| Author |
Topic:
Around the Arena (Championship Game ... topic #2 posted)
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Juliet316
Registered:
Apr '05
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Date Posted:
4/28 9:04am
Subject:
RE: Around the Arena (Game 1 Started, Topic 2 posted)
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DarthIntegral posted:
We now turn our eyes to the NBA Playoffs. A very compelling regular season (at least in the West) and several very dramatic and gripping game 1's captured our attention. Then, the rest of the series started to play out. And we now stand with seres at: 3-0 (Lakers-Nuggets), 3-1, 3-1, 3-1, 3-1, 3-1 (Cavs-Wizards, Hornets-Mavs, Jazz-Rockets, Magic-Raptors, Spurs-Suns), a surprising 2-1 (Celtics-Hawks) and an even more surprising 2-2 (Pistons-76ers).
So, I have these questions for our panel of experts:
1) Can any of the teams down 3-1, 2-1, or 3-0 actually win their series, or are all of them over?
2) Can the 76ers pull off the upset?
3) Is it too early to talk about second-round match-ups, and if not, what probably series are you most looking forward to?
Let's go Around the Arena once again ...
Honestly, I think all 3 - 1, 3 - 0 matchups are probably over, though in an era were we've seen Baseball teams come back from 0 - 3 deficits to not only win their playoff series but the World Series as well (2004 Boston Red Sox), anything is possible. The only team I think stands a passible chance are the Suns and that's really only because of the Shaq factor. I think the Cavs are going to steamroll the Wizards in Game 5 and really the Nuggets have given up. Which is disgusting given what type of talent Carmelo Anthony is. The Hawks also have no chance. I think the Celtics are ticked off over their one loss and will demolish Atlanta in the next two games.
Can the 76'ers pull off the upset. Again anything is possible especally when you go into an opponents home arena and beat them like the 76'ers did . I think they've gained a confidence in picking up those wins and tying the series. Do I think they will pull it off? I have no clue. Detroit seems to be back in control but you never know in a Playoff situation. We'll see how the next two - three games roll out.
Honestly, it is too early to talk second - round action. Everybody is still playing first round action and like I said earlier, anything can happen in a Playoff situation. I would however be interested in seeing how the Lakers will do with a team that isn't quite prepared to roll over and die for them and give them another NBA trophy, though.
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RX_Sith
Title: Monopoly host
Registered:
Mar '06
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Date Posted:
4/28 7:58pm
Subject:
RE: Around the Arena (Game 1 Started, Topic 2 posted)
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1) Can any of the teams down 3-1, 2-1, or 3-0 actually win their series, or are all of them over?
The Nuggets are definitely done (they put a fork in themselves relentlessly in their series), with the surprise coming after Denver's 102-84 loss to the Lakers in Saturday's Game 3, when a dejected Carmelo Anthony accused coach George Karl of quitting. That set talk radio and bloggers across Colorado buzzing, but Sunday at the Nuggets' practice all we got was another weather event -- the blizzard of "no comments" from Denver's players on Melo's mutterings. They have reinvented the phrase "Failure is not an Option" into "Failure is most definitely an Option".
Then there is Dallas. The Mavericks are a wreck as well. I am sure that Mark Cuban is steaming in more ways than one. When I looked at these teams before the series, it seemed as close as you could get to a dead-even matchup, and the Hornets' home-court advantage was the main reason I picked them in seven.
It hasn't worked out that way, even though Dirk Nowitzki has had a very strong series. But he isn't getting enough help, thanks mainly to Josh Howard's complete and total implosion at the offensive end. Forget this week's controversy about his confession that he smoked marijuana in the offseason -- it's his game that's gone to pot. In the series, he's mustered just 12.8 points and 6.5 boards while shooting a dismal 15-for-58 (25.9 percent). By Sunday night's Game 4, the Hornets were leaving him wide open for jumpers throughout the second half, but he clanked all of them.
