ST The Last Jedi Box Office Discussion (see warning on page 307 before posting)

At least it appears that TLJ will be a bigger pop culture event than Stranger Things. For a while, I wasn't sure.

 

I hadn't been following the numbers, but just for kicks I just looked up the show-times for opening night at the theater I go to, and the showing which I will be attending (7:30) is already sold out. That may seem normal, since it is the first 2D showing; but if my memory is correct, with TFA that same showing did not sell out until a week or so before TFA's release. I guess all the people who enjoyed TFA are really excited and eager to see the sequel. Cool!

 

I picked a zip code fairly far from me (metro Cleveland, west side, 44145) and sampled the reserve seating shows the night of the 14th.

He's right, at least for my decidedly unscientific sample. They're mostly all sold out. If seats remain, they're a few crappy ones near the front. I found one theater that has a 130am show that still is mostly empty. Everything else is pretty packed.

On another note, this exercise inspired me to go check the theater where I'm seeing TLJ on the 14th, and lo and behold, 4 seats in the absolute dead-smack center of the house had come open. So I bought those puppies and will ask for a refund for the seats I already had, which were pretty good, but not THAT good.

If you're in metro Orlando and want two tickets (E6, E7) to the 6pm fan event at the AMC Altamonte 18 (the Dolby Atmos theater), PM me.

Anyway, thanks jedijax!

 

It seems that 7:00-9:00 is the critical high demand time. And it all depends on how many shows a theater has in that time-frame. In some theaters, 10:00-midnight has a LOT of tickets sold.

And Real-D are the lowest in demand. IMAX is doing well but the supply is MUCH more scant than it was for TFA. Believe it or not, the biggest $ being made is for regular 2D shows. Much more of them and they are going fast in the hours I listed.

As for Friday, I only peeked at a few but what I saw was that the daytime shows are just not selling yet. (the operative word is "yet"). So, depending on just how many seats are available on Thursday by the time the movie comes out, I'd suspect that Friday will be selling the same times as Thursday like hotcakes. In other words, Friday's numbers will probably slightly higher than Thursday previews or very close. I don't expect $60 million on Friday. Maybe somewhere in the $50's.

I predict something like this in all honesty:
Thursday: $45-$50 million
Friday: $50-$55 million
OD: $95-$105 million.

Saturday will be interesting. TFA made a ridiculous $69 million. If the %'s hold up like I just posted, then a $60 million Saturday is reachable. If WOM is through the roof it could be a bit higher BUT the same reasons for the lower #'s for OD will factor into Saturday as well. So I'm thinking $60 million is a good projection for Saturday.

Sunday will be more interesting. It's very early and most people have to work or go to school the next day. This was much less the case for TFA. It can be as low as in the $40's for Sunday but I probably won't go lower than $45 million UNLESS WOM and reviews are lukewarm or even bad. I don't predict that. Could be around $50 million but it won't hit the levels of TFA's first Sunday.Sundays won't be so kind to TLJ just because of the way the calendar works.

OW: $200 million-$215 million

Boom! Still in the same range we've all been saying. I make a disclaimer about being under $200 million just because of unforeseen events. Nothing is ever certain.

 

One of my best friends, a radiologist, lives in the area and saw Dunkirk at that theater! I texted him that I know someone who has 2 good tickets. He is actually off work that day too ironically he said. He’s not a big fan or anything though so I dunno but he should do it! He told me he saw Dunkirk at that theater.

 

For TFA I was able to get tickets for opening day easily. I think I got them the week before. I figured it would be the same this year, so I didn't bother pre-ordering the tickets. Well, last night I checked my theater on Fandango just for fun and every single showing I could get to (I'm not a big enough fan to go see the movie at 7am on a Saturday, sorry. I like my sleep!!) was sold out. And not just Friday, I'm talking the entire weekend. Needless to say, I'm not able to see TLJ until Monday night.

So yeah, while I can't see it topping TFA's total box office, I think it definitely has a shot at beating TFA's OW, if my theater is indicative of anything.

 

Guidman

Yeah you are essentially being upcharged for the recliner seat and the convenience of having reserved seats. I took my boys to a new(er) AMC since we were meeting my buddy and his kid there. For a 2:00 PM showing on a weekday, my ticket was $10.23. And that was for a standard 2D film. Compare that to the under $8.00 I would paid at the Cinemark we typically go to at the same time. I get the concept of it espeically where we sat which was the corner table section at the end of each row but to be honest I am much more comfortable with just general stadium style seating with your typcial chair.

jedijax

Not surprised at all 2D is selling better then 3D. It was really a fade that died out almost soon as it started. And IMAX will die off too well at least the wanna be IMAX screens they have built recently. Like by my house there is several spots that have an IMAX screen but it really isn't one; just a little bit bigger then your normal ones. Only the massive AMC by us has a one truly IMAX screen that is gigantic. That one tbh is honestly always full because it truly is an IMAX screen. It's so big they had to take out some of the front rows when they converted the old theater to an IMAX one since the screen is so big.

Btw Justice League was actually pretty entertaining all things being equal but that is the thing. Like I told my buddy as we walk out with the kids (who all love it) a movie that literally has the main parts to the Justice League in it (minus Green Lantern) should be way better then pretty entertaining. Now you compare that to Thor 3 which my wife and I saw last nite after the kiddies went down and my parents came home to watch which was fabulous even though it's a solo film about one of their B-players. Just shows you the gap still between Marvel and DCEU.

