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Topic:
The 2008 US Elections: Discussion, Opinion, Predictions
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Vaderize03
Title: Manager Emeritus
Registered:
Oct '99
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Date Posted:
11/13/07 6:23pm
Subject:
The 2008 US Elections: Discussion, Opinion, Predictions
- Date Edited:
7/6 5:44pm (1 edits total)
Edited By:
Lowbacca_1977
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Howdy folks,
In response to Ender's request that we lock down the old thread due to morbid obesity, I am here to perform a gastric bypass.
You all know the drill: it's going to be a bumpy year for the political process in the United States.
Who wins? Who loses? Who will give us the most enjoyable ride? President Hillary? Giuliani? Huckabee? McCain?
Post your thoughts, opinions, speculations, and let's all journey down this crazy path towards the first Tuesday next November together.
Peace,
V-03
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B-O-H-I-C-A !! (that was funny DM!)
"I'm what Willis was talking about"
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Obi-Zahn Kenobi
Registered:
Aug '99
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Date Posted:
11/13/07 6:34pm
Subject:
RE: The 2008 US Elections: Discussion, Opinion, Predictions
- Date Edited:
11/13/07 6:35pm (1 edits total)
Edited By:
Obi-Zahn Kenobi
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This is my gut:
Democrats: 75% Hillary, <15% Obama, <10% Edwards, >0% someone else.
Republicans: 35% Romney, 30% Huckabee, 25% Giuliani, 0% McCain, <1% Ron Paul, 10% someone else
If it is:
Hillary vs. Romney: Tight race, with Hillary pulling out slightly ahead
Hillary vs. Huckabee: Huckabee wins in a tight race
Hillary vs. Giuliani: Religious right forms third party which gets approximately 5% of the popular vote, giving Hillary the edge, but not a majority (like in '92)
Obama vs. Romney: Romney win with a decent margin.
Obama vs. Huckabee: Tighter than him vs. Romney, but still a decent win for the GOP
Obama vs. Giuliani: Obama gets raped in the general election
Note bene that this is not based on any reasoning whatsoever. That's just what the landscape "feels" like to me.
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War Monger/Caribou Barbie '08  o sanctissima deipara, salva nos!
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Blue_Jedi33
Registered:
Aug '03
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Date Posted:
11/13/07 6:36pm
Subject:
RE: The 2008 US Elections: Discussion, Opinion, Predictions
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A most interesting ticket was pondered the other day, utterly unique.
Paul / Palin
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Palin
In July 2007, Gov. Palin was heralded in the media as being the most popular governor in the United States, with an approval rating often in the 90s.
I think Hillary would get wiped out with that ticket.
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- John Stockwell, former CIA Case Officer,
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Obi-Zahn Kenobi
Registered:
Aug '99
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Date Posted:
11/13/07 6:41pm
Subject:
RE: The 2008 US Elections: Discussion, Opinion, Predictions
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Ron Paul is pro-homeschooling, anti-abortion, anti-gun control, anti-taxes, and I agree with him on many other issues. He's also a straight-talker and I enjoy having him in the debates as a wonderful contrast to the rest of the Republican candidates.
He's also bat**** insane. I'd vote for Hillary over them anyday. While I desperately want to see Roe v. Wade overturned, I'd rather that the country stay intact before that.
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War Monger/Caribou Barbie '08 o sanctissima deipara, salva nos!
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JMJacenSolo
Registered:
May '06
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Date Posted:
11/13/07 6:48pm
Subject:
RE: The 2008 US Elections: Discussion, Opinion, Predictions
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If Huckabee got the nomination what sort of strategy do you guys think the Dems would use in the general election? Is it possible they would try to turn his religious background against him or is that still too risky of a move in the year 2008?
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Obi-Zahn Kenobi
Registered:
Aug '99
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Date Posted:
11/13/07 6:51pm
Subject:
RE: The 2008 US Elections: Discussion, Opinion, Predictions
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I think that intelligent design will hurt him. They won't be able to attack him for pandering like they would Romney. I think that the worst thing about him is his politicoreligious tendencies. That has a possibility of costing him the election.
