Author Topic: The 2008 US Elections: Discussion, Opinion, Predictions
KnightWriter 
Title:
Administrator Emeritus

Registered: Nov '01
39907_Obi-Wan Kenobi
Date Posted: 5/13/08 8:42pm Subject: RE: The 2008 US Elections: Discussion, Opinion, Predictions
Far be it for me to say so, but I really don't care what the folks there think about Obama just yet. They can't vote, and have no say in the presidency. I care about voters in this country that have access to accurate information, but go on believing that Obama is Muslim anyway.

 

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darthdrago 
Registered: Dec '03
14017_Mask of Doom
Date Posted: 5/13/08 9:47pm Subject: RE: The 2008 US Elections: Discussion, Opinion, Predictions

Kimball posted:
He would then reply "¡Yo tambien!"

Can't believe you missed that, KK. grin

 

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Kimball_Kinnison 
Registered: Oct '01
6249_Veers
Date Posted: 5/14/08 2:36am Subject: RE: The 2008 US Elections: Discussion, Opinion, Predictions
darthdrago posted:

Kimball posted:
He would then reply "¡Yo tambien!"

Can't believe you missed that, KK. grin

Hey, I just got off of about 12 hours of flying and sitting around airports, and didn't feel up to looking up the codes for it. Notice that I also missed the accent over the e in "también" as well.

I'm sure you'll get over it someday.

Kimball Kinnison

 

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LtNOWIS 
Registered: May '05
16494_Clone Assault
Date Posted: 5/14/08 3:04am Subject: RE: The 2008 US Elections: Discussion, Opinion, Predictions - Date Edited: 5/14/08 3:24am (1 edits total) Edited By: LtNOWIS
Gonk posted:

I can respect the notion of "what you state is in the theoretical" -- Japan was not close to California, nor Germany to North Carolina. But we should not hinge our long-term approach to foreign policy on mere chance. If one approach to foreign policy is more benficial than another such as negotiating from a position of strength and avoiding one of weakness, it should apply just as well to France as to America. Or Germany or Japan or Iraq or Brazil.


Well, we can't dictate their foreign policies. We can only choose our own. Sometimes, stuff happens that we can't control, like Communists coming into power in Granada. So when we're strong enough, we can force change. And, as a big, prosperous nation, we have the inherent ability to be much stronger than most nations. So it works out pretty well for us, if we play it right.

Gonk posted:

If America can rely on this sort of thinking, it is not by the superiority of the method that it succeeds, but the luck of the position of the Oceans. And that luck is ultimately a crutch.


Are we lucky to have these nice big oceans? Sure. But we're also lucky to live on a planet with a magnetic field to shield us from harmful rays. And in a universe where gravity exists. We're talking unchangeable facts of life here.

Gonk posted:

No, and that's precisely my point -- the latter one, anyway. In 1918 things were still up in the air but ultimately the foreign policy persued was an extension of the thinking prior to 1914, largely led by the French. That refused to acknowlege German pre-eminent power had usurped thier position on the continent. They had about 20 million more people. They had superior resources. And the Germans for thier part weren't excactly making grand overtures of peace themselves.

But both sides were playing exactly the rules you've been setting out to thier own interests. Trying to dictate terms to the other, to manuever into a position of strength, each one assuming that political failure on thier part meant unacceptable consequences. It was clearly not going to end well, and as technology has advanced, there needs to be a better approach to foreign policy than the world of 1914.

We will never be as weak as the French, so we will never be conquered like they were. Which isn't to say we should do what France did at Versailles. If France had been competent, than they would not have been conquered so readily by the Germans. Which is not to say that I would generally recommend the actions they took at Versailles.

Gonk posted:

As for crushing the Axis, I'm afraid I cannot agree with you on that as it's effectiveness as an example. By that argument Saddam would not have invaded Kuwait. Or North Korea would not have invaded South Korea. Over time, people are not going to acknowledge what happened to the Axis; they will simply conclude that they will be smarter. In fact, they might be emboldened by the fact that it was a war that some could arge that they very nearly won. Again, we can't assume people are going to read past events the way we would like them to read. Whether it's because they're stupid, wise, brave or cowardly is not the point. The point is that -- they don't. For every human that sees that big stick they're threatened with and is silent, another will step up and think they can grab it for themselves.


Well, we need to be prepared to beat them down in that case. Anyways, the Korean War and the invasion of Kuwait were much less ambitious and blatantly expansionistic than Germany's invasion of Poland and Czechoslovakia. But yeah, my example idea was not necessarily great.

