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Topic:
An Inconvenient Thread: Causes and Effects of Global Warming
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Souderwan
Registered:
Jun '05
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Date Posted:
4/23 9:10pm
Subject:
RE: An Inconvenient Thread: Causes and Effects of Global Warming
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The IPCC 4th assessment said "warming of the climate system is unequivocal..." Unequivocal. That is not used everyday by scientists. That is only used when something is not disputed. So yes, when you go up against something that is "unequivocal," expect a harsh response. Scientists have put their entire lives working on this and when some random guy decides to disagree w/o knowing enough on the subject, it probably pisses them off. I know I would be pissed off.
1. No one disputes warming. I'm beginning to wonder if you read my post. People dispute the "why" and the "how", not the "what". That being said, there is a fair argument to even questioning the validity of the data itself, but whatever.
2. The people I'm referring to are not "random guys" and you know it. What's more, the visceral response is rarely from scientists. It's almost exclusively from environmentalists with a political agenda to push.
According to the wedge theory, we can break down our problems into 7 parts. All we have to do is slightly reduce our emissions on seven fronts, gradually increasing them as the years go by, and the carbon emissions will level. This will not stop warming from happening, but it will stop the problem from getting worse.
So the answer to my question would be "No, Brian. I don't know something you don't know." I'm aware of this approach but it doesn't solve the worst-case doom-and-gloom scenarios in the least, only delays them, at best. As I said earlier in the thread, even if you stopped all CO2 emissions right now, according to the models being used today, we'd still face disaster.
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king_alvarez
Registered:
May '07
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Date Posted:
4/24 6:10am
Subject:
RE: An Inconvenient Thread: Causes and Effects of Global Warming
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Lord_Vivec posted:
According to the wedge theory, we can break down our problems into 7 parts. All we have to do is slightly reduce our emissions on seven fronts, gradually increasing them as the years go by, and the carbon emissions will level. This will not stop warming from happening, but it will stop the problem from getting worse.
The thing is, the climate models have been notoriously bad at making predictions. Basically, we have no idea what is really going to happen. Reducing emissions is no guarantee that it will stop or change anything. I think it is mostly because human activities, in any form, are going to affect the climate in ways that we probably can't predict.
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Kimball_Kinnison
Registered:
Oct '01
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Date Posted:
4/24 7:57am
Subject:
RE: An Inconvenient Thread: Causes and Effects of Global Warming
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Lord_Vivec posted:
The IPCC 4th assessment said "warming of the climate system is unequivocal..." Unequivocal. That is not used everyday by scientists. That is only used when something is not disputed. So yes, when you go up against something that is "unequivocal," expect a harsh response. Scientists have put their entire lives working on this and when some random guy decides to disagree w/o knowing enough on the subject, it probably pisses them off. I know I would be pissed off.
There is a very big difference between cause and effect. The IPCC states that the effect ("warming of the climate system") was unequivocal. That says nothing about the cause.
That's like saying that it is unequivocal that the ocean rises and falls by significant amounts along the shore on a roughly 24-hour cycle. That is the observable effect, but it doesn't mean that the cause of the effect is unequivocal.
For me, the biggest warning flag is the reluctance of anyone to discuss the science behind it in a critical manner. All too often, we are told "It's a fact" by people who aren't even sure themselves what they mean by "it". What is a fact? That the earth is warming up? Sure. That mankind is responsible for it? Not at all. That is a theory, not a fact, and it's not even the only theory supported by the evidence.
If something is so unequivocal from a scientific perspective, then there should be no problem with a critical analysis of it. Science should never be taken on faith. But that is what many people do when they insist that global warming (I mean "climate change") should not be questioned. That is just as much pseudoscience as Intelligent Design.
Kimball Kinnison
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Jabbadabbado
Title: Senate Floor Moderator
Registered:
Mar '99
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Date Posted:
4/24 9:08am
Subject:
RE: An Inconvenient Thread: Causes and Effects of Global Warming
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My take on it is that it is a near certainty that some level of AGW is occurring. At the same time, however, whether there is any kind of feasible "fix" to the problem is nearly impossible to quantify. By the time scientists thoroughly study the problm, moreover, the question will be moot. We will have burned through 95% of the world's fossil fuel resource base. There is simply no stopping it. The human, economic and political costs of will be too high. Humans instead will be forced to adapt to their new surroundings, whatever they turn out to be.
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Lord_Vivec
Registered:
Apr '06
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Date Posted:
4/24 10:15am
Subject:
RE: An Inconvenient Thread: Causes and Effects of Global Warming
- Date Edited:
4/24 10:19am (1 edits total)
Edited By:
Lord_Vivec
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Souderwan posted:
People dispute the "why" and the "how", not the "what". That being said, there is a fair argument to even questioning the validity of the data itself, but whatever.
Like I said, I was gonna get to that.
