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Topic:
The Fountain of Youth: Possibility and effects of life extension
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Darth-Ghost
Registered:
Oct '03
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Date Posted:
2/21/06 10:17am
Subject:
The Fountain of Youth: Possibility and effects of life extension
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http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20060221/ts_alt_afp/ushealthageingresearch
100th birthdays may soon be the norm in rich nations: researchers
ST LOUIS, United States (AFP) - Life expectancy may balloon to 100 years old in rich nations thanks to scientific advances, but such progress could widen the gap between wealthy and poor nations, according to researchers.
Within the next 10 years, state-of-the-art, anti-ageing technologies could -- if they come into widespread use -- radically start altering global demographics, extending people's lifespans by 20 years, according to Shripad Tuljapurkar, a Stanford University biologist.
Tuljapurkar, in a study presented here Friday to the annual meeting of the The American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), said such technologies could see people in industrialized countries living to age 100.
Aubrey De Gray, a biologist at Cambridge University in England, backed up Tuljapurkar's research.
"There is a 50 percent chance of creating therapies within 20 years to give middle-aged people an extra 25 years of life," De Gray said.
However, Tuljapurkar, who is also a professor of population studies, warned such advances could trigger critical social and socio-economic problems, creating a larger gap between the world's rich and poor.
He also questions how the world and policymakers would cope with a "longer-lived" population.
"Some people believe we are on the brink of being able to extend human lifespan significantly, because we've got most of the technologies we need to do it," Tuljapurkar said.
He estimated that between 2010 and 2030, the most common age of death will increase by 20 years if anti-ageing therapies come into wide use.
This projected increase would see an increase in the most common age of death in industrialized countries such as the United States from roughly 80 years to 100.
Eileen Crimmins, a biologist at the University of Southern California, believes policymakers will be able to adjust to ageing populations.
"Science and medicine will continue to push aging back at a gradual pace and the trend toward longer life should be manageable. Demography isn't destiny; accommodations can be made with sensible policies," Crimmins said.
Tuljapurkar warned, however, that inequalities could emerge as wealthy individuals who can afford such technologies turn to companies marketing anti-ageing treatments.
"Are some people going to be left behind? Are we going to make society far more unequal than it is now?" he said.
He predicts that lifespan booms could be confined to rich states whose citizens can afford such benefits and whose governments have the cash to sponsor such cutting-edge science.
And he cautions that the distribution of anti-ageing technologies is likely to be controlled by companies focused on maximising returns for their share holders.
Noting than many Africans cannot afford or gain access to crucial AIDS drug treatments, Tuljapurkar warns anti-ageing breakthroughs could create fresh problems for those seeking such treatments but unable to afford them.
"If we can't deal with AIDS in Africa, the chance that we'll be able to deliver these anti-aging technologies to other nations is pretty slim," he said.
He said that if anti-ageing technologies are distributed in an unchecked free market, "it's entirely likely to me that we'll wind up with permanent global underclasses, countries that get locked into today's mortality conditions".
According to Tuljapurkar's research, if anti-ageing therapies come into common use, the world's population could balloon to between 10 and 11 billion people between 2010 and 2030, compared to current projections of eight billion.
First, do you think it's possible? I definitely think it is, science has already extended our lifespans. And we now know the main causes of aging, which makes it easier to slow down, reverse, or even eliminate aging.
Second, what do you think the effects of it will be? The article predicts that there will not be only good effects, but some bad effects too. That it would widen the gap between the rich and the poor, with rich countries like the United States being able to afford it for their citzens, but not in poorer countries, like those in Africa. And some people will probably also bring in overpopulation, but there is always Antartica, the oceans, and outer space to move into if it gets crowded.
Third, do you think it should be done? Why or why not? I think that if one day it's definitely proven to be possible, then the experts should look at all the effects and how to handle them, and not sell it until everything's prepared for it. Because if it happens, it will definitely have a big impact on everything.
Aubrey de Gray, mentioned in the article, had already predicted this might happen. That this can all be accomplished by the end of the 21st century, at the latest. I remember reading an article about him before, and visiting his website. Looking at it again, some sections of it talk about the concerns we might have about life extension, and why he thinks it's possible to get rid of aging. He thinks that once we prove we can significantly extend the lives of animals, like mice, then people will demmand it for them once they hear about it. Then they'll get funding because in democratic countries the people elect the government, so the politicians will support it to stay in power. And once it becomes possible for humans to live to 100 they'll get more support, and they will be able to keep increasing our lifespans over time until we no longer have to worry about aging at all. That's his theory, anyways.
