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Topic:
down goes the dollar and up goes US exports for a change.
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beezel26
Registered:
May '03
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Date Posted:
11/22/07 7:59pm
Subject:
down goes the dollar and up goes US exports for a change.
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how bad do you think it will get?
I mean the Chavez stated the opec should get rid of the dollar as an investment.
sad thing is he is right. The dollar is so low OPEC is losing money from the dollar investment.
The others want to look at the idea but let's face it. It will happen. But chances are it will be a basket of currencies used not just the dollar or the pound.
if they completely switch over from the dollar the collapse could be catastrophic. but a bit at a time it may not be so bad in the short term.
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Ender_Sai
Title: Manager Emeritus
Registered:
Feb '01
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Date Posted:
11/22/07 8:05pm
Subject:
RE: down goes the dollar and up goes US exports for a change.
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Beezel, this document is not new. It's been in place for years and it outlines, in an informal style, the guidelines for creating a thread.
You have successfully ignored this in successive threads. What am I to make of that?
What are we discussing here beezel? What's the discussion point? You've given nothing for people to sink their teeth into.
E_S
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In this truth he knew himself to be.
From sinking sands he stepped into light's embrace.
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Master_SweetPea
Registered:
Nov '02
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Date Posted:
11/22/07 10:33pm
Subject:
RE: down goes the dollar and up goes US exports for a change.
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How about we call this..
The International Impact of the decline of the dollar.
is that Senate worthy?
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I don't like the donkeys and I don't like the Elephants http://www.lp.org "Some people never have anything except ideas Go Do it! Lucky Numbers 3, 11, 21, 31, 41, 43"
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Ender_Sai
Title: Manager Emeritus
Registered:
Feb '01
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Date Posted:
11/22/07 11:36pm
Subject:
RE: down goes the dollar and up goes US exports for a change.
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It's not what you call it, it's the substance. You need something that people can actually get into and have ideas on. You know, stuffs like that?
E_S
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In this truth he knew himself to be.
From sinking sands he stepped into light's embrace.
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Kimball_Kinnison
Registered:
Oct '01
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Date Posted:
11/23/07 6:07am
Subject:
RE: down goes the dollar and up goes US exports for a change.
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Ender_Sai posted:
It's not what you call it, it's the substance. You need something that people can actually get into and have ideas on. You know, stuffs like that?
E_S
Let me try to save this. It may not be possible, but I'm feeling bored.
For some reason, a lot of economists predict doom and gloom when the dollar weakens with respect to other world currencies. Personally, I disagree with that, because it is a far too short-sighted view of things. It is actually a source of great opportunity to the US economy.
At the core of it, you have to consider the question of what does a dollar represent? The dollar is a unit of legal tender (currency) in the US. It is good for all debts, public and private, but only within the US. Anywhere else in the world, a dollar can only be used for two things: to buy goods or services from the US, or to trade with someone else who will trade it for good or services from the US. That's it.
The US has developed a trade deficit with other countries, in effect trading US dollars for goods without those dollars coming back to the US (people keep trading them back and forth outside the US). Eventually, the supply of US dollars outside the country gets large enough to reduce its scarcity, and make it drop in perceived value. This then encourages those who hold US dollars outside the US to stop trading them back and forth, and instead buy goods and services from the US, reducing the trade deficit.
Eventually, the supply of dollars outside the US will be reduced to the point that they are scarce, and the value will rise. At the same time, a trade surplus can develop (due to the reduced imports and increased exports). At this point, US imports will start to increase and exports will decrease, leading towards another trade deficit and the decline of the dollar.
Lather. Rinse. Repeat.
It's a constant cycle. Just because the dollar is weak doesn't mean that the US economy is in trouble. It just means that the economy has to react differently than when the dollar is strong. A strong dollar leans towards a consumer/importer society. A weak dollar leans towards a producer/exporting economy. An economy that doesn't cycle between those two phases is simply not healthy.
Kimball Kinnison
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You deserve the wrath of Kimball...- OWM
Why, Kimball... I didn't know you had it in you.- KW
I think that Kimball just made a joke, and a funny joke at that.- Raven
Stupidity got us into this mess, why can't it get us out?
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Jabbadabbado
Title: Senate Floor Moderator
Registered:
Mar '99
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Date Posted:
11/23/07 6:56am
Subject:
RE: down goes the dollar and up goes US exports for a change.
- Date Edited:
11/23/07 6:57am (1 edits total)
Edited By:
Jabbadabbado
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No amount of dollar weakness is going to engineer a trade surplus for the U.S. at this point.
