Author Topic: Iran, Iraq, the Middle East, and America's Role in the World
Mr44 
Registered: May '02
Date Posted: 9/19/07 10:53am Subject: RE: Iran, Iraq, the Middle East, and America's Role in the World
Hey Mr. 44, when are you going to admit you backed the wrong horse?

I guess it depends on which horse you're referring to.

Do you mean Bush? The War? Sea Biscuit?

 

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Gonk 
Registered: Jul '98
6234_GNK droid
Date Posted: 9/19/07 10:59am Subject: RE: Iran, Iraq, the Middle East, and America's Role in the World
Well ok, if OWM's comments are fine with you and you're actually willing talking about it, why not all three?

Especially that piece of trash, Biscuit.

 

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Mr44 
Registered: May '02
Date Posted: 9/19/07 11:40am Subject: RE: Iran, Iraq, the Middle East, and America's Role in the World
That in itself would require revisiting 5 years worth of forum debate. However, in a nutshell:

1)I don't think Bush has been any better or any worse than any other President, with the same ups and downs.

2)I think that 99% of the collective perception is overblown, which results in debate about #1.

3)You pretty much summed up my position on Iraq in a reference during our sanctions debate. You indicated that Clinton had no choice but to continue the sanctions due to the situation at the time. This same overriding force also applied to Bush in 2003. As much as I dinged it a couple of days ago, all the reasons that were spelled out by The Economist held true.

That doesn't mean that things should continue on status quo now either. It doesn't make sense to follow 10 years of useless status quo under the sanctions and substitute another 10 years of useless status quo with what we have. But that's why the focus should be on alternatives, not political posturing.

3)Sea Biscuit, there's just no excuse for. He had his heyday, but his memory was tarnished when Tobey Maguire was cast in his movie.

Of course, all of the above is just a single post which has to cover a broad topic...

 

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Gonk 
Registered: Jul '98
6234_GNK droid
Date Posted: 9/19/07 6:59pm Subject: RE: Iran, Iraq, the Middle East, and America's Role in the World
That in itself would require revisiting 5 years worth of forum debate. However, in a nutshell:

1)I don't think Bush has been any better or any worse than any other President, with the same ups and downs.


Ok, I've heard this a number of times and it's something that for me has lost more and more persuasion as time went on. First of all it's false in a literal sense because no President since Nixon has had these same ups and downs since one of those includes an active war with active combat lasting more than a month.

And then there's 9/11. I don't see any ups or downs like THAT one.

There's also his approval ratings. There's been better and worse, yeah -- but this bad for this long? I dunno, has anyone else endured that long a stretch down there?

The other reason is that while there's something to be said for not jumping to conclusions, there's a big gaping hole in the fact that what if you WERE confronted with a leader like Louis XVI? How would you know? What would be the litmus test and how bad would it have to get? It's quite apparent by the history that Louis XVI was a complete failure as a leader, but I don't see how you could differentiate someone like him and Bush all that much until the power was actually stripped from his hands.

It may be that you've heard these claims of Bush's ineptitude so long you've tuned them out. Sometimes I think that -- often as a group of people in general but also you specifically at times -- and say "well maybe if we'd only phrased the argument this way or if this had been said by a public figure instead of that".

But then I realize: if I'm not mistaken, you never really seemed to take them seriously. As well as many others, many of whom no longer post here. Back in the day you didn't even encounter them in and around 9/11. Not for about a year after it. And then there was the first big rush of anti-war feeling until it was declared, and you didn't seem to consider Bush was any better or any worse then (if anything, perhaps better than other Presidents). And then it all quieted down a bit and gradually bit by bit came back more and more ferociously. And you still never seemed to seriously consider it. I remember Richard Clarke testifying before Congress and... I don't remember quite what you ended up saying about him, but it was something about him being an opportunist or something along those lines.

And maybe that wouldn't bother me if you came back once in a while and said "I hate that Richard Clarke, what a phoney!", and actually seemed to follow him afterwards. Buuuut... Richard Clarke spoke his and then went away. Sure, he wrote a book -- cripes, everyone writes a book -- but then he went away and never came back.

