2010 Election Thread - Results

Discussion in 'Archive: The Senate Floor' started by Lowbacca_1977, May 17, 2010.

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  1. Asterix_of_Gaul Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Sep 13, 2007
    star 5
  2. LtNOWIS Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    May 19, 2005
    star 4
    For redistricting purposes, the big states are what matters. The GOP is likely to win in Florida, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Illinois, which are big prizes. Losing California shouldn't be too bad, because the districts are drawn there to protect incumbents rather than for partisan advantage; they didn't have a chance in New York.

    I personally find ridiculously drawn district boundaries quite distasteful and ugly, but none of the states I just mentioned could get any worse in that area.

    Governorships are also important because governors can appoint Senate vacancies, like they did for Obama, Clinton, and Biden's replacements. Also, popular governors are potential candidates for other offices.

    Next January, the GOP should have Brian Sandoval and Susana Martinez as governors, as well as Marco Rubio in the Senate. All of them should have a lot of future potential, since they're Hispanics from swing states.
  3. kingthlayer Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Jun 7, 2003
    star 4
    I think the Democrats will win the Florida governorship.
  4. Jabbadabbado Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Mar 19, 1999
    star 7
    Mine was the 16th electronic ballot cast in my precinct. I waited an extra 4 minutes to get the touch screen. The machine next to me was already having problems at 6:30 in the morning. We had a steady stream of voters in the morning rush hour phase, about average I'd say for a midterm election, my third at this precinct. One voter showed up in the right precinct but wasn't in the roster - a quick phone call determined he was still on the roster at his old precinct, so one malfunctioning machine and one misplaced voter for the 15 minutes or so I spent at the polls.
  5. Vaderize03 Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Oct 25, 1999
    star 5
    Smuggler, your overarching predictions for the Senate are a welcome laugh on a busy morning at work :).

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    I don't think Toomey has a comfortable lead in PA at all. It is dead even going in to the election today, and Sestak has a reputation as a closer. He was surging but still behind in the primary according to polls, and edged out Specter.

    I have seen far, far more democratic lawn signs in my general area than GOP ones, certainly more than one would have guessed based on what the pundits are saying.

    I guess we'll know in the next 24 hours. Of course, then the lawsuits for the "too close to call" elections will begin.

    A report a saw on cable yesterday has the dems with a battle-ready plan to call a summit with the GOP House leadership to find common ground and areas for compromise a'la Bill Clinton. It will be interesting to see if the Republicans are willing to reach out, or simply block everything as an electoral strategy.

    Blocking will backfire in 2012, IMHO. It didn't work for Gingrich, it won't work for Boehner.

    Peace,

    V-03
  6. DarthKarde Jedi Grand Master

    Member Since:
    Jun 28, 2002
    star 5
    You have a very strange definition of "dead even". Not only has Toomey led in almost every poll since the beginning of this race but there have been 8 polls in the past week and they average out to a 6 point lead for him. If Toomey doesn't win then the polling companies have seriously screwed up this race from start to finish.

    PS: How many House seats do you think that the Republicans will pick up in PA?

    Looking from a distance I would say that the 3rd, 7th, 8th, 10th, 11th and 12th all look vulnerable to one degree or another.
  7. Lowbacca_1977 Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Jun 28, 2006
    star 6
    With luck, California will be fixing the redistricting thing for Congress today.
  8. Ramza JC Head Admin and RPF Manager

    Administrator
    Member Since:
    Jul 13, 2008
    star 7
    Oh, right, that was this year, wasn't it?:oops:
  9. Lady_Sami_J_Kenobi Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Jul 31, 2002
    star 6
    Well, once the election is over, I get to take down my California state seal with *Arnie as Conan the Barbarian replacing Athena!

    *Can't spell his last name.

    I don't do predictions, folks. I just go with the flow.
  10. kingthlayer Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Jun 7, 2003
    star 4
    Does anyone here believe the GOP is going to pick up 70 to 80 seats? I have heard Dick Morris saying such on Fox News, but that number seems outrageously high. I am going to bet 48-53 seats for the GOP, to give them a relatively slim majority.

  11. Lowbacca_1977 Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Jun 28, 2006
    star 6
    Goodfellas, my prediction was, I think, 65-72.
  12. Vaderize03 Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Oct 25, 1999
    star 5
    Sorry, I was referring to state polls, as well as registered voters, not likely ones.

