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Topic:
China and Taiwan for dummies.
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Mr44
Registered:
May '02
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Date Posted:
9/8/07 10:43pm
Subject:
RE: China and Taiwan for dummies.
- Date Edited:
9/8/07 10:47pm (1 edits total)
Edited By:
Mr44
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I don't know. It would depend of course. If China actually invaded Taiwan in order to quell its independence, then that would mean that the Chinese government has already run through the possible consequences.
It's important to point out that every President at least since JFK back in 1961 that I know of has pledged to defend Taiwan in such an example, and that has crossed through both parties and carried on throughout administrations. The US's idealism can't be completely dismissed here, and once one President pledges something, it takes a special importance for future Presidents.
I'm not saying that such involvement would lead to WWIII or anything of the sort, but the President, acting as CiC ,(and I mean any President, not a specific one) has up to 90 days to carry out such a pledge without Congress.
I can't see any calls for regime change though. It's not a case of since we invaded Iraq, every future US military plan from now until eternity has to involve regime change, even under the current administration.
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Espaldapalabras
Registered:
Aug '05
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Date Posted:
9/8/07 11:00pm
Subject:
RE: China and Taiwan for dummies.
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Well I suppose it depends on which theory of international relations you follow, but it is not in our national interest to defend Taiwan, and there is no moral imperative to do so.
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Mr44
Registered:
May '02
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Date Posted:
9/8/07 11:15pm
Subject:
RE: China and Taiwan for dummies.
- Date Edited:
9/8/07 11:23pm (1 edits total)
Edited By:
Mr44
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Well, "little" Taiwan accounted for 215 Billion dollars worth of exports last year, so there is certainly an economic interest.
Beyond that, the US uses Taiwan as an unofficial forward deployment base, even if the US isn't directly involved. This has admittedly become less important for the big picture in recent years, especially since the shift has been to Japan and/or Australia.
And one can't dismiss the basic connection to an island democracy (using "island" here in both the physical and moral sense) and the fact that every President for 50 years has pledged to defend Taiwan if it came to that.
As a point of curiosity, behind the US, France of all countries has supplied Taiwan with advanced interceptors which are designed to counter Chinese ground attack craft. So, ironically, in a war between Taiwan and China, it would be US and French technology being used side by side, even if neither country became directly involved.
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Espaldapalabras
Registered:
Aug '05
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Date Posted:
9/8/07 11:21pm
Subject:
RE: China and Taiwan for dummies.
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Of course we have a national interest in Taiwan, that isn't what I said. We have no national interest in defending them because our national interest in China far outweighs whatever interest we have in Taiwan. After Iraq I think we have lost our appetite in defending democracy. Perhaps there would be some sequence of events that would lead to the US to be involved in conflict against China, but Taiwan simply isn't worth it to us at this point. 50 or even 15 years ago it was.
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Mr44
Registered:
May '02
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Date Posted:
9/8/07 11:35pm
Subject:
RE: China and Taiwan for dummies.
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I just can't agree. If China, out of the blue, decided to up and invade Taiwan, I'd imagine a lot of assumptions would change.
Again, I can't see the conflict spilling over or becoming WWIII, but if the Chinese moved beyond the typical rhetoric and actually used military force against Taiwan, it would mean that they weighed the consequences of such an action and went ahead anyway.
If Egypt underwent a fundamental change and suddenly invaded Israel, you could bet that the US would provide Israel with direct assistance, even if the US didn't actually invade Egypt itself. The consequences of perception wouldn't matter with relation to the assistance that a direct ally needed.
Or set aside the complexities of the Middle East. If Russia suddenly invaded Poland, the US would most certainly provide Poland with assistance and risk the consequences with Russia. Poland has less of a national interest than Taiwan does.
(*note, I don't expect Egypt to invade Israel, or Russia to invade but the examples represents a concept tied to the US)
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Darth_Guy
Registered:
Aug '02
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Date Posted:
9/9/07 12:02am
Subject:
RE: China and Taiwan for dummies.
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Only a small part of Russia borders Poland. They'd have to invade Ukraine, the Baltic states, and/or Belarus first. 
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Lowbacca_1977
Title: Senate Moderator
Registered:
Jun '06
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Date Posted:
9/9/07 12:26am
Subject:
RE: China and Taiwan for dummies.
