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Author	Topic: Official 2004 US Elections Thread
ShaneP Title: Lucasfilm Projects Gremlin(Manager ) Registered: Mar '01	Date Posted: 7/6/04 3:07pm Subject: RE: It's Unofficially Official: Kerry/Edwards v. Bush/Cheney
	Madriver, you can expect that quote amongst others in an ad somewhere before November I'm sure. -----signature----- Keep Your Words Sweet. You May Have To Eat Them.
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dizfactor Registered: Aug '02	Date Posted: 7/6/04 3:12pm Subject: RE: It's Unofficially Official: Kerry/Edwards v. Bush/Cheney - Date Edited: 7/6/04 3:14pm (1 edits total) Edited By: dizfactor
	So Hispanics are all liberals who bloc vote Democrat? no. notice that i said that there are always people who buck the trend of their particular group, whatever that group is, so no group is "all" this or "all" that. however, different ethnic groups predominantly fall one way or another in terms of politics. with Latino voters, it's a bit more complicated because it varies by specific ethnic group. while most Latino voters are more-or-less socially conservative, they tend to vary on economic issues depending on ethnic group and location and those differences split party loyalties. for example, Cuban-Americans in Florida tend to be Republicans, while Puerto Ricans in New York tend to be Democrats. you can get more and more accurate the more detailed your demographic data is. if you tell me someone's a 22-year old half-African-American, half-Jewish lesbian working in a coffee shop in Northampton, Massachusetts, i can tell you with pretty reasonable certainty that she'll probably vote for Kerry if she votes. there's some chance that she'll vote for Nader, and virtually no chance she'll vote for Bush. conversely, if someone's a white 38-year old male, working as a white-collar manager at a defense plant in Georgia, living in the suburbs with his wife and three children and attending an evangelical Christian church every Sunday, he's all but certain to be voting for Bush if he votes. i would honestly fall off my chair if he voted for Kerry. i could probably also do a pretty good job of estimating how they felt about a number of social and political issues, just based on the information outlined above, and i'm not even a professional. if you were in marketing or advertising, you could probably figure out what kind of beer they drink, what kind of music they listen to, where they go on vacation, what they look for in a car, etc. of course some people break the mold; some people always do. however, the fact is that most people believe in the same things and like the same things and worry about the same things and respond to the same things that most other people who are like them demographically believe in most of the time. not all, certainly, but if you take a decent-sized group of people and you gather some basic demographic information about them, the behavior of the group overall is reasonably predictable. as a result of this, campaigns build strategies around this kind of demographic information, and a lot of people get paid a lot of money to work out who lives where and what kind of people they are, and to go from there into making a solid statistical model of how they're going to vote and how they can be encouraged to vote their way. and, over time, it works pretty darn well as a predictive model of behavior. Will this quote resurface and hurt Kerry? no. it's not going to offend anyone except pro-lifers, and they're all voting for Bush anyway. all pro-choicers care about is how you're going to vote and whether or not you're going to protect abortion rights. generally, we respect the privacy of others not to pass judgement on someone's personal feelings on abortion as long as they respect our right to act on ours. -----signature----- "Play is going to be for the 21st century what steam was to the 19th century." Julian Dibbell "You gotta love an elite killing force that you can fool by putting on a hat." Gryph
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Obi-Wan McCartney Registered: Aug '99	Date Posted: 7/6/04 3:24pm Subject: RE: It's Unofficially Official: Kerry/Edwards v. Bush/Cheney
	Is it stupid to worry about the Union vote? Is it stupid to worry about the Women's vote? Is it stupid to worry about the "nascar dad" vote? Is it stupid to worry about the 18-25 vote? Is it stupid to try and court the over 65 vote? Is it stupid to try and court the small business vote? Is it stupid to try and courtt the Star Wars vote? Is it stupid to try and court the religous right vote? Need I go on, or has Knightwriters point been beaten to death? -----signature----- God Bless J-Rod's Wife! Obi-Wan McCartney: Model Forum Member since 1999! America's Beatles are far better than England's precious Rolling Stones
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Darth Mischievous Registered: Oct '99	Date Posted: 7/6/04 3:30pm Subject: RE: It's Unofficially Official: Kerry/Edwards v. Bush/Cheney - Date Edited: 7/6/04 3:46pm (4 edits total) Edited By: Kimball_Kinnison
	That's really not needed. ---- Bush has actually a larger percentage of support from Hispanic voters this year than he did in 2000 (it's at 40% right now). It's going to come down to one State, I think: Ohio. -----signature----- "The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give it to those who are not." --Thomas Jefferson
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KnightWriter Title: Administrator Emeritus Registered: Nov '01	Date Posted: 7/6/04 3:34pm Subject: RE: It's Unofficially Official: Kerry/Edwards v. Bush/Cheney
	Bush has actually a larger percentage of support from Hispanic voters this year than he did in 2000 (it's a 40% right now). What (and whose) statistics are you using? -----signature----- Opposing Scrooge Economics since 2009
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Darth Mischievous Registered: Oct '99	Date Posted: 7/6/04 3:35pm Subject: RE: It's Unofficially Official: Kerry/Edwards v. Bush/Cheney
	I saw it on the news somewhere, MSNBC I think. -----signature----- "The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give it to those who are not." --Thomas Jefferson
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ShaneP Title: Lucasfilm Projects Gremlin(Manager ) Registered: Mar '01	Date Posted: 7/6/04 3:52pm Subject: RE: It's Unofficially Official: Kerry/Edwards v. Bush/Cheney - Date Edited: 7/6/04 3:55pm (1 edits total) Edited By: ShaneP
	diz however, different ethnic groups predominantly fall one way or another in terms of politics. That is the thinking that has helped destroy our republic. Who the hell cares what ethnic group votes this or that? Is this the U.S. or Bosnia? Organizing people into ethnic groups is right out of some Nietschzcian fable. EDIT It's amazing how so-called "progressives" claim they're for progress yet have done more to stratify people into ethnic groups. That is incredibly regressive. -----signature----- Keep Your Words Sweet. You May Have To Eat Them.
