Author Topic: The Oscar Race: Oscar Predictions: Best Original Screenplay
Yodas-evil-twin 
Registered: Jun '05
46253_TFN Turns "10"
Date Posted: 1/15/08 5:48pm Subject: RE: The Oscar Race: EW's Oscar Nominations - Date Edited: 1/15/08 5:52pm (1 edits total) Edited By: Yodas-evil-twin
I'm all in favor axing Michael Clayton in exchange for American Gangster, Zodiac, or The Diving Bell and The Butterfly if its not eligible for best foreign language film.

 

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Hammurabi 
Registered: Jan '07
44291_Han Solo
Date Posted: 1/15/08 5:54pm Subject: RE: The Oscar Race: EW's Oscar Nominations
If any of those four get it, it'll be American Gangster. Bourne and Zodiac came out relatively early, and Zodiac has never had enough buzz or box office success. And I Am Legend simply lacks any critical praise that would elevate it above any other film. But Will Smith could still get a nom for Actor. I definitely think he's more likely than Gosling, even though Gosling is very talented.

 

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Zaz 
Title: Manager, The Ampitheatre
Registered: Oct '98
40038_Jawa
Date Posted: 1/16/08 11:54am Subject: RE: The Oscar Race: EW's Oscar Nominations - Date Edited: 1/16/08 12:17pm (1 edits total) Edited By: Zaz
BEST ACTRESS

"The recent rush of critics' prizes has catapulted three women to the front of the Best Actress race. JULIE CHRISTIE, who won this competition 42 years ago for Darling, has racked up 13 awards so far for her sensitive portrayal of an Alzheimer's patient in Away From Her. Close behind is Juno's precocious ELLEN PAGE, who has nabbed nine early awards and will surely become one of the youngest nominees ever in this category. And MARION COTILLARD's remarkable transformation into singer Edith Piaf in La Vie en Rose has earned her the four critics' prizes Christie and Page haven't hogged.

That leaves six worthy actresses, all of whom have won or been nominated before, battling for two spots on the ballot. Keira Knightley exhibited new nuance as a 1930s ice queen in Atonement but lacks the screen time necessary to make a sufficient impression on voters. Likewise, Sweeney Todd's Helena Bonham Carter made for a wonderfully whimsical singing meat-pie maker, but her part was significantly cut down from Stephen Sondheim's musical in favor of Johnny Depp's title character. Cate Blanchett landed on the short lists of the Broadcast Film Critics Association, the SAG Awards, and the Golden Globes for Elizabeth: The Golden Age, but the film's poor critical and commercial reception — not to mention her sure-thing Supporting Actress nomination for I'm Not There this year — means her feisty queen may not be re-crowned by the Academy. The biggest hit in the race is Enchanted, featuring the adorable Amy Adams in her first lead role, but voters may find the whole animated-princess thing too lightweight. In that case, two Academy favorites from smaller films may fill out the category: Eight years after winning Best Supporting Actress for Girl, Interrupted, ANGELINA JOLIE anchored A Mighty Heart with a performance so strong that it's likely to counteract the film's weak box office showing. And then there's LAURA LINNEY. She's been shut out of the pre-Oscar awards circle so far, but we're betting (and, okay, hoping) that once voters pop The Savages into their DVD players, they'll realize that although the twice-nominated actress has gone the brother-sister route before (in You Can Count on Me), she's never pulled off such an exquisite balance of acerbic wit and heartbreaking vulnerability.

DAVE KARGER'S PICKS FOR BEST ACTRESS:
Julie Christie, Away From Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
Laura Linney, The Savages
Ellen Page, Juno"


I don't see how you can leave off Knightley.

 

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KnightWriter 
Title:
Administrator Emeritus

Registered: Nov '01
39907_Obi-Wan Kenobi
Date Posted: 1/16/08 7:48pm Subject: RE: The Oscar Race: EW's Oscar Nominations: Best Actress
Christie was sublime in Away From Her. I need to see Juno, but Christie deserves strong consideration for the Oscar. It would be fascinating to see her win one so long after her first.

