Author Topic: Have we been duped
Lowbacca_1977 
Title: Senate Moderator
Registered: Jun '06
Date Posted: 4/11 10:13pm Subject: RE: Have we been duped
Princess_Tina posted:
Lowbacca_1977 posted:
Which other factors, exactly? At the end of the day, people got loans that they couldn't afford for houses they couldn't afford. And they were adults. The companies that gave them the loans are going to feel the pain of it too, of course, but they still took those loans.


You're overlooking the fact that the mortgage crisis has expanded to well beyond those who comprise the "subprime" market -- affecting even those who were responsible borrowers and had good credit histories:

Like subprime mortgages, many prime loans made in recent years allowed borrowers to pay less initially and face higher adjustable payments a few years later. As long as home prices were rising, these borrowers could refinance their loans or sell their properties to pay off their mortgages. But now, with prices falling and lenders clamping down, homeowners with solid credit are starting to come under the same financial stress as those with subprime credit.


And I don't believe that getting a house that you will only be able to afford if you can refinance because the value went up is responsible. If you can do so and it frees your income up more, then fine, but you shouldn't be relying on that, prime OR subprime. Again thats a house that you can't afford and are banking on the value going up so that you can manage the payments.

Princess_Tina posted:
And again, you're overlooking the complexity of the situation, and the repercussions that went well beyond just the borrowers and lenders in the subprime market. Don't forget that a lot of the loan portfolios ended up with other financial institutions that were not even the original lenders.

You say ended up like the other financial institutions that ended up with the loan portfolios had it happen against their will.

 

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Princess_Tina 
Registered: May '01
14698_Padme
Date Posted: 4/11 10:18pm Subject: RE: Have we been duped - Date Edited: 4/11 10:18pm (1 edits total) Edited By: Princess_Tina
Lowbacca_1977 posted:

And I don't believe that getting a house that you will only be able to afford if you can refinance because the value went up is responsible. If you can do so and it frees your income up more, then fine, but you shouldn't be relying on that, prime OR subprime. Again thats a house that you can't afford and are banking on the value going up so that you can manage the payments.


Yes, but that was only one example of how the behavior of a specific market -- in this case, the subprime mortgage market -- has potential ramifications in other areas that presumably wouldn't have been affected in the absence of a problem in the subprime sector. The failure to contain the problem before it started spreading to other sectors has turned this into a larger problem than it needed to be.

Lowbacca_1977 posted:

You say ended up like the other financial institutions that ended up with the loan portfolios had it happen against their will.


I never said that any of that was against the will of those financial institutions. On the contrary, I would argue that they should have examined the portfolios much more carefully -- but guess what? They probably don't care anyhow, because they know the taxpayers will get stuck with paying for the bailout! Yes, that means you too, Lowbacca. wink

 

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Lowbacca_1977 
Title: Senate Moderator
Registered: Jun '06
Date Posted: 4/11 10:24pm Subject: RE: Have we been duped
Which is EXACTLY why I oppose the bailout.

 

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Princess_Tina 
Registered: May '01
14698_Padme
Date Posted: 4/11 10:26pm Subject: RE: Have we been duped - Date Edited: 4/11 10:29pm (1 edits total) Edited By: Princess_Tina
Lowbacca_1977 posted:
Which is EXACTLY why I oppose the bailout.


Well then we agree on something. But yet, correct me if I'm wrong, you're not in favor of the kinds of measures that could prevent this from happening again, leading to possibly more bank bailouts at some point in the future.

That's just another reason why in some ways the U.S. is starting to be more and more like Mexico. Lax regulations there also led to a huge wave of bank bailouts in the mid-90's. Why should the taxpayers, in Mexico or in the U.S., have to pay for the mistakes of wealthy bankers? confused

 

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Lowbacca_1977 
Title: Senate Moderator
Registered: Jun '06
Date Posted: 4/11 10:31pm Subject: RE: Have we been duped
What kinds of measures do you mean? I'd be opposed to, say, lying and saying you make more money than you do in getting the loan, or lying and telling someone that the rate on their loan is one thing when its really another, but I'm fairly sure most of those measures are already violations of law.
If a company wants to give a risky loan, they should be able to... they just then suffer when that person can't pay the money back. Similarly, if someone wants to get a loan they can't afford, they should be able to... they just have to face it when they get foreclosed on.

