Author Topic: Official 2004 US Elections Thread
sellars1996  772 posts
Registered: Jun '02
14557_Jar-Jar Binks
Date Posted: 7/8/04 8:54am Subject: RE: Official 2004 US Elections Thread
If JFK is posted somewhere on this board, DS1977 will be there ... if you post it, he will come.

P.S. Massachusetts would be close to perfect if it wasn't so darned liberal, cold, and the people did not talk so funny and were friendlier ... maybe we can transplant a few Texans up there and straighten them out. wink Seriously, though, I love Stockbridge and Western Massachusetts. I went there in the fall of 2000 and it was beautiful. Boston was nice, lots of history, but I did not get to see as much of it as I wanted.

 

-----signature-----
Every married father's wish ... to live as well as his wife and children.
The kindest words ever said about a lawyer: well, at least he didn't run for Congress.
Locked Topic | Active Topic Notification | Private Message | Post History
ShaneP  12620 posts
Title: Lucasfilm Projects Gremlin(Manager )
Registered: Mar '01
8208_ANH Poster
Date Posted: 7/8/04 9:41am Subject: RE: Official 2004 US Elections Thread - Date Edited: 7/8/04 9:46am (1 edits total) Edited By: ShaneP
Vaderize
There is no "mainstream" America-there is the Left and the Right. Not all that much exists outside of the polarization, unfortunately.

Oh good god.

There is a vast apathetic, turned off by partisan politics, non-voting, populist mainstream America.

rolling_eyes

 

-----signature-----
Keep Your Words Sweet. You May Have To Eat Them.
Locked Topic | Active Topic Notification | Private Message | Post History
Crix-Madine  4012 posts
Registered: Aug '00
6321_Crix Madine
Date Posted: 7/8/04 10:35am Subject: RE: Official 2004 US Elections Thread - Date Edited: 7/8/04 10:35am (1 edits total) Edited By: Crix-Madine
sellers,

Keep your silly Texans down there, we don't want them anyway. We're right in everything and don't need a buncha hicks telling us how to do things tongue

In all seriousness, Boston is a wonderful place and I'm glad you enjoyed visiting Massachusetts. More people should make the effort to visit here, it's the birthplace of the Revolution and the begining of the United States.

now lets go get wicked retahded in hahvahd yahd and beat up some smaht kids!

 

-----signature-----
The will is everything. If you make yourself more than just a man,
if you devote yourself to an ideal, you become something else entirely.
Are you ready to begin?
Locked Topic | Active Topic Notification | Private Message | Post History
Jades Fire  2368 posts
Registered: Nov '98
Date Posted: 7/8/04 11:17am Subject: RE: Official 2004 US Elections Thread
I am thrilled that Kerry picked Edwards. Since last fall when the Democratic contenders were set, I started thinking that a John/John ticket would have the best chance of beating Bush. It would be a ticket with an experienced hand at the helm with the face of the new Democratic party as the VP.

So far, all the criticisms I've seen of Edwards as VP are easily countered.

His trial lawyer career won't be an issue. If pressed, he'll cite some of the cases that he won. Republicans will be hard-pressed to deny that Edwards helped these people get some justice. If they do, they'll only come off as cold-hearted. I heard David Brooks (conservative columnist) say on NPR on Tuesday he thought that the trial lawyer background would be a drawback, until he heard how well Edwards addressed it on the campaign trail in the primaries. This is an "issue" only to the GOP base.

Frankly, the Chambers of Commerce have always tended to back Republicans anyway. Their support of K/E was never in the cards. Plus, as I've heard Teresa Heinz Kerry say, John Kerry has learned over the years how important keeping business industry happy is. And besides, if you believe the old maxim that only Nixon can go to China, then only a trail lawyer can enact tort reform. Meaningful tort reform that doesn't screw the people and treat the insurance and business interests with kid gloves. We need tort reform, we just don't need the deeply unfair GOP prescription (pun intended).

Also, Edwards as second choice won't play. It's already dying out. It will only make the GOP seem deeply partisan. Kerry can come out and say he asked his good friend if he'd consider being VP on a unity ticket to heal the nation's partisan divide. Asking someone if they'd consider being VP isn't the same as asking someone to be the VP. Both Kerry and McCain have said no such formal VP offer was made.

And finally, as for his lack of experience, Edwards has more foreign policy experience that Bush had when elected. But you say Sept 11 changed things, to which the Kerry/Edwards campaign will counter with how the experienced man is the presidential candidate -- someone who has fought for his country in Vietnam, lead troops into battle and with a very strong foreign policy background -- not the vice presidential candidate. Edwards is a smart man. People recognize this. And they also recognize that there will be other experienced people in the Cabinet should something happen to Kerry, if elected.