 

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Zaz 
Title: Manager, The Ampitheatre
Registered: Oct '98
40038_Jawa
Date Posted: 1/17/08 12:16pm Subject: RE: The Oscar Race: EW's Oscar Nominations: Best Actress
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

"This year, the question ''Who will get a Best Supporting Actor nomination?'' ought to be replaced by ''Who are the four poor shlubs who'll have to compete against JAVIER BARDEM?'' Having racked up 18 critics' prizes to date, the No Country for Old Men villain is without a doubt the cattle-killer-thingy-wielding guy to beat.

Not that there aren't other worthy scene-stealers to fill the rest of the slate. Two years after taking home the Best Actor prize for Capote, PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN was a walking firecracker as a short-fused CIA agent in Charlie Wilson's War. TOM WILKINSON, a past lead-actor nominee for In the Bedroom, was equally memorable as Michael Clayton's brilliant, disturbed corporate attorney. And although he doesn't even show up until almost the two-hour mark of Into the Wild, 82-year-old veteran HAL HOLBROOK should finally earn his first Oscar nomination for his heartrending turn as a retiree who befriends a doomed young traveler.

But what about that last slot? John Travolta picked up a Globe nomination for his gender-bending work as Hairspray matriarch Edna Turnblad, but the performance may be too divisive to make the top five. A year after playing Little Miss Sunshine's mute big brother, Paul Dano ranted and raved impressively as There Will Be Blood's hellfire preacher, but his costar, Daniel Day-Lewis, seems to be the focal point for that film's buzz in the acting categories. Max von Sydow made the most of his limited screen time as the estranged father in The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, but an extra scene or two would have helped. Ben Foster's vividly freaky turn as Russell Crowe's loyal henchman in 3:10 to Yuma has been overlooked by all the major pre-Oscar groups. Jason Bateman's turn as Juno's conflicted husband is perhaps too understated for the Academy. Rescue Dawn's POW Steve Zahn would have been a stronger contender if there had been any campaign at all for the film. Perhaps the last slot goes to Bardem's No Country opponent, the perfectly droll Tommy Lee Jones, who's had a stellar year. But CASEY AFFLECK, who's picked up SAG and Globe nods for his shifty killer in The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, should score what's so far eluded his big brother, Ben: an Oscar nomination for acting.

DAVE KARGER'S PICKS FOR BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James...
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton"


I think it'll be Javier.

 

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Spiderfan 
Registered: Mar '04
43284_Digital Llama Radio
Date Posted: 1/17/08 12:19pm Subject: RE: The Oscar Race: EW's Oscar Nominations: Best Supporting Actor - Date Edited: 1/17/08 12:20pm (1 edits total) Edited By: Spiderfan
I will laugh endlessly if Casey beats his brother to an acting Oscar. tongue

 

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Yodas-evil-twin 
Registered: Jun '05
46253_TFN Turns "10"
Date Posted: 1/17/08 12:36pm Subject: RE: The Oscar Race: EW's Oscar Nominations: Best Supporting Actor
It's going to be Bardem.

 

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dp4m 
Registered: Nov '01
13878_Luke Skywalker<br>Dark Empire
Date Posted: 1/17/08 12:41pm Subject: RE: The Oscar Race: EW's Oscar Nominations: Best Supporting Actor
Yodas-evil-twin posted:
It's going to be Bardem.

 

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Reynar_Tedros 
Registered: Jul '06
7874_Gabe
Date Posted: 1/17/08 1:11pm Subject: RE: The Oscar Race: EW's Oscar Nominations: Best Supporting Actor
I agree, it will be Bardem. However, I don't agree that it should be. He put on an amazing performance in No Country, I don't doubt, but Casey Affleck was downright phenomenal in Jesse James. He was utterly hypnotizing from start to finish.

 

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Zaz 
Title: Manager, The Ampitheatre
Registered: Oct '98
40038_Jawa
Date Posted: 1/17/08 1:27pm Subject: RE: The Oscar Race: EW's Oscar Nominations: Best Supporting Actor
You may be right, but so few people had the opportunity to see it.

