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Blue_Jedi33 Registered: Aug '03	Date Posted: 2/5 8:32am Subject: The Petro Dollar - it's effect on foreign policy.
	Very Interesting http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzF_4W1AIEo This video is very informative Iraq was selling its oil in euros and would not sell it in dollars - soon after we attacked. I expect an attack on Iran soon.. You do not mess with the people that print the dollar = the Fed and central bankers. Paper money is what the wars are all about. __________________________________________________ ______________ Iran's Oil Bourse could Topple the Dollar Fragile Dollar Hegemony: by Mike Whitney Global Research, February 4, 2008 Two weeks ago George Bush was sent on a mission to the Middle East to deliver a horse's head. We all remember the disturbing scene in Francis Ford Coppola's “The Godfather” where Lucca Brassi goes to Hollywood to convince a recalcitrant movie producer to use Don Corleone's nephew in his next film. The “Big shot” producer is finally persuaded to hire the young actor after he wakes up in bed next to the severed head of his prize thoroughbred. I expect that Bush made a similar “offer they could not refuse” to the various leaders of the Gulf States when he met with them earlier this month. The media tried to portray Bush's trip to the Middle East as a "peace mission", but that just a smokescreen. In fact, three days after Bush left Jerusalem, Israel stepped-up its military operations in the occupied territories and resumed its merciless blockade of food, water, medicine and energy to the 1.5 million people of Gaza. Clearly, Bush had green-lighted the operations or Israel's aggression would have been seen as a slap in the face of the President of the United States. So, what was the real purpose of Bush's trip? After all, he has no interest in peace or in honoring his commitment to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian crisis. So, why would he choose to visit the Middle East just as his second term as president is winding down and there is no chance of success? Sometimes personal visits are important; especially when the nature of the information is so sensitive that the message has to be made face to face. In this case, Bush went to the trouble of traveling half-way around the world to tell the Saudis and their friends in the Gulf States that they were going to continue linking their oil to the dollar or they were going to “sleep with the fishes”. For the last two months, various sheiks and finance ministers have been moaning and groaning about the falling dollar---threatening to break from the so-called “dollar-peg” and covert to a basket of currencies. Bush's trip appears to have rekindled the spirit of brotherly cooperation. The grumbling has ceased and everyone is back "on board". The regional leaders now seem considerably less bothered by the fact that inflation is gobbling up their economies and driving labor, food, energy and housing through the roof. Reuters summed it up like this: “After a flurry of public disagreements over currency reform last year, Gulf central bankers are trying to close ranks, talking up the pegs as a source of stability and playing down the dollar's weakness as a temporary phenomenon.” Looks like Bush smoothed things over. In the last two weeks, the Gulf leaders have watched nervously while the Federal Reserve has slashed rates by a whopping 125 basis points. The cuts are steadily eroding the $1 trillion of capital the sheiks have invested in US Treasuries and securities. “Inflation is at 16-year highs in Saudi Arabia and Oman, a 19-year peak in the United Arab Emirates. Gulf policymakers are intervening directly in loans, property and commodity markets to offset rate cut.” (Reuters) Property values have skyrocketed. Commercial property in the UAE has doubled since the beginning of 2007. The inflation-bomb has forced other Gulf states to provide food subsidies for their people and a “70% wage rise for some Emirati federal government employees.” Disgruntled migrant workers rioted in Dubai recently, demanding to be fairly compensated for the sharp increase in prices. The Saudi riyal has climbed to a 21-year peak. Currency traders expect another 8% rise in the dirham and riyal by April and they are predicting that interest rates will compel Central bankers throughout Gulf states to covert to either the euro or a basket of regional currencies. So far, however, the loyal Saudi princes have continued their support for the dollar. Defending Dollar Hegemony So, how important is it that oil continue to be denominated in dollars? Would the United States wage war to defend the dollar's status as the world's “reserve currency”? The answer to this question could come as early as this week, since the long-awaited Iranian Oil Bourse is scheduled to open between February 1-11. According to Iran's Finance Minister Davoud Danesh-Jafari, “All preparations have been made to launch the bourse; it will open during the 10-day Dawn (the ceremonies marking the victory of the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran) The bourse is considered a