The Wizards' use of Hack-a-Ben in their series against the Cavaliers hasn't been nearly as effective as San Antonio's use of the same ploy against Phoenix's Shaquille O'Neal, mainly because the Wizards haven't tried it.
If you ever would use a Hack-a-Whoever strategy, Ben Wallace would be the guy to use it against. Wallace is the worst free-throw shooter in NBA history. He made a dismal 42.6 percent this season and is at 41.8 percent for his career.
Do the math and you'll see that sending him to the line for two shots produces an expected return of 0.90 points for the Cavs -- 0.42 points on the first shot, 0.42 points on the second shot, plus 0.06 points on rebounds off a missed second shot (assuming the offensive team will rebound 13 percent, which is roughly the league average).
Meanwhile, the expected return for an average offensive team facing the Wizards is 1.068 points per possession. So just fouling Wallace reduces Cleveland's expected output against the Wizards by more than 15 percent.
2) Can the 76ers pull off the upset? Anything is possible, but really, look, I know the Pistons are still giddy about their 93-point explosion against a 40-win team last night, but they have to be gravely concerned about their offense. Even with Tayshaun Prince absolutely killing Andre Iguodala, the Pistons are tied with Philadelphia at 2-2, a shocking state of affairs that's mainly the result of their point guard's struggles.
Chauncey Billups was the best player on the league's second-best team in the regular season. In the playoffs he's 12-for-42 with 16 turnovers, and he's taking the Pistons' offense down with him. Even in the Game 4 win, he was 4-for-16 with six turnovers.
If this sounds familiar, it's because it is. Detroit's offense went into the tank in May 2006 and again in 2007, and Billups led the way both times. It's not just his shooting either; he hasn't been as good at getting the others involved. In 37 playoff games over the past three seasons, Billups has only four double-figure assist games -- whereas in the past three regular seasons he has 64.
3) Is it too early to talk about second-round match-ups, and if not, what probably series are you most looking forward to?
Yes, right now it is too early. When you're talking about playoff surprises, Atlanta's handling Boston so easily in Game 3 certainly cracks the list. Only a few people I know picked the Hawks to make it even a five-game series, much less get their win in such easy fashion against a team that won 29 more games and beat them by double figures in all three regular-season meetings. Oh my gosh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Atlanta just beat Boston by a score of 97-92!!!!!!!!!!!! This might just be the hugest upset happening right now. If they manage to beat the team that everyone was giving the title to when Garnett was acquired, then this is what will be remembered years from now. The Hawks are becoming the Warriors of last year. Watch out Celtics, you now have a series.
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Onoto
Registered:
Oct '04
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Date Posted:
4/28 8:40pm
Subject:
RE: Around the Arena (Game 1 Started, Topic 2 posted)
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The only team with a legitimate shot at a comeback from deep in the hole is Washington. They won two of three in the season series, with Cleveland's lone win coming on a one-point home-court victory; the winning free throws were made with seven seconds to go. Washington was only two games worse than the Cavs, with a 43-39 to Cleveland's 45-37, so they had comparable seasons and Washington had the edge through their three games. Cleveland showed in game three that they were capable of stinking it up, and another night with 39.7% shooting and only two players in double digits would get the Wizards right back in it. But I don't think they'll pull it off, as I can't imagine the scary good King James remaining silent three games in a row. He had only four stretches of three games or more where he didn't score at least 30 points, with the longest spanning six games and one of them taking place during an injury. The guy dominates basketball games regularly.
The 76ers are in an interesting spot. They've played well twice and got beaten solidly twice, and that makes me wonder what team is going to show up for game five. I also worry about their morale; giving up 34 in the third quarter of game four may well have lost them the series, as the surrendered a half-time lead and every bit of breathing room they had before returning to Auburn Hills. There's also history against them: the Pistons have been down in a series and come back to win five times since the '03-'04 playoffs. Starting off slowly and then heating up is not out of character. Still, the Sixers have a chance, albeit a small one. They have to win game five and avoid another road trip by clinching in game six, so the pressure's on, but they've shut down the Pistons twice (in addition to splitting the season series, including a Philly win in April). I don't think it's likely to happen, but it's not an unrealistic possibility.
