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Topic:
China and Taiwan for dummies.
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Master-Fett
Title: Games Trivia Host
Registered:
Sep '02
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Date Posted:
9/8/07 6:37pm
Subject:
China and Taiwan for dummies.
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I read an article today that if Taiwan decides to pursue joining the UN, China will invade. I know we have a longstanding promise to protect Taiwan, but that we're reluctant to piss China off. What else is there to this situation? Thats really all I know at the moment, but I am interested in it.
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Jansons_Funny_Twin
Registered:
Jul '02
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Date Posted:
9/8/07 7:36pm
Subject:
RE: China and Taiwan for dummies.
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I can't wait to hear what Ender_Sai has to say about this. He's the resident expert. Lousy Sinophile. 
Personally, I think that, like most everything, it's overblown. 1) I don't think Taiwan will ever really push things. They seem to have it pretty good. 2) Knowing full well how much the Chinese value saving face, I'm still not sure they'd invade. a) Not sure they have the sea/air-lift capacity, and b) not sure they'd want to take us on. 3) Despite promises, I'm not sure we'd really risk a war with China over Taiwain. Seriously, what purpose would it serve, other than to get a whole lot of people killed? Yes, standing up against aggression is a good thing, but I'm not sure how much we'd benefit (or how much we could benefit us by flat out telling China we won't stop them).
Still, the extent of my knowledge is reading doom and gloom stories with a healthy dosage of Tom Clancy. 
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Ender_Sai
Title: Manager Emeritus
Registered:
Feb '01
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Date Posted:
9/8/07 7:47pm
Subject:
RE: China and Taiwan for dummies.
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Man, people who don;t understand the Chinese ought be banned from commenting on it. That means you, journalists...
Taiwan and China are complicated states and you really need to understand how the Chinese think to really get your head around it. When you do that, it's still complex but you understand why.
Taiwan and China will end up reunified and probably under the HKSAR model. It's ap ity, because of what Taiwan has achieved, but that's politics for you.
In any event, Taiwan doesn't want full UN membership. Well, it claims it does, and at Chiang Kai-shek airport when you debark from a plane there's a giant sign saying UNFAIR and talking about it, but it mainly wants some observer status.
China is opposed to this due a very long standing cultural belief that what happens within one's borders stays there. It's a philosophy they have pursued in Sudan, largely because they feel this keeps prying eyes from China.
Seeing Taiwan as a province of the PRC gives them the "legitimacy" to make this claim, so they do.
If you talk to Chinese people, that is the regular people, most don't give a rat's ass either way. Chinese people don't see Taiwan as a country, Taiwanese people don't see Chinese as the enemy and both sides are far happier with the status quo than any change - either to independence or reunification.
To many, that's unpalpable - why live in this perpetual state of limbo?
Simple. Nobody loses face.
Cross straight relations have never been better since 1949, and any changes to that will be resisted by both sides. Even the antics of Chen Shui-bian, which have come closer to upsetting the balance than anything he predecessor Lee Deng-hui did, can really ruin this because there's just too much at stake.
Though, given that Taiwan is at best a de facto, rather than de jure, state I'd be hard pressed to see how they'd think they'd get UN member status...
E_S
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Mr44
Registered:
May '02
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Date Posted:
9/8/07 7:51pm
Subject:
RE: China and Taiwan for dummies.
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Well, unlike the Korean conflict of 50 years ago, the US wouldn't be committing ground troops against China. At the most, it would be US carrier battle groups/air forces selectively targeting assets on the mainland or protecting the sea lane between China and Taiwan.
I'm quite sure that everyone involved wouldn't get involved in such a conflict, so it's all diplomacy/saber rattling.
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Master-Fett
Title: Games Trivia Host
Registered:
Sep '02
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Date Posted:
9/8/07 8:01pm
Subject:
RE: China and Taiwan for dummies.
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Jansons_Funny_Twin posted:
3) Despite promises, I'm not sure we'd really risk a war with China over Taiwain. Seriously, what purpose would it serve, other than to get a whole lot of people killed?
The only thing that comes to mind is how we are viewed in the eyes of countries like Japan, Korea, and other Asian countries. Which while semi important, I don't see that as worth risking war with China.
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Ender_Sai
Title: Manager Emeritus
Registered:
Feb '01
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Date Posted:
9/8/07 8:08pm
Subject:
RE: China and Taiwan for dummies.
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Mr44 posted:
Well, unlike the Korean conflict of 50 years ago, the US wouldn't be committing ground troops against China. At the most, it would be US carrier battle groups/air forces selectively targeting assets on the mainland or protecting the sea lane between China and Taiwan.
I'm quite sure that everyone involved wouldn't get involved in such a conflict, so it's all diplomacy/saber rattling.
