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Topic:
2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
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DarthKarde
Registered:
Jun '02
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Date Posted:
4/11 12:54pm
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
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If the Southampton Tories can repeat last years performance, which the really should, they will take Sholing (Lab) and Swathling (Lib Dem). Doing so again in 2010 would see them gain another seat in each of those wards and Bassett and Millbrook from the Lib Dems. That would give them 24 of of 54 seats. To achieve a majority however they have to find another couple of wards where they can win. On paper Portswood looks the best bet with Bargate, Bitterne, and Redbridge all decent prospects. It is far from impossible for the Tories to have a majority after the 2010 elections. I note that the Tories have even started to recover in Coxford. A few years back it was their worst ward in the city, now it is in danger of becoming a three way marginal.
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Darth_Asabrush
Registered:
May '00
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Date Posted:
4/12 10:40am
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
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Coxford is interesting. Its very working class. If the Tories can make gains in places like that then we (the electorate) may get a better council. Really, the Lib-Lab coallition here is rubbish! What I actually like about the Tories in Southampton is that are encouraging younger candidates to stand rather than the same old "veterans" of the last god knows how many campaigns (i.e. Labour).
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DarthKarde
Registered:
Jun '02
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Date Posted:
4/12 10:55am
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
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Darth_Asabrush posted:
Coxford is interesting. Its very working class. If the Tories can make gains in places like that then we (the electorate) may get a better council. Really, the Lib-Lab coallition here is rubbish! What I actually like about the Tories in Southampton is that are encouraging younger candidates to stand rather than the same old "veterans" of the last god knows how many campaigns (i.e. Labour).
The Tories would need a lot of luck to win Coxford because without a massive swing they could only win it if the Labour and Lib Dem vote remains about even. If either other main party falls away the Tories have no chance. However as I said yesterday a Tory majority in 2010 is a very real chance but they need to gain 3 or 4 seats this year to set it up. Doing that means winning 1 or 2 seats where they don't have any councillors at present.
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G-FETT
Registered:
Aug '01
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Date Posted:
4/13 11:20am
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
- Date Edited:
4/13 11:38am (1 edits total)
Edited By:
G-FETT
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Karde, do you see the prospect of a Labour collapse at this years local elections? I notice we're getting consistent polls now, where the Conservatives have leads of like 15-16%.
Like today we have a Sunday Times poll with headline figures of;
Con: 44%
Lab: 28%
Lib: 17%
Surely thats enough to allow a serious collapse of Labour's vote?
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The Saga returns; August 15th 2008.
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DarthKarde
Registered:
Jun '02
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Date Posted:
4/13 3:14pm
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
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G-FETT posted:
Karde, do you see the prospect of a Labour collapse at this years local elections? I notice we're getting consistent polls now, where the Conservatives have leads of like 15-16%.
Like today we have a Sunday Times poll with headline figures of;
Con: 44%
Lab: 28%
Lib: 17%
Surely thats enough to allow a serious collapse of Labour's vote?
Both YouGov and ICM are now consistently giving the Tories big leads of 10% and more. Populus, Communicate Research and Mori show a more modest lead of 5-8%. Either way we are set to see a very poor Labour result in the local elections. I was speaking to a Labour activist here in Birmingham on Friday and he was very gloomy. He said the core Labour vote is extremely disillusioned and that he fears a couple of shock results in what should be safe Labour wards.
The only saving grace for Labour is that they have very few councils where they are likely to lose control as only their heartlands are left. This means the headline figures will not be too bad.
The national trend could also play a big part in seeing off Ken Livingstone. While you would be mad to write such a fantastic campaigner off he looks in trouble.
Incidentally I see that the BNP are contesting a ward in Daventry for what I assume to be the first time.
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G-FETT
Registered:
Aug '01
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Date Posted:
4/14 4:58am
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
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Thanks Karde.  So, the percentage swings and nataional share will be much more telling this years, than the actual results? The rise of the BNP is concerning. They are set to do well in London, aren't they?
What do you think to rumours in the papers that Labour are planning to get rid of Brown? I remember we heard this about Blair for years and years and it never came to anything. I assume the same will happen here. However, if Brown is certain of defeat at the general election, might he now quit to save himself the humiliation? Its not really in a politicians nature to quite, but then again, Brown does have form for bottling out....
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I felt a great disturbance in the force. As if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror. Then were suddenly silenced.
The Saga returns; August 15th 2008.
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G-FETT
Registered:
Aug '01
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Date Posted:
4/17 4:24pm
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
- Date Edited:
4/17 4:25pm (1 edits total)
Edited By:
G-FETT
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Its just been announced that veteran Labour MP Gwyneth Dunwoody has died.
She was an exceptional Parliamentarian and will be a sad loss to Labour and Parliament as a whole. 