 

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dp4m 
Registered: Nov '01
13878_Luke Skywalker<br>Dark Empire
Date Posted: 1/17/08 2:18pm Subject: RE: The Oscar Race: EW's Oscar Nominations: Best Supporting Actor
Reynar_Tedros posted:
I agree, it will be Bardem. However, I don't agree that it should be. He put on an amazing performance in No Country, I don't doubt, but Casey Affleck was downright phenomenal in Jesse James. He was utterly hypnotizing from start to finish.


Here's the thing, and this came from more than one person: I've heard that if people saw No Country for Old Men before seeing Love In the Time Of Cholera, they were having a hard time with the latter movie due to STILL imagining Bardem as Chigurh.

THAT is really saying something, IMO.

 

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Yodas-evil-twin 
Registered: Jun '05
46253_TFN Turns "10"
Date Posted: 1/17/08 3:04pm Subject: RE: The Oscar Race: EW's Oscar Nominations: Best Supporting Actor
Reynar_Tedros posted:
I agree, it will be Bardem. However, I don't agree that it should be. He put on an amazing performance in No Country, I don't doubt, but Casey Affleck was downright phenomenal in Jesse James. He was utterly hypnotizing from start to finish.


I have to do disagree there.

 

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Zaz 
Title: Manager, The Ampitheatre
Registered: Oct '98
40038_Jawa
Date Posted: 1/18/08 12:02pm Subject: RE: The Oscar Race: EW's Oscar Nominations: Best Supporting Actor
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

"Just as with the lead-actress category, the supporting race features three sure things running laps around the rest of the pack. The critical favorite by far is AMY RYAN, whose fierce turn as Gone Baby Gone's trash-mouthed Boston mom has earned her 15 critics' awards to date. She's already a two-time Tony nominee; she'll be an Oscar one before the month is over. Three years after winning this prize for playing a showbiz legend (Katharine Hepburn) in The Aviator, CATE BLANCHETT will make the short list again for her astonishingly convincing take on another: Bob Dylan in I'm Not There. And after two decades of toiling in mostly avant-garde cinema, great Scot TILDA SWINTON finally broke through this year as a blazingly insecure corporate cog in Michael Clayton. Save her a seat at the Kodak (if the show happens, of course).

Beyond that, it's anyone's guess. The dark horses include Atonement's Vanessa Redgrave, who managed to be devastating in less than seven minutes of screen time (though seven minutes might not be enough); Julia Roberts, who made an impression with that mascara trick in Charlie Wilson's War but wasn't given much else to do; Margot at the Wedding's neurotic little sis Jennifer Jason Leigh, who'll have a tough time overcoming the film's chilly reviews; Juno scene-stealer Allison Janney, whose character may not boast the requisite arc; and No Country for Old Men's Kelly Macdonald, who shed her Scottish lilt to play Josh Brolin's mystified Texan wife but will need a major No Country sweep to make the cut.

Following five years of butt-kicking on Alias, Jennifer Garner knocked us out anew with her perfectly calibrated and surprising turn as Juno's wannabe mom. And the remarkably self-assured Saoirse Ronan showed poise and talent far beyond her 13 years as Atonement's jealous troublemaker Briony Tallis and has a Globe nomination to show for it. But we're going with the two ladies who were recognized by the SAG nominating committee: CATHERINE KEENER, a past nominee for Being John Malkovich and Capote, was immensely affecting as Into the Wild's melancholy hippie mother, while, at age 83, RUBY DEE channeled her vast experience to play Denzel Washington's wide-eyed yet domineering mother in American Gangster and stands to earn her first-ever Oscar nod.

DAVE KARGER'S PICKS FOR BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Ruby Dee, American Gangster
Catherine Keener, Into the Wild
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton"



I'm betting on Swinton

 

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Reynar_Tedros 
Registered: Jul '06
7874_Gabe
Date Posted: 1/18/08 9:33pm Subject: RE: The Oscar Race: EW's Oscar Nominations: Best Supporting Actress
Ruby Dee? Are these people serious? She was nowhere near special in American Gangster. Michelle Monaghan should get a nom for Gone Baby Gone before that woman does.