direct threat to the continued global dominance of the dollar because it will require that Iranian “oil, petrochemicals and gas” be traded in “non-dollar currencies”. (Press TV, Iran) The petrodollar system is no different than the gold standard. Today's currency is simply underwritten by the one vital source of energy upon which every industrialized society depends---oil. If the dollar is de-linked from oil; it will no longer serve as the de-facto international currency and the US will be forced to reduce its massive trade deficits, rebuild its manufacturing capacity, and become an export nation again. The only alternative is to create a network of client regimes who repress the collective aspirations of their people so they can faithfully follow directives from Washington. As to whether the Bush administration would start a war to defend dollar hegemony; that's a question that should be asked of Saddam Hussein. Iraq was invaded just six months after Saddam converted to the euro. The message is clear; the Empire will defend its currency. Similarly, Iran switched from the dollar in 2007 and has insisted that Japan pay its enormous energy bills in yen. The “conversion” has infuriated the Bush administration and made Iran the target of US belligerence ever since. In fact, even though 16 US Intelligence agencies issued a report (NIE) saying that Iran was not developing nuclear weapons; and even though the UN's nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, found that Iran was in compliance with its obligations under the Nuclear Nonproliferation (NPT) Treaty; a preemptive US-led attack on Iran still appears likely. And, although the western media now minimizes the prospects of another war in the region; Israel is taking the precautions that suggest that the idea is not so far-fetched. “Israel calls for shelter rooms to be set up in a bid to prepare the public for yet another war, this time, one of raining missiles.” (Press TV, Iran) "The next war will see a massive use of ballistic weapons against the whole of Israeli territory," claimed retired general Udi Shani. (Global Research globalresearch.ca/index.p...&aid=7982) Russia also sees a growing probability of hostilities breaking out in the Gulf and has responded by sending a naval task force into the Mediterranean Sea and the North Atlantic. According to an article on the Global Research site: “The flagship of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, the Moskva guided missile cruiser, joined up with Russian naval warships in the Mediterranean on January 18 to participate in the current maneuvers....The current operation is the first large-scale Russian Navy exercise in the Atlantic in 15 years. All combat ships and aircraft involved carry full combat ammunition loads. (Global Research, globalresearch.ca/index.p...&aid=7983) France is also planning military maneuvers in the Straits of Hormuz. Operation "Gulf Shield 01," will take place off the coast of Iran and will employ thousands of personnel in combined arms operations that will include simulated attacks on oil platforms.” Exercises are scheduled to take place from Feb. 23 to March 5, and will involve 1,500 French, 2,500 Emirate, and 1,300 Qatari personnel operating on land, at sea and in the air, the ministry said..."Around a half-dozen warships, 40 aircraft and dozens of armored vehicles will be in the war games", Fusalba said. www.defensenews.com/story...&C=mideast Additionally, within the last week, three of the main underwater cables which carry Internet traffic have been cut off in the Persian Gulf and three-quarters of the international communications between Europe and the Middle East have been lost. Large parts of the Middle East have been plunged into darkness. Is this merely a coincidence or is something else going on just below the surface? Ian Brockwell, of the American Chronicle said: "On the assumption that the cables cut were no accident, we must ask ourselves who would do such a thing and why. Clearly Iran, who were most affected, would gain nothing from such an action and are perhaps the target of those responsible?...Maybe this is a prelude to an attack, or perhaps a test run for a future one? Communication has always been an important factor in military action, and cutting these cables might affect Iran´s ability to defend itself." (American Chronicle, www.americanchronicle.com...les/51085) Despite the lack of media coverage, tensions are mounting in the Gulf and the probability of a US-led attack on Iran is still quite high. Bush is convinced that if he doesn't confront Iran, then no one will. He also believes that if he doesn't militarily defend the dollar, then America's days as “the world's only superpower” will soon be over. So, the real question is whether Bush will realize that America is already hopelessly bogged-down in two “unwinnable” conflicts or if he will “go with his gut” once again and lead us into a ruinous region-wide conflagration. This whole thing shows the the American system in very serious trouble. -----signature----- "It is the function of the CIA to keep the world unstable, and to propagandize and teach the American people to hate and fear, so we will let the Establishment spend any amount of money on arms." - John Stockwell, former CIA Case Officer,
