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Topic:
Oil Dependency, etc.
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Darth_OlsenTwins
Registered:
May '02
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Date Posted:
5/24/07 7:45am
Subject:
RE: Oil Dependency, etc.
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Do you really, honestly think people won't fight for the remaining energy sources if what you suggest comes to pass? You think governments and and societies will simply accept and ask their people to change their thinking?
To a degree, this fight is already beginning.
Human population will not stop growing by natural means, and energy consumption will probably not stop increasing as a result. There are a few ways that we can stop population from growing, and none of them are pleasant, and some are downright catastrophic.
There is really no "good" in what you just suggested.
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Jabbadabbado
Title: Senate Floor Moderator
Registered:
Mar '99
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Date Posted:
5/24/07 7:51am
Subject:
RE: Oil Dependency, etc.
- Date Edited:
5/24/07 7:54am (1 edits total)
Edited By:
Jabbadabbado
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Population. Food. Energy. Water.
These are, essentially, the only things that will matter over the next 25 years. The next American president will be the energy crisis president. Within a decade there will have to be a national water summit to broker a comprehensive and long term strategy for water distribution in the country. California and the southwest are going to run dry, so we're all going to have to sit down and come up with a national strategic plan before we build the pipeline that will empty the great lakes into Los Angeles and Orange county.
In the U.S. a lot of major policy challenges are going to be closely linked. The U.S., for example, cannot gain control over our energy consumption without gaining control over our population growth. And we can't gain control over our population unless we first gain control over immigration. So, as E_S has pointed out, coming up with a truly strategic approach to immigration has to be among our first national priorities.
Unfortunately, strategic policy planning is a not a strength of the legislative branch or, at least at present, of the executive branch either.
But back to energy, I think a slow, incremental increase of the gas tax to bring our gas prices in line with much of the rest of the industrialized world (e.g. Australia and Europe where people routinely pay $6 - $7/gallon). This will also bring some relative stability to prices instead of the dramatic seasonal price swings we're used to seeing.
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ShaneP
Registered:
Mar '01
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Date Posted:
5/24/07 11:27am
Subject:
RE: Oil Dependency, etc.
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The southwest already is running dry right now. There's a big dispute between LV and southwest Utah right now over water from the Virgin river. The city to the northwest of Saint George, Enterprise, is now digging wells down 800 feet to hit water. That's where their water table is at now.
Population projections for Utah's Washington Co. are expected to hit 300-500,000 people by 2020. This is a tiny corner of Utah folks. That shows how boomer-retirees are shifting whole regions.
No way do we have enough water planned for LV/Clarke Co, and Utah's Washington and Iron counties.
Something's gotta give way at some point.
But I agree with you about water as a huge issue. It's just starting right now, not waiting for the future.
Jabba
Domestic refiners definitely have incentive to expand capacity if they can. If they don't refine more, they will lose out to imports, since demand is rising, if more slowly than last year.
Sheesh, you're right. I'm just listening to a report about importing gasoline right now. I had no idea.
Jabba
And in fact refiners have been investing in refining capacity in the last couple of years.
They are? I thought they were maxed out?
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Jabbadabbado
Title: Senate Floor Moderator
Registered:
Mar '99
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Date Posted:
5/24/07 12:26pm
Subject:
RE: Oil Dependency, etc.
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There are a few different issues. One is total refinery capacity, which has grown since the mid-1990s through expansion of existing facilities (even though it is completely true that no new U.S. refineries have been built in ages) but not fast enough to meet current demand. The other is refinery utilization, which is having problems right now, because tight markets have encouraged companies to defer maintenance to the point where things like devastating fires and explosions are occurring more frequently. BP in particular is in a world of hurt over maintenance problems.
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ShaneP
Registered:
Mar '01
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Date Posted:
5/24/07 2:28pm
Subject:
RE: Oil Dependency, etc.
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BP in particular is in a world of hurt over maintenance problems.
You're talking about the leak recently that forced them to cut back hundreds of thousands of oil right? Amazing how run down some of these lines are. I had no idea it was ever like this. I just assumed the oil companies and refineries were all high-tech. Obviously not.
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Jabbadabbado
Title: Senate Floor Moderator
Registered:
Mar '99
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Date Posted:
5/24/07 2:58pm
Subject:
RE: Oil Dependency, etc.
- Date Edited:
5/24/07 3:01pm (1 edits total)
Edited By:
Jabbadabbado
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You may be thinking of the maintenance problems they're having in Alaska (oil production). I was talking about the Whiting, Indiana refinery fire and shutdown. There was also a shutdown at a BP Toledo, Ohio refinery. The Whiting fire happened back in March but took out a significant chunk of BP's refining capacity.
The maintenance problems across the U.S. are so huge it caused a shakeout at the very top of BP's leadership.
The refinery issue is global though. That would be my number one worry right now if I were chasing terrorists: a big hit on refining capacity somewhere in the world. The Saudis foiled one recent plot, but I'm willing to bet there are more in the works.
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Jabbadabbado
Title: Senate Floor Moderator
Registered:
Mar '99
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Date Posted:
10/24/07 4:52am
Subject:
RE: Oil Dependency, etc.
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Ah, oil.
Oil (WTI) touched $90 a barrel last week before falling back to about $85.
Yesterday the German Energy Watch Group released a report stating that peak oil occurred in 2006. Peak oil followers have been watching this 2006 "peak" in production, but few people have been willing to declare it "THE PEAK" in oil production.
The new report, building on a fairly careful analysis, takes the plunge, further calculating that oil production will drop dramatically by 2030, a date by which other analysts like CERA and IEA suggest oil production will be up to 115 million barrels a day or more.
