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Topic:
2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
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G-FETT
Registered:
Aug '01
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Date Posted:
5/2 11:10am
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
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I've got a feeling Labour will ditch Brown, you know. You look at these results and they look SO bad that I just can't see how they can go into a general election with him.
Anybody know why the London Mayoral count is taking so long?
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I felt a great disturbance in the force. As if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror. Then were suddenly silenced.
The Saga returns; August 15th 2008.
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DarthKarde
Registered:
Jun '02
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Date Posted:
5/2 11:15am
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
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Darth_Asabrush posted:
Well, How about that? The Tories gained Southampton including Coxford Ward, the Lib Dem leader and Labour leader both losing their seats!!!! - that is a result in my book!
Southampton was the result of the night for the Tories, no doubt about it. Nobody, and I mean nobody was talking about this as a possibility. I thought a gain in 2010 was possible but to win 14 out of 16 wards was unthinkable.
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DarthKarde
Registered:
Jun '02
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Date Posted:
5/2 11:17am
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
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G-FETT posted:
I've got a feeling Labour will ditch Brown, you know. You look at these results and they look SO bad that I just can't see how they can go into a general election with him.
Anybody know why the London Mayoral count is taking so long?
It's another New Labour idea. The mayoral election is counted by machine. It's modern and efficient and like most New Labour innovations it's rubbish.
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G-FETT
Registered:
Aug '01
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Date Posted:
5/2 11:25am
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
- Date Edited:
5/2 11:26am (1 edits total)
Edited By:
G-FETT
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So heres a poser. SKY have Labour losses at a meltdown inducing -434, whilst the BBC have it at a terrible, but slightly less bad -331
Any idea why the numbers are so differant? It not the case of dear old Auntie trying to soften the blow for Labour, is it? 
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I felt a great disturbance in the force. As if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror. Then were suddenly silenced.
The Saga returns; August 15th 2008.
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DarthKarde
Registered:
Jun '02
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Date Posted:
5/2 11:45am
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
- Date Edited:
5/2 12:06pm (1 edits total)
Edited By:
DarthKarde
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G-FETT posted:
So heres a poser. SKY have Labour losses at a meltdown inducing -434, whilst the BBC have it at a terrible, but slightly less bad -331
Any idea why the numbers are so differant? It not the case of dear old Auntie trying to soften the blow for Labour, is it?
SKY are using notional figures for the 4 new Unitary Authorities and thus recording losses and gains. The BBC are not doing so and for once I think they are right.
I gather that London Assembly declarations will be starting soon. Labour have apparently held City & East but Johnson is said to have polled much better than the tory assembly candidate.
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The UK Independance Party - http://www.ukip.org The Freedom Association - http://www.tfa.net Better Off Out - http://www.betteroffout.co.uk Say NO2ID and the database state - http://www.no2id.net/
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DarthKarde
Registered:
Jun '02
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Date Posted:
5/2 12:12pm
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
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Various media outlets are now saying Boris has won. Sean Fear (tory activist and election expert) says he he is pretty sure that Boris has won. It looks like Labours rout is about to get worse.
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G-FETT
Registered:
Aug '01
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Date Posted:
5/2 12:14pm
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
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This is a shambles isn't it? Several media outlets are saying, etc... This is no way to run an election.
I'm pleased Red Ken has finally lost an election, though. 
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I felt a great disturbance in the force. As if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror. Then were suddenly silenced.
The Saga returns; August 15th 2008.
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DarthKarde
Registered:
Jun '02
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Date Posted:
5/2 12:34pm
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
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G-FETT posted:
This is a shambles isn't it? Several media outlets are saying, etc... This is no way to run an election.
I'm pleased Red Ken has finally lost an election, though.
It certainly is is starting to look like a farce.
It is also being suggested that the Tories have done fairly badly in the Assembly election. Apparently they have failed to gain Enfield & Harringey and have lost Brent & Harrow. This doesn't really matter as this loss will probably give them a top up seat instead.
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G-FETT
Registered:
Aug '01
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Date Posted:
5/2 12:36pm
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
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Why would the Tories get the Mayor, but do badly in the Assembly?
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I felt a great disturbance in the force. As if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror. Then were suddenly silenced.
The Saga returns; August 15th 2008.
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DarthKarde
Registered:
Jun '02
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Date Posted:
5/2 12:44pm
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
- Date Edited:
5/2 1:01pm (1 edits total)
Edited By:
DarthKarde
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G-FETT posted:
Why would the Tories get the Mayor, but do badly in the Assembly?
Good question. It might be that Ken was able to mobilise large numbers of ethnic minority voters and old labour voters in Harringey and in Brent which while not doing enough to save him has produced surprising results in the two seats I mentioned.
EDIT: Brent & Harrow confirmed as a Labour gain but Bexley & Bromley is a tory hold with a majority of over 75000 compared to circa 32000 4 years ago.
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Jedi Ben
Registered:
Jul '99
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Date Posted:
5/2 1:55pm
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
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The real Q on the London assembly is whether or not the BNP have a seat. Beyond that, it'll be party politics as usual.
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DarthKarde
Registered:
Jun '02
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Date Posted:
5/2 2:00pm
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
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Jedi Ben posted:
The real Q on the London assembly is whether or not the BNP have a seat. Beyond that, it'll be party politics as usual.
I would be very, very surprised if they don't get a seat.
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Jedi Ben
Registered:
Jul '99
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Date Posted:
5/2 2:27pm
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
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DarthKarde posted:
Jedi Ben posted:
The real Q on the London assembly is whether or not the BNP have a seat. Beyond that, it'll be party politics as usual.
I would be very, very surprised if they don't get a seat.
At which point, cue a political crapstorm. Under FPTP they wouldn't have a hope, but due to the joys of STV being a variant of PR, they do have a very good chance.
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Other guy: Could I have your autograph?
Darth Vader: No, **** off or I'll kill you with a tray!
Give me penne all'arrabiata or you shall die!
And you and everyone in this canteen!
Death by tray it shall be!
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DarthKarde
Registered:
Jun '02
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Date Posted:
5/2 3:47pm
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
- Date Edited:
5/2 4:00pm (2 edits total)
Edited By:
DarthKarde
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All first preference votes are now counted.
Boris 1,043k (43%)
Ken 893k (37%)
To put this in perspective in 2004 Ken got circa 750k votes. As much as I can't stand the man he deserves a lot of credit for putting up such a good fight in such difficult circumstances. He was simply swept away by the national tide.
YouGov have been totally vindicated as their final poll is probably going to be almost bang on. They also correctly predicted a far smaller swing in the assembly election than in the mayoral election.
EDIT 1: After second preference votes
Boris: 53.2%
Ken: 47.8%
margin 6.4%
Within the 4-7% range that I predicted
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Darth_Asabrush
Registered:
May '00
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Date Posted:
5/3 1:31am
Subject:
RE: 2008 - A Big Year for British Politics
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I must admit. I do like a good election. They can be so brutal which is healthy, don't you think?
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