The dollar is in trouble, as is the U.S. economy. In a very fundamental sense, the U.S. debt and trade deficit have become so extreme that there's no hope of it every being paid off. The answer, of course is to pay the debt back in currency that is worthless. I was in London recently. It felt like I was exchanging third world money, and everyone behind the counter in England brings it up too: "you probably never thought you'd be paying $8 for a tube of toothpaste." Excellent
For years, the U.S. dollar has been the currency of oil trade. That has given the U.S. a competitive advantage in oil markets - a built in discount on the price of oil. Now, that regime is starting to crumble.
from Reuters
Oil and the dollar will be decoupled eventually.
One danger people tend to overstate is China dumping its dollar reserves. Clearly, the Chinese have to be careful about doing this. If they allow their currency to float, all their plastic trinkets will be too expensive to export.
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Malthusian Doomsday Quack
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DroidGeneral
Registered:
Jun '05
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Date Posted:
11/23/07 11:37am
Subject:
RE: down goes the dollar and up goes US exports for a change.
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The US doesn't make anything anymore but bombs. So this notion of more exports is a fallacy.
Do we not forget how many manufacturing jobs we have sent overseas because of our corporate trade deals?
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"The Force will be with you, always." "Star Wars isn't dead."-George Lucas  Ron Paul 2008
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Kimball_Kinnison
Registered:
Oct '01
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Date Posted:
11/23/07 11:52am
Subject:
RE: down goes the dollar and up goes US exports for a change.
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DroidGeneral posted:
The US doesn't make anything anymore but bombs. So this notion of more exports is a fallacy.
Do we not forget how many manufacturing jobs we have sent overseas because of our corporate trade deals?
And I think you have no idea of exactly how much manufacturing actually happens in the US. Steel is a major export, as are agricultural products. That's only two areas that the US is a major exporter.
This document (warning - PDF) gives an overview of US exports. One ninth of the GDP of the US comes from exports, and our exports have been increasing faster than our imports. Why don't you tell me where those exports are coming from, if the "US doesn't make anything anymore but bombs".
If you have hard data to back up your claims, why don't you present it?
Kimball Kinnison
-----signature-----
You deserve the wrath of Kimball...- OWM
Why, Kimball... I didn't know you had it in you.- KW
I think that Kimball just made a joke, and a funny joke at that.- Raven
Stupidity got us into this mess, why can't it get us out?
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DroidGeneral
Registered:
Jun '05
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Date Posted:
11/23/07 12:52pm
Subject:
RE: down goes the dollar and up goes US exports for a change.
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Kimball_Kinnison posted:
If you have hard data to back up your claims, why don't you present it?
Kimball Kinnison
Well most people connected to the real world realize the US has lost millions of manufacturing jobs to overseas markets. Just go to your local retailer and look for the "made in____"
And stop with the harsh tone, its not becoming and certainly isn't the way to discuss issues with people.
The burden of proof is really on you.
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"The Force will be with you, always." "Star Wars isn't dead."-George Lucas Ron Paul 2008
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Darth-Ghost
Registered:
Oct '03
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Date Posted:
11/23/07 1:29pm
Subject:
RE: down goes the dollar and up goes US exports for a change.
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I'm not that good at economics, but the reason jobs are being outsourced to countries outside America is because it's cheaper and thus more profitable for business, right? Wouldn't a weaker U.S. dollar mean it could become cheaper to bring those jobs back home, creating more jobs for Americans? Also, that would mean more foreign countries and tourists would buy American goods because they are cheaper? That can't be a bad thing, we just need to make some changes to adapt. Or I'm completely misunderstanding.
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Kimball_Kinnison
Registered:
Oct '01
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Date Posted:
11/23/07 1:43pm
Subject:
RE: down goes the dollar and up goes US exports for a change.
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DroidGeneral posted:
Well most people connected to the real world realize the US has lost millions of manufacturing jobs to overseas markets. Just go to your local retailer and look for the "made in____"
And stop with the harsh tone, its not becoming and certainly isn't the way to discuss issues with people.
The burden of proof is really on you.
No, it isn't. You are the one who has made assertions. You need to back them up.
Notice, for example, how I gave you raw data showing that US exports are increasing, and are currently at 1/9 (11.1%) of the US's GDP? The are also increasing at a higher rate than US imports are increasing (12.7% increase in exports vs. 10.5% increase for imports). That's called supporting evidence.
