2011 - Another Year for British Politics

As the Tories have taken 300+ seats, I don't see the Lib-Dems going against the will of the country and propping up Labour.

My guess is, it'll all end up with a Cameron led minority government, unable to to implement any cuts or tax rises, so we'll have some kind of economic meltdown this summer, followed by a second emergency election in October. Can't really see any other outcome.

 

I wouldn't say it was an epic fail in terms of share of the votes. They actually got more votes than in 2005, but because of the ridiculous FPTP system they lost seats. Someone, anyone, sort out this unfair, undemocratic and antiquated system.

On a personal note, I just finished doing all night live election coverage for my Journalism course and I'm operating on four hours sleep. I'm tired and shagged out and gutted that Winchester has gone blue. How can 27,000 people be so thick?

 

Thoughts (or editorals I'd never come across, myself) as to where the polling numbers for the LibDems went, and why they did so? From the U.S. two-party perspective, I'd think it was people going back to one of the top two so they could vote against they one they didn't like, but that doesn't really treat that the LibDems are only slightly behind the other two parties in support, unlike in the US where there's a huge gap between the first two parties, so multiparty thinking processes are rather foreign to me.

 

I suspect what happened is that people were impressed with Clegg in the debates and expressed approval of him personally through voting intention. Its one thing approving of someone, its quite another to actually vote for them.

 

The Lib Dems do very well in the locals, but I don't think people see them as a national party. For example my constituency (Winchester) has gone from Lib Dem to Conservative, with a new Conservative MP in Steve Brine, but the Lib Dems have just taken control of the City Council. It baffles me as to why it ends up like this, but hey ho.

 

I heard something about the Queen possibly "being activated" during this time. I'm not really sure what this means.
I assume it doesn't involve sticking a key in her back and winding her up

 

I'll never think of her maj in the same way again. I think she will stay well clear of all the horse trading until its certain who is going to be PM. I guess if things go on for days or weeks without conclusion, she might tentively start banging heads together?

Ah well, what a faintly bizzare election. Already sick of the horse trading, so no, lets not 'sort out' FPTP so we get this every time.

 

Good to see the foof, a long time member of the JC, still active on the boards.

 

You don't need to pass legislation in order to make spending cuts.

 

Maybe, but the Conservatives do not have the mandate to implement the kind of kind of cuts that are going to be needed. People will be taking to the streets and protesting. We'll get waves of strikes and riots. This parliament just does not look viable with the current economic circumstances. I'm almost certain it'll end in a second election in a few months.

My guess is the economic situation will raidly get worse this summer. The Conservatives will to come up with an austerity package and they will go to the country with it under the guise of it being the only credible plan to secure the recovery and to seek a mandate to implement it.

 

Just seen reports on the news of a late night phone call between Brown and Clegg last night where Brown was said to have tried to "dictate" and "menace" Mr Clegg.

 

I'm like the bad smell that never truly goes

Good to see, with the Euro in crisis, the british economy under pressure, the pound under pressure, and the bond markets eyeing us suspiciously, that the libs and tories seem to be having nice, leisurely discussions! If, by some miracle, they do come to an agreement (actually, i'm not sure if there really is any other viable choice), I won't be unhappy. Heck, I'm almost coming round to the idea of a referendum on alternative voting systems. At least that would get that debate out in the open. Hopefully, a change would even be defeated, burying it for ever.

 

Can you really see the Lib's and Con's working together? I can't really see it. I think Cameron and Clegg would be OK actually, but its their parties that would be the problem. I know a few Liberals and they hate Conservatives more than Labour lefties do.

 

The parties are too different, especially when it comes to Europe. I can't see them getting along for any significant length of time.

Labour & Lib-Dems would work better, they have in the past. But I don't think that will go down very well with the public.

 

Heard Paddy Ashdown on Andrew Marr this morning. Maybe a Con-Dem pact isn't out of the question?

 

As soon as the Tories didn't put something through that the Lib Dems wanted the coalition would collapse and we'd go to the polls again. I don't see why they can't see that this is what would happen.

 

They're politicians, they want power. If this is the way to have it (especially for the Lib-Dems) they will do all they can even if they hate each other.

 

Canada has had minority governments lots of time. They can work quite well.

Last year, the Liberals, NDP and Bloc decided to gang up on the Tories and bring down the government. They thought. The reaction of the electorate in the polls was so overwhelmingly negative, they backed off.

 

Oh what fun these hung parliament negotiations are.

The leaders of all parties are shown up for what they really are. Labour will do anything to hold on to power, Clegg is a backstabbing two faced creep and Cameron is just pathetic.

 

Cameron - pathetic?

Karde please!

Cameron is the most decent of all three. He should be our PM, in fact in England he would be. I really dislike the Union right now.

But I will also add that if no coalition against Labour is made, the Liberals will become unpopular and along with Labour create a situation where the Tories continue on to power for at least a decade.

Another Election is going to happen this year for me.

 

Okay lets have a quick look at the numbers.

If we assume that a) The Tories will win the delayed poll in Thirsk and Malton b) the 5 Sinn Fein MP's will not take their seats c) The Speaker and 3 Deputy Speakers will be 2 Tories and 2 Labour the number of MP's who can vote will be 641 and so 321 will be needed for a majority.

Con: 305
Lab: 256
LD: 57
DUP: 8
SNP: 6
SDLP: 3
PC: 3
Green: 1
Alliance: 1
Ind: 1

Labour and the Lib Dem's alone would muster 313 votes but the SDLP will back Labour and the Alliance will back the Lib Dems bringing them upto 317. They would also get the backing of the Green and Independent (Slyvia Hermon) on most issues. In theory that is enough for them to form some sort of rag tag government where they only need the DUP, SNP or PC to abstain in order to get a vote through the commons.

In reality that government would be so weak that it could barely govern. A few hardliners on the Labour left will have a veto on almost every vote in the Commons.

 

You can govern with a minority. It takes patience, cooperation and a minimum of arrogance.

 

None of which will happen with our politicians

 

Tories and Lib Dem's have a deal sown up.

Brown is being driven to the Palace now.

 

We're doomed.