It's interesting to see how quickly people have forgotten when George W was the candidate 4 years ago. Back then, some people were a bit wary of a man whose political experience was only 5 years as governor, no foreign policy experience, and was so out of touch with the world that he couldn't name the president of Pakistan. Then, he brought Dick Cheney on board as VP, and probably just as importantly, said Colin Powell, the most respected Republican at the time, would serve in his Cabinet. People took a fresh look at Bush and many decided that those two additions gave them enough comfort to vote for him. Even though W lacked foreign policy experience, he hadadvisors who would help. I'd rather the top of the ticket have the experience than the VP.

Why should Edwards joining Kerry be any different? They run as a team, not as individuals. Edwards brings an energy to the ticket that Kerry wouldn't have alone. You could hear it yesterday. Don't underestimate the power of a VP to the ticket. It made a difference to W in 2000. It made a difference to Clinton in 1992.

People liked Edwards. He was essentially the second choice in the primaries. They think he's got what it takes to be President, perhaps not right away. All this talk of "buyer's remorse" is just that, talk... and spin. It's like the GOP press-release that Kerry should see about a 15 point jump in the polls after the VP annoucement and convention. Spin. The GOP knows most people have made up their minds. It's not like days of old when there was a huge undecided factor. Where are these 15 points going to come from? Switchers? Not likely. Expect the GOP to make as much of this as they can when Kerry doesn't get that 15 point jump, and say that indicates his, and Edwards, weaknesses as a candidate. The Bush team has been very good at setting expectations low and then easily meeting or exceeding these low expectations.


 

-----signature-----
"Vanity working on a weak head, produces every sort of mischief." -- Jane Austen
Locked Topic | Active Topic Notification | Private Message | Post History
Gonk  10393 posts
Registered: Jul '98
6234_GNK droid
Date Posted: 7/8/04 11:25am Subject: RE: Official 2004 US Elections Thread
Also, Edwards as second choice won't play. It's already dying out. It will only make the GOP seem deeply partisan. Kerry can come out and say he asked his good friend if he'd consider being VP on a unity ticket to heal the nation's partisan divide. Asking someone if they'd consider being VP isn't the same as asking someone to be the VP. Both Kerry and McCain have said no such formal VP offer was made.

I know. It seems like such a DUMB argument to make:

"See, first McCain the Republican and now Edwards the Democrat. He's such a flip-flopper!"

Uh. Yeah. Bush flip-flops more in a given week than Kerry has all year.

 

-----signature-----
What shall we do to fill the empty spaces
Where waves of hunger gnaw?
Shall we set out upon this sea of faces
In search of more and more and more?
Locked Topic | Active Topic Notification | Private Message | Post History
JediSmuggler  7593 posts
Registered: Jun '99
6537_Green Lightsaber
Date Posted: 7/8/04 11:26am Subject: RE: Official 2004 US Elections Thread
Jades Fire

You are somewhat correct about the Chamberof Commerce issue. But only somewhat. The Chamber of Commerce might not be for Democrats, but they can be persuaded to stay on the sidelines.

Clinton in 1992 and 1996, and Gore in 2000 were able to do that. However, if they are actively working against a Democrat, the climb has become much steeper. Pretty much, the selection of Edwards will blunt the advantage that the AFL-CIO would otherwise have given, say, a Kerry-Gephardt ticket.

 

-----signature-----
The military-industrial complex has kept America strong and safe.
Locked Topic | Active Topic Notification | Private Message | Post History
KnightWriter  34473 posts
Title: Administrator Emeritus
Registered: Nov '01
5972_No Icon
Date Posted: 7/8/04 1:51pm Subject: RE: Official 2004 US Elections Thread - Date Edited: 7/8/04 2:33pm (1 edits total) Edited By: KnightWriter
Interesting commentary from MSNBC:

Today, President Bush took a shot at John Edwards, suggesting the U.S. senator was ill-prepared to be vice president of the United States.

The attack was a cheap shot: John Edwards has served the same amount of time in the Senate as George W. Bush served as governor of Texas when he was elected president. The Texas legislature only meets every other year and the governorship of the Lone Star State has long been considered one of the weakest positions of its kind in America. Add to it that Edwards has sat on the intelligence committee through the days before and after September 11th. You could argue that Edwards has more experience in key areas than George W. Bush did when he ran in 2000.

