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Topic:
2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
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DarthKarde
Registered:
Jun '02
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Date Posted:
4/26 12:50pm
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
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G-FETT posted:
Is Livingstone going to pull this out at the last minute?
Personally, I've always had a feeling that mori's methodology favours Labour over the Conservatives. I remember back in the 2005 general election campaign, mori were one of the pollsters that were conisistently predicting a third Labour landslide and you kept saying that the mood on the ground wasn't like that at all. Whether that makes any differance with this contest though, I'm not sure?
As far as the national picture goes, Labour really couldn't have had a worse week could they? I mean, a rebellion and U-Turn over tax. A oil strike in Scotland. A poll putting them 18% behind. I never thought I'd say this, but poor Gordon.
Some of the details from this Mori poll are certainly questionable as it puts turnout at 60%. That is more than the turnout in London at the last general election and compares to turnouts of 30-40% in the last two mayoral elections. This poll could ruin Mori's reputation or make them look like geniuses.
I still think that Boris will win but you would be mad to right off Ken. Any other Labour politician would be a dead and buried because of the national picture but Ken is brilliant political operator and he might just pull off a shock win.
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G-FETT
Registered:
Aug '01
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Date Posted:
4/26 1:29pm
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
- Date Edited:
4/26 1:31pm (1 edits total)
Edited By:
G-FETT
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Maybe the interesting characters of Boris Johnson and Ken Livingstone will create more voter interest? Plus, with the contest looking close, I think we can expect a much grater turnout than the 2000 and 2004 Mayoral elections?
Also, The News of the World has been polling the Marginals. The results make for dire reading for Labour;
HERE
Highlights include,
Conservatives on course for a 64 seat majority
130 Labour MP's set for defeat
4 Cabinet minister will be removed, including the Chancellor
9% swing to the Conservatives, equalling the swing Blair managed in 97
Conservatives lead on most subjects, including the NHS
Labour still retains a lead on being the best party to deal with the Credit Crunch.
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I felt a great disturbance in the force. As if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror. Then were suddenly silenced.
The Saga returns; August 15th 2008.
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DarthKarde
Registered:
Jun '02
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Date Posted:
4/26 1:53pm
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
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G-FETT posted:
Maybe the interesting characters of Boris Johnson and Ken Livingstone will create more voter interest? Plus, with the contest looking close, I think we can expect a much grater turnout than the 2000 and 2004 Mayoral elections?
Also, The News of the World has been polling the Marginals. The results make for dire reading for Labour;
HERE
Highlights include,
Conservatives on course for a 64 seat majority
130 Labour MP's set for defeat
4 Cabinet minister will be removed, including the Chancellor
9% swing to the Conservatives, equalling the swing Blair managed in 97
Conservatives lead on most subjects, including the NHS
Labour still retains a lead on being the best party to deal with the Credit Crunch.
1. I would expect an increased turnout in London but 60% would be an astonishing figure and would probably see Ken win.
2. Most polls are very bad for Labour at the moment but polling just marginal seats and extrapolating results from such a poll is notoriously unreliable. That being said I have no doubt that if a general election were to take place tomorrow the Tories would win a majority.
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G-FETT
Registered:
Aug '01
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Date Posted:
4/26 2:03pm
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
- Date Edited:
4/26 2:04pm (1 edits total)
Edited By:
G-FETT
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What do you think has gone wrong for Labour, Karde? Is it recoverable?
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I felt a great disturbance in the force. As if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror. Then were suddenly silenced.
The Saga returns; August 15th 2008.
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DarthKarde
Registered:
Jun '02
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Date Posted:
4/26 2:34pm
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
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G-FETT posted:
What do you think has gone wrong for Labour, Karde?
It's a combination of many things. Amongst them
1. They have been in power nearly 11 years.
2. After a decade of strong economic growth the outlook is gloomy. High personal debt and inflation which feels much higher than official figures suggest is making people poorer than they have been for a long time.
3. Tax rises are finally starting to bite especially given point 2.
4. Most people are starting to be sceptical as to how much the massive increase in spending on public services has achieved.
5. A Prime Minister whom does not look capable of doing the job.
6. A lightweight cabinet.
G-FETT posted:
Is it recoverable?
Maybe, but not likely.
Political momentum is very difficult to regain when it has been lost. The one saving grace for Labour is that Brown and Darling still lead on the economic competence question. While class politics is mostly dead in the UK there probably does remain a feeling that Cameron and Osbourne (neither of whom have every had to worry about money) are not the best people to be in charge of the nations finances. That is something for Labour to build on but unless the government as a whole, and Brown in particular, start to show a greater degree of all round competence there is no way back. I would advise Brown to stick to his instincts and avoid stunts, unlike Blair he rarely pulls them off and they diminish his look of a serious and principled politician which for many years has been a great asset to him.