If SI can make full playoff predictions in October, then we can make second round match-up predictions halfway through the first round! I'm looking forward to the New Orleans series, probably against San Antonio. Chris Paul is a ridiculously great player, and seeing the Hornets' young guns going up against the veteran champions is going to be delightful. Paul and West have played very well so far, and the rest of the team has been productive, so they have the weapons to beat the Spurs. But you never bet against the champs, either, so it should be exciting. The probable Celtics-Cavs second-round should also be fun, as Boston will face the best player on planet Earth and LeBron will get to face a trio of superstars. That series has the potential to go the distance, as Boston could win a game or two by blowout and LeBron could pull out one or two of those magical 40-point performances. Good choices all around, but those two match-ups stand out the most to me.
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The Levitt & Dallada Stories: http://boards.theforce.net/the_saga/b10476/26203785/p1 ^Short stories about two Imperial officers I'm taking a break from my fics due to the fact that my muse has disappeared. *Sigh*
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DarthIntegral
Title:
Rebel Chief:
SWC & Arena
Registered:
Jul '05
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Date Posted:
4/30 6:11am
Subject:
RE: Around the Arena (Game 1 Started, Topic 2 posted)
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Time to score some arguments again ...
This Round
Juliet: Nice quick and harsh on the teams trailing big (+2), good job summarizing the Pistons (+2), love the pot shot at the Nuggets (+1) ... and a nice way to kiss up to the host, by calling for a Cavaliers' steamroll (+2)
RX_Sith Nice to see you so faithfully follow John Hollinger, but that's a good thing (+1), except when you just copy/paste his articles (-2). Don't do it again. I'd rather hear your thoughts.
Onoto: I give you credit for being a man and picking a team with a chance (+2), and it might have been more credit if you weren't betting against King James. Of course, you cited that's the reason it's possible, but not likely (+1). Good recap of Detroit=Philly (+2), and I love you having the marbles on the final question. Good stuff there (+2)
reched: Looks like you got the mute button ... (-1)
Scoreboard
This Round
Juliet: 7
Onoto: 7
RX: -1
reched: -1
Overall
Onoto: 14
Juliet316: 11
RX_Sith: 4
rechedelphar: 2
Buy or Sell is next ...
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DarthIntegral
Title:
Rebel Chief:
SWC & Arena
Registered:
Jul '05
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Date Posted:
4/30 6:14am
Subject:
RE: Around the Arena (Game 1 Started, Topic 2 posted)
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Sidney Crosby and the Penguins won another game last night, advancing to 7-0 in the playoffs, and looking every bit like the future is now. You buy or sell Crosby making the NHL relevant and must-see tv again in America?
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Onoto
Registered:
Oct '04
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Date Posted:
4/30 2:41pm
Subject:
RE: Around the Arena (Game 1 Started, Buy or Sell #1 posted)
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I'm going to sell. Crosby is ludicrously talented - he's the youngest ever scoring champion, and Gretzky was only five months younger when he won his first Hart Trophy - but for the casual sports fan, he means nothing. You have to go by the casual standards, as the die-hards will watch no matter the conditions. A sport is truly popular if fans who would normally be watching American Idol instead choose to watch the game. Unfortunately, many people aren't even capable of watching NHL games at all, as the league is carried on the small-time network Versus.
Without a prominent stage, I don't see how Crosby can capture the public's imagination on a scale grand enough to make hockey comparable to football or any of the other major sports. LeBron James is a good comparable in terms of talent, but the greater popularity and exposure of basketball easily makes the King a much bigger star. The most gifted, most talented hockey players in the world can be buried by the more popular "American" sports. Hockey's image as the game Canadians play has undoubtedly had a major impact on its standing; baseball recovered from its strike reasonably well, as its national stature put in a position so that the home run race of '98 reached the maximum number of fans. Hockey isn't in the same boat. It doesn't have the ability to reach the people who define the cultural norms, the casual fan.