Gonk posted:

Again, it depends on the point of view. If they had chosen to go another route, would the state still be divided? Had Ho Chi Minh waited out DuGaulle, would the French of today really try to to hold on to it? Highly, highly doubtful. Millions arguably died for a reality that they could possibly have gotten without bloodshed by waiting until 1965 or so when it was clear to the French and British that colonialism was dead.

So Vietnam is really a good example on all sides of what I'm talking about: millions died for the sake of America not understanding what the Vietnamese wanted, for the Vietnamese not understanding America and other ways of dealing with the French, and the French not understanding the painfully obvious.


That is a very fair point. But, they couldn't have known colonialism was going to die back in the early 50s. And, a lot of what caused decolonization was armed conflict making it undesirable to maintain the colony, like with Portugal. The Vietnamese can't be blamed for wanting the French out immediately, not in an undefined future. By fighting the war, they helped to kill colonialism. Regardless, war where you lose millions of people is not ideal.

Gonk posted:

It can be. But clearly, there are other ways to go about it. And again, as technology ramps up and proliferation becomes a greater and greater reality, war is not going to be something that can be effectively relied upon for results as we run into more and more scenarios of -- if not full-on MAD, then onesided MAD versus localized metropolitain obliteration.


I can still count the number of nuclear powers on my fingers. Those countries, we won't attack.

Gonk posted:

Right, well clearly they had to fight back if they were to keep things going. But have things really changed for them? More importantly have things changed for the Arabs who also adhered to similar concepts of using force? And if they had changed, it would only have been through the deaths of millions.


In some ways, things have changed a lot for Israel. Since '48, certainly. And the Arabs could've destroyed Israel if they really committed to it.

Gonk posted:

And so again -- there's gotta be a better way to do it.


Most times, yes. I can also count a lot of failures of diplomacy, of rogue or unjust states that fly in the face of international politics; but I wouldn't recommend invading them either. In the end, it's generally about doing what's likely to be effective. And I maintain that military force is often the way to go.

And I should've remembered Grenada and the Falklands conflict. They were also decisive.

Edited to include the top of the post. (Gonk side discussion)

Jabbadabbado posted:
Noting Bush's monumental incompetence in the face of pressing foreign policy concerns, his gross negligence in handling a series of unprecedented domestic catastrophes coupled with the unchecked expansion of federal spending under the Republican-led congress has brought serious, lasting harm to our nation, yet 60% of republicans continue to cheer him on.

Luckily, 40% have seen reason, enough to make sure Obama gets elected in November. Period. At the end of the day, people can compare Obama's association with reverend Wright with the criminal invasion of Iraq and the Stalinist Patriot Act and the negligence in the federal response to Katrina and recognize their relative significance. And they will make those comparisons.

Calling the Patriot Act "Stalinist" is gross hyperbole. And our domestic "catastrophes" are not unprecedented.

Incidentally, there were roughly a dozen hurricanes deadlier than Katrina. In the Atlantic ocean alone.

And, the legality of the US invasion of Iraq is fairly insignificant to me, in comparison with its results. Regardless, it's ancient history for me.

[quote=Obi-Wan McCartney]DM, the only thing that the conservative base wants less than an Obama presidency is a McCain presidency. Why do you think Ron Paul is still getting a sizeable chunk of the vote? Nearly a third of the voters in some recent states want Ron Paul instead of McCain?[/quote]
I question these numbers. In fact, I'm going to outright reject them. In West Virginia, McCain got 76%, Huckabee got 10%, and Paul got 5%. He got 16% of the vote in Pennsylvania, 7% in North Carolina, and 8% in Indianna, and 4% in Mississippi. Only in Pennsylvania did he beat Huckabee. And I just listed every primary since March, which is everything that qualifies as recent. Nowhere did he approach a third of the vote.

That said, dislike of the incumbent party is still a huge hurdle for McCain, and nothing can change that.

[quote=Lowbacca_1977]Just as an interesting note.... a site that's keeping track of how Obama and Clinton would do against McCain based on polling data.
Obama vs McCain
Clinton vs McCain[/quote]
Man, I remember that site. Good times, back in '04. At least, until the election, when my guy lost.

Incidentally, my endorsement of McCain is probably not a good thing. I've had opinions in 3 presidential races, 1 Senate race, and 1 gubernatorial campaign. And my guys have always lost. Although I wasn't able to vote yet, so maybe that will change things.

As for Huckabee, he still brings Christians to McCain the way few others can, and he still scares some people very much. Him being with McCain might draw more people than it'd deter, but it also might polarize him even more.