I mean there's been so many figures now that have stood up, said their piece and left the stage. The motive of them all being out to make a little cash is starting to wear a bit thin. I tend to think of myself as one big heaping cynic, but even I know not all of these people can be out to make money. It's just not on: it would mean each of them are too alike to one another. Richard Clarke ain't Joe Wilson. Joe Wilson ain't Anthony Zinni. And none of these guys are O'Niel -- and apparently just now to a more limited degree, Alan Greenspan.


You've listed the scandals of other Presidents but -- man, I was alive at some of those times and I don't see the resemblance and it getting this hot.


2)I think that 99% of the collective perception is overblown, which results in debate about #1.

Yeah, that number is WAY too high. Sure, there must be some things that are getting overblown. But you watch Michael Ware and listen to one of his reports. And if you listen to that and you still say things are 99% overblown... I'm sorry, but now people are gonna stop listening to you. We can't keep going around in circles for years. It can't be 99% overblown for 3 or so years straight. For those that believe it to be true, no 'liberal media conspiracy' -- which does not and never did exist, BTW -- can be good enough to fake that. Nobody's gonna sell me on something that massive getting pulled off, and Nixon's administration falling apart. One guy's that good. Two guys are maybe that good. Three? Four? Five? I don't buy it. Hundreds? Get REAL.

There's too many people crying foul who don't know one another. Where there's smoke, there's fire, and there's way too much smoke. There's too many conspirators, too many liars, too much oversight not working. It doesn't add up.

3)You pretty much summed up my position on Iraq in a reference during our sanctions debate. You indicated that Clinton had no choice but to continue the sanctions due to the situation at the time. This same overriding force also applied to Bush in 2003. As much as I dinged it a couple of days ago, all the reasons that were spelled out by The Economist held true.

What overriding force? To continue the sanctions? I saw overriding force on Bush in 2003, but none of it pertained to Iraq. Whatever pressures he had concerning Iraq were pretty much the same as under Clinton. Sure, there'd been many more years of sanctions, but what was the alternative? Let Saddam walk... or this.

That doesn't mean that things should continue on status quo now either. It doesn't make sense to follow 10 years of useless status quo under the sanctions and substitute another 10 years of useless status quo with what we have. But that's why the focus should be on alternatives, not political posturing.

Well now we have an just as -- no, actually, a much more -- uncomfortable with no real alternatives. What... leave, stay indefinately (your status quo scenario), soft/hard partition and I think that's it. If you stay, you're just waiting on the IRaqis and more and more your army suffers and won't be able to cope with other necessary areas in the world.

3)Sea Biscuit, there's just no excuse for. He had his heyday, but his memory was tarnished when Tobey Maguire was cast in his movie.

Of course, all of the above is just a single post which has to cover a broad topic...


Damn you biscuit! Damn you to hell!

 

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Jediflyer 
Registered: Dec '01
6475_Corran Horn
Date Posted: 9/19/07 8:00pm Subject: RE: Iran, Iraq, the Middle East, and America's Role in the World
You know, for being a supposedly liberal media, how come I never hear the words "filibuster" or Republican obstruction on these latest votes in the senate. Instead only vague references to the "Senate blocking a bill" or "falling short on a procedural vote" make it into the reports where 56 Senators voted for the Webb ammendment with only 44 against.



 

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Jabbadabbado 
Registered: Mar '99
7388_Throne Room
Date Posted: 9/20/07 5:30am Subject: RE: Iran, Iraq, the Middle East, and America's Role in the World
The democrats have a mere whiff of majority. That makes all the difference. Lieberman as predicted has placed himself in a very important role relative to blocking non Republican initiatives aimed at the war. Other than that, I think there's a democratic strategy in place to only pretend to push efforts to change the course of the war. No one in Congress really wants to share ownership of Iraq with the president.

There is a strategy of introducing initiatives that are doomed to failure. No other congressional strategy makes sense in advance of presidential elections.

 

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Gonk 
Registered: Jul '98
6234_GNK droid
Date Posted: 9/20/07 6:10am Subject: RE: Iran, Iraq, the Middle East, and America's Role in the World
Where's 44's response go? I came in to finally begin a response to it, and it's gone.

