2011 - Another Year for British Politics

Discussion in 'Archive: The Senate Floor' started by Darth_Asabrush, Dec 29, 2004.

  1. SithLordDarthRichie London CR

    Chapter Rep
    Member Since:
    Oct 3, 2003
    star 8
    Good way for Labour to win popularity & votes will be to claim they will restore forests taken by the current government.
  2. SithLordDarthRichie London CR

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    Oct 3, 2003
    star 8
  3. G-FETT Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Aug 10, 2001
    star 7
    Who's going to say yes to AV then? :D
  4. Darth_Asabrush Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    May 21, 2000
    star 5
    I am torn between a "more representational" form of voting or the current first past the post system. It would be good to have a wider sprectrum of MPs from the smaller parties and independents but I'm not a fan of the horse trading that comes with it. I like strong governments but also wish for a more independent Parliament and stronger committees. I simply don't know yet. Trying it out on the Lords is something else I'm not entirely sure about as I am a fan the unelected second chamber.

    Hmmm.....
  5. G-FETT Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Aug 10, 2001
    star 7
    Would AV boost representation from small parties, though? From what I can see its not really proportional in that way - Indeed, the only party that it seems to boost is the Lib-Dems?
  6. Darth_Asabrush Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    May 21, 2000
    star 5
    Indeed. I was speaking in more general terms as we know that AV is simply a stepping stone in the trade off within the coallition agreement.
  7. SithLordDarthRichie London CR

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    Oct 3, 2003
    star 8
    I've always got the impression that the Tories are opposed to it because they think it will prevent them from winning elections.

    In which case, I support it :p
  8. G-FETT Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Aug 10, 2001
    star 7
    Tory supporters worry about this wrongly, IMO. AV doesn't prevent majority government. If there is a big enough swing to any party they will get a majority. Look at Australia, AV does not prevent the Liberal party (Australias version of the Conservatives) from getting majorities.
  9. SithLordDarthRichie London CR

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    Oct 3, 2003
    star 8
    I don't think the Conservatives here will get a majority, they aren't popular enough. They were lucky in the last election that they happened to have the biggest party, but they needed help to get a majority. They may have won more seats, but they aren't really any more popular than the other parties. Were the lower classes to get more of a voice, the Tories may be in opposition for a long time unless Labour **** up badly like they did recently.
  10. DarthKarde Jedi Grand Master

    Member Since:
    Jun 28, 2002
    star 5
    AV will do nothing to help smaller parties get MPs elected. The main beneficiaries will be the Lib Dems who will be saved from the slaughtering that they will get at the next election under FPTP.

    A yes vote would be an utter disaster for Cameron. Large elements of the Tory party are still angry with him for not winning a majority and forcing the coalition on them. If he loses the referendum as well and makes it much harder for them ever to win a majority and makes holding their seats harder many Tory MPs will never forgive him.
  11. DarthKarde Jedi Grand Master

    Member Since:
    Jun 28, 2002
    star 5
    The reason that AV doesn't prevent majorities in Australia is because that country has a broadly two party system.
  12. Darth_Asabrush Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    May 21, 2000
    star 5
    Just to clarify as I didn't make my point very well (haven't visited in an age so a bit rusty): I'm aware that AV won't necessarily open the doors to the smaller parties but it is a stepping stone to a more representational Parliament, from a certain point of view ;) . Even though we run the risk of actually having, in some cases, even larger majorities for a single party (I think Blair would have achieved this in 2005 ? something that feels me with dread just thinking about it), one could argue that at least at a constituency level the sitting MP could be said to be more representative of his voters.

    This is a wider issue though. The first past the post system can produce strong governments but, imo, also weakens Parliament. I desire a strong executive but equally advocate a more representative and strong legislature that can, at times, do its job properly i.e. hold the government to account.

    I hate the idea of lifelong safe seats and the fact that many people just don't see voting worthwhile at all. This is one of the problems with the current system.

    I don?t currently have an answer but doing away with patronage of the upper house, getting rid of Peers who do not attend debates/votes, empowering select committees and the Commons in general, allowing MPs to call a Secretary of State or Minister from the Lords to answer questions in the Commons might be a start although completely ignores the issue of voting reform ;)
  13. G-FETT Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Aug 10, 2001
    star 7
    Actually they were very unlucky not to get a majority at the last election. I can't think of another election where a 5%+ national swing from one party to another didn't result in a pretty decent majority. OK, in terms of national share of the vote the Tories only achieved 36%, but this is the same share that Labour got in 2005 and which gave them a 66 seat majority!