Which reminds me, where is Ed Harris? He was outstanding in Gone Baby Gone. I can understand if he doesn't get nominated due to the fierce competition he's facing, but it doesn't even seem like he's being considered, which is crazy.

 

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Captain_Typho 
Registered: Jul '03
17272_Captain Typho
Date Posted: 1/20/08 7:41am Subject: RE: The Oscar Race: EW's Oscar Nominations: Best Supporting Actress
Ok. every year I do this: here are my picks for my nominations. Keep in mind that I can only pick nominations for films I have seen, as it would be unfair to nominate something I haven't seen, and while I've seen a good share of oscar films, I haven't seen everything and in some categories, haven't seen enough to pick nominees. Here are my picks:

Best Picture of the Year:

Atonement
No Country for Old Men
Into the Wild
Pirates of the Caribbean: at World's End
There Will Be Blood

Best Director:

Joel and Ethan Coen: No Country for Old Men
Sean Penn: Into the Wild
Joe Wright: Atonement
Gore Verbinski: Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
Shekhar Kapur: Elizabeth: The Golden Age

Best Actor in a Leading Role:

Emile Hirsch: Into the Wild
Viggo Mortensen: Eastern Promises
Johnny Depp: Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
James McAvoy: Atonement
Hayden Christensen: Awake

Best Actor in a Supporting Role:

Javier Bardem: No Country for Old Men
Hal Holbrook: Into the Wild
Casey Affleck: The Assasination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Paul Dano: There Will Be Blood
Geoffrey Rush: Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End

Best Actress in a Leading Role:

Keira Knightly: Atonement
Ellen Page: Juno
Cate Blanchett: Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Nikki Blonsky: Hairspray
Helena Bonham Carter: Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

Best Actress in a Supporting Role:

Saoirse Ronan: Atonement
Tilda Swinton: Michael Clayton
Amy Ryan: Gone Baby Gone
Cate Blanchett: I'm not There
Lena Olin: Awake

Best Original Screenplay:

Joby Harold: Awake
Diablo Cody: Juno
Brad Bird: Ratatouille
Tony Gilroy: Michael Clayton
Steven Zaillian: American Gangster

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Joel and Ethan Coen: No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson: There Will Be Blood
Sean Penn: Into the Wild
Christopher Hampton: Atonement
Ted Elliott and Terry Rossio: Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End

Best Animated Picture:

Ratatouille
Bee Movie
The Simpsons Movie

Best Cinematography:

Eric Gautier: Into the Wild
Remi Adefarasin: Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Robert Elswit: There Will Be Blood
Dariusz Wolsky: Pirates of the Caribbean: at World's End
Roger Deakins: No Country for Old Men

Best Film Editing:

Jay Cassidy: Into the Wild
Stephen E. Rivkin and Craig Wood: Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
Craig McKay: Awake
Darren T. Holmes: Ratatouille
Joel and Ethan Coen and Roderick Jaynes: No Country for Old Men

Best Art Direction:

Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
Elizabeth: the Golden Age
Atonement
No Country for Old Men
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

Best Costume Design:

Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Atonement
Hairspray
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

Best Makeup:

Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
300

Best Visual Effects:

Pirates of the Caribbean: at World's End
Transformers
Spiderman 3

Best Sound Editing:

Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
Ratatouille
Transformers

Best Sound Mixing:

No Country for Old Men
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
Into the Wild

Best Original Score:

Dario Marianelli: Atonement
Michael Giacchino: Ratatouille
Hans Zimmer: Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
Howard Shore: Eastern Promises
Johnny Greenwood: There Will Be Blood

Best Original Song:

Little Wonders: Meet the Robinsons
Come So Far: Hairpsray
Guarenteed: Into the Wild
Before It's Too Late: Transformers
Walk Hard: Walk Hard: Dewey Cox Story


That's all folks. Some of you will probably be shocked with some of the choices but those are my picks based on the films I've seen this year. And yes, Pirates deserves to be nominated in every category I put it in. It is without a doubt one of the year's best pictures.

 

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