2011 - Another Year for British Politics

Discussion in 'Archive: The Senate Floor' started by Darth_Asabrush, Dec 29, 2004.

  1. G-FETT Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Aug 10, 2001
    star 7
    Guys, lets not be sore losers because the result isn't the one you wanted.

    People stuck with FPTP because YES didn't make the case for AV. Thats democracy.
  2. Mustafar_66 Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    May 20, 2005
    star 5
    It's nothing to do with being a sore loser. Both campaigns were an absolute shambles. The No campaign was based on attacking Nick Clegg and propping up the rest on a campaign of lies. The Yes campaign centred on saying: "Look! Look how MEAN the No campaign is being!" It's not democratic when the decision is based on b******s from both campaigns and an uninformed public.
  3. FatBurt Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Jul 21, 2003
    star 5
    as I tweeted to Stephen Fry. The campaign was not based on the merits or lack of for AV. it was based on "how to we get back at Nick Clegg"

    Democracy has given the thumbs down on AV fair enough. but it's voting based on spite not issues and thats foolish
  4. G-FETT Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Aug 10, 2001
    star 7
    Personally I thought the NO to AV campaign played a blinder with their One Person One Vote rhetoric to explain FPTP juxtaposed with saying AV means multiple votes for a limited number of people.

    It was a very powerful and simple line.

    The YES campaign also scored a huge own goal when they tried to sell the whole concept as leading to a "progressive majority" that would shut the Conservatives out of power forever. How on earth do you sell "fairer" votes on the basis of shutting out millions and millions of right wing inclined voters? Refusing to share a platform with Farage was a terrible mistake.

    AV is now officially defeated anyway.
  5. SithLordDarthRichie London CR

    Chapter Rep
    Member Since:
    Oct 3, 2003
    star 8
    The NO campaign was better organised, the YES campaign didn't seem to get a look in anywhere I went.

    It wasn't really complicated, but the NO campaign made it seem as though it was (although it probably is too complex for the semi-literate Sun readers)
  6. G-FETT Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Aug 10, 2001
    star 7
    I find it extraordinary that the Conservatives GAINED seats and councils (from their 2007 high water mark) and actually WON the national share of the vote (38% for Conservative to 37% for Labour) Amazing.
  7. SithLordDarthRichie London CR

    Chapter Rep
    Member Since:
    Oct 3, 2003
    star 8
    Well, given Milliband is not a very good Labour leader who I think most don't take seriously and the fact most people are still angry at Labour, the Tories were the only party who were going to get votes seeing as everyone seems to hold the Lib Dems accountable for the current problems.

    That and most people read The Sun & Daily Mail which are pro-Conservative.
  8. Mustafar_66 Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    May 20, 2005
    star 5
    Wait until the cuts really start to bite, then we'll see the Tory support start to crumble.
  9. SithLordDarthRichie London CR

    Chapter Rep
    Member Since:
    Oct 3, 2003
    star 8
    Problem is a party in power would've made cuts, so will the public really vote out a party for it's extreme measures if they actually happen to work?
    If the dramatic cuts actually help and we start to get growth and reduce debt the Tories will act as though they are heroes.

    I think it's more likely some botch-up with the NHS or coalition fragmenting which will kill support for the government.
  10. G-FETT Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Aug 10, 2001
    star 7
    I don't think the "cuts" on there own will help Labour all that much.

    Most people realise whoever was in power major cuts would be taking place and there will be a lot of people who for all the hysteria and hand wringing are never directly affected.

    The best thing Labour can hope for is that theres a second recession, either through the fear of cuts forcing down growth or perhaps from the euro imploding and taking Europes economy down with it? America seems to be shaky and might dip back into recession at some point.

    As far as the Conservatives and Lib-Dems go, it will be a stormy period of course and at some point it seems inevitable Clegg will have to go, but the coalition will survive, if for no other reason than the Lib-Dems will leave it as long as they possibly can before they dare to face the public in a general election - Especially as they haven't got the protection AV would have afforded them.

    No general election before 2014/2015.
  11. Mustafar_66 Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    May 20, 2005
    star 5
    I dunno, the voting public are extremely fickle.

    There's no way that the backlash from the impact on the public sector will engender support for the Government either. Add to that the Liberal Democrats taking a shellacking in the polls and their major in-party rumbles, I highly doubt they'll last the full term.
    Plus, I seriously doubt that these austerity measures will help in the first place. Whilst there had to be cuts in some places, the severity is excessive. What we need is a strong opposition leader who'll hold the Government to account for its vicious cuts towards the most vulnerable in society such as the poor and the disabled, whilst letting their big business buddies get away with not paying their taxes. That'd be nice...

    God help us...
  12. G-FETT Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Aug 10, 2001
    star 7
    The only differance between the governments deficit reduction plan and Labours deficit plan in 2011 is £2bn. An extremely modest amount by anyones standards.

    However in reality, if Labour had somehow won in 2010 they would be having to cut MORE than the coalition is cutting, because a Labour win would have spooked the financial markets and they would be borrowing at a higher rate of interest which would obviously have meant even bigger cuts even sooner than the current cuts we see.