Just because I think something is a mistake and a bad move doesn't mean I think it should be illegal. I mean, should we pass a law against the stock market because its possible to lose all your money and be broke if a particular company goes broke? Or do we accept that an investor has accepted the risks involved in buying stocks?

 

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Princess_Tina 
Registered: May '01
14698_Padme
Date Posted: 4/11 11:51pm Subject: RE: Have we been duped - Date Edited: 4/12 12:08am (2 edits total) Edited By: Princess_Tina
Didn't you just say you are opposed to taxpayer-financed bank bailouts? rolling_eyes

Look, here's a piece from another recent op-ed that might make this easier to understand - since you seem to be having trouble understanding my position.

When the Fed is worried about the state of the economy, it basically responds by printing more of that green paper, and using it to buy bonds from banks. The banks then use the green paper to make more loans, which causes businesses and households to spend more, and the economy expands.

This process can be almost magical in its effects: a committee in Washington gives some technical instructions to a trading desk in New York, and just like that, the economy creates millions of jobs.

But sometimes the magic doesn’t work. And this is one of those times.

These days, it’s rare to get through a week without hearing about another financial disaster. Some of this is unavoidable: there’s nothing Mr. Bernanke can or should do to prevent people who bet on ever-rising house prices from losing money. But the Fed is trying to contain the damage from the collapse of the housing bubble, keeping it from causing a deep recession or wrecking financial markets that had nothing to do with housing.

So Mr. Bernanke and his colleagues have been doing the usual thing: printing up green paper and using it to buy bonds. Unfortunately, the policy isn’t having much effect on the things that matter. Interest rates on government bonds are down — but financial chaos has made banks unwilling to take risks, and it’s getting harder, not easier, for businesses to borrow money.


http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/14/opinion/14krugman.html?

I totally agree with Krugman that the Fed shouldn't be doing stuff to "prevent people who bet on ever-rising house prices from losing money". And I feel equally strongly about the other part of that premise - that at this point the government has to contain the damage from the collapse of the housing bubble... and again, what the eventual cost may be to taxpayers remains to be seen.

Even George Soros, certainly not someone unexperienced with global finance, warns that this could be one of the worst crises of recent times, and blames the government regulators for not doing more to prevent the current crisis:

“I consider this the biggest financial crisis of my lifetime,” Mr. Soros said during an interview Monday in his office overlooking Central Park. A “superbubble” that has been swelling for a quarter of a century is finally bursting, he said.

Mr. Soros, a fierce critic of the Bush administration, faults regulators for allowing the buildup of the housing and mortgage bubbles. He envisions a time, not so distant, when the dollar is no longer the world’s main currency and people will have a harder time borrowing money.


http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/11/business/11soros.html?

 

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Kimball_Kinnison 
Registered: Oct '01
6249_Veers
Date Posted: 4/12 7:32am Subject: RE: Have we been duped
Princess_Tina posted:
Look, here's a piece from another recent op-ed that might make this easier to understand - since you seem to be having trouble understanding my position.
If anyone is having a hard time understanding your position, it is for only one reason: you haven't articulated your position. You post a lot of op-eds, but you aren't articulating an independent position and presenting facts to support it. At best, you are posting what a lot of other people's opinions are, and saying "Yeah, I agree with them".

Of course, there are some fundamental problems with the op-eds you've posted. Such as:
Princess_Tina posted:
When the Fed is worried about the state of the economy, it basically responds by printing more of that green paper, and using it to buy bonds from banks. The banks then use the green paper to make more loans, which causes businesses and households to spend more, and the economy expands.
The Fed does not print money. All money is printed by the US Department of the Treasury through the Bureau of Engraving and Printing, or the US Mint.

The Fed is a Reserve, which means that it holds on to money, and releases it into the economy (or pulls it out of the economy) as needed to create an elastic money supply. It does this by changing the interest rate that it charges for loans to other financial institutions.