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The Levitt & Dallada Stories: http://boards.theforce.net/the_saga/b10476/26203785/p1 ^Short stories about two Imperial officers I'm taking a break from my fics due to the fact that my muse has disappeared. *Sigh*
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RX_Sith
Title: Monopoly host
Registered:
Mar '06
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Date Posted:
4/30 2:58pm
Subject:
RE: Around the Arena (Game 1 Started, Buy or Sell #1 posted)
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I completely agree with Onoto on this as being a huge SELL. The NHL Owners basically threw in the towel when they had their lockout. Now, mainly only the northern US cities and of course Canada care about hockey. Anywhere else, football, basketball, and baseball reign supreme. Who really cares if NBC or ABC end up carrying it besides the fans in Philly, Detroit, Boston, Pittsburgh, and the other northern US hockey towns.
I haven't seen an NHL game since the lockout and I grew up in an NHL city (St. Louis). Sorry NHL, but I will only catch the highlights now.
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Onoto
Registered:
Oct '04
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Date Posted:
4/30 5:36pm
Subject:
RE: Around the Arena (Game 1 Started, Buy or Sell #1 posted)
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On a semi-related note, 87 is an awesome jersey number.
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The Levitt & Dallada Stories: http://boards.theforce.net/the_saga/b10476/26203785/p1 ^Short stories about two Imperial officers I'm taking a break from my fics due to the fact that my muse has disappeared. *Sigh*
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Juliet316
Registered:
Apr '05
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Date Posted:
4/30 8:25pm
Subject:
RE: Around the Arena (Game 1 Started, Buy or Sell #1 posted)
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Sell. The NHL is still recovering from the Lockout and it's going to take years more of recovery. It's cause wasn't helped when they basically put it's All - Star game on it's own Network (which very few people get) without much promotion of it, if anything at all. The Owners have been making stupid moves since the lockout and will continue to do so until somebody bashes them over the head and tells them that the fans really haven't come back yet. Though personally it's been irrelevant since Gretsky retired.
Case in point: I know who Wayne Gretsky was, but I have no idea who this Crosby person is. The only time I pay any attention at all is when something gruesome happens like the skate to the throat in Feburary. NHL is a nothing sport and with the type of ownership it has, will continue to be a nothing sport.
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rechedelphar
Registered:
Mar '04
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Date Posted:
5/1 7:32am
Subject:
RE: Around the Arena (Game 1 Started, Buy or Sell #1 posted)
- Date Edited:
5/1 7:35am (1 edits total)
Edited By:
rechedelphar
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Sell. Even though the NHL is on the right track. there is yound talent like Crosby and Ovechkin. The playoffs have been pretty good so far. The final four is 4 good hockey cities and the Staley Cup finals ought to be good. The problem is that Hockey is rarely on TV. ESPN should start braocasting the NHL again and maybe then it would get some more viewers and gain popularity. and even If you don't follow hockey, if you are a sports fan than you should know who Sidney Croasby is Juliet, he has been all over Sportsecenter when the NHL is covered.
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^Clemson Baseball / West Bromwich Albion Baggies
last game: 2-0 win over QPR
Champions of the CCC, next game at Arsenal 8/16
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Onoto
Registered:
Oct '04
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Date Posted:
5/1 2:09pm
Subject:
RE: Around the Arena (Game 1 Started, Buy or Sell #1 posted)
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The deal with Versus goes through the 2010-11 season, so ESPN won't be able to broadcast the games for several more years yet. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if they chose not to make a big bid, as hockey would have been out of the national limelight for so long that it might not be worth the investment of hundreds of millions of dollars. Versus would cling to whatever sport they could, needing something else besides bull riding and cycling, so ESPN could well choose to save their cash for other games.