    Toomey has maintained a slight lead in likely voters throughout, but Sestak has pulled up in many last-minute polls. It's going to come down to turnout in the Philadelphia area and suburbs. If it's high, then Sestak has a chance.

    I'm not really all that thrilled with either choice, myself.

    Peace,

    V-03
  13. Jabbadabbado Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Mar 19, 1999
    star 7
    Won't be long until polls close in Indiana and Kentucky
  14. kingthlayer Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Jun 7, 2003
    star 4
    Then again, looking at the numbers now puts things into perspective. The Democrats have 256 seats, which is a lot. The Republicans currently have 179. Even if the Democrats lost 70 seats, that still gives them 186.

    The House is very disproportionately balanced. I suppose Democrats had nowhere to go but down.
  15. Jabbadabbado Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Mar 19, 1999
    star 7
    The Republicans could have their House majority wrapped up by 8pm ET. On the other hand, there are a good dozen races that may be too close to call by then. We'll see.
  16. Mr44 VIP

    Member Since:
    May 21, 2002
    star 6
    Yeah, I think it's going to be a longer night. But then again, I agree with the modest predictions, I'm not sure a lot is going to change.

    I still say a balanced Congress is best. I don't want either party to have a super-majority, or imbalance power. Not to say that things have to be evenly matched, because then nothing gets done, but a good, solid, back and forth is nice.
  17. Ramza JC Head Admin and RPF Manager

    Administrator
    Member Since:
    Jul 13, 2008
    star 7
    Honestly, I quite agree, but they have to actually be willing to work together for that to work - which is an area both parties are pretty deficient in anymore.
  18. kingthlayer Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Jun 7, 2003
    star 4
    Well, the GOP have their first win of the evening: the governorship of Guam. Which I didn't even know existed until 2 seconds ago.
  19. KnightWriter Administrator Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Nov 6, 2001
    star 8
    I haven't seen anyone anywhere mention something that is blindingly obvious to me: Rand has won in Kentucky, and if folks like Angle and such also win, there are going to be some major gaffes committed by Republicans within the next couple years. They are gaffe prone, and they cannot avoid the media forever. They'll learn as all elected people learn, which is that the media is relentless and changes after you actually win. Sharron Angle is not a bright person, and she will commit a major mistake or two at the very least. Rand Paul will do the same. Others will do likewise.

    It doesn't take long to put two and two together to figure out who will use those mistakes in his 2012 campaign to his advantage.
  20. kingthlayer Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Jun 7, 2003
    star 4
    If the best bit of news so far for Democrats is that gaffe-prone candidates are being elected, we are in for a long night..
  21. DeathStar1977 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Jan 31, 2003
    star 4
    Republicans win Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky and Indiana.

    Democrats hold Connecticut, Delaware and West Virginia.

    Alan Grayson lost. I often liked how he voted, but his abrasive persona was a bit much.

    Watching Michael Steele, he's one of the more fascinating people in politics. He's so bad as a partisan, but when he just answers questions he's pretty good.
  22. kingthlayer Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Jun 7, 2003
    star 4
    Well, Giannoulias, Manchin and Sestak are kicking ass so far in their races. if they can hold on, it makes me optimistic about Reid.

  23. KnightWriter Administrator Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Nov 6, 2001
    star 8
    Voted, however pointlessly.
  24. Espaldapalabras Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Aug 25, 2005
    star 5
    Me too KW. The real election was this spring, and I already single handedly picked the (wrong) winner in the state legislative race. As I was telling my liberal co-worker, Democrats here in Utah are so stupid. The GOP caucus system is one where a very small group is given basically total control. Mike Lee was elected with only 3500 votes from self selected delegates. You mean to tell me that you can't find 3500 motivated Democrats throughout the state of Utah? This caucus system we have here was designed by the party bosses so that they could control the selection of candidates but make the masses feel like they had a say through the primary. Of course it backfired a bit with the tea party taking over, but I fail to see the ethical problem with sabotaging an inherent unethical system. And with how marginalized the Utah Democratic party has been, I don't see how much worse it could be for them if they just collectively disbanded and registered Republican. And really on a national level they still are.
  25. KnightWriter Administrator Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Nov 6, 2001
    star 8
    It's looking like Sestak is going to win. If he does, that's it for Republican hopes of taking the Senate. They can't win it without that seat.
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