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Darth Mischievous Registered: Oct '99	Date Posted: 7/6/04 3:55pm Subject: RE: It's Unofficially Official: Kerry/Edwards v. Bush/Cheney - Date Edited: 7/6/04 3:55pm (1 edits total) Edited By: Darth Mischievous
	I agree, ShaneP. I also cannot understand the lack of thought and intelligent discrimination that comes out of ethnic groups that vote bloc one way or the other. -----signature----- "The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give it to those who are not." --Thomas Jefferson
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ShaneP Title: Lucasfilm Projects Gremlin(Manager ) Registered: Mar '01	Date Posted: 7/6/04 3:58pm Subject: RE: It's Unofficially Official: Kerry/Edwards v. Bush/Cheney
	Well, alot of it is pushed by the media as well. They need a quick quote or blurb to put on their headline. I could care less what bloc voted this way or that. All that leads to is candidates of both parties whoring themselves out. -----signature----- Keep Your Words Sweet. You May Have To Eat Them.
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Crix-Madine Registered: Aug '00	Date Posted: 7/6/04 3:59pm Subject: RE: It's Unofficially Official: Kerry/Edwards v. Bush/Cheney - Date Edited: 7/6/04 4:00pm (1 edits total) Edited By: Crix-Madine
	That is the thinking that has helped destroy our republic. Who the hell cares what ethnic group votes this or that? Is this the U.S. or Bosnia? Organizing people into ethnic groups is right out of some Nietschzcian fable. Ummm, I hate to break the news to you pal...but people in the United States have been organized and referred to as ethnic groups since the founding of this country. Study your history! -----signature----- The will is everything. If you make yourself more than just a man, if you devote yourself to an ideal, you become something else entirely. Are you ready to begin?
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ShaneP Title: Lucasfilm Projects Gremlin(Manager ) Registered: Mar '01	Date Posted: 7/6/04 4:13pm Subject: RE: It's Unofficially Official: Kerry/Edwards v. Bush/Cheney - Date Edited: 7/6/04 4:16pm (2 edits total) Edited By: ShaneP
	people in the United States have been organized and referred to as ethnic groups since the founding of this country. Yeah, duh! DUH! Is that progressive............pal? Don't even know the meaning. -----signature----- Keep Your Words Sweet. You May Have To Eat Them.
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Obi-Wan McCartney Registered: Aug '99	Date Posted: 7/6/04 4:22pm Subject: RE: It's Unofficially Official: Kerry/Edwards v. Bush/Cheney
	Uh, I think you guys are missing the point. We are talking about politics, not governing. What I mean is, we are discussing the election stratagies of both tickets; only a fool would choose to ignore information that would help attract large waves of voters. Whether or not this is right or moral is not something I commented on, but it is a fact of life: voters who have certain things in common tend to vote in certain blocs, if you want to win an election you have to learn how to attract as many voters as you can. -----signature----- God Bless J-Rod's Wife! Obi-Wan McCartney: Model Forum Member since 1999! America's Beatles are far better than England's precious Rolling Stones
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Crix-Madine Registered: Aug '00	Date Posted: 7/6/04 4:24pm Subject: RE: It's Unofficially Official: Kerry/Edwards v. Bush/Cheney
	That's my point, it's a strategy that has been around for hundreds of years and will continue to exist as long as it proves opportunity for political candidates. -----signature----- The will is everything. If you make yourself more than just a man, if you devote yourself to an ideal, you become something else entirely. Are you ready to begin?
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ShaneP Title: Lucasfilm Projects Gremlin(Manager ) Registered: Mar '01	Date Posted: 7/6/04 4:34pm Subject: RE: It's Unofficially Official: Kerry/Edwards v. Bush/Cheney
	Does Will Smith have more in common with locals in So. Central than a white, poor person? It's about class, not enthnicity or race. That's where the true inequality is. But, the two parties will never miss out on keeping people divided into primitive groupings. -----signature----- Keep Your Words Sweet. You May Have To Eat Them.
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Vaderbait Registered: Sep '01	Date Posted: 7/6/04 5:05pm Subject: RE: It's Unofficially Official: Kerry/Edwards v. Bush/Cheney
	Bush didn't win last time, he stole it. Face it, you know it's true. He didn't have the popular vote, and he won't get it this time either. Actually, CNN, NY Times, and I think the Washington post counted the votes every which way, and each time Bush won Florida fair and square. You apparently don't see how Gore could've cheated, and why people were so afraid of letting him re-write election laws in the middle of a Presidential Election. So, Bush won fair and square, and no stealing was made. Now, I jus thad to make that response, now that both sides have been represented, we can move on to more relevant things: I don't think Edwards helps Kerry out much. Bush is ahead in Pennsylvania, and I'd have to look this up, but I'm pretty sure in other states that Gore won in 2000 Bush is ahead. I think we're looking at Bush win in the low 50-60% range. It won't be as close as people expect, Bush has held together an economy during two wars and recession, and now it's growing at it's fastest rate in 20 years. That's a big thing he can boast for. Iraq is leveling out, but this is hard to predict. So long as it doesn't get much worse, this doesn't hurt Bush, either. Before elections, the incumbent is usually down or facing lots of enemies and public perception turns against them, simply because they're deflecting lots of attacks, founded and unfounded, from their opponent. It's way too early to predict this, but if things stay moderately the same or improve, Bush is definately favored.
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