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JMJacenSolo
Registered:
May '06
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Date Posted:
11/13/07 6:56pm
Subject:
RE: The 2008 US Elections: Discussion, Opinion, Predictions
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Obi-Zahn Kenobi posted:
I think that intelligent design will hurt him.
That's one thing I don't understand about him. Whenever he's asked about evolution he says something to the effect of "I believe God was involved in the creation of life, I don't know how he did it exactly, we just don't know". Why doesn't he just forthrightly say he believes in evolution but that God guided the process. That pretty much covers all of the bases, politically.
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Darth Mischievous
Registered:
Oct '99
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Date Posted:
11/13/07 7:07pm
Subject:
RE: The 2008 US Elections: Discussion, Opinion, Predictions
- Date Edited:
11/13/07 7:22pm (3 edits total)
Edited By:
Darth Mischievous
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Huckabee's stature seems to be improving of late, and he could be a sleeper candidate... It would be a disaster for the GOP if they nominate him. He's a nice and likeable guy, but not subscribing certain validity to evolution?
Giuliani is basically ignoring Iowa and NH, expecting that the big State primaries will go for him and put him over the top on Super Tuesday (Feb 5th). He would have more than enough delegates to win if he takes it that day, versus the Iowa/NH results.
Hillary's campaign has been wounded a bit of late, and her poll numbers are dropping. Obama and Edwards are picking up a bit. Will it be enough? I doubt it, but anything is possible in the primaries. I wouldn't rule out suprises. Obama has the better shot at the slingshot effect than Edwards.
We're just about six weeks away now from the Iowa caucus.
Latest Iowa and New Hampshire polling reporting from RealClearPolitics:
CBS News/NY Times (11/02 - 11/12)
Iowa Caucus
Democratic
Clinton 25%
Edwards 23%
Obama 22%
Richardson 12%
Biden 4%
Republican
Romney 27%
Huckabee 21%
Giuliani 15%
Thompson 9%
McCain 4%
Paul 4%
New Hampshire Primary
Democratic
Clinton 37%
Obama 22%
Edwards 9%
Richardson 6%
Republican
Romney 34%
Giuliani 16%
McCain 16%
Paul 8%
Huckabee 6%
Thompson 5%
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JMJacenSolo
Registered:
May '06
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Date Posted:
11/13/07 7:22pm
Subject:
RE: The 2008 US Elections: Discussion, Opinion, Predictions
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Darth Mischievous posted:
Huckabee's stature seems to be improving of late, and he could be a sleeper candidate... It would be a disaster for the GOP if they nominate him. He's a nice and likeable guy, but not subscribing certain validity to evolution?
Not as big a disaster as the religious right siphoning off a third party.
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Darth Mischievous
Registered:
Oct '99
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Date Posted:
11/13/07 7:25pm
Subject:
RE: The 2008 US Elections: Discussion, Opinion, Predictions
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JMJacenSolo posted:
Not as big a disaster as the religious right siphoning off a third party.
True.
But, what if Bloomberg were to enter the race as well?
Imagine if both Bloomberg and another 'third-party' conservative jumps in.... A four way race between the GOP and Democratic nominee, an Independent Bloomberg and a Conservative third party candidate....
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KnightWriter
Title:
Administrator Emeritus
Registered:
Nov '01
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Date Posted:
11/13/07 7:25pm
Subject:
RE: The 2008 US Elections: Discussion, Opinion, Predictions
- Date Edited:
11/13/07 7:27pm (1 edits total)
Edited By:
KnightWriter
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Andrew Sullivan wrote an excellent piece in this month's Atlantic about Obama and what he means to the race (it's titled "Why Obama matters"). Obama does matter a great deal, and I think he was wise to take advantage of his opportunity now, at least from a self-interest viewpoint.