    Do you think Cameron cares? As long as he remains Prime Minister for the next four and a bit years, I doubt he's particuarly bothered what happens next. ;)
  14. SithLordDarthRichie London CR

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    Oct 3, 2003
    star 8
    But his party is, and if they feel he is jeopardising their ability to get re-elected into power again, they might decide to get rid of him.
    I can't see the Coalition failing unless the Lib-Dems pull out, but they're so spineless about standing up for their party principles that I can't see it happening.
  15. G-FETT Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Aug 10, 2001
    star 7
    Neither Lib-Dems or Conservatives will do anything that might risk an early election. Both are in it for the long haul now. The have to turn the economy around and get the deficit under control before they dare go to the country again, thats a three or four year job.
  16. DarthKarde Jedi Grand Master

    Member Since:
    Jun 28, 2002
    star 5
    I suspect he wants to be in office longer than 5 years.
  17. SithLordDarthRichie London CR

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    Member Since:
    Oct 3, 2003
    star 8
    I'm sure he & the Tories want to be in office as long as possible. Given the failure of Labour and the weak leader they have I can't see them mounting much opposition unless the Coalition seriously shoot themselves in the foot (they u-turned on the forest sale before that became a fatal error).
    Problem will be come the next election when the two parties break apart. The Lib-Dems will be completely destroyed by the voting public given the unpopularity of Clegg and his unwillingness to stand up for what he believes in and given that the Tories needed their help to get a majority the whole thing could go down a similar road next time.
    The only difference may be that with a new voting system there will be more members from smaller parties for the big party to allign with.
  18. DarthKarde Jedi Grand Master

    Member Since:
    Jun 28, 2002
    star 5
    If AV passes it won't help the smaller parties, it will save the Lib Dems.
  19. G-FETT Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Aug 10, 2001
    star 7
    Karde, if the referendum fails could you see Clegg being eviscerated by his party and the government collapsing? Or do you think they'll hang together irrespective of what happens with AV?
  20. SithLordDarthRichie London CR

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    Oct 3, 2003
    star 8
    This coalition has shown the Lib-Dems only care about staying in power and are prepared to give up what they believe in if it means staying in power. If they were really willing to give that up, I think they already would have.
  21. Darth_Asabrush Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    May 21, 2000
    star 5
    I can't see anything saving the Lib Dems at the next election.
  22. SithLordDarthRichie London CR

    Chapter Rep
    Member Since:
    Oct 3, 2003
    star 8
    They're doomed, and they brought it on themsevles.
  23. G-FETT Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Aug 10, 2001
    star 7
    I don't think the Lib-Dems will face the meltdown everyone is predicting in 2015. Most people are sensible enough to realise the Lib-Dems went with the Conservatives because thats the only decision that made sense.

    Clearly a coalition with Labour was off the table given that;

    1. Labour had been routed and Gordon Brown was despised by much of the country.

    2. A coalition with Labour would have involved a government of losers, with SNP, Plaid, Irish Nats, the Green MP All having to be brought in to join Labour and the Lib-Dems. Such a government would have collpased within weeks.

    So the Conservatives clearly had to form the next government. The Lib-Dems could have let Cameron form a minority, but given the economic situation such a minority government would have been terribly unstable and we'd almost certainly have gone back to the polls autumn 2010, which would have done untold damage to us economically.

    The Lib-Dems decision to join the Conservatives in a coalition was a bold decision, but ultimately the only decision that made sense.

    For future Lib-Dem prospects the economy is the key. If the government can get the economy going strongly I see no reason why the Lib-Dems can't have a decent result. Clearly they will lose some of their left wing and student support, but that could be offset by gaining support from more right wing inclined and floating voters. I'm not saying the Lib-Dems won't lose seats, because obviously they will, but talk of them being "doomed" is very premature I think.
  24. Darth_Asabrush Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    May 21, 2000
    star 5
    Just think that all is well with country in 2015 the Tories will get the credit and the Lib Dems will be their shield.
  25. SithLordDarthRichie London CR

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    Oct 3, 2003
    star 8
    It's not the joining with the Tories that is the big problem, it is their lack of standing-up for their party principles and what they stated in their election pledge. The Lib-Dems are seen to have sold their soul just to get power, they have lost a huge amount of respect.
    Obviously no politician really cares about the people at all, but if you're going to be a liar don't make it so obvious.

    If all is well come 2015 the Lib-Dems will say they made the right choices and it showed, if it goes wrong the Tories will blame them.