"Awards" Season Is Around the Corner--Post your predictions!

Amendment: If it wins, it'll be because the other two didn't. Still, the Oscar pool is overall getting stronger as the year goes on. I'll have to see some of the other strong contenders.

 

Finding Nemo- animated awards
Return of the King, Best Picture/Visual Effects
Seabiscuit, Best Picture, Actor, Supporting actors

 

Gooding Jr. is going for the Best Actor Oscar for Radio, since his supporting Oscar for Jerry McGuire wasn't enough.

Crowe's a lock for Master & Commander, and I think the movie will get Best Picture. It looks like a steaming pile, but it seems the Academy gives the award to over-inflated epic movies. Fantasy & Sci-Fi are not in their form to give Oscars to, but if ROTK gets Best Picture (I'm sure it would at least be nominated; as the last two films have), the Award will be more of a "lifetime acheivement" gesture to P. Jackson, celebrating the merits of the Trilogy, as opposed to the individual film. The Academy is very tricky this way.

I didn't know Eastwood directed Mystic River, that pretty much means he's going home with an award. Penn's definitely going to get nominated for Best Actor (again), and it's likely he'll get it, to appease him after failing with I Am Sam

Kidman & Hopkins always get a nod by the academy, and they're increasing their chances, becoming an almost unstoppable entity, by both starring in The Human Stain together.

I have no interest in seeing any of these films, with maybe the exception of ROTK. I thought Murray was fantastic in Lost in Translation, but I don't think the film will get even a mention. i'd like to see Nemo get the Best Animated Oscar, since I don't really see any other animated pics for it to compete with (Besides Brother Bear; Disney vs. Disney seems kind of odd).

Tarantino will get bupkiss for Kill Bill; in fact, I think his non-stop violent epic was his middle finer up at the Academy.

Remember, people. This is the same Academy that gave Chicago a Best Picture Oscar last year, while The Royal Tennenbaums only received a screenwriting nomination. Lynch didn't get Best Director for Mulholland Drive, while the film took home the Palm D'orr at Cannes. This looks like a really cruddy year for film.

Oh yeah, and Billy Crystal, Steve Martin, or Whoopi Goldberg will MC, annoying the crap out of me. I love and hate watching the Oscars.

 

Best Picture Oscar noms:
Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (winner)
Mystic River
Big Fish
Cold Mountain
Master and Commander or The Last Samurai or an indie hit such as Lost in Translation

Best Animated Picture Oscar: Finding Nemo

Best Picture Drama Golden Globes: Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

Best Picture Musical or Comedy Golden Globes: Finding Nemo

Best Actor Musical or Comedy Golden Globes nominations:
Bill Murray Lost in Translation(winner)
Jack Black for School of Rock
Johnny Depp for Pirates of the Carribean
Hugh Grant for Love Actually
Paul Giamatti for American Splendor

(Any one of the above can be substitued for Jack Nicholson in Something's Gotta Give or maybe, just maybe, (if there is justice) Will Ferell for Elf (Hey it could happen! Adam Sandler got a nom last year)

Best Visual Effects Oscar Nominations: Return of the King (winner)
Pirates of the Carribean
Matrix: Revolutions.

Best Actor noms:
Sean Penn for Mystic River (winner)
Bill Murray for Lost in Translation
Tommy Lee Jones in the Missing
Russell Crowe (the academy loves him) in Master and Commander
Ben Kingsley in The House of Sand and Fog

Best Actress noms:
Naomi Watts for 21 Grams (winner)
Nicole Kidman for Cold Mountain
Cate Blanchett for Veronica Guerin
Julia Roberts for the Mona Lisa Smile
Jennifer Connelly in the House of Sand and Fog

Best Supporting Actor noms:
Tim Robbins for Mystic River (winner)
Kevin Bacon (yes he can act) in Mystic River
Sean Astin in Return of the King
Albert Finney for Big Fish
Bill Nighy in Love Actually

Best Supporting Actress noms:
Jessica Lange for Big Fish (winner)
Marcia Gay Harden for Mystic River (it would be pretty funny if she won again)
Holly Hunter for Thirteen
Scarlet Johanson for Lost in Translation
Hope Davis for American Splendor

Best Director noms:
Peter Jackson (winner)
Anthony Minghella for Cold Mountain
Clint Eastwood for Mystic River
Tim Burton for Big Fish
Peter Weir for Master and Commander

Adapted Screenplay noms:
Return of the King
Cold Mountain
Big Fish
Mystic River (winner)
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World

Original Screenplay noms:
Finding Nemo
Love Actually
School of Rock p)
The Station Agent
Lost in Translation(winner)

Best Cinematography: Return of the King

 

How can you say that if ROTK gets the Best Picture Oscar it will be just to give Peter Jackson his Oscar without even seeing the film. I don't believe you saw Master and Commander yet either, since the movie comes out on Friday. By the way, ROTK is the best of the LOTR books. There is no reason why it shouldn't win, considering how great the books are.