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"You started it"
"No I didn't"
"Yes you did, you invaded Poland"
End result, I don't think the U.S. would try to go up against China. In part because the U.S. won't go up against ANYONE right now given the political climate and the division between Congress and the White House.
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Ender_Sai
Title: Manager Emeritus
Registered:
Feb '01
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Date Posted:
9/9/07 1:54am
Subject:
RE: China and Taiwan for dummies.
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Guys
You're totally missing the important points.
The conflict is between China and Taiwan, so America is, at best, peripheral.
What's going to prompt China to attack is if Taiwan declares independence. With the value of cross-straight trade and the disapproval of Mr Chen's job (and the likelihood that Mr Ma of the KMT will replace him), it's unlikely at best.
Given that there's too much face to be lost, I can't see it happening. Nor could the Taiwanese I spoke to about it when I lived there.
E_S
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GrandAdmiralJello
Title:
Emperor
• EUC
• JCC
Registered:
Nov '00
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Date Posted:
9/9/07 8:37pm
Subject:
RE: China and Taiwan for dummies.
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Jansons_Funny_Twin posted:
And you just know that there would be elements in America pushing for a war, and an expansion into mainland China, complete with "regime change" talk. What fun that would be!
Manual sigs, like myself, are vastly uncool.
Utterly unlikely.
These same war hawks also enjoy trade with China. China is too useful to attack.
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Mr44
Registered:
May '02
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Date Posted:
9/9/07 9:03pm
Subject:
RE: China and Taiwan for dummies.
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Given that there's too much face to be lost, I can't see it happening. Nor could the Taiwanese I spoke to about it when I lived there.
That's absolutely correct. I just wouldn't characterize the US's role as peripheral.
I'd wager, that per capita, the US has more listening stations on Taiwan that anywhere else in the world. Also, the reason the US keeps a rapid reaction carrier group stationed in Japan isn't because of concerns in Iraq.
But all the invasion talk is hypothetical. A lot would have to fall into place before something would even happen. I just wouldn't downgrade how the US views Taiwan.
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Ender_Sai
Title: Manager Emeritus
Registered:
Feb '01
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Date Posted:
9/10/07 2:07am
Subject:
RE: China and Taiwan for dummies.
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Well sure, but the US is still going to be reacting to whatever Taipei and Beijing decide. What's of concern now is that if Chen feels, from recent comments made by John Negroponte that this ill advised referendum is ill advised, that Taiwan has nothing to lose and declares independence. The US ought say nothing publicly, least it be misread.
E_S
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Alpha-Red
Registered:
Apr '04
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Date Posted:
9/11/07 6:22pm
Subject:
RE: China and Taiwan for dummies.
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So what's the basis for China's claim to Taiwan? The Communists were pissed at the Nationalists and took over the mainland due to their opponent's incompetency. The latter retreated to Taiwan, and....I'm assuming they never signed a peace treaty or whatever? They're separate governments in that respect, and it doesn't look to me like there's good reason for China to continue threatening Taiwan. And especially if they get along so well, why even press the issue?
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Ender_Sai
Title: Manager Emeritus
Registered:
Feb '01
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Date Posted:
9/11/07 6:42pm
Subject:
RE: China and Taiwan for dummies.
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Um, Taiwan was part of China when the Communists siezed control in 1949?
E_S
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Ender_Sai
Title: Manager Emeritus
Registered:
Feb '01
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Date Posted:
9/11/07 9:00pm
Subject:
RE: China and Taiwan for dummies.
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http://usinfo.state.gov/xarchives/display.html?p=texttrans-english&y=2007&m=September&x=20070911173406eaifas0.198086&t=livefeeds/wf-latest.html&distid=ucs
Interesting and timely read; note please no mention of independence or China by name (just by BeiJing)
E_S
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Alpha-Red
Registered:
Apr '04
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Date Posted:
9/13/07 3:39am
Subject:
RE: China and Taiwan for dummies.
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So if they never siezed Taiwan, then doesn't that mean that they didn't sieze all of China, and that the little island that their former enemy is sitting on never belonged to them?
Also, since their takeover the PRC has become a legitimately recognized government to other nations because of its economic growth and value, right? If that's true then doesn't the same apply to Taiwan and that it should enjoy the same recognition?
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