So, what do you think about extending life?
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Andreas_Lamont
Registered:
Jun '05
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Date Posted:
2/21/06 10:29am
Subject:
RE: The Fountain of Youth: Possibility and effects of life extension
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I think its foolish, extending life at what cost? First of all, i hate the first paragraph of that webpage, It mentions Cureing ageing. Ageing isnt a disease, its a compleatly natural cycle for life, were born, we run our course, and we die. simple. the more scientists muck about with life in this way, the less human we continue to be. cant they do something useful like cureing cancer? that would extend lifespans of many people straight off. would i want an extention on my life? personaly? no. because what happens when i hit 70 with alzhimers(?spl?) i live in my shell with a rotten mind for the next 30 years because my life has been expanded. If we give people the chance to extend life, many would argue the chance to end life too. how much more of a god game are we willing to play?
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Darth-Ghost
Registered:
Oct '03
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Date Posted:
2/21/06 11:06am
Subject:
RE: The Fountain of Youth: Possibility and effects of life extension
- Date Edited:
2/21/06 11:12am (1 edits total)
Edited By:
Darth-Ghost
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Andreas_Lamont posted:
I think its foolish, extending life at what cost? First of all, i hate the first paragraph of that webpage, It mentions Cureing ageing. Ageing isnt a disease, its a compleatly natural cycle for life, were born, we run our course, and we die. simple. the more scientists muck about with life in this way, the less human we continue to be. cant they do something useful like cureing cancer? that would extend lifespans of many people straight off. would i want an extention on my life? personaly? no. because what happens when i hit 70 with alzhimers(?spl?) i live in my shell with a rotten mind for the next 30 years because my life has been expanded. If we give people the chance to extend life, many would argue the chance to end life too. how much more of a god game are we willing to play?
I think you should read this and this from that site. I just reread those sections, and they talk about your concerns.
Aging does cause death and suffering, so you could say getting rid of it would be "curing" it, but if you don't like that word, just use another. It's also natural to get diseases, doesn't mean we shouldn't cure them.
I don't think extending our lives will make us less human, before people rarely lived past 40. Is an 80 year old person inhuman? Is someone with a heart transplant, or an artificial heart, inhuman?
Just because they are working on curing aging doesn't make the people who are working on a cure for cancer any less productive. It's not a choice between the two, you can work for both at the same time!
And this doesn't make someone keep getting older and older, it makes someone younger for a longer amount of time. Like a 70 year old would have the body of a 35 year old. I think that's how it works, not only extending life but also youth, so we never get frail minds or bodies that come with old age. If you don't want it, then just don't buy it, but other people might want to.
I don't think it's playing God. Anyways, most religions value life.
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VadersLaMent
Registered:
Apr '02
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Date Posted:
2/21/06 12:06pm
Subject:
RE: The Fountain of Youth: Possibility and effects of life extension
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Scientists Find What Type Of Genes Affect Longevity
Here's the thing about this article, there was another on the same site that I can't find. In the article I posted there is this line:
But when daf-2 engages the whole army of genes, they can produce huge changes in lifespan.
Still dealing with worms the scientist poited out that the increase in life span for these worms was the equivelent of a 500 year old human, and even the dead treated worms looked to be in better condition than the dead untreated worms.
In previous longevity research there have been side effects like the loss of sexual desire and ability, and/or having to go on a calorie restricted diet that leaves you rather undernurished. In the daf-2 manipulation there are no side effects in any test to date.
Many longevity proponents are snake oil salesman, but this particular scientist was a tried and true cancer researcher for 20 years and discovered that mechanisms in cancer cells were age related and therefore changed her research to longevity.
As i recall she wasn't actually sure that she could make 500 year old humans, but that drastic changes to life span seem very possible.
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darthOB1
Registered:
Mar '00
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Date Posted:
2/21/06 12:41pm
Subject:
RE: The Fountain of Youth: Possibility and effects of life extension
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The whole concept of living extended periods beyond what we deem as normal seems to indicate to me that growing old and dying is not normal.
