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Topic:
2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
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DarthKarde
Registered:
Jun '02
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Date Posted:
5/1 2:47am
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
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G-FETT posted:
Why are they moving that quickly on the by election? Thats barely a three week campaign? 
The incumbent party tends to prefer a short campaign if the seat is at risk.
It is strongly rumoured that YouGov's final poll will show Boris winning by 53% to 47%. This ties in well with my prediction that Boris will win by 4-7%. Peter Kellner (founder and public face of YouGov) has apparently said “One thing is certain: by Friday night - either Ken Livingstone or I will be out of a job”.
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G-FETT
Registered:
Aug '01
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Date Posted:
5/1 3:32am
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
- Date Edited:
5/1 3:33am (1 edits total)
Edited By:
G-FETT
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DarthKarde posted:
G-FETT posted:
Why are they moving that quickly on the by election? Thats barely a three week campaign?
The incumbent party tends to prefer a short campaign if the seat is at risk.
It is strongly rumoured that YouGov's final poll will show Boris winning by 53% to 47%. This ties in well with my prediction that Boris will win by 4-7%. Peter Kellner (founder and public face of YouGov) has apparently said “One thing is certain: by Friday night - either Ken Livingstone or I will be out of a job”.
LOL! I read on one website yesterday that Ken Livingstone has threatened YouGov with legal action yeserday, claiming their polls are biased! Isn't Peter Kellner a LABOUR supporter in his spare time, though?
Are the Tories in with a shout at Crewe and Nantwich? I noticed on the NotW marginals poll at the weekend, that on the swing that poll suggested, the Tories could expect to pick up Crew, but it was right at the end of the seats list, meaning that even on a 9% swing theres no guarantee they could get this one? But on the other hand the government are very unpopular right now?
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I felt a great disturbance in the force. As if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror. Then were suddenly silenced.
The Saga returns; August 15th 2008.
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DarthKarde
Registered:
Jun '02
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Date Posted:
5/1 4:01am
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
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G-FETT posted:
DarthKarde posted:
G-FETT posted:
Why are they moving that quickly on the by election? Thats barely a three week campaign?
The incumbent party tends to prefer a short campaign if the seat is at risk.
It is strongly rumoured that YouGov's final poll will show Boris winning by 53% to 47%. This ties in well with my prediction that Boris will win by 4-7%. Peter Kellner (founder and public face of YouGov) has apparently said “One thing is certain: by Friday night - either Ken Livingstone or I will be out of a job”.
LOL! I read on one website yesterday that Ken Livingstone has threatened YouGov with legal action yeserday, claiming their polls are biased! Isn't Peter Kellner a LABOUR supporter in his spare time, though?
Are the Tories in with a shout at Crewe and Nantwich? I noticed on the NotW marginals poll at the weekend, that on the swing that poll suggested, the Tories could expect to pick up Crew, but it was right at the end of the seats list, meaning that even on a 9% swing theres no guarantee they could get this one? But on the other hand the government are very unpopular right now?
Kellner is a left winger himself but YouGov polls have consistently been better for the tories than any others.
The Tories simply must gain Crewe & Nantwich. While they can win a general election without the seat they should be achieving a much higher swing in a by election. They need a swing of less than 5% and if they can't do that in the current climate their poll leads would appear to be vastly exaggerated.
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G-FETT
Registered:
Aug '01
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Date Posted:
5/1 4:40am
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
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Troube is in by elections, its those pesky Lib-Dems complicating the issue. 
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I felt a great disturbance in the force. As if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror. Then were suddenly silenced.
The Saga returns; August 15th 2008.
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DarthKarde
Registered:
Jun '02
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Date Posted:
5/1 12:04pm
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
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A quick word on the local elections. The headline figures will show very little change because the tories are fighting from a very high base. They could have a good night and only gain 5 or 6 councils and around 150 councillors. Here is a very quick guide as to councils to watch.
The tories really need to show progress in the Metroplitan Borough's. They will most likley lose Coventry to NOC (outside chance of a Labour gain) but can offset this by winning Bury and North Tyneside. They also need to make progress in West Yorkshire where there are 11 or 12 marginal parliamentary seats. In Wales they should pick up Vale of Glamorgan and should gain a handful of districts in England such as Barrow-in Furness, Basingstoke & Deane, Cheltenham and Gosport. They are vulnerable in Rossendale, Hyndburn and Lincoln.
Labour will hope to avoid any shock defeats in their urban heartlands and will hope to gain Coventry and Sheffield. They will also make good progress in Liverpool and could cost the Lib Dem's overall control. In Wales Labour may well lose 4 of their 8 councils with Caerphilly, Blaenau Gwent, Flintshire and Merthyr Tydfil all likely to be lost. They will probably lose Reading (their only council in SE England) but could gain Slough.
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G-FETT
Registered:
Aug '01
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Date Posted:
5/1 1:17pm
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
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Thanks Karde. 
What overall share of the vote do you think we'll see?