There is absolutely no reason why we should be have a such a rise in CO2 now and not before unless humans, more precisely, the Industrial Revolution have been the cause. When you say the data may or may not be valid, it looks like you're grasping at straws, anything to just make all the scientists shut up so that global warming will go away.
Souderwan posted:
2. The people I'm referring to are not "random guys" and you know it. What's more, the visceral response is rarely from scientists. It's almost exclusively from environmentalists with a political agenda to push.
Environmentalists do not have a political agenda. They have an environmental agenda and politics is a means to an end. That said, environmentalists are not part of this discussion, as they have nothing scientific to contribute.
Souderwan posted:
So the answer to my question would be "No, Brian. I don't know something you don't know." I'm aware of this approach but it doesn't solve the worst-case doom-and-gloom scenarios in the least, only delays them, at best. As I said earlier in the thread, even if you stopped all CO2 emissions right now, according to the models being used today, we'd still face disaster.
Actually, it will stop the worst case scenarios. It won't stop warming completely, but we can save Greenland from melting, etc.
That mankind is responsible for it? Not at all. That is a theory, not a fact, and it's not even the only theory supported by the evidence.
Saying "Not at all" doesn't mean we're not responsible for it. Look at the graph of the CO2 variations. See how it goes up and down in normal cycles. Now look what happens at the very end. Just closing your eyes and screaming "I can't hear you" at the messenger isn't gonna solve the problem.
As for your "fact and theory" argument, there is no other theory supported by the evidence. You're grasping at straws.
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king_alvarez
Registered:
May '07
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Date Posted:
4/24 10:25am
Subject:
RE: An Inconvenient Thread: Causes and Effects of Global Warming
- Date Edited:
4/24 10:28am (1 edits total)
Edited By:
king_alvarez
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Lord_Vivec posted:
There is absolutely no reason why we should be have a such a rise in CO2 now and not before unless humans, more precisely, the Industrial Revolution have been the cause. When you say the data may or may not be valid, it looks like you're grasping at straws, anything to just make all the scientists shut up so that global warming will go away.
CO2 is just one of the many components that contribute to our climate. And even if it were the primary factor, emissions aren't the only source. IIRC, deforestation and other such human activities also contribute to the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere.
And I don't think anyone here is hoping that Global Warming will just go away. I think the point of several posters here is that Global Warming very possibly won't just go away like the GW advocates seem to suggest if we follow their various plans.
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Because life... is not a movie. Everyone lies. Good guys lose. And love... does not conquer all.
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Lord_Vivec
Registered:
Apr '06
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Date Posted:
4/24 12:33pm
Subject:
RE: An Inconvenient Thread: Causes and Effects of Global Warming
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king_alvarez posted:
Lord_Vivec posted:
There is absolutely no reason why we should be have a such a rise in CO2 now and not before unless humans, more precisely, the Industrial Revolution have been the cause. When you say the data may or may not be valid, it looks like you're grasping at straws, anything to just make all the scientists shut up so that global warming will go away.
CO2 is just one of the many components that contribute to our climate. And even if it were the primary factor, emissions aren't the only source. IIRC, deforestation and other such human activities also contribute to the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere.
If you look closely, you'll see that emissions make up about 60% of greenhouse gas emissions in the US.
king_alvarez posted:
And I don't think anyone here is hoping that Global Warming will just go away. I think the point of several posters here is that Global Warming very possibly won't just go away like the GW advocates seem to suggest if we follow their various plans.
Then said several posters are missing the point. GW advocates do not say that global warming will go away. If you read my previous post about the wedge theory, you would see that. I, along with many scientists, are saying that the impact of global warming can be decreased.
Take a look at this.
We can't fully stop the rise in sea level. But we can control how much it does rise. So which scenario is best for us? The first? Or the fourth?
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king_alvarez
Registered:
May '07
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Date Posted:
4/24 12:44pm
Subject:
RE: An Inconvenient Thread: Causes and Effects of Global Warming
- Date Edited:
4/24 12:57pm (1 edits total)
Edited By:
king_alvarez
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Lord_Vivec posted:
If you look closely, you'll see that emissions make up about 60% of greenhouse gas emissions in the US.
Can you prove exactly what impact those emissions have on the global climate? Look, no one's doubting that we're adding CO2 to the atmosphere. The question is what impact are those emissions having, what type of reductions are realistic, and will those reductions have the effect that we expect, and will any of that prevent other future types of climate change from other factors?
Edt:
Look, I try to keep up on all of the IPCC reports and read many of the actual reports that the climatologists release, and I do tend to believe much of what they say. But I think that we as a society need to get over the idea that reducing emissions is somehow going to solve all our problems and instead start focusing on real solutions to real problems.
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Because there are no story-book romances, no fairy-tale endings. So before you run out and change the world, ask yourself, "What do you really want?"
