2010 Election Thread - Results

Discussion in 'Archive: The Senate Floor' started by Lowbacca_1977, May 17, 2010.

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  1. Lowbacca_1977 Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Jun 28, 2006
    star 6
    Since this looks like this will be an eventful year for elections, at least on a congressional level, I think we may need a thread that's a bit broader in scope than just looking at a particular party for this election.

    To start the ball rolling, an interesting article I found regarding this is the polling of just how many people want to see their congressman reelected, and mentions some of the incumbents that have already faced trouble.
    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100515/ap_on_el_ge/us_ap_poll_restless_voters

  2. Lowbacca_1977 Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Jun 28, 2006
    star 6
    Figured it's worth mentioning some polling numbers as we go into Tuesday with two primaries.

    In Pennsylvania, Arlen Specter has a primary contest where the polling numbers of late are favouring his challenger, although no one's polling over 50 percent yet, so I'd not think the result is clear yet.
    http://www.pollster.com/polls/pa/10-pa-sen-dempr-svse.php

    In Arkansas, Blanche Lincoln is leading the polls, but needs to clear 50% to win without a runoff, however it's looking possible that no one will gain enough votes to grab the Democrat spot today.

    I don't think the Republicans have any big things going on today in primaries.
  3. JediSmuggler Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Jun 5, 1999
    star 5
    Two races have had some big news:

    In Indiana, Mark Souder is resigned after news of an affair. He will be gone, but in a R+14 district, no party change.

    In Connecticut, Dick Blumenthal is reeling from a report that he mischaracterized his military service. This could be bad - it may force the Democrats to spend more resources on that race, so even if they hold that, it could mean that other seats will not have those resources.
  4. anakin_girl Jedi Grand Master

    Member Since:
    Oct 8, 2000
    star 6
    I'm not going to be surprised if the GOP takes Congress back, nor will I be all that upset. The idea of John Boehner as Speaker of the House makes me [face_sick] , but at the same time I think it's good for the country in a lot of ways to have the legislative and executive branches run by different parties.

    I also think the anti-incumbent fervor is good for the country, especially given that the two political parties are barely distinguishable from each other lately. They are two sides of the same corporatist big spending pet program coin, only with different pet programs.

    In North Carolina one of our senators, Richard Burr, is up for re-election and I hope he loses, but I'm not holding my breath, given that the Democrats have a run-off in their primary. My district's representative in the House, Mel Watt, is also up for re-election, and I'm avoiding participating in the anti-incumbent fervor there because I like him. He's a level-headed man, as opposed to most of the other House Democrats who acted like two-year-olds during the health care debate, and he's very responsive to his constituents.
  5. Raven Administrator Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Oct 5, 1998
    star 6
    I find the Bob Bennett thing fascinating.

    According to one Newsweek blog post:


    The article goes on to point out that if the man lived in a hotbed of liberalism like Texas or Alabama, he probably would have been fine, but Utah is the reddest state of all. He ended up losing his place due to the delegate system in place in Utah; he hasn't dropped in overall popularity, just fallen out of favvor with the most conservative. Which kind of leads me to the question, in a roundabout sort of way: would the Repbulican party and the state be better served by putting the most conservative candidate they can find in place, or by the most electable, even if the most electable man has some sneaky liberal leanings?







  6. KnightWriter Administrator Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Nov 6, 2001
    star 8
    I've said it many times: Democrats will do much better than expected. They'll lose about 15-20 seats in the House and about 3-4 seats in the Senate.
  7. Vaderize03 Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Oct 25, 1999
    star 5
    Agree w/KnightWriter.

    We're past the peak of anger, jobs are slowly coming back, and passions over the health care bill, while strong with those who are rabidly anti-Obama anyway, are fading with independents.

    It's all psychology, and timing. I think KW's predictions are spot-on.

    The bigger questions becomes 2012, and also, how many seats do the GOP lose? I think some republicans who get knocked off by conservative challengers may not fare as well in the general election. Anyone too far on either side of the spectrum will not fare well this fall, or in 2012, IMHO.

    Peace,

    V-03
  8. Kimball_Kinnison Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Oct 28, 2001
    star 6
    What is your basis for making those claims?

