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Topic:
The 2008 US Elections: Discussion, Opinion, Predictions
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Lowbacca_1977
Title: Senate Moderator
Registered:
Jun '06
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Date Posted:
5/13 12:10pm
Subject:
RE: The 2008 US Elections: Discussion, Opinion, Predictions
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Obi-Wan McCartney posted:
DM, the only thing that the conservative base wants less than an Obama presidency is a McCain presidency. Why do you think Ron Paul is still getting a sizeable chunk of the vote? Nearly a third of the voters in some recent states want Ron Paul instead of McCain? A lot of conservative columnists are suggesting that the Christian Right would rather have Obama be President, as a lesson to the GOP, than have McCain. I have more respect for them because of that. McCain is a media creation, and the media loves Obama, McCain knows he's Bob Dole in this election. He is not going to run a negative campaign, and I suspect that McCain will run a clean respectable campaign that allows Obama to win so that he can play to his core constituency: the national press.
I'd say that its symblic more than anything else. It doesn't rule out that a. many of those making a symbolic vote may still vote for McCain when it comes to the general election and b. with McCain having the nomination already, there's not much motivation for many voters to go vote in the first place if they'd be voting for McCain, but those making a symbolic vote will still have that motivation.
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Lowbacca_1977
Title: Senate Moderator
Registered:
Jun '06
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Date Posted:
5/13 12:15pm
Subject:
RE: The 2008 US Elections: Discussion, Opinion, Predictions
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Just as an interesting note.... a site that's keeping track of how Obama and Clinton would do against McCain based on polling data.
Obama vs McCain
Clinton vs McCain
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Lord_Vivec
Registered:
Apr '06
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Date Posted:
5/13 12:21pm
Subject:
RE: The 2008 US Elections: Discussion, Opinion, Predictions
- Date Edited:
5/13 12:23pm (1 edits total)
Edited By:
Lord_Vivec
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Interesting. Right now McCain would beat Obama and Clinton would beat McCain.
EDIT: The senate race on that site look interesting.
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Lord Sithis, Dark Lord of Entropy  Senator of the Disciples of Lady Lumiya and Lord Shadowspawn Sith Governor of the Imperial Knights! Resistance is futile! Sinrebirth for Sith Emperor '08  Iron Gauntlet of the Sith
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chibiangi
Registered:
Jun '02
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Date Posted:
5/13 1:01pm
Subject:
RE: The 2008 US Elections: Discussion, Opinion, Predictions
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Darth-Ghost posted:
Something like that, she can't really abandon her "experience" argument without sounding phony, so saying how Obama now has the experience because he was able to beat her in a primary process tougher than a lot of general elections, even when she stayed in it to the end. Maybe that's her line of reasoning for staying in too.
I think her line of reasoning for staying in is to allow the people wishing to vote in their primaries (for her) a chance to cast their votes so that they aren't left feeling disenfranchised (sp?) or bitter. IMO, on a personal level, I think she doesn't want to go down as the woman who ran and gave up. If it goes until June 03, which it will, then everyone has had their chance and can be at least satisfied they had the opportunity to vote in the primary.
I find it amusing that she is still beating McCain in the polls and Obama isn't. So much for that plurality voting system.
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mujaki na kao de boku ni hohoemu
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Obi-Wan McCartney
Registered:
Aug '99
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Date Posted:
5/13 1:58pm
Subject:
RE: The 2008 US Elections: Discussion, Opinion, Predictions
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Kimball, its an interesting article. However, until I hear of a muslim leader with any clout condemn Obama for apostacy, I don't buy the argument. They may have a case against his dad, but Obama? Was Obama EVER a muslim in the eyes of the common muslim person? I'm not talking about extremists, and I'm not talking about technicalities, I'm asking if under these circumstances a muslim jury, made up of a cross-section of all strands of islam, would unanimously decide that he was an apostate. I'm not so sure, but who knows.
Regardless, KK, it just seems like you are trying to sneak in a "Obama's really a muslim!" argument here. Do YOU believe he's a muslim? Don't you believe he really is a Christian? The tone of your post seemed to say, well, he's REALLY a muslim, even if he calls himself a Christian, at least that's what I, Kimball, seem to think.
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Jediflyer
Registered:
Dec '01
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Date Posted:
5/13 2:07pm
Subject:
RE: The 2008 US Elections: Discussion, Opinion, Predictions
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About that polling data, it looks different from everything else I've seen.