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The Levitt & Dallada Stories: http://boards.theforce.net/the_saga/b10476/26203785/p1 ^Short stories about two Imperial officers I'm taking a break from my fics due to the fact that my muse has disappeared. *Sigh*
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DarthIntegral
Title:
Rebel Chief:
SWC & Arena
Registered:
Jul '05
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Date Posted:
5/1 3:25pm
Subject:
RE: Around the Arena (Game 1 Started, Buy or Sell #1 posted)
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Let's score the arguments that round ...
Onoto: Love the facts (+2), love the LeBron comparison (+2), and I love the placement of blame (+1). Good job.
RX_Sith: Love referencing the lockout as a reason (+2), and I agree ... hockey isn't hockey if it's in Tampa Bay (+2)
Juliet: Great points about TV (+2), and about Gretzky (+1). And if you don't even know Crosby, that says a lot (+2)
reched: Good info on the teams remaining (+2), and more blame on TV, where it belongs (+2)
Scoreboard
This Round
Onoto: 5
Juliet: 5
RX_Sith: 4
reched: 4
Overall
Onoto: 19
Juliet316: 16
RX_Sith: 8
rechedelphar: 6
Another round of Buy or Sell is next ...
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DarthIntegral
Title:
Rebel Chief:
SWC & Arena
Registered:
Jul '05
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Date Posted:
5/1 3:28pm
Subject:
RE: Around the Arena (Game 1 Started, Buy or Sell #1 posted)
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John Smoltz sent an interesting text message, saying he is planning on coming back as a reliever, and probably staying there the rest of the year. The Braves are floundering, and part of the reason is their inability to win close games and hold late leads. Do you Buy or Sell Smoltz as a reliever being the best thing for the Braves?
Let's go Around the Arena and find out ...
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Onoto
Registered:
Oct '04
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Date Posted:
5/1 4:12pm
Subject:
RE: Around the Arena (Game 1 Started, Buy or Sell #1 posted)
- Date Edited:
5/1 4:19pm (1 edits total)
Edited By:
Onoto
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I'm buying it. With the exception of Chuck James, every Brave to start this season has an ERA of 4.00 or better. The Braves pitching staff has the second-best Hits/Game average, the third-best Home Runs Against figure, and the fifth-best ERA in the majors, so the pitching filling up the majority of those innings, the starting rotation, isn't in tremendous need. Their bullpen is shakier, so rather than sticking the aforementioned Chuck James in the bullpen, or bringing up a guy from AAA Richmond, they'd be wise to use a guy who saved 55 games and finished third in the Cy Young voting in his very first season as a pure reliever.
Smoltz is more than just a future Hall of Famer; he's still one of the game's top pitchers. But he's turning 41 in two weeks, which alters the situation significantly. The Braves should use him in relief, which will preserve his health and solve some of their problems at the same time. The fact that he's made it clear it's what he wants helps, as they don't have to worry about him becoming disgruntled if they do decide to move him. It seems to be a good scenario for everyone involved.
(All stats, of course, are as of April 30.)
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The Levitt & Dallada Stories: http://boards.theforce.net/the_saga/b10476/26203785/p1 ^Short stories about two Imperial officers I'm taking a break from my fics due to the fact that my muse has disappeared. *Sigh*
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rechedelphar
Registered:
Mar '04
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Date Posted:
5/1 4:21pm
Subject:
RE: Around the Arena (Game 1 Started, Buy or Sell #1 posted)
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Buy. As a Brave fan i would say that Smoltz would be immensely more valuable in the Bullpen. In the starting rotation he may go 7 good innings but the team could produce few runs and his efforts would be frivolous. In the bullpen he could be used almost every night when the Braves have a 1 or 2 run lead and his value would not be put to waste as he would get the save most of the time. Let's not forget that we are not very far removed from when he and Gagne battled it out with 50 plus saves each. so he couls still be a very very valuable reliever or closer.
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^Clemson Baseball / West Bromwich Albion Baggies
last game: 2-0 win over QPR
Champions of the CCC, next game at Arsenal 8/16
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