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Jabbadabbado Registered: Mar '99	Date Posted: 2/5 8:48am Subject: RE: The Petro Dollar - it's effect on foreign policy. - Date Edited: 2/5 8:50am (2 edits total) Edited By: Jabbadabbado
	This has been periodic "news" for years. Saddam Hussein's threat to to take oil payments in Euros instead of dollars has been cited as a reason for the Iraq war. The Iran thing has been off and on news for more than a year. It's all BS. By itself, it's a non issue. My conclusion is that the global economy will make a long slow financial transition away from American monetary hegemony. In 50 years, Beijing could be the financial capital of the world. Eventually, monetary influence will shift to the country with the manufacturing power. The idea of post industrial economic hegemony is an illusion. In the short-term, however, everyone is acting to shore up the dollar against the future. Everyone is almost equally bought into the global dollar regime. Absent a world war, no one can afford to let the dollar collapse: not the Arabs, not the Chinese, not the Europeans. -----signature----- Malthusian Doomsday Quack
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ShaneP Registered: Mar '01	Date Posted: 2/6 2:33pm Subject: RE: The Petro Dollar - it's effect on foreign policy.
	Absent a world war, Well.... -----signature----- It was as if a million middle-aged virgins just farted with rage and were suddenly silenced.
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Lowbacca_1977 Title: Senate Moderator Registered: Jun '06	Date Posted: 2/6 3:04pm Subject: RE: The Petro Dollar - it's effect on foreign policy.
	BlueJedi, your thoughts on it? That initial post only has 18 words by you.
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Blue_Jedi33 Registered: Aug '03	Date Posted: 2/6 8:21pm Subject: RE: The Petro Dollar - it's effect on foreign policy.
	Since this older article applies, I though I would post it too. Iran's Oil Bourse: A Threat to the U.S. Economy? Niusha Boghrati Worldpress.org correspondent April 11, 2006 http://www.worldpress.org/Mideast/2314.cfm A new building under construction on Iran's Kish Island. The island's free trade zone is the alleged location for the up-coming Iranian oil bourse. (Photo: Webshots) While Iran's nuclear program has become a major focus of the international media, there are many who strongly believe that the program is only a cover for the U.S. government's true motive in a possible attack against Iran. What some analysts posit is the real concern for the United States is Iran's plan to open its own oil exchange — the Iranian Oil Bourse (IOB) — with the alleged goal of becoming the dominant center of the Middle East's oil trade. What makes the IOB the subject of such interest by the American government? According to rumors, which first vaulted the issue into the spotlight, the financial exchange in the aforementioned bourse will trade for oil in euros instead of the U.S. dollar. The dollar has long been the dominant currency for international oil trade. A Threat to the U.S. Economy? The debate over the ultimate financial impact of trading oil in euros rather than dollars is a complex one, but according to some experts such a move could lead to a huge drop in value for the American currency, potentially putting the U.S. economy in its greatest crisis since the depression era of the 1930s. The IOB has been on Iran's domestic agenda for quite some time and different dates have informally been announced for its opening, all which have been quietly disavowed as the deadline neared. March 20, the most recent rumored date, was the first day of the Persian calendar year. The Iranian Oil Ministry's public relations department has denied that the date corresponded to the opening of the bourse, and has mostly remained silent about the existence of such a program. Of course, the effectiveness of the IOB will depend on whether the big international oil trading companies decide to accept deals in euros or not. However, the potential financial impact on the U.S. economy remains more than just idle speculation. "The weapon of oil in the hands of Iran's regime is more dangerous than any other weapon," said a recently published article in Italy's Panorama newsmagazine. Iran's Deputy Oil Minister Mohammad Javad Assemipour, director of the IOB program, told Panorama that the oil trading center, due to open in a few months, will turn Iran into a major oil exchange point. "Iran's oil exchange with the region's countries and also some of the East Asia states will take place in euros instead of U.S. dollars," said Assemipour. Some of the major oil-producing countries such as Venezuela (which has boosted its economic ties to Iran) and a few of the larger oil consuming countries, most notably China and India, have already announced their support for the IOB. China and India, along with Russia, are powers that have at various times backed Iran's right to establish its own nuclear program. There is speculation