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G-FETT
Registered:
Aug '01
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Date Posted:
4/26 2:46pm
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
- Date Edited:
4/26 2:47pm (1 edits total)
Edited By:
G-FETT
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Well you've just got to look at the tax con budget to see that Brown is unable to pull off stunts in the way that Blair used to. And then there was the nonsense of him flying to Iraq during the Tory conference. Oh and the non-dom Inheritence Tax policy steal.
To me, everything at the moment seems like John Major post 92. Theres just an air of decay about this government, I think. I don't get the sense that they are going anywhere.
The big differance is that the Tories are not in the position Labour were in from 1992, but I think they are doing well enough to run Labour close and maybe even secure a very narrow majority.
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DarthKarde
Registered:
Jun '02
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Date Posted:
4/26 2:50pm
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
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G-FETT posted:
Well you've just got to look at the tax con budget to see that Brown is unable to pull off stunts in the way that Blair used to. And then there was the nonsense of him flying to Iraq during the Tory conference. Oh and the non-dom Inheritence Tax policy steal.
To me, everything at the moment seems like John Major post 92. Theres just an air of decay about this government, I think. I don't get the sense that they are going anywhere.
The big differance is that the Tories are not in the position Labour were in from 1992, but I think they are doing well enough to run Labour close and maybe even secure a very narrow majority.
I agree on all points.
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G-FETT
Registered:
Aug '01
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Date Posted:
4/26 3:55pm
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
- Date Edited:
4/26 3:56pm (1 edits total)
Edited By:
G-FETT
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I must say, I'm really enjoying politics right now. This is the most interesting political period since the 87-92 Parliament, IMO. Finally, we actually have a contest going on, not just a one party dictatorship.
I know you think that in the end Cameron will be no differant than Blair, Karde, but at least we do have two parties competing against one another finally. For the sport of the thing at least, that makes politics interesting at last.
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The Saga returns; August 15th 2008.
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G-FETT
Registered:
Aug '01
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Date Posted:
4/28 9:00am
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
- Date Edited:
4/28 9:00am (1 edits total)
Edited By:
G-FETT
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Another Standard/YouGov poll showing Boris with a huge 11% lead on first prefrences and 10% on second.
One of these pollsters are going to come out of this race with their reputation in tatters. 
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The Saga returns; August 15th 2008.
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DarthKarde
Registered:
Jun '02
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Date Posted:
4/28 1:35pm
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
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G-FETT posted:
Another Standard/YouGov poll showing Boris with a huge 11% lead on first prefrences and 10% on second.
One of these pollsters are going to come out of this race with their reputation in tatters.
I understand that there will be one more Mori Poll before Thursday and we are yet to see ICM's final poll. This is YouGov's final effort and it is a clear win for Boris. If he doesn't win their reputation will be ruined for years to come. The only other pollster to cover this election is MRUK (they are new to political polling but seem to have a sound methodology) and they final poll gives it to Livingstone 51% to 49%. Neither Populus or Communicate Research have covered this race.
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G-FETT
Registered:
Aug '01
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Date Posted:
4/28 1:55pm
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
- Date Edited:
4/28 1:57pm (1 edits total)
Edited By:
G-FETT
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UKPOLLINGREPORT says mori are done. We're going to get one more YouGov and one more ICM, according to this site?
Oooooooo link
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DarthKarde
Registered:
Jun '02
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Date Posted:
4/29 9:08am
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
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G-FETT posted:
UKPOLLINGREPORT says mori are done. We're going to get one more YouGov and one more ICM, according to this site?
Oooooooo link
Actually it looks like ICM are also done. Their final poll gave it to Boris by 2 points but that was 4 weeks ago and can hardly be expected to be a reliable indicator of the current status. YouGov say Boris quite comfortably, Mori and MRUK say Ken by a small margin.
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G-FETT
Registered:
Aug '01
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Date Posted:
4/29 11:56am
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
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So Karde, with just one more day until polling, what do you thinks going to happen with the Mayoralty and the locals?
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I felt a great disturbance in the force. As if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror. Then were suddenly silenced.
The Saga returns; August 15th 2008.
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DarthKarde
Registered:
Jun '02
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Date Posted:
4/29 2:40pm
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
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G-FETT posted:
So Karde, with just one more day until polling, what do you thinks going to happen with the Mayoralty and the locals?
I will probably post in a bit of detail on Thursday but I believe that Boris will win by 4-7 points and that the Tories will gain between 100 and 200 seats in the locals.
On another note Nu Labour have sunk to a new low. Tomorrow they are going to move the writ for the Crewe & Nantwich by election which will be held on the 22nd May. Gwyneth Dunwoody has not even been buried yet!
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G-FETT
Registered:
Aug '01
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Date Posted:
4/29 3:22pm
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
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Why are they moving that quickly on the by election? Thats barely a three week campaign?
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The Saga returns; August 15th 2008.
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