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Asteroid impact

Discussion in 'Archive: The Senate Floor' started by SuperWatto, Jul 25, 2010.

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  1. SuperWatto

    SuperWatto Chosen One star 7

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    Sep 19, 2000
    [image=http://www.buyerkeywordsgenerator.com/images/comet-strike-p4.jpg]

    I'll be dead. Amsterdam is below sea level, and will not survive a tsunami.
    Lowbacca will be dead. He lives near the San Andreas fault line.
    Jabbadabbado will be alright, until winter. Then he'll probably starve.

    These and other fun stories will take place if a comet or large meteor hits the Earth. Or will they?

    U.S. Congress is on it.
    A new bill introduced to Congress proposes establishing a government-sponsored commission to study the threat of a major space rock collision with Earth and how prepared we are ? as a country and a planet ? to face such a danger.
    They're talking.

    ESA is on it.
    Don Quijote is an asteroid investigation, geophysical characterisation and deflection technological experiment mission.

    They're investigating. Launching next year.

    The Russians are on it.
    Russia?s top space researchers will hold a closed-door meeting to plan a mission to deflect 99942 Apophis, an asteroid that will fly close to Earth two decades from now.

    They're actually planning to deflect.

    So, it seems we can all relax. Our governments are taking care of this. But then you get old space paranoid Carl Sagan, who has expressed concerns about deflection technology: that any method capable of deflecting impactors away from Earth could also be abused to divert non-threatening bodies toward the planet. Considering the history of genocidal political leaders and the possibility of the bureaucratic obscuring of any such project's true goals to most of its scientific participants, he judged the Earth at greater risk from a man-made impact than a natural one. Sagan instead suggested that deflection technology should only be developed in an actual emergency situation.
    Well, great, Carl. Especially when you realize that we need years for a coordinated effort, while the warning time for comet impact is unlikely to be more than a few months.

    Now I don't know what to think, who to trust, and who to listen to. You?
     
  2. LostOnHoth

    LostOnHoth Chosen One star 5

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    Feb 15, 2000
    I remain 100% confident that America will save the world.
     
  3. Kyptastic

    Kyptastic VIP star 5 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

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    Sep 10, 2005
    There's some BP oil rig technicians who are probably looking for work...


    My big concern with this is if they screw up these tests efforts and place us in either more danger.
     
  4. SuperWatto

    SuperWatto Chosen One star 7

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    Sep 19, 2000
  5. Jabbadabbado

    Jabbadabbado Manager Emeritus star 7 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

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    Mar 19, 1999
    We don't have the technology to divert asteroids yet, but what does seem clear is that the Hollywood solution - nuking the asteroid - isn't really a viable option. But neither is the gravity tractor at present. For any amount of warning we would get of an imminent collision with a smallish asteroid, maybe we would get enough warning to figure out where the most damage would occur and evacuate.
     
  6. VadersLaMent

    VadersLaMent Chosen One star 10

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    Apr 3, 2002
    We do have the technology now to deflect asteroids, the problem is one of time. If we had a few months at least ahead of time we can do it. A few weeks I doubt we could do anything about. If one were coming tomorrow we are doomed.
     
  7. Jabbadabbado

    Jabbadabbado Manager Emeritus star 7 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

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    Mar 19, 1999
    It's more that we understand the physics of how to do it. That's a long way from making the technology operational.
     
  8. Alpha-Red

    Alpha-Red Chosen One star 7

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    Apr 25, 2004
    Asteroid impacts are a myth propagated by alarmist scientists who disregard all evidence in order to push their biased agendas. Even if asteroids could destroy all life on Earth, the probability of such an event is nil. I call upon my fellow Americans to reject this bill and the myth of global warm....I mean, asteroid impacts.
     
  9. Jabbadabbado

    Jabbadabbado Manager Emeritus star 7 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

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    Mar 19, 1999
    There's a big difference between the probability of a life-ending Chicxulub-sized event and something like the Tunguska meteor, which may be a hundred year event. Something like that over an urban area could kill millions, even if the species isn't threatened. The earth is littered with craters less than 50,000 years old. It should be enough to induce planning or at least theorizing about asteroid avoidance that a city like LA or Chicago could be destroyed.
     
  10. SuperWatto

    SuperWatto Chosen One star 7

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    Sep 19, 2000
    I assumed Alpha was making fun there. Was he serious?

    Something will threaten Earth sooner or later. Might be in ten years, might be in ten thousand years. The question is: do you care? I sure do. If not me, if not my children, mankind needs to be protected.
     
  11. Alpha-Red

    Alpha-Red Chosen One star 7

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    Apr 25, 2004
    Yeah, I was just kidding :p
     
  12. Jabbadabbado

    Jabbadabbado Manager Emeritus star 7 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

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    Mar 19, 1999
    As you know, I'm not very bright.
     
  13. SuperWatto

    SuperWatto Chosen One star 7

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    Sep 19, 2000
    Doesn't matter, as long as you know you're not bright! Right?
     
  14. Jabbadabbado

    Jabbadabbado Manager Emeritus star 7 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

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    Mar 19, 1999
    Dunning-Kruger effect! It's important to be smart enough to be able to adequately assess your own incompetence.

    Anyway, I wonder how long it would really take the U.S. or an international consortium to build a launchable gravity tractor and how much it would cost. VLM insists we have the technology, but what does that really mean in practice?
     
  15. SithLordDarthRichie

    SithLordDarthRichie CR Emeritus: London star 9

    Registered:
    Oct 3, 2003
    Last I heard, the closest asteroid likely to hit Earth won't do so until 2880. I'll be long dead by then and the Human race may well be too.

    I would think we're far more likely to destroy ourselves or be wiped out by some awesome Earhly feat of nature (volcano, hurricane, ice age etc) than we are to be struck by an asteroid of sufficient size to cause any significant damage to us.

    But nothing lasts forever. Even the Dinosaurs, the most dominant species ever to exist (by virture of being the apex species on the Earth for the longest time to date), were finally vanquished by a single strike from an extra-terrestrial force.

    That is all it will take, one strike. Even our greatest technology still fails to protect us from the extremes of nature's force. No matter what we do or how adaptable we are and how numerous our numbers, nature will always find a way to get rid of us when the time comes.
     
  16. Alpha-Red

    Alpha-Red Chosen One star 7

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    Apr 25, 2004
    Well....better asteroids than gamma ray bursts I guess. By the way, don't we already have a doomsday scenario thread?
     
  17. Lowbacca_1977

    Lowbacca_1977 Chosen One star 7

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    Jun 28, 2006
    The fault ain't gonna kill me. Not gonna be crushed where I am. Nice part about earthquakes, the killing thing isn't the quake, it's the buildings.


    On topic, I'd first of all say that I'd not act as though we've got all that many craters that are younger than 50,000 year mark. There's 16 on the Earth Impact Database, so a bit under 10% of the ones we know about. Though the flip side is that when Shoemaker-Levy hit Jupiter, that was thought to be a once in a century sort of event, but in the last two years, Jupiter has been hit two more times by smaller objects that are still quite prominent. So... that may be the sign this happens more than we realise.

    The big trouble isn't the stuff we know about, it's that we don't know about everything, and so we really have to be prepared for objects that have escaped detection until they're on their way in rather than the ones we know well. Similarly, the chance of known objects changing course is also a big problem. For example, why we were worried about Apophis.
    We get off planet, and we make it much harder for us to all get taken out in one go. Though I do still think having deflection strategies are a good thing, ultimately, because I'd rather have the technology to save lives than avoid it in case it is misused.
     
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