that the IOB represents Iran's plan to escape any possible future economic sanctions spearheaded by the U.S. However, some postulate that the plan could also endanger the continued existence of Iran's regime. William Clark, an American security expert, predicted that if Iran threatened the hegemony of the U.S. dollar in the international oil market, the White House would immediately order a military attack against it. Some Insist Impact will be Negligible A number of economists believe that establishing the bourse will prove to be an impossible task for Iran. "More than 68 percent of the global international oil exchange is in U.S. dollars, and by abandoning dollars Iran will put its own economy in greater danger," said an unnamed Iranian professor of Economics in Paris. Other experts believe that even if the IOB commences operations, there is not much harm it can do to the U.S. economy. "Given the fact that Iran's share of the international oil market is somewhere around 5 percent, I do not believe that it can really absorb enough customers around the globe," said Russian economist Natalia Arlova. "And Iran's unstable political system is another obstacle. Let us not forget that one of the biggest characteristics of the international oil trade centers is stability. Apart from that, the reason the U.S. dollar has been the dominant currency in the oil trade is the huge share America has in the global economy. I do not think that only Iran's ambition to replace the dollar with the euro will be enough. There are much bigger factors." However the IOB, to be located in the free trade zone of Iran's Kish Island on the Persian Gulf, remains a potential destabilizing factor for the U.S. economy. This, according to some strategic analysts, is a probable motive for the rumored U.S. attack against the country. Experts point to the fact that the Iraq invasion in 2002 took place after Saddam Hussein refused to accept dollars as a payment medium for its oil exports and Oil For Food program, choosing euros instead. After discovering no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, speculations have been raised that the main cause for the invasion was the White House's fear of the possible financial repercussions of Saddam Hussein's plan to substitute dollars for euros. Maybe it was that fateful decision by the former Iraqi president which was the last straw for the White House before it sent U.S. soldiers marching into Baghdad. My opinion on this is that American dollar is in serious trouble, if it is indeed tied to oil like these people say, then no wonder the pressure is on. The Euro is serious competition for the dollar now, and the Americans don't like it. Oil & the dollar with the military industial complex and support system along for a very profitable ride too, not WMD and the "war on terror" are driving American foreign policy, it's a veneer for the other, but it is about power thats for sure, but more economic than military. -----signature----- "It is the function of the CIA to keep the world unstable, and to propagandize and teach the American people to hate and fear, so we will let the Establishment spend any amount of money on arms." - John Stockwell, former CIA Case Officer,
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Jabbadabbado Registered: Mar '99	Date Posted: 2/6 9:15pm Subject: RE: The Petro Dollar - it's effect on foreign policy.
	I agree with the "dollar's in serious trouble" argument. But disengaging the dollar from the global economy is not going to be an easy task for anyone who might be inclined to undertake it...something on the order of cutting a pound of flesh from a man without spilling any of his blood. In the long term, of course, the world's financial epicenter will shift to countries that export and produce. We can't endure as the world's foremost parasite nation. -----signature----- Malthusian Doomsday Quack
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Vaderize03 Title: Manager Emeritus Registered: Oct '99	Date Posted: 2/7 9:18am Subject: RE: The Petro Dollar - it's effect on foreign policy.
	Not necessarily, Jabba. America's strength, as pointed out by dizfactor in another thread, is in innovation and creativity. The future of the world's economy for first-world leaders like the US is not in a return to exporting, but to invention and innovation. You are correct in that manufacturing gives a nation great power, but it will make far more financial sense in the future for manufacturing to be done in countries like China than to maintain an "export-dominant" philosophy in the United States. The loss of manufacturing jobs in America needs to be accompanied by the retraining of those who held those jobs to help fit them in to the 21st century economy-not a return to the 1950s. It remains to be seen if that can be accomplished as a national policy, but it would greatly benefit America in the long run, even if the world's manufacturing base shifts to east Asia. Peace, V-03 -----signature----- "Bring your pretty face to my axe....." B-O-H-I-C-A !! (that was funny DM!) "I'm what Willis was talking about"
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