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I felt a great disturbance in the force. As if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror. Then were suddenly silenced.
The Saga returns; August 15th 2008.
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DarthKarde
Registered:
Jun '02
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Date Posted:
5/1 4:30pm
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
- Date Edited:
5/1 5:12pm (4 edits total)
Edited By:
DarthKarde
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Early results.
Con gain West Lindsey from Lib Dems and Harlow from NOC.
Lib Dems gain Hull from NOC
Still counting here in Birmingham but so far the tories have gained 5 seats from labour.
EDIT: Superb gain for the Tories at Nuneaton & Bedworth. This district has been labour controlled since it's creation in 1973. The only cloud is that the BNP also won two seats here.
EDIT 2: Tories have gained six seat in Birmingham (all from labour) and the Lib Dems have held 4 marginal wards from a labour challenge. Still three to come in but a catastrophe for labour here.
EDIT 3: Stunning night for the tories in Southampton. They have gained 8 seats and took the council from NOC.
EDIT 4: I can't find any ward results (yet) for Southampton but by my reckoning it means they have won 15 out of the 16 wards.
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G-FETT
Registered:
Aug '01
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Date Posted:
5/1 5:14pm
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
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Conservatives share of the vote is +7 on 2004, so far, which puts them on 45%! Labour look as though they will drop to 24%.
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I felt a great disturbance in the force. As if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror. Then were suddenly silenced.
The Saga returns; August 15th 2008.
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DarthKarde
Registered:
Jun '02
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Date Posted:
5/1 5:17pm
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
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UKIP win a seat in Dudley. The first time we have ever won a seat in a Metropolitan Borough 
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G-FETT
Registered:
Aug '01
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Date Posted:
5/1 5:18pm
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
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Looking at these numbers, the big increase in Tory support and Labour polling worse than 2004, can Brown survive this?
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I felt a great disturbance in the force. As if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror. Then were suddenly silenced.
The Saga returns; August 15th 2008.
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DarthKarde
Registered:
Jun '02
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Date Posted:
5/1 5:54pm
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
- Date Edited:
5/1 7:07pm (4 edits total)
Edited By:
DarthKarde
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G-FETT posted:
Looking at these numbers, the big increase in Tory support and Labour polling worse than 2004, can Brown survive this?
These are very bad results for Labour no doubt about it. However I can't see Brown being removed.
Tories gain Bury by a Majority of 1.
Labour hold Barnsley by an equally small majority (a rare piece of good news for them)
Tories miss out in Cheltenham and Gosport both of which remain NOC.
UKIP pick up another seat this time in Hartlepool
EDIT 1: Lib Dems lose Liverpool to NOC but they retain exactly half the seats on the council. This is better than they expected.
EDIT 2: Back to that amazing result in Southampton. The Tories have won 14 out of 16 wards. They won Coxford (the ward of our own D_A) by just 34 votes from labour who in turn were only 68 votes ahead of the Lib Dems. Both The Labour leader of the council and the Lib Dem group leader lost their seats.
EDIT 3: Disaster in Daventry for the conservatives as the sole Labour councillor survives, as does the one Lib Dems standing for re election this year. The council still remains on a knife edge
Con: 35
LD: 2
Lab: 1
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G-FETT
Registered:
Aug '01
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Date Posted:
5/2 4:51am
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
- Date Edited:
5/2 4:53am (1 edits total)
Edited By:
G-FETT
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DarthKarde posted:
EDIT 3: Disaster in Daventry for the conservatives as the sole Labour councillor survives, as does the one Lib Dems standing for re election this year. The council still remains on a knife edge
Con: 35
LD: 2
Lab: 1
Labour continuing to lose seats this morning. Have now lost over 200 councillors! The Tories have gained 10 councils
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I felt a great disturbance in the force. As if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror. Then were suddenly silenced.
The Saga returns; August 15th 2008.
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G-FETT
Registered:
Aug '01
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Date Posted:
5/2 6:07am
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
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Labour now at -300 for seats. Conservatives on there way up to +250. Labour routed in Wales. And Boris now almost certain to beat Ken Livingstone. This is truely astonishing!
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I felt a great disturbance in the force. As if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror. Then were suddenly silenced.
The Saga returns; August 15th 2008.
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DarthKarde
Registered:
Jun '02
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Date Posted:
5/2 10:27am
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
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I have just got home from work and flicking through from one astonishing result to the next. Last night was a catastrophe for Labour.
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The UK Independance Party - http://www.ukip.org The Freedom Association - http://www.tfa.net Better Off Out - http://www.betteroffout.co.uk Say NO2ID and the database state - http://www.no2id.net/
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Darth_Asabrush
Registered:
May '00
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Date Posted:
5/2 10:29am
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
- Date Edited:
5/2 10:30am (1 edits total)
Edited By:
Darth_Asabrush
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Well, How about that? The Tories gained Southampton including Coxford Ward, the Lib Dem leader and Labour leader both losing their seats!!!! - that is a result in my book!
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