For example: ABC News/Washington Post poll
In general election matchups, Obama leads McCain by 51-44 percent, similar to the last two ABC News/Washington Post polls. Standings in a Clinton vs. McCain race are 49-46 percent, again roughly similar to previous ABC News/Washington Post results.
Also, RCP puts both Dems ahead by ~5%.
Granted, it'll look a little different with the electoral college in play, but there is no way it'll be that far off.
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Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on, or by imbeciles who really mean it - Mark Twain
There are no dialogues, only intersecting monologues -Mark Twain
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Lord_Vivec
Registered:
Apr '06
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Date Posted:
5/13 2:48pm
Subject:
RE: The 2008 US Elections: Discussion, Opinion, Predictions
- Date Edited:
5/13 2:49pm (1 edits total)
Edited By:
Lord_Vivec
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Jediflyer posted:
About that polling data, it looks different from everything else I've seen.
For example: ABC News/Washington Post poll
In general election matchups, Obama leads McCain by 51-44 percent, similar to the last two ABC News/Washington Post polls. Standings in a Clinton vs. McCain race are 49-46 percent, again roughly similar to previous ABC News/Washington Post results.
Also, RCP puts both Dems ahead by ~5%.
Granted, it'll look a little different with the electoral college in play, but there is no way it'll be that far off.
Obama may be ahead in the popular vote, but it's the electoral college that counts. Obama has a lot of work in many states if he wants to win this.
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Lord Sithis, Dark Lord of Entropy Senator of the Disciples of Lady Lumiya and Lord Shadowspawn Sith Governor of the Imperial Knights! Resistance is futile! Sinrebirth for Sith Emperor '08 Iron Gauntlet of the Sith
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Jediflyer
Registered:
Dec '01
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Date Posted:
5/13 2:57pm
Subject:
RE: The 2008 US Elections: Discussion, Opinion, Predictions
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Jediflyer posted:
Granted, it'll look a little different with the electoral college in play, but there is no way it'll be that far off.
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Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on, or by imbeciles who really mean it - Mark Twain
There are no dialogues, only intersecting monologues -Mark Twain
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Lowbacca_1977
Title: Senate Moderator
Registered:
Jun '06
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Date Posted:
5/13 3:39pm
Subject:
RE: The 2008 US Elections: Discussion, Opinion, Predictions
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Its worth noting that how recent the polling is varies from state to state. Some polling data is 2 months old, so if thats changed, it can't be accurately reflected yet, but would change national numbers.
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DeathStar1977
Registered:
Jan '03
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Date Posted:
5/13 5:24pm
Subject:
RE: The 2008 US Elections: Discussion, Opinion, Predictions
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Huckabee the leading contender for VP?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/usnews/20080512/ts_usnews/sourcehuckabeetopsmccainsveeplist
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chibiangi
Registered:
Jun '02
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Date Posted:
5/13 6:13pm
Subject:
RE: The 2008 US Elections: Discussion, Opinion, Predictions
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DeathStar1977 posted:
Huckabee the leading contender for VP?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/usnews/20080512/ts_usnews/sourcehuckabeetopsmccainsveeplist
That is no surprise. Backroom deal back in West Virginia when McCain had his people throw the caucus for Huckabee effectively starting the begining of the end for Romney.
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mujaki na kao de boku ni hohoemu
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Obi-Wan McCartney
Registered:
Aug '99
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Date Posted:
5/13 7:40pm
Subject:
RE: The 2008 US Elections: Discussion, Opinion, Predictions
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Yeup, Huckabee scares me just like McCain scares me. I think those "morons" might just be electable.
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Kimball_Kinnison
Registered:
Oct '01
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Date Posted:
5/13 8:34pm
Subject:
RE: The 2008 US Elections: Discussion, Opinion, Predictions
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Obi-Wan McCartney posted:
Kimball, its an interesting article. However, until I hear of a muslim leader with any clout condemn Obama for apostacy, I don't buy the argument. They may have a case against his dad, but Obama? Was Obama EVER a muslim in the eyes of the common muslim person? I'm not talking about extremists, and I'm not talking about technicalities, I'm asking if under these circumstances a muslim jury, made up of a cross-section of all strands of islam, would unanimously decide that he was an apostate. I'm not so sure, but who knows.