Edit - And for what it's worth, the movie was pretty crowded. Not packed but a nice sized crowd especially for 2 PM on Thanksgiving Eve. But to be fair the theater we went to is isnanely popular as it's the newest and grandest theater in a very big suburban area.

 

Yeah I think it honestly depends on where you are. Our Century switched to recliner seats and they’re still the cheapest theater around honestly. I don’t think they raised prices at all. It was simply a way to increase traffic to the theater.

IMAX isn’t going anywhere, sorry. You could say Portland doesn’t have one gigantic screen because they’re all “Lie Max” but who cares?! That’s kind of the point - we DON’T have one big huge screen so those are the 3 best we have. Also I have to say it’s an education thing and maybe they need to do a better job educating people who don’t go to movies often why IMAX is worth it. I have to laugh out loud at the bigger screen comments. If someone really thinks IMAX costs more because of “a bigger screen” they don’t know anything about the company or technology. IMAX auditoriums are very carefully built to exacting standards to the point where even AC vents that run too noisy aren’t allowed. The systems are remotely monitored DAILY. The projection system is vastly superior which is why the 3D looks amazing in IMAX. People didn’t get tired of 3D, it isn’t that it’s a fad, it’s that RealD is terrible technology. I’m the biggest 3D fan you could meet and I REFUSE to watch a single movie in RealD ever. I would rather not see it. It makes the image way too dark. The average moviegoer doesn’t know anything about projection standards or they don’t have personal standards when watching a movie. Otherwise they wouldn’t be satisfied with Suburban Mall Auditorium 6 for opening night if Star Wars. The biggest bonus to IMAX is the incredible sound systems and clear projection, NOT the size of the screen, which is merely a bonus. In my experience 80% of all regular theaters play their movies too quiet and are built for casuals and old people who don’t know the difference because their dinky 40” TV hangs above the fireplace (where a TV should never, ever go!) and they have a sound bar attached. Hey if that’s what you can afford that’s fine but you should demand for $10+ per ticket a great experience in theaters. Since a lot of people aren’t getting that, they rightfully don’t go to cinemas much. If you go to an IMAX theater you will always have the same great experience in any city on any screen anywhere in the world. I can’t say that about the lousy neighborhood theaters. I dread going to them at all. I try to see almost everything in IMAX but some movies aren’t in the format of course. IMAX continues to grow and that trend will continue as cinema fans like me will accept no less.

 

I have to be honest, when the Santikos 19 IMAX (now Regal) opened 5 minutes from us 10 years ago, the first thing that came to my mind was "oh cool! I get to watch those awesome IMAX documentaries without having to go to a museum or aquarium" not realizing they were for actual movies. I thought "okay that's weird, who wants to see a theatrical movie in IMAX?". TLJ will be my first of the kind in IMAX 3D.

 

you are in for a treat..... IMAX states before the film starts SEE A MOVIE OR BE PART OF ONE... funny thing its true...all of it (see what i did there )..... never seen a crisper picture of ear blowing but detailed sound

 

With all the talk about this Star Wars thing, people seem to be forgeting about the year's biggest tentpole: Jumanji, starring The Dwayne. Can't make up my mind on whether it'll make 1 billion or 2 billion.

 

You made a couple of typos. I fixed it for ya!

 

Real D is awful. Too dark, bad picture quality, postal stamp sized screens.

The LieMAX screen is about 22m x 16 m. A typical non-IMAX screen is 12m x 5m.

LieMAX is way larger, has much better image and audio quality, and the 3D is clear, bright and pops much more.

 

Is that ww or just domeafic?

 

Good question. I was thinking worldwide, but now I believe it might actually hit 1.8 billion domestic and 3-4 billion worldwide. It's a Jumanji remake we're talking about, after all.

In other words, James Cameron might have some trouble sleeping right now. With this kind of juggernaut approaching, his days as box office king are numbered.

 

I know you were joking - but I find it ironic that the definition of "box office king" changed between Avatar and TFA. That title used to related to the U.S. domestic #1, but somehow got changed when TFA came along.

 

Maybe the split title approach used in boxing should be adopted.

 

Oh, btw, HAPPY THANKSGIVING EVERYONE!!!

 

Tfa has the us uk and sweeden titles if i recall

Happy turkey day to my fellow american posters

 

Happy Thanksgiving (and Steam Sales) everyone.

 

No cool Thanksgiving day (or week) trailers lined up. I miss that from 2015. No Infinity Wars or Jurassic World2 trailers. They're all waiting for TLJ. Those cheeky opportunistis! lol

 

Mike zeroeh reported this morning abc is having a thing for tlj duting its holiday special a week from now...did the same thing for rogue one but that was thanksgiving night

 

First week of December is when those two trailers drop.

 

raefinnpoe

JW was more like a reboot & TFA was 32 years later so what I was really meaning was a sequel only a few years apart

 

We're now past Thanksgiving heading into critical mode. Don't want this thread to become buried. Not now.

So....Coco looks to make at least $70 million over the 5-day holiday. Will probably see it today with the fam.

Gotta talk about something lol.