 

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Jabbadabbado 
Registered: Mar '99
7388_Throne Room
Date Posted: 9/20/07 7:06am Subject: RE: Iran, Iraq, the Middle East, and America's Role in the World
I didn't see the response, but I'm very curious about "99% overblown," even taking into account permissible levels of hyperbole.

 

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Alpha-Red 
Registered: Apr '04
18200_TIE Fighter
Date Posted: 9/20/07 12:04pm Subject: RE: Iran, Iraq, the Middle East, and America's Role in the World
Mr44 posted:
1)I don't think Bush has been any better or any worse than any other President, with the same ups and downs.


Maybe this is just me, but I feel that if there's anything Bush has done horribly, it's that he constantly seems to overplay his hand. For example, a lot of his rhetoric about regime change is pretty unwarranted. It's essentially a euphemism, and a pretty bad one at that, for removing whoever we don't like. Of course there are ways for dealing with countries like Iraq, but going straight to military force is hardly one of them. We could have taken the time to isolate Saddam's regime diplomatically on the basis that it poses a security risk, or even persuade them to back us in a military solution should it come to that. Such an approach could have achieved our aims and we could have still maintained our credibility with the rest of the world.

But now that we've already thrown away that credibility, we no longer have the means to reign in runaway regimes like Iran and North Korea. It's a pretty sad state of affairs if people have to choose between us and them as to which is the lesser evil. But even one-time extreme actions don't require an extreme demeanor, and all this could have been mitigated if our president had simply attached some words of moderation to the very same actions.

 

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Lowbacca_1977 
Title: Senate Moderator
Registered: Jun '06
Date Posted: 9/20/07 12:13pm Subject: RE: Iran, Iraq, the Middle East, and America's Role in the World
Alpha-Red posted:
Mr44 posted:
1)I don't think Bush has been any better or any worse than any other President, with the same ups and downs.
Maybe this is just me, but I feel that if there's anything Bush has done horribly, it's that he constantly seems to overplay his hand. For example, a lot of his rhetoric about regime change is pretty unwarranted. It's essentially a euphemism, and a pretty bad one at that, for removing whoever we don't like. Of course there are ways for dealing with countries like Iraq, but going straight to military force is hardly one of them. We could have taken the time to isolate Saddam's regime diplomatically on the basis that it poses a security risk, or even persuade them to back us in a military solution should it come to that. Such an approach could have achieved our aims and we could have still maintained our credibility with the rest of the world.

You're right. Perhaps something like imposing sanctions until they complied with UN weapons inspections.

 

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Mr44 
Registered: May '02
Date Posted: 9/20/07 12:24pm Subject: RE: Iran, Iraq, the Middle East, and America's Role in the World
You may be on to something there Lowie. Imagine if we also took those sanctions, and added in daily patrols of combat aircraft over Iraq.

I wonder why it was never tried?

 

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Alpha-Red 
Registered: Apr '04
18200_TIE Fighter
Date Posted: 9/22/07 4:04am Subject: RE: Iran, Iraq, the Middle East, and America's Role in the World
No my point is that even if we decided to turn up the heat on Iraq we didn't need to make like McCarthy and say all that crap about how evil they were or what sort of new "intelligence" we had on their weapons programs. All we needed was to calmly state that Saddam presented a possible security risk and that it may be time to crack down on him. If we chose to invade (which we did) we didn't have to act like fanatics about it. What I'm saying is that if one man's words resulted in the spawning of an additional 2,000 terrorists that we otherwise wouldn't have had to face, then maybe he shouldn't have said them.

 

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Mr44 
Registered: May '02
Date Posted: 9/22/07 11:25am Subject: RE: Iran, Iraq, the Middle East, and America's Role in the World
Perhaps, but I think you need to re-evaluate the overall timing expressed within your post.

Saddam presented a possible security risk? Maybe it was time to crack down on him?

Let's review what the previous President said back on Dec, 1998:

Earlier today, I ordered America's armed forces to strike military and security targets in Iraq. Their purpose is to protect the national interest of the United States, and indeed the interests of people throughout the Middle East and around the world. Saddam Hussein must not be allowed to threaten his neighbors or the world with nuclear arms, poison gas or biological weapons.