    Predictions without underlying analysis are useless if you want to take part in a real discussion. For example, according to RealClearPolitics, the current environment suggests a GOP pickup of 7 seats in the Senate. Are their source polls incorrect? If so, what is your source? If not, then what do you think will cause that to change down to 3-4 seats?

    If you want to just do a drive-by post, why don't you go back to the JCC.

    Kimball Kinnison
  9. Gonk Jedi Grand Master

    Member Since:
    Jul 8, 1998
    star 6
    KW: If the GOP continues the stonewalling that's characterized the past year, losing that amount of seast will be enough.

    The thing is a lot of these GOP congressmen are essentially being given marching orders by thier constituents to vote "No" on most items of import. The might also be endorsed to push the Congressional agenda towards an immigration proposal although they are not in the majority. A lot of these candidates could well start a campign to just vote no on EVERYTHING until immigration reform is tabled, effectively stalling congress.

    That may or may not happen but even your numbers see the Democrats losing the filibuster-buster majority, and in this environment, that's key.

    The thing that annoys me is that the numbers on the economy are looking more favorable and are set against previous Republican failures... and the reason for those failures are mostly to do with GOP methodology. And yet for this, the GOP is rewarded.

    What was that chapter on "Guns, Germs and Steel" about what happened to the Vikings in North America...? o_O
  10. KnightWriter Administrator Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Nov 6, 2001
    star 8
    I have mostly just my intuition to go on, but I've felt rather strongly about this for awhile. The economy is slowly turning, and I think some in the media are anxious to play up a baseless parallel to 1994. We'll see how it turns out, but expect to see some surprising Democratic victories and Democrats easily maintaing control of both Houses. Yes, they'll have lost seats, but it means that Blue Bogs that have been an obstacle won't have to be placated anymore.
  11. DeathStar1977 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Jan 31, 2003
    star 4
    KK

    Unless I'm misreading, the total number of 'D' seats in the leans/likely GOP columns equals five, not seven. I do think the Conn. seat may move from 'likely Dem' due to the revelations today about the Democratic candidate that JS pointed out.

    I think the Democrats will have a better chance of keeping PA if Sestak, not Specter is the candidate. I guess we'll find out today.

    It will be very interesting to see if McCain wins his primary. It looks like he will, but stranger things have happened.
  12. Vaderize03 Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Oct 25, 1999
    star 5
    The basis for his claims, Kimball, is that 6 months, even two months, is an eternity in politics.

    The narrative is mostly media-driven, based on psychology, and very likely to change at least several times between now and November. The Tea Party may end up really hurting the GOP outside of traditionally strong conservative areas. I think that if the election were to have been held in January, the GOP would own Congress, but that passion has stabilized, and redistributed. By November, I expect a slightly worse than average "midterm" year for the dems, with moderate losses in both Houses, but not enough to flip it.

    I also think that they will gain in '12, and Obama will be re-elected. The dems may have intraparty fighting, but the GOP is even worse. I truly believe that their best recipe for a comeback is a return to the Rockefeller-Republican era. The dominance of the social conservatives, and their anti-science, pro-government-sanctioned-morality-policing, does not play very well as a national strategy. Reagan harmed the party by bringing them into the fold, IMHO.

    Personally, I would like to see open primaries, and term limits across the board. I think it would help restore an element of centrism to American politics, and help dilute the extremists-on both sides-who are castigating any attempt at compromise and moving forward.

    Alas, I fear it may be a pipe dream.

    Peace,

    V-03
  13. JediSmuggler Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Jun 5, 1999
    star 5
    The numbers underneath don't seem to be changing.

    56% of likely voters still favor repeal of health care - the numbers have been between 54-58% constantly. Obama's approval in the tracking poll by Rasmussen is down to about 45%. 55% favor an immigration law like Arizona's.

    The anger may be lessened, but it's not going to help. It appears to have been replaced with resolve.
  14. anakin_girl Jedi Grand Master

    Member Since:
    Oct 8, 2000
    star 6
    I think Obama will be re-elected in 2012, simply because the forerunners in the GOP seem to be closer to the Scarecrow in the Wizard of Oz: people without brains doing an awful lot of talking. Not to mention being the same old hypocrites: I favor cutting government spending!--everywhere but my district. Or only on social programs. I favor small government!--except when I'm telling you who you can marry or what you can do in your bedroom. I think the majority of Americans can see through this hypocrisy.