Other vice presidents, like Harry Truman, were dismissed as political hacks and lightweights, too, because of their relative lack of experience. But when the Senator from Missouri replaced one of the greatest presidents of the 20th century, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Truman exceeded all expectations and ended up being one of our country's strongest leaders.

The White House will score no political points attacking John Edwards. This campaign is a referendum on their performance and they have a great story to tell. It’s the strongest economic recovery in 20 years, there has been no follow up to the 9/11 attacks on America and the war in Iraq will reshape the Middle East every bit as much as Ronald Reagan’s war with the Soviets liberated Eastern Europe.

Presidents need to avoid pettiness — especially when leading America through its most important war since a former haberdasher from Independence, Missouri led America through the final days of World War II.

 

-----signature-----
Opposing Scrooge Economics since 2009
Locked Topic | Active Topic Notification | Private Message | Post History
Darth Mischievous  14892 posts
Registered: Oct '99
40336_Luke Skywalker
Date Posted: 7/8/04 2:20pm Subject: RE: Official 2004 US Elections Thread - Date Edited: 7/8/04 3:30pm (2 edits total) Edited By: Darth Mischievous
Kerry didn't see a 15 point bounce in the polls (which is normal), he only saw an 8 point bounce.

Not a good sign for him.

I saw that commentary on Joe Scarborough's show, it was rather good.

---

The news is reporting that Al Qaeda planning a major attack right before the US Elections.

That would be a major mistake, as I'm quite sure we wouldn't react like Spain did.

 

-----signature-----
"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give it to those who are not."
--Thomas Jefferson
Locked Topic | Active Topic Notification | Private Message | Post History
Obi-Wan McCartney  8597 posts
Registered: Aug '99
13616_Obi-Wan Kenobi
Date Posted: 7/8/04 3:41pm Subject: RE: Official 2004 US Elections Thread
Didn't we all just say that the GOP would inflate expectations and claim a 15 point bounce (the dems said up to 10) and then claim victory if it were not met.

What is normal?

 

-----signature-----
God Bless J-Rod's Wife!
Obi-Wan McCartney: Model Forum Member since 1999!
America's Beatles are far better than England's precious Rolling Stones
Locked Topic | Active Topic Notification | Private Message | Post History
Darth Mischievous  14892 posts
Registered: Oct '99
40336_Luke Skywalker
Date Posted: 7/8/04 3:43pm Subject: RE: Official 2004 US Elections Thread - Date Edited: 7/8/04 3:44pm (1 edits total) Edited By: Darth Mischievous
Normal is about 15 points.

 

-----signature-----
"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give it to those who are not."
--Thomas Jefferson
Locked Topic | Active Topic Notification | Private Message | Post History
KnightWriter  34473 posts
Title: Administrator Emeritus
Registered: Nov '01
5972_No Icon
Date Posted: 7/8/04 3:44pm Subject: RE: Official 2004 US Elections Thread
Could you provide some statistics to back that up, DM?

 

-----signature-----
Opposing Scrooge Economics since 2009
Locked Topic | Active Topic Notification | Private Message | Post History
Darth Mischievous  14892 posts
Registered: Oct '99
40336_Luke Skywalker
Date Posted: 7/8/04 3:49pm Subject: RE: Official 2004 US Elections Thread - Date Edited: 7/8/04 3:50pm (1 edits total) Edited By: Darth Mischievous
I saw it on both cable news stations MSNBC and Fox News and on CBS 'This Morning'.

 

-----signature-----
"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give it to those who are not."
--Thomas Jefferson
Locked Topic | Active Topic Notification | Private Message | Post History
Dark_side_fatty  664 posts
Registered: Oct '02
6031_Battle Droid
Date Posted: 7/8/04 3:50pm Subject: RE: Official 2004 US Elections Thread
Quote: Gonk: "Uh. Yeah. Bush flip-flops more in a given week than Kerry has all year."

Flip-floper or Wishey-Washey?


Ok, non South Carolinians don't get that....

 

Locked Topic | Active Topic Notification | Private Message | Post History
KnightWriter  34473 posts
Title: Administrator Emeritus
Registered: Nov '01
5972_No Icon
Date Posted: 7/8/04 3:56pm Subject: RE: Official 2004 US Elections Thread
I was thinking more along the lines of historical examples of candidates receiving an actual 15 point boost in the polls. I don't remember Dole receiving that when he picked Kemp, or Gore/Bush receiving that with their respective picks.