The Iraqi leader was given a final warning six weeks ago, when Baghdad promised to cooperate with U.N. inspectors at the last minute just as U.S. warplanes were headed its way. Along with Prime Minister Blair of Great Britain, I made it equally clear that if Saddam failed to cooperate fully we would be prepared to act without delay, diplomacy or warning...


TRANSCRIPT

This speech was made in response to the Nov, 1998 incident when US warplanes were also poised to bomb Iraq, but were then recalled.

Let's see what reason was given back then?

"In short, the inspectors are saying that even if they could stay in Iraq, their work would be a sham. Saddam's deception has defeated their effectiveness. Instead of the inspectors disarming Saddam, Saddam has disarmed the inspectors. This situation presents a clear and present danger to the stability of the Persian Gulf and the safety of people everywhere.

Realizing that in 1998, the US/UK had been enforcing such resolutions for 6 years, and after 1998 when the final warning was given, it would be another 5 years until Iraq was invaded, at what time would it be permissible to "start cracking down on" Iraq?

 

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Jabbadabbado 
Registered: Mar '99
7388_Throne Room
Date Posted: 9/23/07 8:32am Subject: RE: Iran, Iraq, the Middle East, and America's Role in the World
Mr44 posted:
99% of the collective perception is overblown.

I jokingly asked you for a response to this, Mr44. But I'd like to take an opportunity to give my own Mr44 response.

To paraphrase myself over the past few years, I've often posted something along these lines:


Jabbadabbado posted:
The invasion of Iraq was an aberration. A horrible mistake. It's economically unsustainable, a drain on American resources. It undermined American foreign policy credibility, destabilized the Middle East and incentivized the rest of the world to form a cohesive effort to balance America's position of geopolitical supremacy in the globe.


This is 99% overblown. Let me try to lay out the Mr44 position, which I think is basically on target, and ask your pardon 44 for pretending to speak in your voice. Here's why the Jabbadabbado stance on the war is a crock.


Mr44 posted:


The invasion of Iraq was not an aberration

If you know anything about U.S. history, the invasion of Iraq should not have come as a shock. The invasion of Iraq represents a typically U.S. approach to geopolitical challenges that has been consistent for at least 50 years. I challenge anyone to name a president since World War 2 who has not attempted "regime change" in some part of the world. Carter?

The invasion of Iraq is not economically unsustainable.

Even after we blew past a half trillion dollars in defense spending, even if the Iraq war itself costs $1 trillion before its over, it is not unsustainable. There is not a strong case for the Iraq war as a source of economic weakness. U.S. defense spending remains low as a percentage of GDP, relative to the historical trends of U.S. defense spending.

The invasion of Iraq has in almost no measurable way undermined the geopolitical influence of the U.S. or its position as the world's predominant geopolitical force.

The U.S. remains as predominant today as it did before the Iraq invasion. There is no evidence of a loss of geopolitical influence. The only hit the U.S. has taken is in foreign public opinion, but this has not really translated into anti-American foreign policy from foreign governments. Germany and France have even elected more pro-American governments. China and Russia have not united in an anti-U.S. block to oppose U.S. geopolitical supremacy. Historically, they are too mutually antagonistic for that to every become likely.

In conclusion, the U.S. is big enough, bad enough, and indispensable enough to the world geopolitical order that it can easily absorb Iraq, even if the invasion itself has not been successful, even if we conclude that it was a mistake. But the invasion cannot be considered a renegade action or out of character for the U.S. given its more than a half century of overt willingness to intervene almost everywhere against low to mid level totalitarian regimes where U.S. interests were at stake.


I hope I captured your thinking on this, 44. It's good stuff. In short, the invasion of Iraq has not harmed the U.S. It has been a tragedy for the Iraqi people to-date, and we can judge it on those merits, but I don't think we can talk about it anymore as something that was renegade or off the reservation or out of character for U.S. foreign policy.



 

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Mr44 
Registered: May '02
Date Posted: 9/23/07 12:51pm Subject: RE: Iran, Iraq, the Middle East, and America's Role in the World
Um, I'll say the answer is "C."

 

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