I still think the best bet for McCain would be for Huckabee to work the church tour hard, guest sermoning everywhere he can, and so forth. He'd benefit from the limelight, and McCain could help him out in turn in the future. And Huckabee I believe is a man of conscience, so he'd want to be a part of overturning Roe vs. Wade even if it didn't directly benefit him. That course of action would bring conservative Christians to the polls, but it wouldn't spark secular fears in the same way. And there are probably more qualified VPs.

The right wing always brings up Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, but he needs to develop his career a bit more first. Although a failed VP run wouldn't necessarily hurt the guy.

I dunno, I'm open to whoever on this issue.

 

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DeathStar1977 
Registered: Jan '03
7850_Luke Skywalker
Date Posted: 5/14/08 8:18am Subject: RE: The 2008 US Elections: Discussion, Opinion, Predictions
LtNOWIS

Interesting election analysis.

I still think the best bet for McCain would be for Huckabee to work the church tour hard, guest sermoning everywhere he can, and so forth. He'd benefit from the limelight, and McCain could help him out in turn in the future. And Huckabee I believe is a man of conscience, so he'd want to be a part of overturning Roe vs. Wade even if it didn't directly benefit him. That course of action would bring conservative Christians to the polls, but it wouldn't spark secular fears in the same way. And there are probably more qualified VPs.

I'd say Huckabee is 'qualified'. He was Governor for ten years yes? IMO he's bright and capable, but he takes religion to far for me and he was shady, to say the least, in terms of attacking Romney's Mormonism.

Don't many on the right, especially talk radio, despise Huckabee? The thing is, Huckabee and McCain seem to get along and respect each other. Also, I would think the McCain campaign would bet on Huckabee being able to bring Evangelicals to the polls. Remember, over a third of Bush's vote in 2004 were Evangelical voters...more than Black voters and union members combined. I'd add that while the ticket may anger the Limbaugh crowd, the McCain campaign may be gambling on a 'Where ya going to go?' mentality in that while they may despise McCain/Huckabee, they surely will vote for them over Obama.

So again, it would be a strategy based on bringing out the 'foot soldiers'. Evangelicals are the largest 'bloc' vote, such as it were, so if the McCain campaign isn't convinced that he can bring them to the polls, then they may very well turn to Huckabee for the VP spot.

 

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DarthKarde 
Registered: Jun '02
7823_Darth Sidious
Date Posted: 5/14/08 1:38pm Subject: RE: The 2008 US Elections: Discussion, Opinion, Predictions
I remain convinced that McCain will pick a VP to appeal to evangelicals. It might not be Huckabee but it will be someone like him. The recent primaries show that McCain still has problems with the base which need addressing.

 

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Hammurabi 
Registered: Jan '07
44291_Han Solo
Date Posted: 5/14/08 1:56pm Subject: RE: The 2008 US Elections: Discussion, Opinion, Predictions
The thing about McCain is that because he is so old, his VP pick matters more than usual. There's a better-than-usual chance that if McCain is elected, his VP will eventually receive the office. So even though an evangelical pick might motivate the Christian conservative base, it's sure to make independents and libertarians nervous.

 

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Gonk 
Registered: Jul '98
6234_GNK droid
Date Posted: 5/14/08 2:28pm Subject: RE: The 2008 US Elections: Discussion, Opinion, Predictions
LT (hope you don't mind me referring to you as that), I'll have to get to your points later. I'm working on a side project outside of work right now. .net-tastic!

However, I did want to come on the boards to note that advance word is just in from CNN that Edwards will endorse Obama today or over the next couple of days.

 

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Blue_Jedi33 
Registered: Aug '03
24223_Yoda
Date Posted: 5/14/08 3:34pm Subject: RE: The 2008 US Elections: Discussion, Opinion, Predictions - Date Edited: 5/14/08 4:50pm (1 edits total) Edited By: Blue_Jedi33
If the supers needed a final signal which way to roll, Edwards is it. Biden,Gore, Peloso & Carter should not be far behind now. And some may say it's no big deal, but Edwards is the only super with delegates, which means most will follow his lead.

Does Howard Dean have to stay neutral until convention time?

 

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darthdrago 
Registered: Dec '03
14017_Mask of Doom
Date Posted: 5/14/08 5:57pm Subject: RE: The 2008 US Elections: Discussion, Opinion, Predictions
He'll stay neutral until it's clear that Obama will eventually go over the top in the delegate count--meaning that once he gets enough of the supers to declare in his favor, then Dean will be a little more forceful in telling Hillary to put it to bed.