If it were normal why do people try to extend their lives, through surgury to remove cancers, exercise, and healthy diets for example? And now this? Whith the regenerative properties the human body has, it seems to me that mankind was designed to live a lot loner than they do and even forever given all the broken pieces are fixed.
The possibility of extending human life is intriguing to me since it is the very foundation of my faith that gives me hope!
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Eleventh_Guard
Registered:
Dec '05
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Date Posted:
2/21/06 2:01pm
Subject:
RE: The Fountain of Youth: Possibility and effects of life extension
- Date Edited:
2/21/06 2:02pm (1 edits total)
Edited By:
Eleventh_Guard
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Most of the time, when the life expectancy of an era/area is low, it's due to high infant and child mortality - not because people's lives are very short. It's a factor, indeed, but life expectancy at age 20 is a better measurement of longevity.
Everything gets old and dies. It's nature, and I'm not particularly worried about it. (And all the anti-aging in the world won't help someone who is dying of a disease or other condition that isn't directly related to aging.) I think that if scientists want to create technologies to extend life, fine, but I'm not interested and won't use it. Gray hair and fine lines are a sign of experience, as far as I'm concerned, and I'd rather not look like I'm 20 if I'm actually 35.
What I don't like about this is that once it catches on it will widen the gap between those who can afford it and those who can't. Our culture is already obsessed with youth, and people who can often spend vast amounts of money to "look younger," with hair color, cosmetic surgery, all kinds of makeup, etc. And except for the makeup, which is rare except onstage and on TV, men do it too, and add in hair replacement. Are people going to have to shell out extra money to actually function as though they're younger, too, or risk being seen as a have-not and have more trouble getting job interviews and such?
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Jedi_Keiran_Halcyon
Registered:
Dec '00
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Date Posted:
2/21/06 2:26pm
Subject:
RE: The Fountain of Youth: Possibility and effects of life extension
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how much more of a god game are we willing to play?
Not all of us consider "playing god" to be such a bad thing (especially those of use who don't believe in a god).
As far as extending life, since I have a fair degree of certainty that my individual consciousness will cease when I die, I wouldn't mind a few more years of life.
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T-65XJ
Registered:
Jul '02
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Date Posted:
2/21/06 2:51pm
Subject:
RE: The Fountain of Youth: Possibility and effects of life extension
- Date Edited:
2/21/06 3:03pm (1 edits total)
Edited By:
T-65XJ
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The 2 problems they posed are mutually exclusive. They can't both be problems at once.
Anti-aging treatments won't contribute to overpopulation if they make it very expensive and only the rich in rich countries can afford it.
There won't be a gap between the rich and poor's ability to access it if governments make sure it's available to everyone.
My view? Overpopulation is a much worse problem than some moral issues people have. So if it can be done, it should be done. But price it so that only the elite have access to it.
Cause if you subsidise it or squeeze the profits of the companies that make it through government intervention, either no one will manufacture it or you get massive overpopulation.
What are you trying to achieve? Fairness? So should Rolls Royce and Ferrari be put out of business because not everyone can afford it?
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VadersLaMent
Registered:
Apr '02
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Date Posted:
2/21/06 3:35pm
Subject:
RE: The Fountain of Youth: Possibility and effects of life extension
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Why does everyone think this would be so expensive?
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Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic--Arthur C. Clarke
Any sufficiently advanced extraterrestrial intelligence is indistinguishable from God--Michael Shermer
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malkieD2
Title: EuroMod™-JCC - FFUK-RSA Emeritus
Registered:
Jun '02
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Date Posted:
2/21/06 3:38pm
Subject:
RE: The Fountain of Youth: Possibility and effects of life extension
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Why does everyone think this is biologically possible?
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DARTH-SHREDDER
Registered:
May '05
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Date Posted:
2/21/06 5:34pm
Subject:
RE: The Fountain of Youth: Possibility and effects of life extension
- Date Edited:
2/21/06 5:35pm (1 edits total)
Edited By:
DARTH-SHREDDER
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cant they do something useful like cureing cancer?
You mean like through stem cell research? It's already being attempted.
As for the issue of prolonging life, since I'm a progressive and a liberal, I don't oppose this. I see the possible problems with it, but you just really can't stop it from happening, just like any other scientific breakthrough.
Instead of wanting to stop this altogether, I believe it's better to monitor it.