Just telling someone "Just go to your local retailer..." isn't supporting evidence. You have asserted that the US doesn't have much in the way of manufacturing anymore. NOW it is time for you to meet the burden of proof.
For example, if the US doesn't manufacture much other than bombs, then explain this entry from the CIA World Factbook about the US:CIA Factbook posted:
Exports - commodities:
agricultural products (soybeans, fruit, corn) 9.2%, industrial supplies (organic chemicals) 26.8%, capital goods (transistors, aircraft, motor vehicle parts, computers, telecommunications equipment) 49.0%, consumer goods (automobiles, medicines) 15.0% (2003)
Last I checked, "capital goods" and "consumer goods" both fell clearly under the category of "manufacturing". Right there, that's 75% of the US's exports, and remember that exports are increasing. In fact, the US is the #1 exporter in the world.
Yes, 3 million manufacturing jobs have been shipped overseas since 2001, but that doesn't mean that they were lost completely. There have also been manufacturing jobs created here in the US in that time period as well.
Is that enough proof for you? I'm waiting to see your proof. Can you give anything substantial?
Kimball Kinnison
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You deserve the wrath of Kimball...- OWM
Why, Kimball... I didn't know you had it in you.- KW
I think that Kimball just made a joke, and a funny joke at that.- Raven
Stupidity got us into this mess, why can't it get us out?
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DroidGeneral
Registered:
Jun '05
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Date Posted:
11/23/07 2:27pm
Subject:
RE: down goes the dollar and up goes US exports for a change.
- Date Edited:
11/23/07 2:28pm (1 edits total)
Edited By:
DroidGeneral
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Ok point taken. But, if we are the number one exporter(as your graph from 2003-2004 indicates), then why do people say "good, we'll get more exports"? As if somehow more exports were needed.
A weaker dollar will start to be accepted less around the world which will come back to hurt us. If the oil cartels start demanding Euros instead of dollars, we're in trouble.
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"The Force will be with you, always." "Star Wars isn't dead."-George Lucas Ron Paul 2008
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Lowbacca_1977
Title: Senate Moderator
Registered:
Jun '06
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Date Posted:
11/23/07 3:01pm
Subject:
RE: down goes the dollar and up goes US exports for a change.
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DroidGeneral posted:
Ok point taken. But, if we are the number one exporter(as your graph from 2003-2004 indicates), then why do people say "good, we'll get more exports"? As if somehow more exports were needed.
A weaker dollar will start to be accepted less around the world which will come back to hurt us. If the oil cartels start demanding Euros instead of dollars, we're in trouble.
The reason people say we need more exports are twofold. First of all, it means more money coming into the U.S. which is always viewed positively. Secondly, is the sophisticated concept of a 'trade deficit'. While we're high on the export list (according to nationmaster we're now second behind Germany with 1024 billion dollars of exports, but we imported 1869 billion dollars worth of goods. That means that the net flow of currency was 745 billion dollars out of the U.S. economy. The idea of more exports is wanting to spend less money than we take in in international trade.
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Jabbadabbado
Title: Senate Floor Moderator
Registered:
Mar '99
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Date Posted:
11/23/07 3:29pm
Subject:
RE: down goes the dollar and up goes US exports for a change.
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The U.S. has run a trade deficit consistently since 1971. And it has exploded in the last 10 years. No amount of cheap currency will be generating a trade surplus for the U.S. If a weak currency boosts exports, and it should, it nevertheless will not alter U.S. balance of payments in any meaningful way.
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Lowbacca_1977
Title: Senate Moderator
Registered:
Jun '06
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Date Posted:
11/23/07 4:42pm
Subject:
RE: down goes the dollar and up goes US exports for a change.
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I'd actually say, if anything may shift it, the consumer discomfort over buying foreign made goods caused by the issues with lead in toys might do it, to at least a small extent.
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Ender_Sai
Title: Manager Emeritus
Registered:
Feb '01
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Date Posted:
11/23/07 6:40pm
Subject:
RE: down goes the dollar and up goes US exports for a change.
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DroidGeneral posted:
The US doesn't make anything anymore but bombs. So this notion of more exports is a fallacy.
Do we not forget how many manufacturing jobs we have sent overseas because of our corporate trade deals?
`
DroidGeneral, you epic fail at economics.
Please, do some research. Some. As in >0.
The US has the highest output in the world at ~$62,000 a head. One of the most productive labour:capital ratios in the world.
Your assertion is incorrect. Without merit. Without fact.
E_S
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In this truth he knew himself to be.
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