Discussion in 'Community' started by Katana_Geldar, Feb 22, 2012.
Abbotts not much better, Ender. Why don't they bring back Turnbull?
Under Turnbull in 2009 the Libs primary vote was in the toilet as the party base revolted against his more progressive ideas and support for Labor policies such as Rudd's climate change legislation.
Abbott meanwhile has brought the Libs/Nats to their best primary vote in years and seems a near certainty to win the next election. Granted, Labor has helped a lot there, but Abbott has done a fair bit of legwork himself in getting them to this point as well.
Really, there's no contest here. The Libs have zero interest in bringing back Turnbull under such circumstances. Why would they? Switching to Turnbull in such circumstances would just draw parallels to the Rudd-Gillard switcheroos which would rob the Coalition of some of it's best arguments against Labor.
I think Turnbull has the potential to be a future leader but it'll be after the Coalition is already in government, not before.
the people who want turnbull back are people who would never vote liberal. the people who DON'T want turnbull back are the people in the partyroom and those who would otherwise vote liberal.
I was out here in Canby last night, had a function to go to at APH right when the spill was on. Afterwards, walking along the office corridors, the vast majority of them were lit because people were still inside.
And then a few hacks showed up at the hack bar for drinks afterwards.
Did it stop the Labor PMs prior to Whitlam from getting elected?
...as I recall, the people who wanted Turnbull in the room were less than those who didn't want Turnbull in the room by one vote. Much closer than the count between want/don't want on Julia Gillard.
simplistic guff from fantasists who don't know what they're talking about. turnbull is just as much of a micromanager as rudd, and just as convinced of his own intellect. he was supported as the least worst option by people who are generally inclined to be conservative. they didn't think joe or tony could do a better job and in tony's case he was in the wrong faction as far as many turnbull supporters were concerned. now tony is doing an excellent job comparative to the ALP there is literally no need to change. unless the polls change dramatically, but i highly doubt that the 2PP vote is going to change enough for the Libs to start running scared - though the preferred PM is probably going to change a bit.
Did I get the vote count wrong, or not? Or are you just going to call that "simplistic guff" too?
Saintheart is correct - there was only a single vote separating Turnbull and Abbott in Dec 2009. Such was the despair within the Libs at the time that it went right to wire despite Turnbull's problems. It's hard to imagine now, but Abbott wasn't expected to do great things when he became leader - his brief was quite simply 'save the furniture'.
Which is why continued talk of 'why don't they just put Turnbull back in - he's more popular in the polls' is fantasy. The Libs appreciate the work Abbott has done to bring them from certain annihilation to almost-victory in 2010 and almost-certain victory this year. They're not going to dump him just because of some popularity polls - in the end the only one that really matters (aside from the election itself) is the primary vote and subsequent 2PP, and they're miles ahead there.
Um, I'm a Liberal and I want Turnbull back.
So, she got the boot?
Well hi. I'm a Scorpio, I think we are a match. Do you like long walks and longer love making sessions?
Shhh, we're not allowed to mention the fact Gillard was a woman.
The feminist vanguard is already saying it's all because Rudd is a bully and was against wimminz. The one they roped in to talk to ABC radio about it this morning was just about frothing at the mouth.
I do now!
Come and have a blow of my didgeridoo. Because it do doo.
I'm a swing voter and I'd vote for Turnbull. As it stands, I'm not inclined to vote for either major party (just as I wasn't for 2010), but can't stand the minors either.
I just can't justify Labor's existence and collectivism.
It represents the dominant interest of an absolute minority, which would be adorable if it weren't more than a century out of date.
Plus the one size fits all collectivism is something I can't abide.
Stephen Smith has pulled the pin. That brings us to 6 seats the ALP now has to win with no incumbents in the seat, or outright from the independents. Not to mention they have to find another poor sod to take on the rabid ADF fanboys who continue to insist ADFA has a sexual molestation rate lower than the Catholic Church.
To be fair, ADFA doesn't promote kiddie shagging.
I don't see how Rudd can win this. I mean, the Labor brand is toxic; the Liberal attack add is perfect proof of that.
DERRRRP. To state that fact about December 2009 is not the part that is simplistic guff. The simplistic guff is asserting that it is in ANY WAY relevant to now.