The US will not stake military assets in a conflict with China over Taiwan.
E_S
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Mr44
Registered:
May '02
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Date Posted:
9/8/07 8:27pm
Subject:
RE: China and Taiwan for dummies.
- Date Edited:
9/8/07 8:28pm (1 edits total)
Edited By:
Mr44
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Yep, that's what I posted:
Mr44 posted:
I'm quite sure that everyone involved wouldn't get involved in such a conflict, so it's all diplomacy/saber rattling.
A serious cascade of events would have to happen for this to even be initiated, but the focus of my reply was directed at the assertion made in the opening post which stated that the US has a pledge to protect Taiwan. It does, but it doesn't mean that the US is going to be invading China because of it.
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Darth_Guy
Registered:
Aug '02
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Date Posted:
9/8/07 9:06pm
Subject:
RE: China and Taiwan for dummies.
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Is there really much of chance that China would try to take Taiwan by force, anyway?
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Mr44
Registered:
May '02
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Date Posted:
9/8/07 9:09pm
Subject:
RE: China and Taiwan for dummies.
- Date Edited:
9/8/07 9:31pm (1 edits total)
Edited By:
Mr44
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I would seriously doubt it, as there is too much to loose that isn't related to Taiwan.
But there is the concept of "never say never."
I mean, and I'm sure E_S could go into more detail, but Hu Jintao is more outworldly hardline than Premier Wen. After all, it was Hu who signed into law China's official military stance against Taiwanese independence 2 or so years ago. But as we already know, that had more to do with Chinese honor than anything else. At the moment, China doesn't have the capability to transport an invading force off the mainland.
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Ender_Sai
Title: Manager Emeritus
Registered:
Feb '01
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Date Posted:
9/8/07 10:02pm
Subject:
RE: China and Taiwan for dummies.
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Darth_Guy posted:
Is there really much of chance that China would try to take Taiwan by force, anyway?
Not unless Chen Shui Bian does something particularly daft before next year. Dumber than usual, in any event.
E_S
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Darth Mischievous
Registered:
Oct '99
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Date Posted:
9/8/07 10:06pm
Subject:
RE: China and Taiwan for dummies.
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I can't see there being any public will whatsoever in the US to get involved if China does decide to intervene militarily in Taiwan.
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Ender_Sai
Title: Manager Emeritus
Registered:
Feb '01
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Date Posted:
9/8/07 10:07pm
Subject:
RE: China and Taiwan for dummies.
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It's as possible as man flying through sheer force of will DM.
As in, not.
E_S
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Darth Mischievous
Registered:
Oct '99
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Date Posted:
9/8/07 10:13pm
Subject:
RE: China and Taiwan for dummies.
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I certainly hope that your prediction proves correct, E_S.
Right now, I think pigs would fly out of Congress' rather large and bloated ass before it would allow President Bush to take such intervention in any other foreign entanglement at this time... even in the remote scenario that China were to intervene in Taiwan.
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Mr44
Registered:
May '02
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Date Posted:
9/8/07 10:27pm
Subject:
RE: China and Taiwan for dummies.
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Well, again, it depends on what such hypothetical force entails.
Having the US park a Carrier Strike Group or two in the East China Sea and launch cruise missiles against mainland ports and airfields wouldn't cause much of an uproar. I think the USS Kitty Hawk is still stationed in Yokosuka, Japan for this reason.
The goal of the US wouldn't be to invade China, but simply to keep it from crossing into Taiwan en masse.
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Peter Shoomaker
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Darth Mischievous
Registered:
Oct '99
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Date Posted:
9/8/07 10:33pm
Subject:
RE: China and Taiwan for dummies.
- Date Edited:
9/8/07 10:34pm (1 edits total)
Edited By:
Darth Mischievous
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Mr44 posted:
Having the US park a Carrier Strike Group or two in the East China Sea and launch cruise missiles against mainland ports and airfields wouldn't cause much of an uproar.
I understand your point, but I don't share your optimistic appraisal of that hypothetical situation.
Any strike by the US on Chinese mainland, to protect Taiwan or otherwise... well, I shudder to think of the ramifications of such a scenario....
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Jansons_Funny_Twin
Registered:
Jul '02
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Date Posted:
9/8/07 10:35pm
Subject:
RE: China and Taiwan for dummies.
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And if Bush said "We're only going as far as to keep the Chinese away from Taiwan", would anyone believe him? That's the trouble we're in today, some people will just not trust him. This would be complicated if China expanded any conflict elsewhere.
And you just know that there would be elements in America pushing for a war, and an expansion into mainland China, complete with "regime change" talk. What fun that would be!
Manual sigs, like myself, are vastly uncool.
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"you guys, you're so cute with your anal rape and man love" - lexu
For Khaz Modan!
"IGNORE ME!"
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