    I would vote for a GOP candidate if he or she were a real libertarian. There don't seem to be any.
  15. Kimball_Kinnison Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Oct 28, 2001
    star 6
    Sorry. I gave the wrong link for the point I was making.

    The link I gave was including the "Toss Up" races (GOP +5, 6 toss ups). This link gives the current state of the races if the election were held today (GOP +7).

    Change doesn't necessarily benefit the Democrats, though. What basis does he have (other than his own wishful thinking) to believe that the Democrats' position will improve instead of decline?

    Last summer was horrible for Obama, in large part because of the town halls and health care. How do you know that this summer won't be more of the same? Simply saying "I think it will improve" or even "6 months is an eternity in politics" doesn't actually say anything more than "I'm pulling this out of my rear".

    The current trends do not support either KW or your claims. Your intuition isn't exactly a good basis for all of us to work off of, and so that leaves me back at my original question for KW (and anyone else), of "What evidence do you have to support your predictions?"

    Kimball Kinnison
  16. Mr44 VIP

    Member Since:
    May 21, 2002
    star 6
    In Indiana, Mark Souder is resigned after news of an affair. He will be gone, but in a R+14 district, no party change.

    In Connecticut, Dick Blumenthal is reeling from a report that he mischaracterized his military service. This could be bad - it may force the Democrats to spend more resources on that race, so even if they hold that, it could mean that other seats will not have those resources.


    And both of these represent the oldest of political gaffes. Souder did the "I had sex with a member of my staff," which is stupid, but at least he's resigning.

    Blumenthal is looking more and more idiotic by using the "I misspoke" defense. Oh, so you meant to say you served during Vietnam, and not in Vietnam. Except of course, for the interview MSN dug up where Blumenthal told about how he remembers being spit on by hippies coming home from the war. That's not "misspeaking," that's an outright falsehood.

  17. Vaderize03 Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Oct 25, 1999
    star 5
    Evidence is history, Kimball, and a more than basic understanding of psychology and news cycles.

    Fact: most americans pick up their talking points from the MMM, or conservative talk radio. While the latter will hammer at Obama with the same frenetic pitch the entire time he is in the WH, the former will bash both parties equally. Polls, if one looks carefully, are almost always correlated with media stories. Now, that doesn't necessarily prove causation, but it does raise one's suspicions.

    I fully expect the dems to lose seats in both houses come November. However, I don't expect them to hemorrhage. I don't expect a 1994 tidal wave. Polls now cannot predict voter anger, discontent, or fickleness in the fall. I think that the GOP will also lose some races, cutting into their net gain. Why? Because I think that some independents will drift back towards the dems come November. I think that their base will become more energized closer to the election. I think that jobs will improve, and the WH will hammer this, as will the MMM, over and over again through the late summer and fall.

    You cannot compare last summer and this summer. Last summer was about getting a law passed. This summer will be about benefits that the administration has fast-tracked into existence and will be well entrenched come the midterms. It's a similar narrative, but a totally different ground situation. All the talk about the dems losing Congress is just that-talk. Voters are so very fickle that the only real predictor will be local economic factors, scandal, and the very-media-driven "buzz" and "perception" in the month leading up to the midterms.

    If that doesn't cut it, then look at the news headlines come tomorrow. If all the incumbents are thrown out, the headlines will be about the anti-incumbent wave, and both parties in trouble. If the dems lose Murtha's old seat, the talk will focus on their upcoming beating in the fall, without any hope of recovery. Same goes for the split vote contest in Hawaii. I'll bet you my bottom-dollar that polls will somehow materialize-from somewhere-to back up each of these points, whichever ones become reality.


    It's all, all, very much psychology. I can't read the crowd like a book, but I can identify trends, and my gut tells me: dem losses in November paralleling GOP losses during Reagan's first term, with an Obama re-election-and Congressional gains-in '12.

    In reality, the month before is what counts. It's anybody's guess until then.

    Peace,

    V-03
  18. Jabba-wocky Chosen One

    Member Since:
    May 4, 2003
    star 8
    KK, weekly tracking polls some half a year in advance of the actual elections, too. Much more relevant for projecting long term is trying to read and project from current political trends, to see what the mood of the country might look like in November. Simply picking the current state of things, and saying, improbably "Imagine nothing at all changes" doesn't really serve much.

