Discussion in 'Community' started by Lord Vivec, Feb 11, 2014.
Your presence is needed in the USpol thread, where everything is someone else's fault.
If that's true, then it's incredibly short-sighted and immoral. Are you telling me that South Korea, Japan, America, and Europe combined can't come up with the money to at least feed North Korea's population and keep them alive? And that leaving those North Koreans under that gulag of a country, and having freaking nukes pointed at us, is somehow preferable to spending the money to take care of refugees?
Anyway, I doubt that our diplomats and policymakers are insane enough to pass up on such an opportunity if it really existed. I think such an opportunity probably doesn't exist because Kim Jong-Un isn't interested in abdicating his throne. He can't use personal well-being as an excuse because that's something we can guarantee him should he cooperate. Which goes back to my original point...I think Kim is in this not because he's worried about his survival, but because he likes being a god, so much so that he'll risk death to hold on to it.
Oh, hey, the Korean War is over: https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/...index.html?sr=twCNN042718undefined1000AMStory
There's no official treaty yet (the U.S. needs to be involved), but it's a stated goal, which is great.
For the record, I do NOT credit Trump for this. His behavior may have prompted a “let’s sit down and talk this out before the crazy American does something stupid” moment between Korea’s two leaders, but that’s no way to run foreign policy (especially in regards to a nuclear power).
Here’s to hoping this leads to real peace.
From Kim's uncharacteristic candidness (for a DPRK official) about the state of his country, I wonder if he and/or his advisers have been waiting for an opportunity like this. He successfully consolidated his power and made the world (the U.S. especially) take his country more seriously, so it is now time for constructive dialog that will improve the DPRK in the future, economically and diplomatically. There is also the crippling effects of sanctions and the cool relationship with the PRC to consider in North Korea's recent moves. I certainly would not credit Trump's flailing brinkmanship with bringing Kim to the table, but his acceptance of a meeting with his fellow head of state may have been a real step toward progress.
I mean, I suspect he realized their nuclear tests could lead to a major disaster. Possibly already has led to some. China would not be okay with that. Kim had made his point that he *could* make nukes if he wants to. Now he gets to look magnanimous for giving up something he probably knew he couldn't sustain.
Hopefully he sticks to it with Chinese pressure.
Do we even know what's been agreed to yet?
There was an article in The Guardian the other day about the release of a study that suggested that North Korea's main nuclear test site had partially collapsed, and had become too dangerous to use.
So it's not too outlandish a theory.
No matter what the main cause for this sudden push towards reconciliation is though, the fact that the Korean war could officially be over by the end of the year is fantastic news. I truly hope that the peace efforts stick the landing.
This pretty much sums up my thoughts: https://economist.com/news/asia/21741238-moon-jae-and-kim-jong-un-seem-have-got-house-fire
So yeah, they're saying nice things and all right now, but so far it just looks like empty talk. In order for that peace treaty to happen, somebody is going to have to give up something...and if they don't then we're right back where we started.
It's completely reasonable for the DPRK to demand that foreign troops leave the peninsula as part of dialing down tensions. Despite the impression U.S. imperialism gives, it is not reasonable to station a large force in a foreign country in peactime. I don't think the people in Washington would be too happy if 20,000+ Russian or Chinese troops were 40 miles from the border in Mexico.
Absolutely. If Korea wants us there, that's one thing. But if they feel safe and want us out to promote a better feeling of real peace and an end to the war, we should see that as a victory and move out.
Historians are going to have a heck of a time figuring out how we went from the brink of possible nuclear war to possible peace in the Korean peninsula in over four to five months.
Unless it's true that they had a mini nuclear disaster and realized further tests would mean something like a full on melt down.
Well regardless of whether having U.S. troops in South Korea is a good thing or not, it would be a major development if they were to leave. Since this hasn't happened yet, all we're just left with a photo-op and not a deal...and as such peace probably isn't about to break out on the peninsula.
The most meaningful result of any possible peace treaty would be what it means for economic ties between the North and South, if diplomatic ties were semi-normalized. If they begin to work together economically, and eventually even phase-in some freedom of movement (the North would never agree to too much for too many all at once, or there'd be a mass exodus, but even something like top and mid-level NK government officials being able to get a visa to the South fairly regularly, and the same for the South into the North), then North Korea could slowly transition along a path similar to the PRC's after Mao and his Cultural Revolution. That's the kind of outcome to hope for with any peace treaty. It would be nice if the sides would stop taking pot-shots at each other every couple years, but other than that, they've been living under an effective peace treaty. What really matters is how it affects the average North Korean.
Well China's been telling North Korea for a while now "hey you should follow our example" to no avail. The problem is that the North Korean regime has been abusing its people for so long, it can no longer afford not to.