    Wait until theres a Conservative majority in 2014/2015. [face_laugh]
  13. SithLordDarthRichie London CR

    Chapter Rep
    Member Since:
    Oct 3, 2003
    star 8
    Unlikely, the shadow of Thatcher still looms over the Conservatives and people haven't forgotten yet. As much as Labour messed up, people still didn't like the Conservatives enough to give them a majority, it was simply a matter at the time of hating Labour more.

    If the Conservatives upset enough of the lower class and the elderly, fight with the London Mayor over things and damage the NHS, they will be in trouble with voters even if most of Middle England votes for them :p
  14. Mustafar_66 Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    May 20, 2005
    star 5
    Probably, but my criticism is what the Tories are doing now, not what Labour might have done in a hypothetical situation. The fact is that these cuts are hitting the worst off in society when they should be the ones that the Government should be helping.

    If the Tories couldn't win a majority at a time when everyone hated Labour and were sick to death of the sight of them, what makes you think that in 4 years time they'll be able to come through with a majority? Yes, Ed Miliband is a numpty of the highest order, but given the hatred that the Government will engender over the coming years I think a working majority is unlikely.

    And if they do, I'm leaving.
  15. G-FETT Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Aug 10, 2001
    star 7
    As we saw at the local elections, the Lib-Dem collapse actually benefits the Tories. In 2010 the Conservatives were frozen out of literally dozens of seats by Lib-Lab tactical voting. If the local elections is anything to go by that tactical voting will completely unwind in 2015 - Meaning Conservatives will be able to pick up a lot of seats from the Lib-Dems. This might be enough to take them over the line to a majority at the next election.

    It seems highly likely that we're reverting to a general "two party" scenario the like of which we've probably not seen since the 1980's. That should be good news for the Tories.

    It will, however, depend how the economy goes and how much money is avaliable to Cameron and Osborne for tax cuts in the run up to the next election. If everything goes well, I can see a situation where through the tax and benefits system they are able to move the country slightly to the right and that, along with the Lib-Dem collapse, may be enough to get them a woking majority.

    However, if the economy goes badly I would say its curtains for both coalition parties and Labour will probably win a very small majority (there are no circumstances that I can see Labour being able to win anything like Tony Blairs 1997/2001 landslide while they have Ed Miliband leading them)

    Since WW2 there have been just three general elections where there has been a swing TO the government, 1955, (October) 1974 and 1983. Will 2015 be another year when it happens?
  16. Ender Sai Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Feb 18, 2001
    star 9
    Interesting typo... ;)

    ES
  17. G-FETT Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Aug 10, 2001
    star 7
    Hey Ender, as a Aussie and coming from one of the three countries in the world that use AV, I bet you've been laughing at our AV referendum campaign haven't you? [face_laugh]
  18. Ender Sai Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Feb 18, 2001
    star 9
    Well, look, I think our preferential voting system has more advantages than disadvantages but the thing is, substantial changes to a constitution rarely get off the ground in the Commonwealth.

    (And luckily too; our last referendum hobbled the nascent Republican vote in Australia)

    The problem you will have is that the allocation of preferences in voting becomes, inevitably, as political as voting itself.

    Of course in Australia, it's provided hilarious insight into the way the Intellectual Left works - voting for the lunatic Greens over Labor as a protest, only to have the Greens direct preferences to Labor (in effect making a vote for the Labor party a labourious sulk).

    ES
  19. G-FETT Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Aug 10, 2001
    star 7
    Thats true. The Lib-Dems are now pushing for House of Lords reform having been humiliated over voting reform. I suspect HoL reform will go down equally badly with the public who want a government that concentrates on bread and butter issues rather than side issues like constitutional change.

    It appears the Libs are learning all the wrong lessons from the local elections/assembly elections/AV fiasco.
  20. G-FETT Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Aug 10, 2001
    star 7
    Anybody think this News International media csis could bring Cameron down?
  21. SithLordDarthRichie London CR

    Chapter Rep
    Member Since:
    Oct 3, 2003
    star 8
  22. DarthKarde Jedi Grand Master

    Member Since:
    Jun 28, 2002
    star 5
    It won't. If however it did what is the alternative?

    I have little time for Cameron but the coalition government is however broadly correct on economic policy while Labour remains in complete denial and opposes any attempts to address the budget deficit.
  23. SithLordDarthRichie London CR

    Chapter Rep
    Member Since:
    Oct 3, 2003
    star 8
    Yes, strangely they've become the Republican party even though they're Left-Wing
  24. SithLordDarthRichie London CR

    Chapter Rep
    Member Since:
    Oct 3, 2003
    star 8
    Transport Minister Phillip Hammond has claimed trains are now a "rich man's toy" and that he may cap fares when the High Speed 2 line to Birmingham is complete.
    He has a point, but the government does a lot of complaining about train fares and does nothing to fix them.

    Firstly - Why not properly privatise the railway? It's not private if the government pays a subsidy all the time. It might run itself much better if it was private, because it never worked when it was nationalised.

    Second - Why is it that European train networks which run the same public/private system are far cheaper and more efficient?
  25. G-FETT Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Aug 10, 2001
    star 7
    So then, what do we make of Britain using its veto on an EU treaty for the first time in history? :eek:

    Sarkozy ain't happy. ;)