Regardless, KK, it just seems like you are trying to sneak in a "Obama's really a muslim!" argument here. Do YOU believe he's a muslim? Don't you believe he really is a Christian? The tone of your post seemed to say, well, he's REALLY a muslim, even if he calls himself a Christian, at least that's what I, Kimball, seem to think.
OWM, you need to stop trying to put words into my mouth. As usual, you are ignoring what I actually said in order to substitute your caricatured view of what I said.
As I said, I was on vacation (just barely got home, haven't even unpacked yet), it was pointed out to me, and I thought hat everyone would find it interesting. It shows that the entire issue isn't as cut-and-dried as anyone has been treating it.
No, Obama is not a Muslim in a religious sense. He self-identifies as Christian, and that is the only standard that I have ever considered valid for determining a person's religion. However, under Islamic law, he is a Muslim (in more of a racial sense, much like identifying someone as a Jew can be done in a religious or a racial sense). This then relates to how he might be perceived by others, especially in the Middle East.
Strictly speaking, you could have a person who is identified as a member of all three major Abrahamic religions. If a Muslim man married a Jewish woman, and their child converted to Christianity, that child would legally be a Muslim under Islamic law (which passes through the father), a Jew under Jewish law (which last I checked passes through the mother), and a Christian by self-identification. How that person would be perceived by each group would be largely dependent on such factors.
And not that I specifically stated that this isn't a reason to vote against him. It is simply an example of how the issue isn't as cut-and-dried as people on either side have claimed. You should remember your namesake, who classically pointed out to Luke that many of the truths that we cling to depend greatly upon our own point of view.
To use a personal example, when I served my LDS mission I had a companion from Argentina. His family joined the LDS Church when he was about 1, and had already been baptized into the Catholic Church. When we knocked on doors, often people would respond to us simply saying "Soy Catolico" ("I'm Catholic"). He would then reply "Yo tambien!" ("Me, too!"), because according to the Catholic Church, he was still a Catholic (once baptized, you remain a Catholic unless you are excommunicated). Did it change the fact that he was an active and practicing Mormon? No, but it altered people's perceptions of him.
In the same technical way that my companion could honestly say that he was a Catholic, Obama can legitimately be seen as a Muslim under Islamic law. It doesn't matter that my companion self-identified as a Mormon, or that Obama self-identifies as a Christian, because a person's self-perception isn't the only one that we have to deal with in the real world. After all, Mormons self-identify as Christians, but you will find a good number of other Christians who perceive us differently.
It is that perception issue that people need to first accept before you can address it effectively. Simply saying "Obama's not a Muslim" is nothing more than denying the reality of how others might perceive him within other contexts. If you continue to deny other perceptions, you are unable to address them or deal with them properly.
Kimball Kinnison
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You deserve the wrath of Kimball...- OWM
Why, Kimball... I didn't know you had it in you.- KW
I think that Kimball just made a joke, and a funny joke at that.- Raven
Stupidity got us into this mess, why can't it get us out?
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KnightWriter
Title:
Administrator Emeritus
Registered:
Nov '01
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Date Posted:
5/13 8:37pm
Subject:
RE: The 2008 US Elections: Discussion, Opinion, Predictions
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KK, I'm certain that the ignorant folks in various parts of the country who believe Obama is a Muslim believe he's a Muslim not because of the obscure understanding you're promoting, but rather because they've been misinformed (and, in some cases, willfully ignorant even after being set straight) about him and believe that he actively claims to be Muslim (rather than being Christian).
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Kimball_Kinnison
Registered:
Oct '01
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Date Posted:
5/13 8:40pm
Subject:
RE: The 2008 US Elections: Discussion, Opinion, Predictions
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KnightWriter posted:
KK, I'm certain that the ignorant folks in various parts of the country who believe Obama is a Muslim believe he's a Muslim not because of the obscure understanding you're promoting, but rather because they've been misinformed (and, in some cases, willfully ignorant even after being set straight) about him and believe that he actively claims to be Muslim (rather than being Christian).
And what does that have to do with anything I posted? I believe I have specifically stated (as did the original article I posted) that it does relate to perception of Obama from the Middle East. I said nothing whatsoever about "the ignorant folks in various parts of the country".
Kimball Kinnison
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You deserve the wrath of Kimball...- OWM
Why, Kimball... I didn't know you had it in you.- KW
I think that Kimball just made a joke, and a funny joke at that.- Raven
Stupidity got us into this mess, why can't it get us out?
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