The conclusion of the report:
The major result from this analysis is that world oil production has peaked in 2006. Production will start to decline at a rate of several percent per year. By 2020, and even more by 2030, global oil supply will be dramatically lower. This will create a supply gap which can hardly be closed by growing contributions from other fossil, nuclear or alternative energy sources in this time frame. The world is at the beginning of a structural change of its economic system. This change will be triggered by declining fossil fuel supplies and will influence almost all aspects of our daily life.
Climate change will also force humankind to change energy consumption patterns by reducing significantly the burning of fossil fuels. Global warming is a very serious problem. However, the focus of this paper is on the aspects of resource depletion as these are much less transparent to the public.
The now beginning transition period probably has its own rules which are valid only during this phase. Things might happen which we never experienced before and which we may never experience again once this transition period has ended. Our way of dealing with energy issues probably will have to change fundamentally.
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Darth Mischievous
Registered:
Oct '99
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Date Posted:
12/9/07 12:06am
Subject:
RE: Oil Dependency, etc.
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On History Channel last night, I saw a program on 'Peak Oil' on the Mega Disasters program.
It was an ominous portrayal of our possible future when plentiful and cheap oil will be history.
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Jabbadabbado
Title: Senate Floor Moderator
Registered:
Mar '99
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Date Posted:
12/9/07 7:13am
Subject:
RE: Oil Dependency, etc.
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It was surprisingly well done. Not nearly as sensationalistic as I'd expected. Also, it's nice to see the topic being introduced to a larger public.
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Espaldapalabras
Registered:
Aug '05
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Date Posted:
12/28/07 1:47am
Subject:
RE: Oil Dependency, etc.
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I guess it didn't exactly have to do with oil dependency, but I just got finished reading Rigged. I guess my overall feeling for the book would be just a realization of how mediocre my own life is compared to this guy. It also made me rethink trying to get an MBA.
Anyways it offers a unique view of the oil market and Dubai. Of course I think we all have become much more aware of Dubai after they tried to buy US ports, and the look at the place he gives makes it pretty clear that it was just ignorance of the place that fueled most of the controversy.
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Obi-Zahn Kenobi
Registered:
Aug '99
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Date Posted:
12/28/07 2:30am
Subject:
RE: Oil Dependency, etc.
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Jabbadabbado posted:
It was surprisingly well done. Not nearly as sensationalistic as I'd expected. Also, it's nice to see the topic being introduced to a larger public.
Larger than the conspiracy theorist crowd?
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Jabbadabbado
Title: Senate Floor Moderator
Registered:
Mar '99
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Date Posted:
12/31/07 6:52pm
Subject:
RE: Oil Dependency, etc.
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Peak oil isn't a conspiracy theory. It doesn't posit a cabal of the highly influential scheming to end the oil age.
As I've said before, peak oil is a secular doomsday cult.
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Darth-Ghost
Registered:
Oct '03
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Date Posted:
1/2 9:49am
Subject:
RE: Oil Dependency, etc.
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We have hit $100/barrel of oil, and OPEC admitting they will not be able to meet demand in less than 20 years.
Oil prices soared to $100 a barrel Wednesday for the first time ever, reaching that milestone amid an unshakeable view that global demand for oil and petroleum products will continue to outstrip supplies.
Surging economies in China and India fed by oil and gasoline have sent prices soaring over the past year, while tensions in oil producing nations like Nigeria and Iran have increasingly made investors nervous and invited speculators to drive prices even higher.
Violence in Nigeria helped give crude the final push over $100.
Light, sweet crude for January delivery rose $4.02 to $100 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange before slipping back, according to Brenda Guzman, a Nymex spokeswoman.
Word that several Mexican oil export ports were closed due to rough weather added to the gains.
In Nigeria, bands of armed men invaded Port Harcourt, the center of the oil industry Tuesday, attacking two police stations and raiding the lobby of a major hotel. Four policemen, three civilians and six attackers were killed. The Niger Delta Vigilante Movement claimed responsibility for the attack.
"Although the violence has not impacted oil flow out of the country, it has reignited supply concerns as militant attacks have reduced Nigeria's crude output by roughly 20 percent since 2006," said John Gerdes, an analyst at SunTrust Robinson Humphrey in a research note. Nigeria is Africa's largest oil producer.
Separately, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said its member nations may not be able to meet demand as early as 2024, though OPEC also said that deadline could slide for decades if members increase production more quickly.
Still, the warning gave investors pause, said Amanda Kurzendoerfer, an analyst at Summit Energy Services Inc. in Louisville, Ky.
"They're talking about, in 20 years, not being able to meet demand," Kurzendoerfer said.
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Jabbadabbado
Title: Senate Floor Moderator
Registered:
Mar '99
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Date Posted:
1/2 10:22am
Subject:
RE: Oil Dependency, etc.
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This happens every day: journalists cast about for reasons to explain the upsurge in the price of oil. Today it's terrorists, tomorrow it's the weather, the next day it's OPEC deciding not to raise production quotas, then a leaky pipeline, then a refinery outage, then the weak dollar, and on and on.
But what's really happening is a fundamental shift in the supply/demand balance.
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dizfactor
Registered:
Aug '02
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Date Posted:
1/2 9:03pm
Subject:
RE: Oil Dependency, etc.
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Espaldapalabras posted:
I guess it didn't exactly have to do with oil dependency, but I just got finished reading Rigged. I guess my overall feeling for the book would be just a realization of how mediocre my own life is compared to this guy.
Yeah, you didn't even go to high school with him. Imagine how I feel  .
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