Claiming that the Fed "prints more of that green paper" is a very big hint that the person doesn't have that much of a clue what they are talking about, or that they are dumbing things down and you might not get the best understanding from what they write.

But then, that's why I don't like people using op-eds to support their positions. You should be able to support your positions with facts, not other people's opinions. Supporting them on the basis of other people's opinions is nothing more than an appeal to authority, which more often than not is a severe logical fallacy.

Princess_Tina posted:
Even George Soros, certainly not someone unexperienced with global finance, warns that this could be one of the worst crises of recent times, and blames the government regulators for not doing more to prevent the current crisis:

“I consider this the biggest financial crisis of my lifetime,” Mr. Soros said during an interview Monday in his office overlooking Central Park. A “superbubble” that has been swelling for a quarter of a century is finally bursting, he said.

Mr. Soros, a fierce critic of the Bush administration, faults regulators for allowing the buildup of the housing and mortgage bubbles. He envisions a time, not so distant, when the dollar is no longer the world’s main currency and people will have a harder time borrowing money.

Once again, you are using an op-ed to support your position, as opposed to basing it on facts. Moreover, you aren't really looking at the op-eds all that critically.

For example, you rely on George Soros because he is "not someone unexperienced with global finance", but you don't stop to question his motives. An alternate motive is very clearly stated in what you quoted, but you almost completely ignore it:
the NY Times posted:
Mr. Soros, a fierce critic of the Bush administration, faults regulators for allowing the buildup of the housing and mortgage bubbles.
George Soros has been opposed to practically every action of the Bush Administration since day 1. He helped found MoveOn.org, one of the organizations that are Bush's most fierce attackers. It's almost impossible to find an action of the government under Bush that Soros agrees with.

Essentially, by basing your opinion on him, you are saying "And that person over there, who always disagrees with this Administration, says that this Administration screwed things up." You aren't really examining your op-eds for the influence of their biases, and as a result your opinions based on them are corrupted by such biases.

But then, you still haven't answered a very important question I asked earlier. I'll repost it for you, with emphasis:
Kimball_Kinnison posted:
What do you mean, "all but entirely unregulated for all practical purposes"? The mortgage industry is one of the most heavily regulated industries out there! They are under not just federal regulations, but numerous state ones, too. Again, I used to work at a mortgage company, and I saw first hand many of the regulations that they were under.
If you are going to claim that the industry was practically unregulated, then back it up. And no, backing it up doesn't mean post a bunch of other peopl writing op-eds that claim that it was a fault of regulation. It means post how current regulation was insufficient and needs to be corrected.

Until you do that, all you really have is the assertion that they were unregulated, not any real proof of it.

Kimball Kinnison

 

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Princess_Tina 
Registered: May '01
14698_Padme
Date Posted: 4/12 7:39am Subject: RE: Have we been duped - Date Edited: 4/12 7:57am (2 edits total) Edited By: Princess_Tina
Didn't you say you used to work for a mortgage company? I think you should have a much better idea of just how regulations failed to prevent the situation from getting out of hand.

Now, trying to stick to the thread topic as closely as possible, I think it's self-evident that it's all about perceptions. Whether or not we have been "duped" -- either individually or collectively -- is something pretty subjective, tied to both expectations as well as the amount of time the average American (i.e., not an economist) spends trying to follow what's going on in the economy. The thread topic, to the best of my understanding, isn't so much about the particular ways in which a government should or shouldn't regulate certain areas of the economy, but rather whether we're left with the impression that we have been deceived (again, either individually or collectively) in regards to the financial well-being that people can expect. To that extent, I think it's entirely appropriate to bring up opinions, both personal and from op-ed writers, that address the extent to which we were or weren't "duped".

 

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Kimball_Kinnison 
Registered: Oct '01
6249_Veers
Date Posted: 4/12 7:50am Subject: RE: Have we been duped
Princess_Tina posted:
Didn't you say you used to be in the mortgage business yourself? I think you should have a much better idea of just how regulations failed to prevent the situation from getting out of hand.
Yes, I worked for a mortgage company, but I'm not the one asserting that a lack of regulation caused this problem. You have made that claim, and so it is up to you to prove your claim.