 

it would be a dream come true to see Johnny Depp win an Oscar (or even be nominated!) for best actor in PotC .. he really is the most gifted actor in Hollywood, imho. i've seen a lot of his movies and i really think that his talents are underappreciated

 

Ultimate Fett, RotK =/= Drama. Please try watching the Oscars and Golden Globes, kthxbye.

Groovy

 

Best Picture
LotR:RotK [following the trend; it's odds of winning are pretty good, given public sentiment]
Mystic River [Clint Eastwood + strong drama = nomination]
Lost in Translation [a dark horse, but favored one]
Cold Mountain [big source material, big names, strong buzz]

Possibilities: The Last Samurai (...looks like crap to me, but whatever), Big Fish (Burton's first real contender), Master and Commander, In America (director of, what, My Left Foot and In the Name of the Father right?), The Missing (Ron Howard), House of Sand and Fog (small family drama, in essence, with at least one powerhouse - Kingsley), American Splendor (a dark horse, an underdog, but one of the year's best)

Not going to be nominated: The Human Stain (have you seen the reviews?), Seabiscuit (released too early in the year, not to mention it is more of a solid feel good flick, though I guess that got A Beautiful Mind nominated), anything Matrix (honestly, tripe through and through), Open Range (though many say it was a solid western, well-acted and shot, it is also an early release, likely to be forgotten like Road to Perdition), Kill Bill (hah! great pulp movie, not worthy of a best picture nom)

Ugh. That's all I really want type now.

 

I actually this could be LOTR's big year. If ROTK is a s good as half the hype, then it will contender. If nothing better comes out the rest of the year, Seabiscuit will probably have top honors, with either LOTR of Matrix Revolutions going for Special effects.

 

I agree, MALICE_MIZER. The only reason the first 2 LOTR films didn't get best picture is because the Academy has been holding out for the third one.


ROTK will win, I can feel it.



...And the reason LOTR beat out AOTC for visual effects last year is because P. Jackson uses the effects better than GL. It's just that simple.

 

About VFX, the majority of the speaking CGI AOTC characters were as well done as Gollum, but since they are outlandish aliens, the 'realism' is minimal, whereas Gollum looks like a, well, skinny malnourished hobbit.

 

ROTK will be a favorite. Probably best picture and visual effects.

The Matrix movies might be up for special effects too.

 

Johnny Depp should get best actor for POTC

 

Johnny Depp should get best actor for POTC

Amen


P.S. -Jack-Sparrow- i love your bio "Smith.. or Smithy" LOL

 

Forgot to mention: Duvall should get a Supporting Actor nomination for Open Range, which was a pretty quiet picture that opened this August.

Costner redeemed himself, but I think Duvall definitely deserves one for his role--plus, he's an Oscar favorite. I'd like to see Open Range at least get one nomination (cinematography is also a possibility), but especially Duvall.

According to Newsweek, these are the best picture contenders:
1. Return of the King
2. Mystic River
3. Cold Mountain
4. Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
5. Big Fish
6. Seabiscuit

Seabiscuit hurt itself by opening in the summer, and the Academy will only take so many epics. The first three are almost a sure bet, and everything else is up for grabs.

I wanted Fellowship to win two years ago, but I watched A Beautiful Mind last night, and now I feel ashamed that I even wanted FotR to win.

I'd like to see Weir win for Director (and at the least, get a nod)--he's one of the best out there, and he's rather underrated. Witness, Truman Show, Dead Poet's Society, Gallipoli--come on, the man's a genius.

 

Best Picture:

The Lord Of The Rings: The Return of the King
The Missing
Runaway Jury
Seabiscuit
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World

My Winner: Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World.

Best Actor:

John Cusack- Runaway Jury
Johnny Depp- Pirates of the Carribean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
Viggo Mortensen- The Lord of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Russell Crowe- Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Anthony Hopkins- The Human Stain

My winner: Viggo Mortensen- The Lord of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Best Actress in a leading role:

Diane Lane- Under The Tuscan Sun
Uma Thurman- Kill Bill Volume 1
Nicole Kidman- The Human Stain
Kiera Knightley- Pirates of the Carribean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
Carrie-Anne Moss- The Matrix: Resolutions

My winner: Uma Thurman- Kill Bill: Volume 1



Best Actor in a Supporting Role:

William H. Macy- Seabiscuit
Johnny Depp- Once Upon a Time In Mexico
Andy Serkis- The Lord Of The Rings: The Return of the King
Ian McKellen- The Lord Of The Rings: The Return of the King

My winner: Johnny Depp- Once Upon a Time In Mexico

Best Actress in a Supporting Role:

Liv Tyler: Lord of the Rings: Return of the King
---------I can't think of anymore here.


I also think that POTC and ROTK will walk away with SE nods.