So long as Hillary or Obama are the nominees, they will win. Hillary would crush Guliani (particularly by embarrassing him in his own home state) and pretty much any other Republican contender. The only man out there who can compete with her as a campaigner is Romney, and I don't think he's going to be the nominee. Paul is going nowhere, despite what Paulites would like to believe. He'll fade, as John Anderson did in 1980. Huckabee is an unknown in much of the country, and though Clinton was likewise in 1992, these are different times, and if your name isn't Obama, Clinton, Guliani, Romney or McCain, you're not going anywhere except maybe on the ticket as a VP candidate.
Like her or hate her, Hillary Clinton has a formidable machine behind her, and the experience of multiple national campaigns, not to mention a burning drive to win. She is a ruthless politician, and while I don't think that's what we need in a president right now, it means a lot in terms of what she can do as a campaigner. She has the most popular president in decades at her side, a man who far outstrips even her as a campaigner and a politician, a man with a rolodex probably the size of your average metro phone book. Like a fast receiver in the open field, if she gets the nomination and gets into the clear, she will not lose. Bill won't let her, and even more importantly, she won't let herself lose. It'll be a take no prisoners campaign, and I think she'll humble whoever is in her path if she's the nominee. I think Obama would be better for the country as a whole, and Sullivan makes a lot of sense in his piece about him, but it seems much more likely that Hillary will win out in the end.
None of the Republicans have what it takes to be president. Guliani has never run a national campaign, and that will show if he's the nominee. September 11th, 2001 will become as much an albatross as it has been a boon for him, and I think he'll get what he justly deserves-- i.e. some karmic payback. Romney makes Kerry look rock-solid on the issues, and McCain's time has passed.
Like it or not, be ready for at least four more years of the Clintons in the White House. Chelsea Clinton will be first daughter again just under one year from now.
Having said all that, I think it's possible that Obama could make some substantial gains and challenge her for the nomination. If he gets the nomination, it'll be a considerably closer campaign, but one with the same ending. The Democrats will be back in the White House come January 20, 2009.
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"There's a special place in Hell for women who don't support other women."--Sarah Palin
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Obi-Zahn Kenobi
Registered:
Aug '99
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Date Posted:
11/13/07 7:27pm
Subject:
RE: The 2008 US Elections: Discussion, Opinion, Predictions
- Date Edited:
11/13/07 7:35pm (1 edits total)
Edited By:
Obi-Zahn Kenobi
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Any people willing to vote for Bloomberg would probably be pulled off of Giuliani, not Hillary. However, I don't think that they would do that. Also, I don't think many people would vote for Bloomberg over Hillary. Thus, you might have Hillary winning by a larger margin (unless you use butterfly ballots).
Josh posted:
Like her or hate her, Hillary Clinton has a formidable machine behind her, and the experience of multiple national campaigns, not to mention a burning drive to win. She is a ruthless politician, and while I don't think that's what we need in a president right now, it means a lot in terms of what she can do as a campaigner.
Very true.
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Darth Mischievous
Registered:
Oct '99
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Date Posted:
11/13/07 7:48pm
Subject:
RE: The 2008 US Elections: Discussion, Opinion, Predictions
- Date Edited:
11/13/07 7:49pm (1 edits total)
Edited By:
Darth Mischievous
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Explain this from Quinnipiac in 'blue State' Connecticut, KW. Or, here where Giuliani polls ahead of Clinton in New Jersey, a Democratic bastion. If Giuliani is the GOP nominee, if he picks off even a few 'blue States', Hillary cannot win.
I wonder if anyone can show me a nominee in history that has won a general election with as high negativity ratings as Hillary Clinton has, where basically half of the country says they won't vote for the candidate under any circumstances?
Yes, she has a significantly effective machine behind her (from her husband's machinations), and she is ruthless. However, she has been rarely put to the task with sincere scrutiny in the national debate until the other night... and she's not Bill Clinton, who is a master politician in his own regard.