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Jabbadabbado
Registered:
Mar '99
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Date Posted:
2/21/06 7:16pm
Subject:
RE: The Fountain of Youth: Possibility and effects of life extension
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There are competing qne opposing trends at work here. Because of advancing medical technology, a growing percentage of people in rich societies will be able to reach their maximum lifespans (up to 110 years or so). On the other hand, the obesity epidemic and our sedentary lifestyles will mean that on the whole and on average, our generation won't live as long as our parents. We're essentially a bunch of fatties who will die in our fifties and sixties of complications from diabetes, heart and renal failure, and colon cancer.
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J-Rod
Registered:
Jul '04
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Date Posted:
2/21/06 8:27pm
Subject:
RE: The Fountain of Youth: Possibility and effects of life extension
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Dude, is there anything you like about America?
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Andreas_Lamont
Registered:
Jun '05
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Date Posted:
2/22/06 12:50am
Subject:
RE: The Fountain of Youth: Possibility and effects of life extension
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Darth-Ghost posted:
I think you should read this and this from that site. I just reread those sections, and they talk about your concerns.
Aging does cause death and suffering, so you could say getting rid of it would be "curing" it, but if you don't like that word, just use another. It's also natural to get diseases, doesn't mean we shouldn't cure them.
I don't think extending our lives will make us less human, before people rarely lived past 40. Is an 80 year old person inhuman? Is someone with a heart transplant, or an artificial heart, inhuman?
Just because they are working on curing aging doesn't make the people who are working on a cure for cancer any less productive. It's not a choice between the two, you can work for both at the same time!
And this doesn't make someone keep getting older and older, it makes someone younger for a longer amount of time. Like a 70 year old would have the body of a 35 year old. I think that's how it works, not only extending life but also youth, so we never get frail minds or bodies that come with old age. If you don't want it, then just don't buy it, but other people might want to.
I don't think it's playing God. Anyways, most religions value life.
ok, to start on another foot, i agree with you in a way, that this *could* be good. but ageing technicaly, biologicaly, is not a disease and it never will be. its a stage of life and has been part of the life cycle since time began.
to answer your third paragraph, of course 80 isnt inhuman, we havent done anything to artificaly affect that lifespan, that happens naturaly in our enviroment anyway. same with someone with a heart transplant, their still only going to live as long as their body lets them, so really their life hasnt been extended at all.
I'm not saying that the researchers of cancer are going to suffer from this, what i'm saying is they would benefit from the extra resources, personel and time spent in cancer reacearch, by all means when we can cure cancer, then go onto prolonging life, curing cancer is prolonging life.
I'm with M-D2 what if it isnt biologicaly possible to keep a body younger for longer, sure we can replace parts, get treatment, but a 1979 ford mustang, with a 2005 made engine is still a 26 year old car. what about the other bits on it? I'm sorry, but theirs precious little in the world I could belive would stop the ageing of a human mind, its still going to be suspect to the usual ageing problems. no matter how much work you do on the body.
When i say playing god, i'm not refering to belief in hevanly bodies, if i said playing fashon designer it wouldnt really have the desired impact 
Cheers
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Yoda FTW!
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RevantheJediMaster
Registered:
Jun '05
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Date Posted:
2/22/06 6:29pm
Subject:
RE: The Fountain of Youth: Possibility and effects of life extension
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DARTH-SHREDDER posted:
cant they do something useful like cureing cancer?
You mean like through stem cell research? It's already being attempted.
As for the issue of prolonging life, since I'm a progressive and a liberal, I don't oppose this. I see the possible problems with it, but you just really can't stop it from happening, just like any other scientific breakthrough.
Instead of wanting to stop this altogether, I believe it's better to monitor it.
Didn't they find a breakthrough way a couple months back to treat Cancer via the AV2 Virus? I think it's still in the developmental stage but the virus provides an almost pain way free to fight Cancer.
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VadersLaMent
Registered:
Apr '02
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Date Posted:
3/12/06 6:17am
Subject:
RE: The Fountain of Youth: Possibility and effects of life extension
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Thought this might be interesting:
For The First Time: Longevity Modulated Without Disrupting Life-sustaining Function
Anyone have lots of money they can donate to these folks?
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Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic--Arthur C. Clarke
Any sufficiently advanced extraterrestrial intelligence is indistinguishable from God--Michael Shermer
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