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Topic:
The MLB Discussion Thread
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Robimus
Registered:
Jul '07
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Date Posted:
7/12 10:52am
Subject:
RE: The MLB Discussion Thread
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The Twins average with RISP has been huge this year, I don't know if they're still in first place in that catgory but they are likely close. Amazing considering they still don't hit a lot of home runs, just a lot of clutch hitting up to this point.
I am hoping Brian Buscher continues to play well. Yay for former Gamecocks in the majors! Gamecocks  Interesting name.......
Buscher is the Twins third baseman of the near future if not right now. Lamb has been something of a flop. Everett, while on the DL, might be struggling to keep his job as well. With Casilla, Punto and Harris all playing well he might be on the outs.
It figures the Twins spend some money on free agents and it turns out they have better options right in their own system....  Still can't believe they got Alexi Casilla for JC Romero a couple years back, talk about great scouting. Virtually a something for nothing trade.
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AmazingB
Title: Manager Emeritus
Registered:
Jan '01
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Date Posted:
7/12 12:54pm
Subject:
RE: The MLB Discussion Thread
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I think the Cleveland Indians are proof enough that the Pythagorean doesn't work all that well ... I believe they're something like down 1 on the Pythagorean, and look at their putrid record.
One outlier doesn't prove the rule doesn't work. If anything, it means the Indians are likely to improve over the second half. Wouldn't surprise me at all if they played .500 baseball the rest of the way. I'd be absolutely shocked if the Twins play .560 the rest of the way.
It's a simple formula: the Indians lose close ball games, and win blowouts, and the numbers have no way of keeping up with that skew. It is, and always will be, a result of horrible management and a lack of clutch performers, something else numbers ignore.
I don't deny that Eric Wedge is probably a big part of it. But they're problem isn't lack of clutch performance, it's lack of performance in general from their offense. They're 11th in OBP and 9th in slugging. And they're not exactly winning a ton of blowouts this year, they're only 15-12 in games decided by 5 or more runs, but they're 6-11 on one-run games. You can chalk it up to lack of "clutch" hits. But it's bad luck as much as anything.
The Twins average with RISP has been huge this year, I don't know if they're still in first place in that catgory but they are likely close. Amazing considering they still don't hit a lot of home runs, just a lot of clutch hitting up to this point.
They're hitting .308 with runners in scoring position. I wouldn't count on them keeping it up, given that it's 30 points higher than their team average. Texas, leading the league in runs, is hitting .282 as a team, but only .273 with runners in scoring position.
Amazing.
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Lane_Winree
Registered:
Mar '06
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Date Posted:
7/12 2:38pm
Subject:
RE: The MLB Discussion Thread
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I see the Twins as a likely regression candidate. The Rays, however, seem to be playing to their ability as far as their Pythag indicates. Looking further at their players, there are several who seem to be due to regress to the mean -in a good way.-
There's a chance the Rays could play better in the second half.
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Rogue...Jedi
Title: Arena Manager
Registered:
Jan '00
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Date Posted:
7/12 3:16pm
Subject:
RE: The MLB Discussion Thread
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For another team that all the pythagorean stuff doesn't mean anything for this year, look at Atlanta. They're 5-22 in 1-run games. That includes 0-17 on the road in one run games.
The only other two teams with fewer than 10 1-run wins this year are the Mets (9-13) and the Indians (6-11), neither of which is anywhere near the atrociousness of 5-22. 'Nuff said.
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Lane_Winree
Registered:
Mar '06
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Date Posted:
7/12 4:29pm
Subject:
RE: The MLB Discussion Thread
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Expect Atlanta to regress to the mean in a good way. They can't sustain that level of awfulness.
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Rogue...Jedi
Title: Arena Manager
Registered:
Jan '00
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Date Posted:
7/12 4:32pm
Subject:
RE: The MLB Discussion Thread
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True, but it may be too late by now, which is why I favor trading Teixeira.
Also, that 0-17 in 1-run road games? It gets worse - they've actually lost 21 consecutive 1-run road games dating back to last season, a major league record. Now thats a record you DON'T want to set.
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Armenian_Jedi
Registered:
Mar '03
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Date Posted:
7/12 4:32pm
Subject:
RE: The MLB Discussion Thread
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Randy got win 290 today.
He's not reaching 300 this year, obviously, so I hope he comes back for one last season.
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Rogue...Jedi
Title: Arena Manager
Registered:
Jan '00
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Date Posted:
7/12 4:35pm
Subject:
RE: The MLB Discussion Thread
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Speaking of pitching milestones, I feel bad for Greg Maddux this year. He's pitched fairly well, with a 3.9 ERA (or so), but is an atrocious 3-7 because the Padres' offense stinks. That said, I hope he doesn't win tonight (vs Atlanta) 
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Armenian_Jedi
Registered:
Mar '03
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Date Posted:
7/12 4:38pm
Subject:
RE: The MLB Discussion Thread
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yeah, I was annoyed earlier in the season when Randy had a run of 3 games where he gave up a total of 3 runs and only got one win out of it.
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~*Member of One Mic*~
Brandon Webb Cy Young watch:
W-L: 19-5 IP: 188.2 H: 166 K: 157 BB: 46 ERA: 2.96
DBacks: 68-65 1st in NL West
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AmazingB
Title: Manager Emeritus
Registered:
Jan '01
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Date Posted:
7/12 5:00pm
Subject:
RE: The MLB Discussion Thread
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For another team that all the pythagorean stuff doesn't mean anything for this year, look at Atlanta. They're 5-22 in 1-run games. That includes 0-17 on the road in one run games.
All Pythagorean is intended to indicate is how well a team has played irrespective of its record. It's extremely meaningful when it comes to the Braves since they've obviously had some extremely bad luck this year.
Amazing.
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Rogue...Jedi
Title: Arena Manager
Registered:
Jan '00
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Date Posted:
7/12 5:16pm
Subject:
RE: The MLB Discussion Thread
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Right, thats not how I meant what I said.
I just meant that as a predictor of overall records, it doesn't work when you have a record like that for a team.
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rechedelphar
Registered:
Mar '04
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Date Posted:
7/12 5:23pm
Subject:
RE: The MLB Discussion Thread
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I remember when the HR Derny was one of my top sporting moments of the year. lol now I don't even watch it
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DarthIntegral
Title: Manager
-SWC
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Registered:
Jul '05
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Date Posted:
7/12 5:27pm
Subject:
RE: The MLB Discussion Thread
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They need to bring back the old-school style HR Derbys like they show(ed) on ESPN Classic.
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Rogue...Jedi
Title: Arena Manager
Registered:
Jan '00
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Date Posted:
7/12 5:38pm
Subject:
RE: The MLB Discussion Thread
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they've actually lost 21 consecutive 1-run road games
Correction: that should read 24 consecutive 1-run road games. Even worse.
And as for the Derby...is Brett Myers pitching?
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DarthIntegral
Title: Manager
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Registered:
Jul '05
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Date Posted:
7/12 7:16pm
Subject:
RE: The MLB Discussion Thread
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From the "When a name becomes prophecy department ..."
Grant Balfour entered the game against the Indians tonight ... and proceeded to walk the first two batters he faced.
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