She folded under the least amount of pressure in the recent Democratic debate, and it's taken down her poll numbers of late. She has faced a hostile debate on one occasion from her fellow Democrats, and she doesn't have Bill behind the curtain to prop her up. Dodd was able to demonstrate her weaknesses quite adequately. When she comes off the script, she's lost.
I'd like to see a 'Subway Series' between Clinton and Giuliani, and it would ba a ruthless exchange and interesting to watch.
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JMJacenSolo
Registered:
May '06
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Date Posted:
11/13/07 7:50pm
Subject:
RE: The 2008 US Elections: Discussion, Opinion, Predictions
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KnightWriter posted:
Like her or hate her, Hillary Clinton has a formidable machine behind her, and the experience of multiple national campaigns, not to mention a burning drive to win. She is a ruthless politician, and while I don't think that's what we need in a president right now, it means a lot in terms of what she can do as a campaigner.
Is that really attractive to the American electorate, though? Wasn't one of the biggest knocks against Gore in 2000 the perception that he would say and do anything to get elected? I think Hillary projects that impression twenty times as much as Gore did. And speaking of Gore, do you suppose we've passed the deadline for him to enter the race?
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Darth Mischievous
Registered:
Oct '99
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Date Posted:
11/13/07 7:54pm
Subject:
RE: The 2008 US Elections: Discussion, Opinion, Predictions
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JMJacenSolo posted:
Is that really attractive to the American electorate, though? Wasn't one of the biggest knocks against Gore in 2000 the perception that he would say and do anything to get elected? I think Hillary projects that impression twenty times as much as Gore did. And speaking of Gore, do you suppose we've passed the deadline for him to enter the race?
No, it's not attractive to the general electorate. You're correct that was one of Gore's problems as well. I think if he would have been more genuine, he would have won.
She is immensely ambitious, and the perception is out there that she will stick her finger to the wind to say anything to gain power. Obama doesn't give that impression off, and he comes across as much more sincere.
Gore's not getting in. He's enjoying his position in the limelight internationally too much now.
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KnightWriter
Title:
Administrator Emeritus
Registered:
Nov '01
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Date Posted:
11/13/07 7:58pm
Subject:
RE: The 2008 US Elections: Discussion, Opinion, Predictions
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Explain this from Quinnipiacthen in 'blue State' Connecticut, KW. Or, here where Giuliani polls ahead of Clinton in New Jersey, a Democratic bastion. If Giuliani is the GOP nominee, if he picks off even a few 'blue States', Hillary cannot win.
I don't really care what the polls say (at least right now). I'm telling you that when it comes time to vote, Clinton will absolutely embarrass Guliani in New York, New Jersey and other blue states. Mark my words. All this if she's the nominee, of course.
Yes, she has a significantly effective machine behind her (from her husband's machinations), and she is ruthless. However, she has been rarely put to the task with sincere scrutiny in the national debate until the other night... and she's not Bill Clinton, who is a master politician in his own regard.
Garbage. She's been under constant, micro-lens scrutinity for close to two decades now. There's a reason she's so calculating, and it has a bit to do with this scrutinty. Don't demand spontaneity and then bash a candidate for being just that (not that you have, just speaking generally).
I wonder if anyone can show me a nominee in history that has won a general election with as high negativity ratings as Hillary Clinton has, where basically half of the country says they won't vote for the candidate under any circumstances?
Why, we have to go aeons back in time, all the way to... 2004. That musty, misty point in history gave us George W. Bush, who won despite strong "Anybody but Bush" sentiment around the country, or at least in blue states. Further back, we have Richard Nixon, who won in 1968 despite being about as likeable a person as Hillary.
I'd like to see a 'Subway Series' between Clinton and Giuliani, and it would ba a ruthless exchange and interesting to watch.
Like Sullivan, I don't want to see that. However, if it came to that, be assured that Hillary would win, and decisively so.
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