2011 - Another Year for British Politics

Thing is, even if they end up with a tiny majority, that still leaves the Conservatives lacking a mandate to implement the kind of drastic cuts that are going to be needed in the coming year or so. So even with a small Tory majority I can still see a second election taking place this autumn or at the latest next spring.

The minimum I would say gives Cameron a decent mandate is a 20 seat majority on a 38% vote share. Anything less than that and I just can't see how he can implement the cuts and tax rise's that will be needed, unless some sort of unity government is formed, which seems highly unlikely.

 

Article in The Times this morning suggesting that the Tories could be about to gain the Labour heartland Sunderland Central (formerly Sunderland South) on a 12% swing. This was the seat I remember that first declared in 1997 and showed the exit poll prediction of a 180 seat Labour majority was going to be right - Would be incredible if it now went Conservative.

At the same time though the Tories are said to be struggling in parts of London and the south coast, where you would think they would be doing well? What a weird, weird election.

 

Uncertain times ahead, reflected by uncertainty in the public opinion of who to vote for.

 

Actually Sunderland Central is mostly based on the old Sunderland North constituency which a)was never quite as safe Sunderland South and b) has now had major boundary changes. The best two Labour wards in the seat have been lost in favour of more marginal wards. If you wanted to draw a Sunderland seat in a sensible fashion that the Tories could win this seat is exactly how you would draw it.

That being said it would be a major surprise for it to fall. It would probably have gone Tory in 1983 but been lost in 1987.

 

The problem I have with YouGov is that it's being backed by Murdoch, which is reason enough to hate anything.

 

Thanks for setting me right Karde.

 

YouGov isn't being backed by Murdoch. His papers are simply paying them to do polls and they have produced some of Labours most favourable polls.

 

The Tories had best take care that they don't get a minority government going and then take the fall for whatever drastic changes are put into place. That would be as wrong as Democrats getting stuck with W's bill.

 

So paying someone to do something isn't backing them?

 

Sadly, I think thats exactly whats going to happen. The worst of all worlds for the Tories. Stuck with Labours mess, but without the mandate to do anything about it.

To be fair, the Conservatives have brought a lot of it on themselves. Their campaign has been lamentable. And Cameron probably should have had someone more "authentic" than George Osborne as his shadow chancellor.

 

The Tories have struggled to break free of the looming shadow of Thatcher, however hard they try.
Frankly I think whatever goes wrong for them is a good thing, but if they are to run the country they should at least have enough of a majority to make decisions. Then it'll certainly be easy to blame them when they fail

 

My final prediction is a Tory majority of 8-16.

 

[image=http://logan-1.mirror.waffleimages.com/files/26/26bf93b19603d20aa88924670134e0ca696b209e.jpg]

lol

 

My prediction: Conservatives 10-20 seats short. Labour sub 200 seats. Lib-Dems 100+ seats.

And we're back doing it all over again in October.

 

First time I can remember a party leader being taken to hospital on election day;

Farage injured in light air crash

Although I wouldn't wish this on anybody, I must say it seems like a kind of stupid, gimicky thing to be doing on polling day?

 

Shame it didn't happen to Nick Griffin...

 

I shouldn't laugh, but I will anyways.

 

Senior Conservatives apparently briefing journalists that they think they've done enough to secure a small majority.

 

I'm hoping they'll have to eat their words later...

 

Farage will probably blame the crash on Von Rompuy.

 

Exit poll suggests Tories are 19 seats short of a majority to govern.

Never trust exit polls myself, but a Hung parliament might be a good bet.

 

So what to make of this election result?

Call the IMF!

 

I'd just like to say that watching this unfold, I'm thoroughly envious on the multiple-party factors in this.

 

Well, the Lib-Dems have had an Epic Fail. Not only did they not gain more seats, they lost a bunch also. All of Clegg's momentum counts for nothing since the party have come out worse then the previous election.

Cameron won't be happy with the result, although I'm sure he has a plan for it as this is the outcome that has been predicted for some time.

The main thing now will be whether or not Cameron goes it alone or tries to get a Coalition. I'm not sure either will work out so well for him.