I don't think that this was caused by a lack of regulation. I think it was caused by a bunch of greedy investors (on both sides) who made a bunch of stupid choices without looking at the consequences of those choices. You simply can't cure stupid.

So, once again, please answer the question:
Kimball_Kinnison posted:
What do you mean, "all but entirely unregulated for all practical purposes"?


Kimball Kinnison

 

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You deserve the wrath of Kimball...- OWM
Why, Kimball... I didn't know you had it in you.- KW
I think that Kimball just made a joke, and a funny joke at that.- Raven
Stupidity got us into this mess, why can't it get us out?
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Jabbadabbado 
Title: Senate Floor Moderator
Registered: Mar '99
7388_Throne Room
Date Posted: 4/12 7:54am Subject: RE: Have we been duped
I think that you have to blame high-level policymaking as much as stupid individuals and institutional/business stupidity. Remember Bush's "ownership society" speech? That was at heart and openly a top-level endorsement of the path America was taking into the real estate crisis. Basically, George Bush encouraged institutions to make these stupid loans and individuals to take them. It was almost a promise that the gravy train of upward real estate prices would keep on chugging along.

 

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Princess_Tina 
Registered: May '01
14698_Padme
Date Posted: 4/12 8:01am Subject: RE: Have we been duped - Date Edited: 4/12 8:27am (4 edits total) Edited By: Princess_Tina
Jabbadabbado posted:
I think that you have to blame high-level policymaking as much as stupid individuals and institutional/business stupidity. Remember Bush's "ownership society" speech? That was at heart and openly a top-level endorsement of the path America was taking into the real estate crisis. Basically, George Bush encouraged institutions to make these stupid loans and individuals to take them. It was almost a promise that the gravy train of upward real estate prices would keep on chugging along.


Yes, I would totally agree with that.

I think there's an old saying, and I'm just trying to paraphrase it somewhat, that goes "If you owe the bank $3,000 and you can't pay, you're in trouble. If you owe the bank $300 million and you can't pay, the bank's in trouble."

Kimball_Kinnison posted:
[quote=Princess_Tina]Ordinarily I would agree with that, but the latest crisis has shown that when a whole sector of the economy is all but entirely unregulated for all practical purposes, bad things can happen that affect the whole economy. You could argue that people who are prepared for a recession regardless of cause, will be able to get through it, and I wouldn't disagree with that. However, if just a little bit more regulation could make the difference between a strong economy (which benefits all) and a wobbly economy (which sometimes affects people who behave responsibly) I would prefer the former. It's possible that a majority of Americans would prefer stronger regulations in place, because as we have now seen, the effects of a crisis in one sector can sometimes spill into the whole economy. In any event, I'm sure that if there is enough popular support for such measures, they might conceivably be enacted by the future administration.
What do you mean, "all but entirely unregulated for all practical purposes"? The mortgage industry is one of the most heavily regulated industries out there! They are under not just federal regulations, but numerous state ones, too. Again, I used to work at a mortgage company, and I saw first hand many of the regulations that they were under.

[EDITED TO ADD]
OK, I had to go back to the original quote on this one, so just to clarify things... when I originally mentioned the lack of regulations of "a whole sector of the economy", I wasn't really referring to the mortgage industry itself as much as I was to non-depository banks. On this regard, the U.S. Treasury Secretary has expressed similar opinions:

Paulson: Fed Loans Mean Greater I-Bank Regulation
March 26, 2008

WASHINGTON (dpa) -- The Federal Reserve's drastic measures to make loans available to struggling investment banks should come with increased tabs on a little-regulated sector of the financial industry, U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said Wednesday.

Paulson said that greater oversight and transparency was a logical consequence of gaining access to federal funds, which the U.S. central bank has made available to investment firms in a bid to stave off a wave of bankruptcies sparked by the ongoing credit crisis.


Investment banks have reported billions of dollars in writedowns amid the plummeting value of mortgage-backed securities, leading the Fed earlier this month to open up loans at its discount lending rate, usually reserved for commercial banks.