But that's presuming that Hillary herself doesn't exit before the supers go Obama's way. Yesterday didn't make it look like she'd do that anytime soon. Despite the fact that she's still hemmorhaging funds, she still seems hellbent on grinding her campaign through the remaining primaries. Seems totally futile to me, but maybe she's hoping that decent showings in the remaining primaries will strengthen her case to seat Michigan & Florida's delegates.

 

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Jango10 
Registered: Sep '02
Date Posted: 5/14/08 6:19pm Subject: RE: The 2008 US Elections: Discussion, Opinion, Predictions
What kind of race are we looking at if Michigan and Florida are counted? I haven't looked at the numbers lately. Would it give Hillary any chance of victory?

 

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Leto II 
Registered: Jan '00
42114_Jones Attacked
Date Posted: 5/14/08 6:21pm Subject: RE: The 2008 US Elections: Discussion, Opinion, Predictions - Date Edited: 5/14/08 7:25pm (5 edits total) Edited By: Leto II
Rumor has it that Sen. Carl Levin (chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee) is going to endorse Obama as well, perhaps as early as tonight.

Not only did a Democrat win in a very Republican district in Mississppi last night...

...he's got a serious "Rupert Pupkin"-thing going on. Observe:


A great article at Politico.com, which lays it all out:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10366.html

While the Democrats who won were all very conservative Democrats, including Childers, it's very bad news for the Republicans that their brand is seen in such a bad light right now.

This strategy of picking conservative, "Blue Dog" Democrats who look like Republicans worked in a number of conservative House districts in 2006, and helped the Democrats sweep to a majority. That majority is going to get very large in November. The Democrats actually seem to be picking the right candidates to win in very conservative districts, for once.


darthdrago posted:
He'll stay neutral until it's clear that Obama will eventually go over the top in the delegate count--meaning that once he gets enough of the supers to declare in his favor, then Dean will be a little more forceful in telling Hillary to put it to bed.

But that's presuming that Hillary herself doesn't exit before the supers go Obama's way. Yesterday didn't make it look like she'd do that anytime soon. Despite the fact that she's still hemmorhaging funds, she still seems hellbent on grinding her campaign through the remaining primaries. Seems totally futile to me, but maybe she's hoping that decent showings in the remaining primaries will strengthen her case to seat Michigan & Florida's delegates.

I think the trouble many analysts have is approaching it with the view that EVERYONE views Hillary as a "negative." She's done a great job of disparaging Obama to part of the base (which is why so many people in the Democrats are pissed at her). Still, she's managed to help make him unattractive to a large swath of voters, and Obama needs to get a large portion of those people to vote for him in the general.

What's really unknown, though, is: how many came along for the ride strictly because they're Democrats?

So what can Obama do to overcome this "elitist" perception that she's created for him? Since she helped define it, it'll be easier if she helps shake it. And that's why this continued campaigning could be good. If the people who campaigned for Hillary can get the closure that their candidate lost fair-and-square, and she concedes, the tenor of the whole thing could quickly change.

The trouble is, that I think she's trying to go all-out in these last elections, and put as much doubt on Obama as possible, instead of doing the thing that's better for the party -- i.e., trying to figure out how to turn her base to support the candidate who is looking very likely to be the nominee.

 

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Lowbacca_1977 
Title: Senate Moderator
Registered: Jun '06
47276_2008 Winter Holidays
Date Posted: 5/14/08 8:47pm Subject: RE: The 2008 US Elections: Discussion, Opinion, Predictions
With the Mississippi election, I do wonder to what extent this effected things:
http://missfirstdistrict.blogspot.com/2008/05/dccc-hits-greg-davis-with-kkk.html
While Republicans are in trouble in general, stuff like this doesn't help.

 

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DeathStar1977 
Registered: Jan '03
7850_Luke Skywalker
Date Posted: 5/15/08 12:10am Subject: RE: The 2008 US Elections: Discussion, Opinion, Predictions
This is what I like about McCain:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080515/ap_on_el_ge/mccain_governing_style

And what I don't:

http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/the_budget_according_to_mccain_part_i.html

http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/the_budget_according_to_mccain_part_ii.html

 

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Hammurabi 
Registered: Jan '07
44291_Han Solo
Date Posted: 5/15/08 2:14am Subject: RE: The 2008 US Elections: Discussion, Opinion, Predictions
So I totally agree with you. From the beginning, I've felt that McCain has had the most reasonable foreign policy, but I've been very wary of him from a fiscal standpoint.

 

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