Because life... is not a movie. Everyone lies. Good guys lose. And love... does not conquer all.
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Jabbadabbado
Title: Senate Floor Moderator
Registered:
Mar '99
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Date Posted:
4/24 1:00pm
Subject:
RE: An Inconvenient Thread: Causes and Effects of Global Warming
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One serious effect of GW will be Europe making more jokes about the size of America's Florida.
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king_alvarez
Registered:
May '07
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Date Posted:
4/24 1:08pm
Subject:
RE: An Inconvenient Thread: Causes and Effects of Global Warming
- Date Edited:
4/24 1:09pm (1 edits total)
Edited By:
king_alvarez
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I'm more concerned about the redness of it. That much redness can't be good, and it looks like it's spreading.
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Because there are no story-book romances, no fairy-tale endings. So before you run out and change the world, ask yourself, "What do you really want?"
Because life... is not a movie. Everyone lies. Good guys lose. And love... does not conquer all.
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Jabbadabbado
Title: Senate Floor Moderator
Registered:
Mar '99
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Date Posted:
4/24 1:20pm
Subject:
RE: An Inconvenient Thread: Causes and Effects of Global Warming
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It was that one night stand with the Strait of Gibraltar.
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Souderwan
Registered:
Jun '05
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Date Posted:
4/24 1:30pm
Subject:
RE: An Inconvenient Thread: Causes and Effects of Global Warming
- Date Edited:
4/24 1:39pm (1 edits total)
Edited By:
Souderwan
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Vivec. Stop wasting your time with me and your graphs. I debated this about 4 or 5 pages back like a year ago--killed this thread for a while, too. I'm not gonna reiterate all that. I could post just as much stuff to poke holes in your arguments all day long. It's not worth my time or yours.
Suffice it to say that there is nothing conclusive about AGW. There are very good reasons to theorize that humans are a cause, but there is insufficient evidence, imo, to conclude a) that this is the case; and b) how significant the effect is. As for stopping global warming, I think you're deluding yourself.
Edit: Oh. And correlation =! causation. Oh! And pay attention to that 600 yr lead time from warming to CO2 rise. Oh! And..haha. I'm just kidding. Keep posting, dude. Whatever floats your boat. Just don't expect me to respond to it unless you're willing to go dissect my earlier arguments. 
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"When we hurt each other we should write it down in the sand,
so the winds of forgiveness can make it go away for good. When
we help each other we should chisel it in stone, lest we never
forget the love of a friend." ~Godefroy
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Lord_Vivec
Registered:
Apr '06
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Date Posted:
4/24 4:48pm
Subject:
RE: An Inconvenient Thread: Causes and Effects of Global Warming
- Date Edited:
4/24 4:48pm (1 edits total)
Edited By:
Lord_Vivec
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Souderwan posted:
Vivec. Stop wasting your time with me and your graphs. I debated this about 4 or 5 pages back like a year ago--killed this thread for a while, too. I'm not gonna reiterate all that. I could post just as much stuff to poke holes in your arguments all day long. It's not worth my time or yours.
You're just saying that because my graphs own.
Souderwan posted:
Suffice it to say that there is nothing conclusive about AGW. There are very good reasons to theorize that humans are a cause, but there is insufficient evidence, imo, to conclude a) that this is the case; and b) how significant the effect is. As for stopping global warming, I think you're deluding yourself.
You're entitled to that as an opinion. Just remember that when Florida needs viagra. 
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Lord_Vivec
Registered:
Apr '06
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Date Posted:
4/24 4:52pm
Subject:
RE: An Inconvenient Thread: Causes and Effects of Global Warming
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king_alvarez posted:
Lord_Vivec posted:
If you look closely, you'll see that emissions make up about 60% of greenhouse gas emissions in the US.
Can you prove exactly what impact those emissions have on the global climate? Look, no one's doubting that we're adding CO2 to the atmosphere. The question is what impact are those emissions having, what type of reductions are realistic, and will those reductions have the effect that we expect, and will any of that prevent other future types of climate change from other factors?
Edt:
Look, I try to keep up on all of the IPCC reports and read many of the actual reports that the climatologists release, and I do tend to believe much of what they say. But I think that we as a society need to get over the idea that reducing emissions is somehow going to solve all our problems and instead start focusing on real solutions to real problems.
At least you're not sick of my graphs.
I've stated earlier that we're not going to get rid of global warming. What I'm saying is that if we don't manage it, global warming is going to get rid of us. All we have to do is manage emissions and we can stop the gloom and doom. We won't stop global warming. Nothing will. But we can manage it.
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Souderwan
Registered:
Jun '05
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Date Posted:
4/24 5:42pm
Subject:
RE: An Inconvenient Thread: Causes and Effects of Global Warming
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Lord_Vivec posted:
You're just saying that because my graphs own.
My graphs own more and I have more of them
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