Solo Solo box-office discussion

If it does under perform financially, I don't think you can blame the SJW rubbish. Most "normal" people have no idea any of that crap is going on. I don't think it can really be blamed on the "backlash" to TLJ, either (which probably isn't really that great in the real world). I think the biggest two factors are the competition, and the fact that its coming out five months after another SW film. I've said it before, and I know it’s just my opinion, but SW isn't Marvel. Marvel can get away with that because, I think, it’s almost like a comic book format. I think fatigue is playing a role here. I also think the long-ish gap now till December 2019 will work wonders not only for us, but for the general cinemagoers too. It will give everyone time to just chill and breathe for a bit. The alt-right #### heads may even move on, too. But I really think Disney and Lucasfilm need to think long and hard whether releasing SW films so close to each other is something they should do again.

The general rule of thumb has always been that a film needs to make about 2.5 its budget in order to be deemed safe. So if the 250 million figure is correct, Solo would need to make about 630 million at a minimum.

 

No. Are you paid by LF? I like her balanced analysis because sometimes it gets to bifurcated up in here. And! because Grace is East coast press. I find west coast press and bloggers being invited to premiers mollifies their voices a bit.

 

Sorry but your argument falls apart there when you started basing your facts on things that had a 100 hundred other factors involved other than Kathleen Kennedy.

Infinity War opened to an even bigger OW audience than TFA and look it is not even going to beat Black Panther domestically. Guess the man in charge of Marvel needs to get fired. People aren't playing with toys s much across the board. Toy Sales in general are falling off.

Oh and you absolutely do take the past three movies success into affect. A leader that didn't would be the one that would need to be fired.

 

I cant, stand anything she does , i find her analysis completely out of left field and when she started the oaid critic fiasco ajd going after John Campea last year it was ridiculous. She just seems bitter about being fired by Marvel. I refuse to watch any of her content.

 

You continuously try to post her videos. Outside of the obvious haters like Geeks and Gamers she is one of the worst Star Wars voices on you tube. I have absolutely no desire to listen to a single word she says. I'd rather listen to Mike Zeroh than her. If I am going to listen to a channel like that I am going to listen to a person like John Campea who focuses on legit info and not hearsay and rumors like she does.

 

I think a 5/ 6 month gap is definitely too short - and they need to think long and hard about whether that's a good model for SW

 

Yeah, gotta say the scheduling seems like the biggest single culprit here, for all the reasons people have laid out about competition, only a five month gap since the last one, four movies in two and a half years etc.

I would also add though that Lucasfilm's policy of never promoting two films at once likely made this an even bigger problem, because it meant that the advertising couldn't really get off the ground until February. This was both very late for a Star Wars movie AND simultaneously too close to the last one, meaning people were going "Wait... another one.... already??" So it ended up being the worst of both worlds.

 

I think they still could do two movies a year but if they do they need to start making them for say 100 or a 150m instead of 250m. They can still go all out with the episodic movies but other less significant projects need to be made a little cheaper in my opinion.

@The Raddinator if they made Solo for say 100m less than getting a 500m return would be completely fine. There definitely is still a market for having two movies a year. But not a market for having two movies a year that cost 250m.

 

Half of RO ....

 

We'll get the actuals on Tuesday but that's a 'true' Friday of ($35.63M - $14.1M thursday preview) $21.53M.

 

As President of Lucasfilm, Kennedy is absolutely accountable for the results under her watch. She can't control every factor of the market environment but she's responsible for making the decisions on how to make money under that environment. If not personally, hiring and firing the people who do make those decisions. Since you only mentioned toy sales as a factor, if toy sales are going down across the board as you say, it's still on her that the toys were overproduced for that market.

If the person at the top isn't accountable, who is?

 

@Satipo would a Star Wars movie made for say 150m instead of 250m have much impact on the type of stories we have gotten so far? Would they have to start limiting how much space action there was or perhaps have a movie take place all on one planet instead of jumping around to three or four planets like we are used to see them doing in the films?