Nailed it. Case closed. Done deal. Turnbull is a goddamn ex-parrot as far as the leadership is concerned.
I hope you're cool with your membership funds going towards [insert loony here]'s campaigns, because it's not going to happen. The Libs want to lock up the right vote and capture the populist swing vote in the middle who are attracted to pork-barrelling. You don't get someone really rich like Turnbull when many voters consider a lot of his political positions to simply be Labor lite. He's an intellectual. They don't fare well in Australian politics.
People who want Turnbull to lead the Libs are like the Australian Politics equivalent of the poor souls in the EU/EVII discussion thread who still think the EU will be relevant. And I say this without a trace of mockery because I was once firmly in both camps.
Are you capable of rational and reasonable response, or is it a nervous tic or something? Put it this way: Kevin Rudd isn't the first to come back after being turfed by his party. The other one who pulled that off was your poster boy, Menzies. If this whole mess tells us anything, it's that three years is a long, long time in politics.
Abbott is not going to get booted as PM in favour of Turnbull. Turnbull MAY have a chance of becoming leader again but it will only be in opposition. The Libs cycle through leaders in opposition but rarely in government. But sure, keep thinking that just because something isn't impossible it's likely and that there's some sort of natural law which suggests that just because Turnbull was a leader he will be again. Anyone with ties to the Libs will tell you the same thing.
And to my mind this is one of the things that is hurting their membership numbers in the under 35-ish region. For those who are under about 21 the more liberal positions of Labor on certain key issues to that demographic (environment, refugees, climate change) are what attract them to Labor if they aren't Greens supporters. But after that shine starts to wear off and they learn more about how the party actually runs, they realise it's counter to this generation's way of life and ideals. And then you end up with people like me who are not conservative enough to be staunch Liberal supporters; won't blindly support Labor either because as a party they are screwed up; shake their heads and laugh at the Greens; and are more than a little scared that people like Clive Palmer, Bob Katter or Pauline Hanson might be/are even a part of Parliament let alone have a power base with a party and multiple seats in either house.
You are right, the Liberals have rarely cycle through leaders when in Government. In fact, Billy McMahon is the only person to have taken the leadership of the Liberals while in Government by a spill. Even with Labor, it's only been in their last 2 times at governing have they had this occur.
But in all 3 changes by Labor, it's been because of horrendous poll numbers while there was a successor in the wings that either enjoyed popular support, or factional/partyroom support. Both Fraser and Howard enjoyed a reasonably high level of support from moderate voters and neither had deputies or back-benchers who enjoyed either high levels of public or back room support.
Abbott has had to work hard at gaining moderate support and most of it has been off the back of the ineptitude of the Government. Whether he can retain this under a strong threat from Rudd in the short term (the next 12 months) is going to be the defining moment. He does have to contend with the fact that in nearly every opinion poll, Turnbull polls higher than he does as preferred Liberals leader. As can be seen with this whole affair with Rudd, that doesn't in and of itself mean that it is an automatic change as Rudd enjoyed a substantial lead over Gillard for years but not more than a third of the part back room wanted him back to the point that attacks were levelled of the sort reserved for the other side of parliament. But it also does show that given the right push, the back room will revolt and follow the popular opinion.
Is it DEFINITE that Turnbull will be able to become leader while in Government? No. But it is a possibility. It's not a strong one, and he has more hurdles to overcome than Rudd did in order to do so. But it is something that has more chance of happening than say Wyatt Roy becoming the next leader.
Again, though, polling higher as preferred Liberal leader in general means nothing. The data that matters is a) how well he polls amongst people who actually vote Liberal and b) whether amongst swing voters it would make them change their vote. If I had a dollar for every time I'd heard an ALP member friend of mine gushing over how great Turnbull is, in spite of the fact they wouldn't vote Liberal if their life depended on it...
Turnbull has appeal amongst the political class because he's intelligent, well-read, refined, humorous, incisive and a generally canny operator. He doesn't have appeal with Joe Blow in Western Sydney, which is where the battle lies. It's all of us, university-educated, bookish/nerdy, and a tad idealistic and high-minded, to whom he appeals. Not like Tony Abbott who appeals to people on the basis of their hip pocket and their hip pocket alone. It's working a treat.