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The Saga returns; August 15th 2008.
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DarthKarde
Registered:
Jun '02
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Date Posted:
4/17 4:39pm
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
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G-FETT posted:
Its just been announced that veteran Labour MP Gwyneth Dunwoody has died.
She was an exceptional Parliamentarian and will be a sad loss to Labour and Parliament as a whole.
This is very sad news to anyone who gives a damn about democracy. As with the death of Eric Forth this is massive loss to parliament and public life.
RIP
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G-FETT
Registered:
Aug '01
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Date Posted:
4/17 4:42pm
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
- Date Edited:
4/17 4:43pm (1 edits total)
Edited By:
G-FETT
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I feel really sad about this.  Another of the cold school gone. All the old characters are going and they are being replaced by faceless PR spivs and nonentity's. With the passing of each of these Parliamenterians, so Parliament itself is weakened one by one.
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I felt a great disturbance in the force. As if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror. Then were suddenly silenced.
The Saga returns; August 15th 2008.
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Thunderstruck
Registered:
Apr '08
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Date Posted:
4/18 5:07am
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
- Date Edited:
4/18 5:10am (1 edits total)
Edited By:
Thunderstruck
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G-FETT posted:
I feel really sad about this. Another of the cold school gone. All the old characters are going and they are being replaced by faceless PR spivs and nonentity's. With the passing of each of these Parliamenterians, so Parliament itself is weakened one by one.
Well you don't even know what they're going to be like yet?
How can you judge them before you even see their methods..
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G-FETT
Registered:
Aug '01
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Date Posted:
4/21 9:17am
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
- Date Edited:
4/21 9:22am (1 edits total)
Edited By:
G-FETT
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Its a job to believe any of the major parties would put up candidates that are as free thinking and independent as Dunwoody was. Gwyneth Dunwoody was an "old school" MP and she believed Parliaments authority was sacred - More so even that loyalty to party. That belief in Parliament is unfortuantly, an increasingly rare thing in the current political class.
On other matters, a London Mayoral poll is out today in the Standard
Now, the article imply's that the contest between Ken Livingstone and Boris Johnson is neck and neck, yet these numbers look to me to show a very comfortable Boris win? Am I reading the mubers wrong?
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I felt a great disturbance in the force. As if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror. Then were suddenly silenced.
The Saga returns; August 15th 2008.
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DarthKarde
Registered:
Jun '02
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Date Posted:
4/21 9:50am
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
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G-FETT posted:
Its a job to believe any of the major parties would put up candidates that are as free thinking and independent as Dunwoody was. Gwyneth Dunwoody was an "old school" MP and she believed Parliaments authority was sacred - More so even that loyalty to party. That belief in Parliament is unfortuantly, an increasingly rare thing in the current political class.
On other matters, a London Mayoral poll is out today in the Standard
Now, the article imply's that the contest between Ken Livingstone and Boris Johnson is neck and neck, yet these numbers look to me to show a very comfortable Boris win? Am I reading the mubers wrong?
Those figures show Boris winning 53% to 47% after 2nd preference votes. It's a decent lead but I wouldn't call it "very comfortable". Sean Fear (Chairman of Hertsmere Conservative Association), who is one of the most knowledgeable people on the subject of electoral politics (especially in London) you could ever meet, has been saying for some time that Boris will win 52-48. I wouldn't bet against his prediction.
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G-FETT
Registered:
Aug '01
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Date Posted:
4/21 11:01am
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
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Well with voting taking place next week, it looks like a reasonable lead to me. How unusual to see the Conservatives winning an election! 
I wonder what kind of Mayor Boris Johnson would make though? 
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The Saga returns; August 15th 2008.
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DarthKarde
Registered:
Jun '02
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Date Posted:
4/25 2:51pm
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
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Well a poll by Mori (albeit a Union funded one) gives Ken a lead of 3% on first preferences and 4% lead on second preferences. It is going to be close.
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G-FETT
Registered:
Aug '01
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Date Posted:
4/25 3:46pm
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
- Date Edited:
4/25 3:48pm (1 edits total)
Edited By:
G-FETT
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Is Livingstone going to pull this out at the last minute?
Personally, I've always had a feeling that mori's methodology favours Labour over the Conservatives. I remember back in the 2005 general election campaign, mori were one of the pollsters that were conisistently predicting a third Labour landslide and you kept saying that the mood on the ground wasn't like that at all. Whether that makes any differance with this contest though, I'm not sure?
As far as the national picture goes, Labour really couldn't have had a worse week could they? I mean, a rebellion and U-Turn over tax. A oil strike in Scotland. A poll putting them 18% behind. I never thought I'd say this, but poor Gordon.
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The Saga returns; August 15th 2008.
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