@TheCloneWarsForever the person at the top is still responsible but you don't jump to rash conclusions at the same time. Star Wars so far has been a massive success under Kennedy. And even the movie people are jumping on right now isn't a flop. It may end underperforming slightly but not anywhere close to how badly some are trying to make it sound. It also wasn't even an extremely important movie either. Out of the four released so far it is easily the least important movie made so far.

THe best way to destroy a business is to make rash decisions and start attempting to change things as soon as any bump in the road arises.

 

its the same number as already was projected late last night. Although Rth on Box Office Theory`s early ones were not so spot on this time.

Now we will have to see if the good WOM has any effect on Saturday. Now the families are moving in as well...

 

The short time gap is definitely a culprit but I think lack of overall enthusiasm for Star Wars in the general audience after TLJ is playing a role too. I'm not talking about the politically motivated alt-right internet types, but rather the casual fans that don't follow these things but were "meh" on TLJ (of which I know a few).

 

Probably the west coast coming in lower than the east.

 

Well one problem here is that you are demanding that she be 'absolutely accountable for the results under her watch'.... as long as those results are bad. When they are good, you claim that it's actually all just inherited good will and totally about other people and therefore she doesn't deserve any credit after all.

 

It looks like the drops overseas are worse its hard to say,but this might make 400-500 max now

 

Y'all DO remember that Disney spent 4 billion on buying the rights to Star Wars ALONE, right? Plus hundreds of millions of dollars making a new Star Wars section of Disney World, plus hundreds of millions of dollars in budgets for each film and millions in marketing for each one (Superbowl spots ain't cheap). The 4 billion from the films so far HAVE NOT recouped any of those financial investments, even with toy and home release sales included, and ANY sign that the SW franchise is getting fatigued after only 4 years of new content is gonna scare the absolute crap out of investors, considering how much money they've poured into the brand name.

So these box office receipts, along with dropping toy and home releae sales, WILL be scaring them

 

I don't want to drag the thread further off topic so I'll just leave with this: while there have been good results and bad results (and yes, as President, she gets the credit and blame for both), the trend has been downward. That's what I meant about the rear view mirror thinking. It's not about emphasizing the bad over the good, it's about emphasizing current results over past results.

 

This. People talk about the $4 billion like it was all profit and Disney already made back its investment. Not even close. If LF isn’t seriously concerned about declining revenue due to declining interest, it’s run by incompetents. If Solo was an isolated example, that would be one thing, but it lines up with declining merchandise sales and TLJ underperforming after that insane OW (I’m not trying to debate this as I know people insist that it didn’t but I think to LF it did) and making headlines for controversy, not for being beloved. This isn’t a trend any corporation should be thrilled by.

 

Cough Cough. Almost 5 billion dollars made over four movies. Cough. Cough. Oh but none of that should be attributed to Kennedy.

 

TFA
thu: $57,000,000 (estimate)
fri: $62,119,282 (minus thursday)
sat: $68,294,204
sun: $60,553,189

RO
thu: $29,000,000 (estimate)
fri: $42,094,394 (minus thursday)
sat: $46,308,115
sun: $37,679,172

TLJ
thu: $45,000,000 (estimate)
fri: $59,684,491 (minus thursday)
sat: $63,993,205
sun: $51,331,888

Solo
thu: $14,100,000 (estimate)
fri: $21,530,000 (estimate minus thursday)
sat: TBD
sun: TBD

 

I like to see numbers please. Cold facts please. Since you are so categoric in your post i will let you sweat and work hard for your evidence.

Toy sales and DVD sales are down in general. Your «neighboors» kid is not playing with action figures any more. Its all iPad and social media.

 

It would have an effect I imagine. 150 is still a lot, but I think you would see a reduction in scope. It would be worth looking at other films with lower budgets to see how they stack up. I dunno, for me, this one felt a little cheap in parts already (looking at you Kessel mines section). It really depends on what kind of story they want to tell.

To those thinking KK needs to go - who would you replace her with, on what grounds, and if it were up to you, please outline how you would turn this "dead" franchise around.