 

-----signature-----
Opposing Scrooge Economics since 2009
Locked Topic | Active Topic Notification | Private Message | Post History
Darth Mischievous  14892 posts
Registered: Oct '99
40336_Luke Skywalker
Date Posted: 7/8/04 3:58pm Subject: RE: Official 2004 US Elections Thread - Date Edited: 7/8/04 3:58pm (1 edits total) Edited By: Darth Mischievous
Poll released just now by the AP, FYI:

AP Poll: Bush Gains Slight Lead Over Kerry
By RON FOURNIER, AP Political Writer

WASHINGTON - President Bush has opened a slight lead over John Kerry while regaining the confidence of some voters on the economy and other domestic issues, according to an Associated Press poll with a silver lining for Democrats.

The addition of Sen. John Edwards to Kerry's ticket appears to have helped the Democrat in the South and among low-income voters — a result the Massachusetts senator had hoped for when he selected the North Carolina populist over more seasoned politicians.


"I'm more impressed with Kerry now that he chose Edwards," said Republican voter Robin Smith, 45, a teacher from Summerville, S.C. "I look at Kerry and I don't trust him, but he's got Edwards, who's more middle-of-the-road, a strong speaker, more able to reach the common man."


The AP-Ipsos poll found Bush slightly leading Kerry 49 percent to 45 percent with independent candidate Ralph Nader at 3 percent. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. A month ago, the Bush-Kerry matchup was tied and Nader had 6 percent.


The three-day survey began Monday, the day before Kerry tapped Edwards as his running mate, and asked registered voters about the newly minted ticket on Tuesday and Wednesday. Half supported the Republican tandem of Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney while 46 percent backed the Kerry-Edwards ticket, just within that question's margin of error of 4.5 percentage points.


Voters said they were feeling better about the economy and no worse about Iraq (news - web sites), a sign that Bush may be regaining his political footing just as Democrats make a high-profile push toward their nominating convention in late July.


"I want Bush in there, because the other guy is like sending a boy to do a man's job," said Glenn Foldessy, 45, of Streetsboro, Ohio, outside Cleveland. Foldessy, who usually votes Republican, said Edwards made the Democratic ticket stronger, but not strong enough.


"We have somebody now who's established and has things on track and if we destabilize this government during the war on terror, that's playing right into the hands of the terrorists," he said.


Troubling signs for the incumbent remain, however, from the number of voters who believe the country is on the wrong track (56 percent) to his anemic, but improving, job approval numbers. Bush's overall approval rating hit 50 percent for the first time since January, according to the poll conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs.


A month ago, the poll showed a hypothetical Kerry-Edwards ticket at 47 percent and Bush-Cheney at 44 percent, essentially a tie.


Since June, Kerry has increased his percentage of strong supporters — from 55 percent to 64 percent — a sign that he has rallied his base. He also strengthened his support in the South from 39 percent to 45 percent and among voters with incomes from $25,000 to $50,000 — 41 percent to 50 percent, the AP-Ipsos poll found.


It was unknown what, if any, credit should go to Edwards. The self-made millionaire and former trial lawyer has talked of "two Americas," one for the privileged and another for everybody else.


Republican voter Hal Pruett, a human resources director in McMinnville, Tenn., said Edwards will help the Democratic ticket in the GOP-leaning South. "Because he's from the South, people will give them a close look," said Pruett, 56.


Of the 804 registered voters surveyed, just 49 percent said they approve of Bush's handling of the economy, but that's up a few percentage points since May.


Mary Ann Hatton, 44, a Democrat who works in a Lexington, Ky., business office, said she's finding less reason to blame Bush for the economy. "I would fault him more on the war" in Iraq, she said.


Less than half, 46 percent, approve of his handling of domestic issues such as health care, education and the environment — a slight improvement over last month.


Bush gained ground among suburban women, a key constituency that increased its backing for Bush from 41 percent in June to 52 percent.


His ratings on handling foreign policy and the war in Iraq, while low, remained steady or slightly improved. The poll was taken shortly after Iraqis gained limited control of their new government.

Bush has been buoyed by a stream of economic data pointing to an economic recovery, including a plunge in unemployment insurance applications reported Thursday by the Labor Department (news - web sites).

"The conditions for a Bush victory are all there — a strong economy, an improving position in the global war on terror and a growing sense that there are sharp and clear differences in values between the two campaigns," said top Bush adviser Karl Rove.

The economy remains a potent issue for Democrats, said Mark Mellman, a pollster for Kerry.

"We're still seeing people squeezed between prices that are rising and incomes that aren't," he said.



I suspect the Dems will get the normal post-convention bounce, though.

 

-----signature-----
"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give it to those who are not."
--Thomas Jefferson
Locked Topic | Active Topic Notification | Private Message | Post History