. The Republican offer provides negotiators with a framework to match the one presented by President Barack Obama's administration last week. And while the two presentations are dramatically different, negotiators can now begin trading bits and pieces in hopes of finding a resolution before the end of the year.​

​

A top administration official agreed that Monday represented a "measure of progress," adding the belief that the president has significant leverage to move the House GOP off of its proposal. Similarly, a top House Republican aide said it is “definitely” progress that the White House and GOP leaders have now put forward opening bids, saying the administration still has retreat from its “absurd and ridiculous” starting point.​

​

"Everybody in Washington knows there's certain choreographed steps that you have to go through when you have to get a deal, and part of that is the public admonitions of the other side," said the GOP aide. "But we don't want to take us off the cliff. We do want a deal."​

​

Though neither side would offer much detail about concessions they would be willing to make, the hypothetical next steps in the negotiating process aren't difficult to envision. The House GOP, for example, has offered that any deal include a change in the way the inflation is measured. Republicans may be forced to drop that idea as it violates the president’s pledge to consider reforms that would affect Social Security outside of the fiscal cliff negotiations. A separate GOP proposal to raise the eligibility age of Medicare may be more palatable to Obama -- so long as it is done over the course of several decades -- as he agreed to something similar when he and House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) attempted to negotiate a grand bargain in the summer of 2011.​

​

The White House has chips to give up itself. It has called for additional stimulus spending -- a request that could meet the chopping block in subsequent negotiations. The president has also asked Boehner to cede full control of the debt ceiling, a congressional power with which the speaker likely will not part. Several congressional Democratic aides predicted that provision would be sacrificed by the White House.​

An agreement will require each side to massage bruised feelings from their respective bases, aides said. The difficult task will remain bridging the divide over tax rates. A top Senate Democratic aide, who expressed optimism following the GOP's letter to the president, said "a deal can fall into place very quickly” if Republicans "rip the Band Aid off on tax rates." Democrats also insist that if Boehner ends up keeping authority over the debt ceiling, he at least must pass a bill to raise the ceiling as part of the final deal.​

​

Some senators who are part of the bipartisan "Gang of Eight," which has been working on its own ideas based largely on the Simpson-Bowles plan, said they saw the competing offers as a sign of progress as well.​

​

"It is," said Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.), calling Boehner's proposal "exactly in accord with the philosophical position of the Gang of Eight."​

​

Sen. Kent Conrad (D-N.D.), another member of the group, said the GOP proposal was not big enough or balanced enough with revenue, but acknowledged that “it's another step along the way, and hopefully it can be built upon to get to a conclusion that would be more balanced and bigger.”​

 

Come on. Everyone in this thread knows that the SS trust fund is a complete and total fiction. It's a line on a ledger sheet and nothing more. The "trillions of dollars in the SS trust fund" and already been spent, almost as quickly as they were put in there in the first place.

The SS trust fund exists only as bonds (i.e. debt) that the government sold itself. It is only real if it is accompanied by limited government spending, which hasn't happened no matter who is in power. It only has real value if the bonds in the trust fund were in place of borrowing that same money from elsewhere. Wikipedia provides a good summary, in the form of two scenarios:

Based on the current situation of Social Security and the overall budget, it's pretty clear that Scenario 1 is essentially what is happening.

 

If the fiscal cliff is reached do we get to put on sports equipment armor and ride around sporting Mohawks like Mad Max?

 

do you think if i spanked everybody up there hard enough they'd pick up simpson-bowles again?

 

whoa there, greenspan. seems to me sitting at home watching The Simpsons and smoking a bowl (of tobacco, mods!) might be more your speed

but seriously folks the sovereign debt of the world's last superpower is a joke and all this nonsense is a bipartisan effort to force austerity and deprive the people of the united states of what little social safety net we still have. the debt will (continue to be) passed on to individuals wherever possible, not payed down in any meaningful sense. in order to do that they'd have to destroy wealth, and they're not going to do that

 

i don't actually believe it's ever going to be paid down in any significant sense, i'm just looking for an opportunity to mass-spank some balloon-headed pols. maybe i should just wait until the real crash or the inevitable default or both. perhaps you could use the opportunity to follow through on your destruction of wealth agenda!

 

It'll get monetized away through quantitative easing until we get runaway inflation, the dollar collapses, or both. It will never be paid back with sound money, period.

It can't. To do so would require a massive liquidation and deflation, which our politicians will never allow to happen.

Peace,

V-03

 

Why do you think gun controls are as relaxed as possible? We're all going to be needing them to fend off roving packs of bandits/feral dogs in a few months.

 

you meanie! how could you shoot thoes adorable feral dogs!



have you no heart!

 

Have you ever watched them eat? They are no domestic pets, that's for sure....

 

yay!! (and we're still several weeks before a decision needs to be made, plenty of time for more to join)

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/12/05/gop-senator-backs-tax-rate-hike-on-wealthy/

In a significant development in the fiscal cliff standoff, Republican Sen. Tom Coburn, a leading deficit hawk, said Wednesday he would support higher tax rates on wealthier Americans as part of a broader deal with President Barack Obama and congressional Democrats to avoid the crisis.

"I know we have to raise revenue," the senator from Oklahoma told MSNBC. "I don't really care which way we do it. Actually, I would rather see rates go up than do it the other way, because it gives us a greater chance to reform the tax code and broaden the base in the future."

Coburn, who served on the Simpson-Bowles fiscal commission and participated in the Gang of Six deficit talks, was one of the first Republicans a couple of years to embrace raising revenue to reduce the deficit. At that time, he wanted to do it through reforming the tax code by eliminating loopholes and deductions that he argued favored the rich and powerful. But now he appears to be the first GOP senator to say publicly he would back increasing the tax rates on the wealthy, as long as that increase is coupled with spending cuts and entitlement reforms.

Coburn thinks its better to raise rates now, which will generate the money needed to get beyond the fiscal cliff and then negotiate broad reforms to the tax code – such as eliminating deductions and loopholes – that both Republicans and Democrats argue is necessary.

He is worried that if some reforms are made now as part of the fiscal cliff talks, Congress might never return to the table to do comprehensive reform.

Not surprisingly, Democrats seized on Coburn's unexpected new position.

"Senator Coburn is an unquestioned conservative," said Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-New York, in a news release. "If he doesn't provide cover for the Republicans to finally shift on tax rates, I don't know who does."

"Welcome to the Club," read a news release issued by House Democrats.​

 

uhhhhh...

 

Boehner: the rich have to pay more in taxes (hasn't conceded on the rates yet, though some Republicans have, and we still have over 3 weeks)
http://www.cnn.com/2012/12/05/politics/fiscal-cliff/index.html

There's also talk that McConnell is willing to let the Senate vote on Obama's plan without threatening a filibuster, letting it be a vote that depends on a simple majority, so they won't need 60 votes. (Which probably isn't necessary, since it will have passsed with House Republicans anyways)

This is happening much faster than I thought!

At this rate, Obama may even get the infrastructure spending he wants and get rid of the debt ceiling. (Ok, maybe that's a little too optimistic )

Expect the media to continue to scare people, making it seem like Congress is deadlocked and doom is upon us. Just like how they were claiming how close the presidential election would be. It's simply good for their ratings.

 

Fixed.

 

Well, I just used a tax preparation calculator using the 'fiscal cliff' scenario and if the Bush Era tax cuts expire on everybody, I'll owe about $500 more in taxes in 2013. CRAP!!!

 

I like your version better .