    And as it happens, there are a number of reasons to find fault with your analysis. While there is significant anger over healthcare, polling has consistently showed that solid majorities oppose the attempts to repeal the law. Meanwhile, the Democratic efforts at financial reform are hugely popular, as seen by the increasingly tough bill that's emerging, and the abysmal opinion polling on major financial firms. Likewise, while unemployment remains high, both GDP and job growth are solidly positive--two trends that economists expect only to strengthen in the coming months. Reagan similarly demonstrated hugely from showing that he was "turning things around" even though the economy had not entirely recovered as of yet.
  19. JediSmuggler Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Jun 5, 1999
    star 5
    Rasmussen has done weekly polls - and the support for repealing the health care law is anywhere from 54-58%, a pretty solid majority. The support for a law like Arizona's 1070 is at at 55% among likely voters. Again, 55% is a solid majority.

    What polls have indicated opposition to repeal?
  20. DeathStar1977 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Jan 31, 2003
    star 4
    Dammit. I had an awesome post, then I accidentally switched websites...ugh.

    Anyway, here's the gist of it...

    Mr44

    Agree, he's just making himself look more and more foolish.

    V03

    Very well said, one disagreement. Reagan crushed the competition, but I think the modern GOP has corrupted his outlook and legacy. I do especially agree with the notion that when one pushes too far, they become a footnote...too much push from social conservatives and they start looking like the 60s left.

    KK

    Thank you for the new link.

    I do think there is nothing wrong with prognostications this far out, particularly ones that are fairly mild. It's not like KW or anyone else is saying the Democrats will increase their majority to 70 in the Senate.

    New poll shows slight shift to the Democrats:

    http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5ikGZnOYxsIUYi7hRPqquhcLO7g7wD9FN54G00

    Again, point being that it's still close enough in the polls, and far enough away until November, that such reasonable prognostications of relatively mild losses by the Democrats are not far fetched.
  21. DeathStar1977 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Jan 31, 2003
    star 4
    JS

    My understanding is that there is opposition to health care reform from liberals as well, mainly for not going far enough. I doubt it will be repealed and I do think that as elements of the law are implemented (and many elements of the law do poll well), opposition will decrease.

    However, I do agree with the following:

    The support for a law like Arizona's 1070 is at at 55% among likely voters.

    I think widespread condemnation of the law is mellowing. I think a lot of people really resented the cries of racism towards the people of Arizona. I still disagree with the law, but Arizona bears the brunt of illegal immigration, and the federal government has done virtually nothing to help them. Obama needs to pick up where Bush attempted (rightfully I would add) in terms of immigration reform.
  22. kingthlayer Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Jun 7, 2003
    star 4
    For everyone who thinks health care reform is going to be the big midterm election issue, you will be disappointed. Nobody is even talking about HC reform anymore.. it has been totally pushed aside by the immigration controversy in Arizona, which was then shoved off by the oil spill. And I bet by the time November rolls around, that story will have been pushed aside by something else.

    The anti-Democratic anger from mid-late 2009 has become general anti-incumbent anger. Rand Paul won the KY primary today, and we'll see where the chips fall with Lincoln and Specter. All Congressman should be holding onto their hats in this kind of political climate. The Democrats will definitely lose seats, but to say that they are going to lose Congress at this point is just plain sloppy analysis.
  23. DeathStar1977 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Jan 31, 2003
    star 4
    Anyone else find it ironic that in an anti-establishment/anti-incumbent environment, that the big winner today thus far, Rand Paul, won mainly because of his Dad?

  24. Blue_Jedi33 Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Aug 12, 2003
    star 5
    The Rand Paul primary win is significant, it has been reported that when he wins in the general, his father will pass the torch of liberty to him and he could very well run for President in 2012. And as the Paul supporters have been constantly strengthening there positions at the local county levels, don't rule it out.
  25. darthdrago Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Dec 31, 2003
    star 4
    Arlen Specter's been defeated in the Pennsylvania primary. Definite blow to the Dems: unless Joe Sestak wins it all in November, the loss of this seat + the loss of Specter's decades of experience will make for a more difficult 2011.
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