The initiative gives non-depository banks access to federal money for the first time since the 1930s and came as part of a wave of recent measures by the Fed to shore up the sagging U.S. economy, including cutting its key interest rate by 2 percentage points since the beginning of the year.


http://www.hispanicbusiness.com/news/2008/3/26/paulson_fed_loans_mean_greater_ibank.htm

The traditional, deposit-taking banks have been regulated since the 1930's as a result of the bank runs of the Great Depression. We should remember that bank failures can threaten the whole economy... when that happens it is no longer a matter of assigning blame to individual lenders or borrowers....

 

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Kimball_Kinnison 
Registered: Oct '01
6249_Veers
Date Posted: 4/12 8:17am Subject: RE: Have we been duped
Princess_Tina posted:
Jabbadabbado posted:
I think that you have to blame high-level policymaking as much as stupid individuals and institutional/business stupidity. Remember Bush's "ownership society" speech? That was at heart and openly a top-level endorsement of the path America was taking into the real estate crisis. Basically, George Bush encouraged institutions to make these stupid loans and individuals to take them. It was almost a promise that the gravy train of upward real estate prices would keep on chugging along.


Yes, I would totally agree with that.

I think there's an old saying, and I'm just trying to paraphrase it somewhat, that goes "If you owe the bank $3,000 and you can't pay, you're in trouble. If you owe the bank $300 million and you can't pay, the bank's in trouble."
Neither of your posts really answer the question, though.

Exactly how was there a lack of regulation? Where specifically were the regulations insufficient?

From where I sit, I see a lot of people who did a lot of stupid things (both by lending money they couldn't afford and by borrowing money they couldn't afford), but last I checked being stupid wasn't against the law. In fact, it's almost impossible to make it criminal to be dumb.

Kimball Kinnison

 

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Princess_Tina 
Registered: May '01
14698_Padme
Date Posted: 4/12 8:20am Subject: RE: Have we been duped
KK - see my earlier post. I just answered that.

 

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Kimball_Kinnison 
Registered: Oct '01
6249_Veers
Date Posted: 4/12 8:34am Subject: RE: Have we been duped - Date Edited: 4/12 8:37am (1 edits total) Edited By: Kimball_Kinnison
Princess_Tina posted:
KK - see my earlier post. I just answered that.
1) Please don't edit previous posts to dump a lot of things into them. If you have a very short thought and want to add a lot more, then just wait to post the whole thing. It's not a race. I couldn't see your earlier post, because you hadn't edited it yet. If you want to post a significant amount of new material, do a new post. It's only polite.

2) No, you didn't answer that. You posted another op-ed. You have basically said that it is unregulated because someone else thinks it was mostly unregulated.

Come on! You can't show any original thinking if all you do is parrot back what other people say. I want to get your thoughts on this, not simply a list of op-eds that you've read. Quite simply, from here on out, I'm not reading any more op-eds that you post. That are nothing more than a waste of my time.

Kimball Kinnison

EDIT: See, edits are for things like correcting spelling (like I just did), not for adding pages of new material.

 

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Princess_Tina 
Registered: May '01
14698_Padme
Date Posted: 4/12 8:42am Subject: RE: Have we been duped - Date Edited: 4/12 8:50am (2 edits total) Edited By: Princess_Tina
Kimball_Kinnison posted:

2) No, you didn't answer that. You posted another op-ed. You have basically said that it is unregulated because someone else thinks it was mostly unregulated.


Obviously, you cannot tell the difference between an op-ed and a news report... what I posted is not an op-ed, it is a news report quoting the U.S. Treasury Secretary. And that is just to show that even at the cabinet level, officials agree that non-depository banks should be more closely regulated.

So, please go back and re-read that post... I have explained how you had misunderstood my earlier statement, I have clarified that the regulation I mentioned was in regards to non-depository banks, and I have even provided you with a quote by the U.S. Treasury Secretary saying that, yes, the government is now also saying that there will have to be increased regulation of non-depository banks. (My personal position was reached before even reading the statement by the Treasury Secretary, btw).

 

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