 

It's funny that people put up movies like LOTR: ROTK when they haven't been released yet. I guess it's all wishful thinking.

 

My prediction for the awards is that I will like very very few of the films that they give awards to. I never watch tthe awards and I never give any credence to awards printed on the cover of movie boxes.

 

I hated A Beautiful Mind. It should've lost to FOTR in every category!

And to the person who predicted Johnny Depp in Once Apon A Time In Mexico: I hope you're kidding. I mean, Johnny's great, but he's not getting a nom this year.

He may (I hope) get a Golden Globe nom for POTC, but nothing for OATIM.

 

I saw a sneak preview of The Last Samurai Saturday, and it's bound to get a number of nominations, but the one I'm cheering for is Ken Wantanabe (sp?) in the title role for Best Supporting Actor.

 

My predictions (not my personal pics, just my shots in the dark) -

Picture:
Cold Mountain
Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl

Director:
Peter Jackson - LOTR: ROTK
Anthony Minghella - Cold Mountain
Gore Verbinski - Pirates of the Caribbean
Ed Zwick - The Last Samurai

Actor:
Tom Cruise - The Last Samurai
Johnny Depp - Pirates of the Caribbean
Robert Duvall - Open Range
Anthony Hopkins - The Human Stain
Bill Murray - Lost In Translation

Actress:
Diane Keaton - Something's Gotta Give
Uma Thurman - Kill Bill
Renee Zelwegger - Cold Mountain

Supporting Actor:
Albert Finney - Big Fish
Ken Watanabe - The Last Samurai

Supporting Actress:
?

Editing:
Hulk
Kill Bill
LOTR: ROTK
Pirates of the Caribbean

 

PotC nominations in any major category will probably not happen. The academy doesn't favor movies that are *too* successful, and it opened in the summer. Sure, it might get a nod for FX or something, but any major category nomination would be extremely surprising.

I know everyone talks about Depp, but I'm sure there are five better actors in a picture this year. Besides, Sparrow isn't a challenging role. He's essentially one dimension: flamboyent. The actor noms will go to actors that have taken on really challenging roles or just roles in prominent dramas. Cruise, Law, Duvall, Murray, Hopkins, and Crowe all have better chances than Depp.

 

Hey, I hate to tell you people this, but Peter Jackson is NOT qualified to hold the title of "Good Director" Mediocre is more than generous, and "Possibly up-and-coming in half a decade or more" is probably more appropriate.

His work on LOTR is not anything that stands out as a work of editing, especially from a critical standpoint. He has introduced nothing new, has a loose grasp of even the basic classical hollywood filmmaking conventions. Now, not introducing anything new or revolutionary is not a bad thing (Steven Spielberg has built up his entire reputation on his mastery of the traditional conventions) Jackson has trouble getting his cameras moving (the most impressive scenes are all CGI, not done with real film) the editing is distorted and lacks any sort of rhythm or flow (see Armageddon or The Graduate for examples of stylistically good editing which are easy to watch) I'm running out of time, so I'll cut this short. Go take a look at the other films that Jackson has made. Most don't qualify for B-movie status. He only recieves the acclaim that he has gotten because he is involved in an expensive project which had its success already bought in distribution and advertising long before it came out. The trilogy would be much better without him. (If you are going to refute me, then please post some sort of proof. Shouting "Peter Jackson is Teh Koolest!!!111!" doesn't lend any credence to a claim that Jackson is a director deserving of a golden globe or an oscar.

Mystic River is a good bet for Best Picture. That's where I would throw my money. Regardless of whether ROTK deserves the award (its nomination was guaranteed long before FOTR came out) it shall never come to pass, because the academy is run by the type of people who shun fantasy, sci-fi, horror, and genre films, the same way that the literary elite shun anything that isn't laden with symbolism and social statements and isn't considered a "Classic". No fantasy movie will ever be given the best picture for many decades, despite how deserving it is.

Best actor: I wouldn't be surprised to see Tobey MacGuire up there. I personally hope for Hayden Christensen, because it will give a warmer reception for EPIII if he were to win. Elija Wood should crawl back to the toadstool that spawned him. He is even less deserving of the title "actor" than Jackson is of "Director". And just because Viggo Mortensen has facial hair, I don't think that she should be considered for Actor. I believe that it is the original gender, not the one she played in the given film, which would put her back into the Best Actress Category.

Supporting Actor: Ed Harris.

Supporting Actress: Nothing spectacular so far this year.

 

I seem to recall hearing that there is some sub-rule that will prevent Andy Serkis being nominated for Gollum for any award at the Oscars. Can anyone confirm or trash that one?

 

Best actor: I wouldn't be surprised to see Tobey MacGuire up there. I personally hope for Hayden Christensen, because it will give a warmer reception for EPIII if he were to win.


Sorry, but Haden's role in his movies is very lacking, you can see it in the trailers, he sounds like a whiney kid. Tobey on the other hand, should get one for Seabiscuit.